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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 739

General_Zimbad | Posted 6/2/2009 11:18:58 PM | message detail
I don't get what's so great about lttp? I mean I finished it and it was alright, but no way was it better than SM64, NO WAY!!!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/2/2009 11:19:27 PM | message detail
Also, I hate Mario's guts now and hope he gets a Round 2 match versus Luigi, Yoshi, and Tifa. ***** slapped with the Double Ds.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 11:19:43 PM | message detail
Yeah, LTTP is the worst game in this poll. The other three are great games though.
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ObscureMammoth | Posted 6/2/2009 11:20:57 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #453
Yeah, LTTP is the worst game in this poll. The other three are great games though.


LttP is the best game of ever.
Also, is SBallin' just going to allow that vote stuff?
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General_Zimbad | Posted 6/2/2009 11:23:08 PM | message detail
Oh well at least if Lttp makes it through we can confirm FFVII>OoT, which is good for me.
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/2/2009 11:23:17 PM | message detail
Also, I hate Mario's guts now and hope he gets a Round 2 match versus Luigi, Yoshi, and Tifa. ***** slapped with the Double Ds.

I can think of worse fates, although I might be getting carried away with the imagery.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/2/2009 11:24:05 PM | message detail
Thing is, if FFVI is resisting SFF from FFVII because of the "different generations" thing, that means LttP should stand up somewhat when it runs into OoT. The only thing that really has me worried is that everyone's going to see the match as FF7 v OoT (as they rightfully should) leaving FFX and LttP to combine for like 10% of the vote - but we'll see!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/2/2009 11:24:05 PM | message detail
Also, is SBallin' just going to allow that vote stuff?

I'm really disappointed that he didn't give us a word. Even a simple "I know it's weird, but I didn't catch any shenanigans, so the result stands" would have been better than silence. Ah well, at least this way we can call Mario a damned cheater until otherwise noted.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/2/2009 11:24:49 PM | message detail
I can think of worse fates, although I might be getting carried away with the imagery.

Heh, yeah. I was thinking after I typed it that I wouldn't mind such humiliation.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
Master Moltar | Posted 6/2/2009 11:26:55 PM | message detail
Thing is, if FFVI is resisting SFF from FFVII because of the "different generations" thing, that means LttP should stand up somewhat when it runs into OoT.

I was depending on this when I picked FF7 > OoT in the finals!

Yes, I thought OoT was stronger than FF7 pre-contest, but LttP would hurt it more than FFX hurt FF7.
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Match 58 - Bracket: FF7 > LttP - Vote: SM64 (295/416)
medicority | Posted 6/2/2009 11:27:21 PM | message detail
lttp and oot kill each other off, pokemon slides into second
paulg235 | Posted 6/2/2009 11:28:22 PM | message detail
Also, I hate Mario's guts now and hope he gets a Round 2 match versus Luigi, Yoshi, and Tifa.

Okay, now there's no reason to take your hate on Luigi, I mean, what did he ever do to you? Change him with Bowser.

Anyway, I would prefer Tifa > Master Chief in R1 followed by Tifa > Ryu in R2 followed by Tifa > Sonic in R3 with Mega Man going out in that match, too.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/2/2009 11:31:30 PM | message detail
Eh, I unfortunately think that not even most of the near-elites can take out Mario given favorable circumstances (not including Link, of course, as any of them could take him there). Maybe Squall could kick his ass with Yoshi and Bowser in the poll. Hopefully.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/2/2009 11:32:59 PM | message detail
What's this hate on Mario? He's infinitely better than Link!

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
paulg235 | Posted 6/2/2009 11:34:18 PM | message detail
On second thought, switch Yoshi with mudkip. Joke voting would mess Mario up.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/2/2009 11:37:25 PM | message detail
What's this hate on Mario? He's infinitely better than Link!

