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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 740

The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 9:52:04 AM | message detail
I think people are getting a little too down on LttP based on this performance.

So it's not an FF7 killer - it probably was going to be (unless Chrono Trigger's in the poll believe). I still think LttP's pretty assuredly the #3 game on the site, but FF7 and OoT are just that far ahead. Even in 2k4 our #3 could only scrape up 42% on FF7, and I don't think LttP would do that much worse than that 1-on-1.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 9:56:18 AM | message detail
Unless LttP distances itself with the ASV, Mario is still too close for my liking. Basically, if any other game in this field is stronger than Mario 64, it could challenge for that #3 slot. Whatever, though; this is yet another example that the gap between 3-15 is smaller than the one between 2-3.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
transience | Posted 6/3/2009 9:56:25 AM | message detail
fanboyz

LTTP's performance isn't that good. that doesn't mean it can't be our #3, but I think RBY's performance on OOT considering the Nintendo overlap is probably better. I'd have a hell of a time convincing myself to take RBY over LTTP though.
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xyzzy
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 9:58:37 AM | message detail
fanboy of truth

I guess I'm just a little confused here. Are people saying LttP might not be #3 based off its performance on FF7 or based off its performance on Mario 64?

Because if it's off of FF7 that's dumb, and if it's off of Mario 64...uh...I thought we were all kinda figuring Mario 64 to be like top 5 anyway.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
hochiminhX | Posted 6/3/2009 9:59:54 AM | message detail
Interesting. SM64 has effectively stalled Lttp with this morning vote. I'm not completely convinced SM64 gets the ASV but if it does we could have a match.

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I will bury you.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 10:06:41 AM | message detail
I'm crossing my fingers for it. Getting back from 1k would require a Kingdom Hearts-like ASV, probably, but I DESPERATELY want to see another Mario three-way between the three strongest games. Who would you take head on, Mario World or SM64?

PS: Also, I wasn't home last night when SMB3 escaped with the win. Can anyone tell me what happened? The updater says that LoZ almost came back, but was stopped at 2 votes before being pushed back one last time.
HaRRicH | Posted 6/3/2009 10:14:19 AM | message detail
36% with SM64 and FF3/6, for whatever it's worth. Still, I'll agree that RBY's been more impressive than FFX or SSBM so far...and 37% on LoZ:OoT with another big RPG in FF8 while still beating MGS was a pretty amazing feat. RBY deserves Top Five talk, though I figure it's probably just outside of it; LoZ:OoT and FF7 beat it for sure, and I figure it's a decent bet that at least three games out of the group of LoZ:LttP, SM64, SMB3, SMW, SSBB, SSBM, and FFX could beat it.

Either way, I'm expecting RBY to impress again tomorrow, but the odds are just so much in FFX's favor. FFX > FF8, MGS/FF8 might have had some unkind overlap (though I don't like to use that argument when LoZ:OoT/RBY were in the same match), SSBM is another major Nintendo title being thrown into the mix, and FFX did well on SSBM despite KH. Even if RBY advances tomorrow, I'm not sure if it'll be a testament of its overall strength so much as a testament of its hardcore fanbase AND/OR a testament of FFX being over-rated. Either way, I'm really excited to see what happens.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 10:14:42 AM | message detail
Are people saying LttP might not be #3 based off its performance on FF7 or based off its performance on Mario 64?

Both, really. I mean, LTTP is still probably #3, but it's not going to be any sort of wide margin. We're looking at a scenario where #3 vs. #10 could be a 51-49 match.

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ZFS | Posted 6/3/2009 10:15:13 AM | message detail
FFVII at 41% what a beast

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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 10:16:09 AM | message detail
looks like 40.99 to me
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
hochiminhX | Posted 6/3/2009 10:17:21 AM | message detail
I'd laugh if FFX > OoT happens tomorrow.


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I will bury you.
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 10:17:24 AM | message detail
As for possible FF8/MGS overlap...from what I remember of Leon's preliminary stats, extrapolating FF8 against OoT through FF8's R1 performance against Starcraft puts FF8 at pretty much exactly what it got on OoT last match. So if there was any overlap, it was probably minimal.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/3/2009 10:18:12 AM | message detail
FF7 is pretty much performing 'on par' for me. It's doing 1% better against SM64 than it did last round, which will even out after the ASV.

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hochiminhX | Posted 6/3/2009 10:20:57 AM | message detail
FF7 is pretty much performing 'on par' for me.


Really? It's going to outdo what OoT did last round with far tougher competition. MGS got like 36% on OoT. That's what LTTP has on FFVII right now. So if you think MGS = LTTP, OoT is about equal to FFVII.



