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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 739

charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:26:51 PM | message detail
Looks like SM64 is falling apart
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 9:27:16 PM | message detail
Glancing at the Oracle, I didn't see anybody with FF7 above 38%, and those all seem to have had FF6 really low.

Pretty sure I have FFVII at 39% here.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:27:49 PM | message detail
Glancing at the Oracle, I didn't see anybody with FF7 above 38%, and those all seem to have had FF6 really low.

I have FFVII at 43%.
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iGenesis | Posted 6/2/2009 9:29:54 PM | message detail
ALttP > SM64? Seriously?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:30:29 PM | message detail
god damn mario fanboys
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:30:38 PM | message detail
Yes SM64 cut!
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 9:30:57 PM | message detail
In 2k4 we had that post-contest poll where 28% said FFVII really was the best game ever. If that were to still hold true,

I've said many times before, but that wouldn't be close to holding true. If you held a bunch of those polls on the same day for different games (randomly showing different users different games), then "I think this is the best game ever" results would probably sum up to over 200%, forget 100%. People will probably vote "yeah this is the best game" for any game they love without thinking much, even if it's not their real #1 game they'd vote above anything.

That said, it's just amazing how FF7 and Ocarina should be in the same range, despite Ocarina assuredly having a bit playrate edge of at least 10%. Just goes to show how *awesome* FF7 really is - a lot more people who played know that it's the best game ever! Ocarina needs more people to compete and it still can't beat FF7! :)
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Gaddswell | Posted 6/2/2009 9:31:28 PM | message detail
It's about time SM64 cut!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/2/2009 9:31:34 PM | message detail
Glancing at the Oracle, I didn't see anybody with FF7 above 38%, and those all seem to have had FF6 really low.

I didn't put FF6 low at all, but I have a decent prediction on FF7. Here's what I had for the Oracle and my Analysis Crew prediction:

Zelda: A Link to the Past - 28.41%
Final Fantasy III (VI) - 15.36%
Final Fantasy VII - 36.51%
Super Mario 64 - 19.72%

I overestimated Zelda, but FF6 is going to look pretty good here if it rises overnight. SM64 is going to drop like a rock overnight, making my prediction look a lot better.
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Mario Fanboy | Posted 6/2/2009 9:32:13 PM | message detail
god damn mario fanboys

I didn't do anything. >_>
MetricTrout | Posted 6/2/2009 9:32:29 PM | message detail
All right, Mario 64 cut.

A Mario 3/World/64 semifinal would be awesome.
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creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 9:33:01 PM | message detail
Pretty sure I have FFVII at 39% here.

I only glanced at the last couple pages. No doubt many people have it above that, but not the late predictors, whose consensus is typically more accurate than the overall consensus (and the overall consensus crushes most predictors to begin with). And I'm sure their consensus had FF7 higher than the overall consensus.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 9:33:05 PM | message detail
If anyone put FF7 low, it's because they were expecting something out of LTTP. LTTP obviously isn't as strong as many were expecting, so FF7 is going to do better.

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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:33:24 PM | message detail
From here to the end of the match in round 2, SM64 gained 1.91% on CT.
From here to the end of the match, LTTP lost 0.89% against FFVI.
LTTP currently has 51.51% on SM64.

Hmm.....
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creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 9:33:41 PM | message detail
I didn't do anything. >_>

Haha awesome :0)
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creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 9:34:41 PM | message detail
From here to the end of the match in round 2, SM64 gained 1.91% on CT.
From here to the end of the match, LTTP lost 0.89% against FFVI.


So Chrono Trigger has like the worst day vote ever. Tell us something we didn't know :)

You were prescient about the last match though.
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creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 9:35:36 PM | message detail
That is to say, You were prescient about the last match, sir

Sorry I meant no disrespect master :(
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:35:43 PM | message detail
Mario... you sly dog.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:36:27 PM | message detail
CT has the worst day vote ever? I don't think so, not anymore. Not unless you believe FFVII's day vote is so bad now that FFVI could go even with it.

To be fair, CT loses a lot of percentage overnight thanks to Europe, while FFVI holds steady or gains, but I've little doubt CT would beat FFVI easily at the actual day vote now.
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transience | Posted 6/2/2009 9:38:05 PM | message detail
Crono would probably beat Kefka in the day, for whatever that's worth.
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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 9:38:09 PM | message detail
Not unless you believe FFVII's day vote is so bad now that FFVI could go even with it.

I don't quite follow (sir).

To be fair, CT loses a lot of percentage overnight thanks to Europe, while FFVI holds steady or gains, but I've little doubt CT would beat FFVI easily at the actual day vote now.

You're probably right. I should say CT has the worst post-earlyish vote ever, excluding the second night vote.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:39:09 PM | message detail
I don't quite follow (sir).

CT went just about exactly even with FFVII in the ASV last round. It lost something like 0.10% relative to it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 9:39:57 PM | message detail
Crono would probably beat Kefka in the day, for whatever that's worth.