Like I've argued before, Mario is a smug, unlikable douche in everything but the main Mario platformers. Now, I'm often willing to look the other way, but all those spinoffs do represent about 90% of the games he stars in. Link, on the other hand, is just amazing. Quiet, efficient, always helping others, never thinking of himself. Link is like... Fedor Emelianenko, actually!
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 11:40:43 PM | message detail
http://www.meristation.com/EPORTAL_IMGS/GENERAL/articulos/Diciembre2005-APM23TuchicaenunaDS/IMG2-cw438e3a9a1f7d8/zona2_apm23.jpg

whats smug, unlikeable and douchey about him
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 11:42:20 PM | message detail
Also, is SBallin' just going to allow that vote stuff?

Yep, looks like it. The only time Bacon actually cares to look into voting trends is when 4chan rallies for Battletoads. Why even bother? It's not like he cares about legitimacy anyway.

And Mario 64 might end up worse relative to FFVII this round than last. Huh, not sure what to make of that.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 11:43:06 PM | message detail
And Mario 64 might end up worse relative to FFVII this round than last. Huh, not sure what to make of that.

uhh... its easy. Zelda is in the poll
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 11:44:25 PM | message detail
uhh... its easy. Zelda is in the poll

Final Fantasy VI is in the poll, too, you know. Definitely affecting FFVII more than CT did, too.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
hochiminhX | Posted 6/2/2009 11:46:20 PM | message detail
The only time Bacon actually cares to look into voting trends is when 4chan rallies for Battletoads.


Wait, what? I was gone that week. Explain.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 11:49:58 PM | message detail
Battletoads got a 4chan rally the day of its match, and so the vote totals (and Battletoads's percentage) were very inflated. Bacon decides he's going to be a dedicated trooper and explain that the extra votes are legitimate rally votes. Whoop-de-doo.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/3/2009 12:18:39 AM | message detail
Time | Mario 1 | Zelda 1 | Mario 3 | Mario World | Demographic
EBV | 11.60% | 25.90% | 29.67% | 32.83% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 10.44% | 26.00% | 31.90% | 31.66% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 11.12% | 26.73% | 30.33% | 31.81% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 12.06% | 28.99% | 28.24% | 30.71% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 10.77% | 28.88% | 29.12% | 31.23% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 11.25% | 30.87% | 27.42% | 30.45% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 10.42% | 30.69% | 29.50% | 29.39% | (22:00-24:00)


Hahaha, Mario 3 was just dying with the ASV.


LttP and FFX seem like virtual locks for the finals now

FFX would have to upset Melee tomorrow and that's going to be tough because it needs to overturn a 7500 vote loss. Even with OoT, Melee should resist SFF pretty well. There's been very few SFF cases this contest, but LFF has occured several times already. If anything will hurt Melee here, it's Pokemon and not OoT since I'm expecting Pokemon to get a massive push at the start of the match.

For LttP, if Mario 64 can eliminate it right now, that makes OoT more likely to have a shot at winning the contest. Those odds are even better if FFX is present in the finals. And even if LttP advances today, Mario 3/Mario World would have a better shot at upsetting LttP than Mario 64.

Battletoads got a 4chan rally the day of its match, and so the vote totals (and Battletoads's percentage) were very inflated. Bacon decides he's going to be a dedicated trooper and explain that the extra votes are legitimate rally votes.

Do you have the topic archived somewhere or at least the actual text of his post saved?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 12:22:50 AM | message detail
FFX did 4% worse against MGS2 just adding KH. If that follows, just removing KH would let FFX within 48-49% on Melee. From there, it's not hard for OoT to nudge Melee down just a percent or two. I wouldn't say that's tough. In fact I'd almost call FFX the favorite! Well I would, except everytime a Square game has tried to rely on LFF to reverse a match result it's like 0 for 3 or something. I didn't actually count but I think it might be worse
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 6/3/2009 12:25:39 AM | message detail
Do you have the topic archived somewhere or at least the actual text of his post saved?

Of course:

Topic: For all you number crunchers

Here are some interesting statistics from yesterday's battle, for those worried about the influence of hackers, vote-stuffers, and the like.