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I will bury you.
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 10:23:11 AM | message detail
I'm not quite convinced that Brawl is a top 10 game. Sure it thrashed its division, but it was a weak division. Friday's match will be the one where it can prove it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 10:24:39 AM | message detail
it = itself
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 10:32:10 AM | message detail
FF7 > OoT looks like a safe projection again
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 10:34:37 AM | message detail
Depends on how well the fourpack does tomorrow. Hmm...any chances RBY and FFX split the RPG vote? I'd prefer seeing FFX advance, but that's looking like the longshot more and more as each day passes. I'll settle for seeing Melee advance, if that would stop an FF7>RBY debacle.
Smurf FAQs | Posted 6/3/2009 10:36:48 AM | message detail
I could genuinely see FFX choking tomorrow and handing FFVII a massacre win on the final day.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/3/2009 10:43:50 AM | message detail
That would mean we'd have like seven Nintendo games that could beat any FF not named FFVII. And people will still complain when it wins!
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 10:45:40 AM | message detail
"That would mean we'd have like seven Nintendo games that could beat any FF not named FFVII. And people will still complain when it wins!"

People just love to complain like that. Pretty much all of those games (except maybe, MAYBE one of the Smashes, take your pick) deserve to do so.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 10:48:33 AM | message detail
So, if we consider FF7 = OoT, then RBY got a better percentage on OoT then LttP got on FF7

How do we feel about this
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 10:49:14 AM | message detail
In most gaming sites FFVII would probably only be a high mid-carder at best.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 10:49:41 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #073
In most gaming sites FFVII would probably only be a high mid-carder at best.


On the gamespy contest, CT beat it round 1 then got manhandled 65-35% by KOTOR round 2
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/3/2009 10:49:43 AM | message detail
So, if we consider FF7 = OoT, then RBY got a better percentage on OoT then LttP got on FF7

How do we feel about this


FFVII wins?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 10:50:34 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #075
So, if we consider FF7 = OoT, then RBY got a better percentage on OoT then LttP got on FF7

How do we feel about this


FFVII wins?


I mean about if RBY or LttP is stronger
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 10:50:42 AM | message detail
This is how I feel, at least: http://lh6.ggpht.com/_CMsC8WuL1Rc/R-rwSIQr9aI/AAAAAAAABTE/kk-NkBiA_D8/Overkill.jpg

RBY NEEDS to be stopped. If it makes it to the final, the power of The Bandwagon and its own strength could make it take second (no way it takes first, thankfully). It needs to go down, just to save the contest some dignity. We've had interesting finals for two contests already, we don't need a return to boring ones now.
paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 10:52:59 AM | message detail
LttP is still Zelda. It's just suffering from a 3-way SNES LFF and Mario 64 having a little momentum from yesterday. I feel LttP is stronger than RBY directly and would 55-45 it.
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The Gamer In Me
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/3/2009 10:54:07 AM | message detail
I mean about if RBY or LttP is stronger

It looked like he answered you when he said FF7 wins. =P
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BT > Harrich
lol me
Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/3/2009 10:54:35 AM | message detail
It's going to outdo what OoT did last round with far tougher competition. MGS got like 36% on OoT. That's what LTTP has on FFVII right now. So if you think MGS = LTTP, OoT is about equal to FFVII.

That's a deceptive way to use the stats, considering that FFVII is getting a HUGE SFF boost from FF3/6 in this match. Why isn't FF3/6 at least CLOSE to SM64 and LttP? After all, it got 45% on LttP in the last match...and even taking into account LttP getting votes stolen by Metroid and LA, that doesn't add up to FF3/6 somehow getting only 34% on LttP in the next match, especially considering LttP is facing what is BY FAR the toughest Nintendo competition it's had of the contest. The only reason FF3/6 is this low is because of SFF. Which in turn, is inflating FFVII's results.

Don't get me wrong, I think FFVII will probably win anyway. But I don't think this round is a good indicator of its strength. FFVII is now, and always has been, better than any other game at SFF. For that reason, I don't think we're going to see its real strength until it actually goes up against OoT.

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ZFS | Posted 6/3/2009 10:55:21 AM | message detail
FFX shouldn't have much trouble advancing tomorrow. It looks to be Melee's equal in strength, which is undoubtedly top tier; the fact that it's the only non-Nintendo game is a bonus.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 10:55:56 AM | message detail
4 straight cuts


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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 10:56:17 AM | message detail
equal to melee still weaker than pokemanz
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 10:56:28 AM | message detail

From: ZFS | #081
FFX shouldn't have much trouble advancing tomorrow. It looks to be Melee's equal in strength, which is undoubtedly top tier; the fact that it's the only non-Nintendo game is a bonus.


seems HM still hasn't learned his lesson from being burnt by the pokeymans :P
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 10:56:36 AM | message detail
"It's just suffering from a 3-way SNES LFF"

Uhh...no? There are only TWO SNES game in this poll.

