GameFAQs Contests

I wanted Mario 3 to win and all, but it didn't need to cheat.




~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Same here.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Anyone think the PSN release today of FF7 is helping it somewhat or has everyone already played this game by now?
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

I doubt it, it destroyed all the games last round also.
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.

Do they still ban the cheaters on here?
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Wall to Kentucky. Sig changed (:

I'd almost call FFX the favorite!

Almost? Man, time for FFX to kick some ass tomorrow.


I know Squall is in Kingdom Hearts, which probably gives him a small amount of overlap with Sora. It still didn't allow Squall to SFF Sora. If Sora was being SFFed by Squall, then he shouldn't have been able to pull off a massive comeback on Squall. Sora actually cut about 1600 votes off a lead of about 4400 during the day vote.

What does that have to do with anything? Trends =/= overlap. You're not seriously suggesting FF and KH don't LFF.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino

LttP with a 24 gain to start the morning. I'm going to assume that it's safe and be outtie now!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Actually, LTTP's probably going to bury Mario 64 with the DSV. If it were only an 800 vote lead at 3, Mario could do this, but if LTTP goes back to 52% hours for the DSV, this is over.

LTTP got 50.96% in that last hour. Looks like it could be on track to get 52% hours.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

ccc comeback.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

huh, Mario 64 did a pretty good job of not getting murdered. looks like it can still win this!

day vote.. who knows. *should* go to Mario 64, but then you'd think it should have gone to Mario 3 over Zelda1.
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xyzzy

Mega Man 2 – 14.47%
Mega Man 3 – 14.47%

lol

Sonic the Hedgehog – 31.69%
Mega Man 3 – 31.68%

My ass
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1

SM64 should easily have the better asv here. Compare the ASVs against two bad asv games (FF6 and CT):

LttP: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3496&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

SM64: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3497&type=2&seconds=60&max=0
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

Vote. Total. Stats.

Super Mario Bros. kept about 29.8% of its votes from last round, about 24.57% of its votes from the round before that, and about 15.95% of its votes from the round before that. Seems like GameFAQs really doesn't give a damn about this game, as it got absolutely destroyed by its younger brothers.

The Legend of Zelda kept about 81.92% of its votes from last round, about 77.71% of its votes from the round before that, and about 46.76% of its votes from the round before that. It lost a lot of steam once Mario 1 came into the picture, but was able to hold up very well after that.

Super Mario Bros. 3 kept about 91.01% of its votes from last round, about 61.49% of its votes from the round before that, and about 37.86% of its votes from the round before that. Seems like SMB 1 and Zelda 1 didn't hurt it much at all.

Super Mario World kept about 99.05% of its votes from last round, about 60.91% of its votes from the round before that, and about 58.11% of its votes from the round before that. The SNES has a more hardcore fanbase than the NES, it seems. SMW should watch out next round when Zelda 3 steps in.

1. Final Fantasy VII (Round 3)
2. Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Round 3)
3. Zelda: A Link to the Past (Round 3)
4. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Round 3)
5. Super Mario Bros. (Round 3)
6. Super Smash Bros. Melee (Round 3)
7. Zelda: Twilight Princess (Round 3)
8. The Legend of Zelda (Round 3)
9. Final Fantasy VI (Round 3)
10. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 3)
11. Super Mario World (Round 3)
12. Super Mario World (Round 4)
13. Final Fantasy X (Round 3)
14. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 4)
15. The Legend of Zelda (Round 4)
16. Metal Gear Solid 4 (Round 3)
17. Resident Evil 4 (Round 3)
18. Metal Gear Solid 3 (Round 3)
19. Super Mario 64 (Round 3)
20. Pokemon Red/Blue (Round 3)
21. Chrono Trigger (Round 3)
22. Kingdom Hearts (Round 3)
23. Metal Gear Solid (Round 3)
24. Oblivion (Round 3)
25. Fallout 3 (Round 3)
26. Final Fantasy IV (Round 3)
27. Final Fantasy VIII (Round 3)
28. Diablo II (Round 3)
29. Call of Duty 4 (Round 3)
30. Super Metroid (Round 3)
31. GoldenEye (Round 3)
32. Tetris (Round 3)
33. Sonic the Hedgehog (Round 3)
34. Mega Man 2 (Round 3)
35. Zelda: Link’s Awakening (Round 3)
36. Super Mario Bros. (Round 4)

LOL SUPER MARIO BROS.