Registered users voted 11.76% for Battletoads.

Users who had visited GameFAQs before the start of the poll voted 11.80% for Battletoads - almost exactly in line with the registered user count.

Users who first visited GameFAQs since the poll began voted 20.90% for Battletoads, 43% more than what you would expect, but that's only around 2500 votes.

But, if we look to see where those 2500 "new visitor" votes for Battletoads come from:
US: 65% (compared with 64% of all votes)
UK: 6% (6%)
AU: 3% (2%)
CA: 9% (11%)
ROW: 17% (17%)

The number of votes from new visitors for Battletoads come in along the same lines as the rest of the votes we get, and looking all the way down at votes by IP address bears that out - there are no votes where you wouldn't expect them.

There's no sign that there was anything but a rally here.
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Um, not to criticize science or anything, but wouldn't it be easier just to call it "the pink one"?

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paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 12:33:49 AM | message detail
FFX would have to upset Melee tomorrow and that's going to be tough because it needs to overturn a 7500 vote loss. Even with OoT, Melee should resist SFF pretty well. There's been very few SFF cases this contest, but LFF has occured several times already. If anything will hurt Melee here, it's Pokemon and not OoT since I'm expecting Pokemon to get a massive push at the start of the match.

You're forgetting three things there.
1. FFX was LFF'ed last Round by Kingdom Hearts, and that game sucked FFX's day vote out.
2. FFX has the STF, plus it's three-way nintendo. Personally, I'm expecting either the pressure to be too much and Melee and/or R/B/Y will fold, or for the overlap to be so big that OoT barely breaks 30%.
3. Melee has done nothing impressive in this contest at all.

I'm expecting the result to be something like this;

OoT: 31.50%
FFX: 28.50%
Melee: 20.25%
R/B/Y: 19.75%
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 12:35:52 AM | message detail
Melee goes from being the sore thumb to being a tree in a forest. If FFX can't reverse a mere 5% there thenit is the king of choke.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/3/2009 1:08:45 AM | message detail
1. FFX was LFF'ed last Round by Kingdom Hearts, and that game sucked FFX's day vote out.

There's no LFF between the two despite both being considered "Square" games. FFX and Kingdom Hearts have two totally different fanbases. Kingdom Hearts is fueled by kiddie votes. Not the case with FFX. This is the reasoning I relied on to correctly call the Squall > Sora result in round 2 of the last character contest. I did the Guest write-up for the Analysis Crew and was the only one to pick Squall > Sora. The rest of the Crew had Squall > Yoshi.

Here are some interesting statistics from yesterday's battle, for those worried about the influence of hackers, vote-stuffers, and the like.

Wow, he seems to be making a big deal out of the match, even though Battletoads was nowhere near Final Fantasy or Super Mario World.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 1:11:46 AM | message detail
Yeah, one match for the characters is more important than the comparisons between the games in which LFF was already demonstrated in.

And it's not like Sora was SFFed into the freaking ground by Cloud or anything. Because they have different fanbases and all that certainly didn't happen
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 1:20:10 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 1:21:03 AM | message detail
I went with Squall > Sora too, and if I saw the MP choke coming, I'd likely have FFX>KH. My point here is Kingdom Hearts is still Square-Enix. A square-enix title featuring FF characters.

That's why Kingdom Hearts has a good overlap which it holds well to entrants like Squall and FFX and because it contains Tidus/Auron/Squall/Tifa/Cloud/Sephiroth; it's going to leach slightly off of FFX's popularity (because KH2 Auron > FFX Auron).

And had L-Block been of Laharl's level, not only would've Squall actually advanced and defeated Sonic in the Quarters due to no LFF holding him back, but Kirby would've even shown us that special upset a year earlier.