Also, no way does LttP 55-45 RBY unless RBY overperformed to an insane degree. As its been said before,.the margin between any of the 15 best games or so is extremely close, close enough to make 53-47 look like a blowout most of the time, and I've no doubt RBY IS a top 15 game.
paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 10:57:43 AM | message detail
And you guys really need to stop entertaining the thought of Pokemon advancing to Round 5. At this point, I'm not wasting my breath on why. This just seems like a Mario/Samus affair in which you people truly think the losing entrant actually has a chance.

RBY's bandwagon factor needs to be as big as L-Block's from R4 in order to stand a chance (which won't happen).
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The Gamer In Me
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 10:59:03 AM | message detail

From: paulg235 | #086
And you guys really need to stop entertaining the thought of Pokemon advancing to Round 5. At this point, I'm not wasting my breath on why. This just seems like a Mario/Samus affair in which you people truly think the losing entrant actually has a chance.

RBY's bandwagon factor needs to be as big as L-Block's from R4 in order to stand a chance (which won't happen).


yeah kinda like how people tried to deny RBYs strength every match before this
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paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 10:59:09 AM | message detail
Whoops, thought SM64 was SMW for that post. >.>

Still a 3-way Nintendo game LFF.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
hochiminhX | Posted 6/3/2009 10:59:26 AM | message detail
That's a deceptive way to use the stats, considering that FFVII is getting a HUGE SFF boost from FF3/6 in this match


Boost? FFVI is nothing but a drain on FFVII. Remove FFVI and FFVII wins by an even larger margin. By your terrible logic, a match with FFVII/FFVIII/FFVI/OoT would give FFVII a massive win because FFVII would be "boosted"


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I will bury you.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 10:59:58 AM | message detail
Why? RBY doesn't seem to be too affected by SFF, and it's faced the strongest Ninty game already. Melee is probably more vulnerable (if only slightly, I still remember Mario/Smash 2006), and FFX is, at best, Melee's equal, which would put it a notch or two below RBY. It needs to be stronger than we thought by a fair bit to win.
ZFS | Posted 6/3/2009 11:00:40 AM | message detail
Pokemon surprised me last round by holding up well to Ocarina, but that wasn't really the same situation as it is tomorrow. We're looking at a game stronger than MGS1 or FFVIII, without any chance of it being held back by another similar game (MGS and FF probably didn't do a whole lot to each other, but there's still potential for something there, where there won't be tomorrow). If FFX loses it -- and by extension, Melee -- is much weaker than top 10, or Pokemon is stupidly strong to the tune of top 3 game, though a very distant top 3 game from the top 2.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 11:02:21 AM | message detail
Pokemon is stupidly strong to the tune of top 3 game

winner winner chicken dinner
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
HaRRicH | Posted 6/3/2009 11:02:32 AM | message detail
For what it's worth, I don't entirely trust how much better RBY did against MGS when LoZ:MM and GS were replaced with LoZ:OoT. We may over-rate its general strength because of assumed SFF when it could really just be that the Pokemon fanbase is quite passionate about their star-game. That said, if that is the case, that can't hurt against FFX tomorrow, so RBY is still in competition with either route you take...they're just tough odds on each theory.

Also, a lot has happened since we last asked this: LoZ:WW or LoZ:MM?
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BT > Harrich
lol me
ZFS | Posted 6/3/2009 11:03:55 AM | message detail
damn you gamefaqs buncha pokefreakz

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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 11:04:55 AM | message detail
Fanboy pick: Loz: MM. Between black sheeps, the one that isn't Celda and has a better story and mechanics should win.

On topic, even if RBY WAS SFFed, this means it stood up like a champ. Do you think Melee would have done as well? For that matter, do you think the weight of casual SFF AND Ninty SFF will siphon enough votes to give FFX a good chance?
__hiei__ | Posted 6/3/2009 11:06:18 AM | message detail
i don't think we can safely say any game is #3 at this point.these matches are all plagued with sff somehow,LTTP and Mario are affecting each other in some way,last round CT was definitely hurt by FF7's preesence..and yet they're all very close stat-wise.so in a one on one match between these games i think anything is possible.

right now LTTP ends about 2% higher than CT in stats (and might go lower) ,but how much of that difference is due to weird SFF?

and then there are also other games to throw in..Mario world,Mario 3..though i do think SM64 is the strongest mario right now.
hochiminhX | Posted 6/3/2009 11:07:20 AM | message detail
SM64 has cut 30 votes in the last half hour. Do you know what this means? LTTP is finished come ASV.
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I will bury you.
The Mana Sword | Posted 6/3/2009 11:07:53 AM | message detail
30 votes in the last 30 minutes gasp
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/3/2009 11:09:08 AM | message detail
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. While 30 votes is a nice cut, its pretty small, and getting 1k back from a game with a decent ASV is a really difficult thing. This isn't Tetris SM64 is facing, its a game with a good day vote.

Of course, that post could have been sarcasm, and I might have missed it completely.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/3/2009 11:09:57 AM | message detail
mario 64 wins
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