Not to mention SM64 should be more relevant to kids still in school then a SNES title from nearly 20 years ago
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

hrm

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3497&type=1&seconds=3600&max=0

looks like Mario 64's actually better in the daytime than with the morning vote. unexpected.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3496&type=1&seconds=3600&max=0

Zelda's not bad either though, and it has a pretty mediocre morning vote. I'm very confident in LTTP, especially since Zelda does awesome with this dead zone time. Mario 64's got a small shot though.
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xyzzy

I'd love it if the upset happened.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416

SM64 has to keep it within 1k by the asv to stand a chance though, imo. So it needs to stall till then
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

I doubt SM64 can still from 11-3. we'll see
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xyzzy

Yeah, I think I like Zelda here, but who the hell knows.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

LoZ:LttP's looking good, but I think SM64 may be able to turn over the current lead with the ASV...it just can't afford to let it get any bigger.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Link to the Past isn't really that great with the ASV, and after seeing what happened yesterday I'm not going to feel comfortable with any kind of realistic lead LttP can build here.

But until Mario 64 does something nuts, Zelda's still got the edge.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

LoZ:LttP just flew past a 1,000-vote lead.

Maybe SM64 can make this closer with the ASV, but LoZ:LttP's assuring a win here. I think we see half of our championship battle right now.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Zelda fans are shooting themselves in the foot here.
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I will bury you.

Geez FF7...

LttP's lead is over 1000. It looks it'll be safe. Not a great performance from it, even though I still like it to get to the finals.
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 58 - Bracket: FF7 > LttP - Vote: SM64 (295/416)

Damn, my FFVII > SMB3 pick would have been great if SMW wasn't there.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416

FFVII will soon break 41%....



...against the 3rd strongest game, the 4th strongest game and another Top 15 game which is nothing but a drain on FFVII. Sweet Jesus. What does Ocarina need tomorrow to match this?

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I will bury you.

Roughly the same IMO, Pokemon, FFX and Melee are all top 10 games or just outside of it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416

If FFX doesn't place tomorrow it should be banned and never show its face in a contest again. There is no excuse for it not to get second tomorrow.


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I will bury you.

OoT will be lucky to break 35% tbqh
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www.board8.wikia.com ~ The definitive source of GFAQs Contests
Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity

If FFX doesn't place tomorrow it should be banned and never show its face in a contest again. There is no excuse for it not to get second tomorrow.

I don't know, Pokemon seemed pretty immuned to SFF.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416

*FFX uses Dispel*
*Pokemon loses its SFF Protection status*

>.>
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http://www.philosophynow.org/issue58/58kirby.htm
Currently playing: Persona 3 FES

It'd be funny if today was a repeat of yesterday with SM64 being the one playing from behind.

And then SM64 steals it again as LttP gets 11:45'd. Mario would become the biggest heel in the company it'd be great.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

I doubt SM64 can still from 11-3. we'll see

Doesn't seem like it will be winning during that time period. It's been dropping off since about 2 hours ago.

