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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 740

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 12:39:36 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=49791164&message=545935425

yep nothing weird
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 6/3/2009 12:40:55 PM | message detail
oh man, these Mario stuffers just don't give up.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
HaRRicH | Posted 6/3/2009 12:41:25 PM | message detail
Yeah, I pointed out the graph with the 40% update and mentioned 11:45, but what SB says goes, really. We don't have reason not to trust it was anything more than rallying at this point.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
transience | Posted 6/3/2009 12:41:32 PM | message detail
Wait 'til 11:45.

by tainted I mean that Zelda had no right to be in that match, being the weakest game and all. this one is as legit as you can get with fourways.
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 12:41:47 PM | message detail
If my calculations are correct (and they're probably not, someone double-check), Mario 64 needs 12.47 votes per update to tie.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 12:42:07 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #203
Yeah, I pointed out the graph with the 40% update and mentioned 11:45, but what SB says goes, really. We don't have reason not to trust it was anything more than rallying at this point.


I bet Bacon thinks Crono/Vincent last year was legit too
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/3/2009 12:42:28 PM | message detail
I'm about to have to leave...can somebody give a quick/loose projection of what SM64 should do until 8:00 based on what we've seen since 3:00?
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BT > Harrich
lol me
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 12:44:10 PM | message detail
Mario 64 has cut 167 votes in the last hour. If it can keep that up for the next 4 hours the lead will be...280 for LTTP.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 12:44:24 PM | message detail
Mario 64 should bring this down to about 200 votes by 8 if it keeps up this pace.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 12:44:56 PM | message detail
Let's not forget that the west coast loves itself some Zelda.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 12:45:10 PM | message detail
augh, mario's going to win this

worst contest ever
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 12:45:14 PM | message detail
Nice update for SM64. 15 votes or so is a good cut at this point.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 12:46:05 PM | message detail
50 vote cut.

OH. MY. GOD! WTF WAS THAT UPDATE!
transience | Posted 6/3/2009 12:46:15 PM | message detail
that's 150 votes in 45 minutes. if you assume 200 votes every hour until 9, Mario 64 takes the lead at like 8:15.

that's a really rough sketch though. either way this is way more likely than Zelda 1 coming back yesterday.
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 12:47:36 PM | message detail
Of course, 50 vote cuts rapidly accelerate the pace for Mario 64.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
__hiei__ | Posted 6/3/2009 12:47:44 PM | message detail
15:30 was around the time mario took off against Chrono trigger last round too.let's see if this keeps up...
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 12:49:32 PM | message detail
Boycotting Mario Galaxy 2 confirmed
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 12:49:34 PM | message detail
my god this is like one of the best asvs i've ever seen
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/3/2009 12:49:59 PM | message detail
Nice update for SM64. 15 votes or so is a good cut at this point.

the ASV has about, what? 3 hours left? that's 36 updates, we'll say 40 to make it around 7 pm...to make up 900 votes in 40 updates is 22-23 per update.

I'd say 20 is a better benchmark, if Mario averages 20-vote cuts through 7 pm that brings the gap down to 100, which is definitely manageable

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 12:50:36 PM | message detail
14:30 - 14:45: Mario Up 8
14:45 - 15:00: Mario Up 48
15:00 - 15:15: Mario Up 42
15:15 - 15:30: Mario Up 42
15:30 - 15:45: Mario Up 79

Lead: 899
VP5MU Needed: 9.17
VP15MU needed: 27.51

What are LTTP's trends? Does it do better or worse as the ASV goes on?

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 12:50:54 PM | message detail

From: Julian_Caesar | #219
Nice update for SM64. 15 votes or so is a good cut at this point.

the ASV has about, what? 3 hours left? that's 36 updates, we'll say 40 to make it around 7 pm...to make up 900 votes in 40 updates is 22-23 per update.

I'd say 20 is a better benchmark, if Mario averages 20-vote cuts through 7 pm that brings the gap down to 100, which is definitely manageable


Till 10 PM
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 6/3/2009 12:51:12 PM | message detail
Melee > OoT train boarding now!
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 12:51:24 PM | message detail
Last round, LTTP barely improved from the DSV to the ASV. Mario 64 jumped 3% from its DSV to its ASV average. LTTP actually dropped during the ASV during round 2. Not much improvement in round 1 either. Mario 64 has proven to have a beastly ASV though in all three previous matchups.