He probably did. We just don't have the updater to confirm it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:40:33 PM | message detail
DO THE MARIO!
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
transience | Posted 6/2/2009 9:40:54 PM | message detail
LTTP the clear #3 I don't think so
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 9:41:17 PM | message detail
aww yeah mario
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creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 9:41:21 PM | message detail
So FF7 and FF6 don't seem to be LFFIng horrifically. And any LFF is probably coming almost solely at the expense of the weaker game.

Anyone want to speculate on what this means for a FF7/FFX/Ocarina/Nintendosomething final?

The obvious thing to think would be that FF7 shouldn't be hurt by FFX and so looks good, but I suppose one could theorize that FF7/FF6 LFF is less because of the 2D/3D thing, whereas FF7/FFX are both New Square.

The finals are still up in the air to me, though there's a real good shot FFX doesn't even make in, in which case FINAL FANTASY VII SMASH PUNY NINTENDO
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 6/2/2009 9:41:26 PM | message detail
FF7 and three Mario games let's do this.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/2/2009 9:41:39 PM | message detail

From: transience | Posted: 6/3/2009 12:38:05 AM | #370
Crono would probably beat Kefka in the day, for whatever that's worth.


He already has.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:41:40 PM | message detail
Mario wants another fight. Not going to let your rightful king Link have anything, are you Mario, you traitor.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 9:41:47 PM | message detail
Did anyone actually think LTTP was the clear #3?

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greatone10 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:43:28 PM | message detail
Just what exactly is the clear #3 these days?
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Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/2/2009 9:44:16 PM | message detail
The clear #3 is

*spoilers*
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Monkey Island
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creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 9:44:24 PM | message detail
Did anyone actually think LTTP was the clear #3?

I don't think it's by much over SMB3 over SMW, but it probably is the #3. It should look better compared to Mario 64 than it does now.

The day won't provide anything like a LoZ/SMB3 swing, especially since Mario 64 is newer than LttP, but this should be Mario's best time to swing votes. And it's losing.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 9:44:29 PM | message detail
Well, you've got the clear Top 2, and then the murky rest of the Top 25...ish.

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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:44:42 PM | message detail
Just what exactly is the clear #3 these days?

LttP/SMB3/SMW/SM64

>_>
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:44:55 PM | message detail
LTTP was the presumptive #3 until proven otherwise once CT lost to SM64. Pretty reasonable, it was probably the game that had the highest probability of being #3. That didn't, however, mean it had a greater than 50% probability of actually being #3. If it holds on to win here though, it can very well still be #3. I think the SM64/LTTP/CT group is likely 3-5.
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:45:46 PM | message detail
Damn it Mario go up!
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 9:46:35 PM | message detail
I'm still not sure what beats LTTP at this point. Are people thinking RBY beats it?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:46:47 PM | message detail
I think the SM64/LTTP/CT group is likely 3-5.

SMB3/SMW???
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:47:31 PM | message detail
I'm still not sure what beats LTTP at this point. Are people thinking RBY beats it?

Maybe with OoT in the poll.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416
MetricTrout | Posted 6/2/2009 9:47:32 PM | message detail
At this point, I doubt Old Square and New Square hurt each other at all.

Take Kefka, for example. He actually scored a higher percentage on Marcus Fenix in 2007 in Round 2, when Cloud was added into the poll. Granted, that was after replacing his awful "Lettuce" pic with a slightly less awful "Clown" pic, but if pics mean more than FF7/FF6 SFF, it is pretty safe to say that FF7/FF6 SFF was not very significant in the first place.
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transience | Posted 6/2/2009 9:47:45 PM | message detail
CT #5? I dunno about that.

we're going to have no idea thanks to Zelda getting 11:45'd, too. seeing LTTP vs. a 2d Mario game could have been something interesting. I don't think Zelda 1 would have hindered it much at al,.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 9:47:57 PM | message detail
Argh, my bracket is officially dead.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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paulg235 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:49:25 PM | message detail
Argh, my bracket is officially dead.

You had LttP>FF7?
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:49:55 PM | message detail
SMB3 was a step below LTTP in 2004, and SMW was pretty far below it. I don't see why they'd be stronger than it now. So, if Mario 64 ends up beating or coming close to LTTP, I'm quite willing to put it a step above the other 2 Marios. Chrono Trigger put up 49% on SM64 with FFVII and Goldeneye....hard to tell how it goes 1v1, but it's probably pretty close to that.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 9:50:09 PM | message detail
No, Zelda 1 failing to advance yesterday killed it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/2/2009 9:50:41 PM | message detail
LttP should manage a comfortable enough win for us to assume that no Mario game would beat it, which limits our other #3 prospects to Melee, Pokemon, and Brawl.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 9:50:43 PM | message detail
Actually, Zelda 1 advancing would have still killed it. More precisely, Mario World advancing killed it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 9:50:44 PM | message detail
Damn these Zelda stuffers

>_>
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > LoZ: LttP Points: 291/416