Time | LTTP | FFVI | FFVII | Mario 64
1:00 | 25.53% | 14.44% | 36.80% | 23.23%
2:00 | 23.71% | 15.88% | 39.28% | 21.14%
3:00 | 23.19% | 15.21% | 40.88% | 20.73%
4:00 | 21.87% | 16.05% | 43.00% | 19.08%
5:00 | 21.21% | 14.25% | 45.31% | 19.24%
6:00 | 20.37% | 13.32% | 46.07% | 20.24%
7:00 | 21.85% | 12.74% | 43.17% | 22.24%
8:00 | 22.74% | 13.26% | 42.11% | 21.89%
9:00 | 22.11% | 14.14% | 41.32% | 22.43%
10:00 | 23.31% | 13.52% | 41.55% | 21.62%
11:00 | 23.44% | 13.92% | 41.67% | 20.96%

For reference, I used the 11:05 update to get the trends for the 11th hour. I chose to use the 11:05 update since I noticed that even though the updater site had an 8 minute difference between the 11:05 update and the one right before, the number of votes taken in during that time was similar to that of the updates right next to it. The number of votes taken in during different updates:

10:53 - 10:57: 441
10:57 - 11:05: 495
11:05 - 11:08: 482
11:08 - 11:13: 471

The fact the 11:05 update only had 495 votes would suggest that the poll on GameFAQs updated itself around 11:02, but the updater didn't record the update until 11:05, most likely because the site could have been down for a few minutes. If there was an 8 minute update on GameFAQs instead of the standard 5 minute update, you'd probably be looking at around 750-800 votes during an 8 minute update. And if GameFAQs really did spit out a 3 minute update, you'd only be getting about 300 new votes during that time period and there were 482 between 11:05 and 11:08.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

I'd like Mario 64 to make a match out of this, but it's probably dead.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Mario 64 would have no right to do that to LttP.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

SM64 has every right and even a backstage pass to do that. It's just...not.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285

huh. LTTP just kinda stopped increasing.

day vote let's go!
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xyzzy

The thing about FFX is that it could still impress relative to Ocarina, yet fail to place - or even get last - depending on how the SFF goes.

If RBY and Melee resist SFF, they could do very well, and our best guess right now is that Melee is the strongest of these games without SFF. One could even theorize the unlikely scenario that Melee resists SFF, and that RBY actually did in fact get SFFed by Ocarina and is stronger than it showed last round (I doubt anybody would buy that right now, but it's not impossible) on top of moderate bandwagoning - and then FFX pushes 40% against Ocarina and still gets dead last.

That's a pretty outlandish scenario, and in all likelihood if FFX fails to place it will be because it flopped. But it could endure the unfortunate scenario of impressing, yet not placing.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

RBY only got 36% last round so unless you think it gets bandwagoned getting 40% against OoT should be enough to win (though OoT won't win the contest IMO)

Also Melee was affected by Wind Waker so the same can happen with Ocarina of Time.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416

huh. LTTP just kinda stopped increasing.

It still won that last hour.

Time | LTTP | FFVI | FFVII | Mario 64
10:00 | 23.31% | 13.52% | 41.55% | 21.62%
11:00 | 23.44% | 13.92% | 41.67% | 20.96%
12:00 | 23.05% | 13.62% | 40.84% | 22.49%

I figured LTTP would be winning the DSV over Mario 64 easily, but this is really turning into a stranglefest here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

goddamn mario is CHEATING AGAIN
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

He's the son of a thousand fathers, all bastards like him.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

After today, I'd consider RBY's 36% against OoT more impressive than anything Melee or FFX has done. Everyone here still seems to think LTTP is a contender for #3, and it's got 36% against FF7.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Yeah. With Mario in the poll.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

Scratch that, RBY's 37% against OoT. Even better!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

I'd take SMB3/SMW over LttP based on this performance.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416

Which equals...how little overlap? Especially when considering FF7 is also overlapping with FF6 (although it's more SFFing than LFFing)?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

I'm kinda wishing we had seen Zelda vs. Mario in the series contest. Might not have been a bloodbath.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Everyone here still seems to think LTTP is a contender for #3, and it's got 36% against FF7.

Scratch that, RBY's 37% against OoT. Even better!

Knowing FF7's horrible day vote, LTTP will probably rise to 37-38% on it by the end of this match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!