So...FFVII/Mario 3/Mario World/Mario 64: Who would you take?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
transience | Posted 6/3/2009 12:51:27 PM | message detail
well, I owe red sox an apology - Mario 64 looks like it has this unless it just stops (which is totally possible). either way, I didn't think it could do much beyond stalling out the day. good call!
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 12:52:09 PM | message detail
Yeah, we need to start listening more to our Lord Prophet red sox.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 12:52:10 PM | message detail
LttP is in big, big trouble, like I said before, its ASV really isn't that good. Mario's probably gonna fly by at ~7:30 or sooner.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/3/2009 12:52:17 PM | message detail
and so it begins

if SM64 wins, i'm guessing this would be the biggest upset of the contest so far? true/false? maybe not since SM64 already knocked off CT, but still...LttP had every indication of being #3

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 12:52:21 PM | message detail
red sox = trend master
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 12:52:30 PM | message detail
God, what a beastly ASV. Who gave Mario the Kingdom Hearts Day Vote? If he keeps this up, this'll be a blowout!
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 12:53:00 PM | message detail
I think Mario 64/SMW/SMB3 is advantage 64. World and 3 have the most overlap there, I think.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 12:53:04 PM | message detail
mario 64 in the finals makes me sick
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 12:53:10 PM | message detail
So...FFVII/Mario 3/Mario World/Mario 64: Who would you take?

If RE4 > TP and both FFX and SMB3 win I think I take the guru and maybe even the entire contest.

Of course I have RE4 > TP...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 12:54:12 PM | message detail
I think Mario 64 has such a good asv here because more kids at that age have played and love mario 64 then an old SNES game. So its just more relevant for school kids, basically
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 12:54:13 PM | message detail
Argh I thought LttP could stave off a comeback if it had over a 800 vote lead.

Man what is with these Nintendo Vs. Nintendo 1000+ vote comebacks
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
transience | Posted 6/3/2009 12:54:35 PM | message detail
Mario 64 has a great day vote, but this is more LTTP having a mediocre one. it seems like old games have those old Chrono Trigger trends, but we never really got to see them because most games like Mario 3 and LTTP don't show up in character battles.

this is why generational stuff sucks - everything has the same trends!
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xyzzy
http://penny-arcade.com/images/2009/20090603.jpg
Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/3/2009 12:55:21 PM | message detail
mario 64 in the finals makes me sick

Why? I can only name 3 games out of the ones remaining who are not worthy to be in the final. Mario 64 isn't one of them. Classic Masterpiece.

- FFX
- Smash Bros Brawl
- Twilight Princess

It would be a joke if any of them were to be in the final.
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Playing: COD4 | Ninja Gaiden Black | Devil Summoner 2
Favourite game ever - Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/3/2009 12:55:23 PM | message detail
200 votes in an hour

ouch

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/user.php?board=263&topic=24952445&user=3024374
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 12:55:35 PM | message detail
100 votes in 15 minutes, eh? This lead will be gone in 2 and a half hours.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 12:56:15 PM | message detail
- FFX
- Smash Bros Brawl
- Twilight Princess

It would be a joke if any of them were to be in the final.


Why would it be a joke for the best game ever to be in the final? That doesn't make any sense.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 12:56:23 PM | message detail
SM64 slowing down a bit now. Still, those two massive cuts will go a long way towards giving it victory. Let's hope it can keep it up!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 12:56:28 PM | message detail
Even if Lttp wins this, I think its time to drop it from the definite number 3
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 12:56:34 PM | message detail
SAVE_US.canadianASV
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 12:56:45 PM | message detail
Watch: Zelda gains 8 votes next update. These trends are just too volatile.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 12:56:49 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #239
- FFX
- Smash Bros Brawl
- Twilight Princess

It would be a joke if any of them were to be in the final.


Why would it be a joke for the best game ever to be in the final? That doesn't make any sense.


Chrono Trigger isn't alive anymore though.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2009 12:57:07 PM | message detail
Well, what do you replace it with? What's left? SSBM, SSBB, and RBY?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 12:57:20 PM | message detail
Canada, you say?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3502&region=CA

whoops

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charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 12:57:25 PM | message detail
Even if Lttp wins this, I think its time to drop it from the definite number 3

Even before the comeback no one should think it takes third without much trouble.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 12:58:11 PM | message detail
"Well, what do you replace it with? What's left? SSBM, SSBB, and RBY?"

Depending on your style, one of the Smash games WILL be unfit to make the finals. For me, RBY in the finals would be a travesty too, though SM64 getting there would nullify the impact of it.
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 6/3/2009 12:58:29 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3502&region=PH

aww yeah
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transience | Posted 6/3/2009 1:00:11 PM | message detail
I'm about to give up on declaring a #3.

tomorrow should reveal a lot, I think. then again, it probably turns into a three way struggle that leaves us with 14 #3s.
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xyzzy
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