If you want to deny it, go ahead, but once that OMGRBYISDOINGWELLWITHTHEBORADVOTE crap is out of the way and we're well into the night vote, you'll see FFX closer to Ocarina than Inferior-to-Brawl and SAVEUS.Rat.
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paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 1:23:38 AM | message detail
And yeah, Cloud/Squall/Sora/Mewtwo. Squall still beat Sora in that SFF beating thus debunking the "KH has a completely separate fanbase to Final Fantasy" ****.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/3/2009 1:51:19 AM | message detail
My point here is Kingdom Hearts is still Square-Enix. A square-enix title featuring FF characters.

I know Squall is in Kingdom Hearts, which probably gives him a small amount of overlap with Sora. It still didn't allow Squall to SFF Sora. If Sora was being SFFed by Squall, then he shouldn't have been able to pull off a massive comeback on Squall. Sora actually cut about 1600 votes off a lead of about 4400 during the day vote.

If you want to deny it, go ahead, but once that OMGRBYISDOINGWELLWITHTHEBORADVOTE crap is out of the way and we're well into the night vote, you'll see FFX closer to Ocarina than Inferior-to-Brawl and SAVEUS.Rat.

That's a pretty bold prediction there. FFX will get off to a slow start, like every other FF game does. Combine that with Melee's strong Power Hour and it might have up to 3 hours at most to try and build a lead before FFX tries to comeback. Whatever lead it builds up before this should ensure that Melee is not down so much it wouldn't be able to pull a comeback on FFX during the day vote.

And yeah, Cloud/Squall/Sora/Mewtwo. Squall still beat Sora in that SFF beating thus debunking the "KH has a completely separate fanbase to Final Fantasy" ****.

Even in that match, Sora was pulling a comeback on Squall with the day vote. Sora cut off about 1500 votes from Squall's lead of about 2400. Sora performed better on Squall that time than it did in round 2.

Squall got 51.83% on Sora in round 2 and 51.01% on Sora in round 3. Cloud definitely SFFed Squall worse than Sora, but not enough to allow Sora to defeat Squall. Sora was probably affected by SFF too, but simply resisted it better than Squall could.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 1:52:49 AM | message detail
Wow, are you using a difference of less than a percent to demonstrate Sora's awesome SFF avoiding tendencies? XD
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 6/3/2009 1:54:38 AM | message detail
Man.. FF7 seems to be speeding up in % gain... Seems Europe is vote is kicking in, and the like ff7.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 6/3/2009 2:08:21 AM | message detail
Squall got 51.83% on Sora in round 2 and 51.01% on Sora in round 3. Cloud definitely SFFed Squall worse than Sora, but not enough to allow Sora to defeat Squall. Sora was probably affected by SFF too, but simply resisted it better than Squall could.

Yeah. But we can't tell much of anything from a difference of less than one percent.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 2:11:21 AM | message detail
Mario64 not letting LttP's lead exceed 800. Could be a good match if Mario64 takes the morning to cut it a bit and then the ASV
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CP724 | Posted 6/3/2009 2:15:47 AM | message detail
This 4:30-6:30 period really is ridiculous for FFVII, 50% updates against these guys? Jeez.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/3/2009 2:21:55 AM | message detail
Could be a good match if Mario64 takes the morning to cut it a bit and then the ASV

I'm thinking LttP wins the ASV over Mario 64. Especially after how Zelda 1 so easily destroyed Mario 3 during that time. LttP might have a weaker ASV than Zelda 1, but I'm not thinking it's enough to put it Mario 64 above LttP during that time.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 2:24:02 AM | message detail
Well I know we sure as well won't be seeing another 1300 vote comeback today
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paulg235 | Posted 6/3/2009 2:29:30 AM | message detail
FF7 is like the Link of the BGE here.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 6/3/2009 2:32:43 AM | message detail
Yikes it has 40% against these games. Lttp should be the third strongest game on this site, Sm64 could be the strongest Mario game which also puts it in the top 5, and I doubt there are 10 games that could win over FFVI.

Holy hell...
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/3/2009 2:46:20 AM | message detail
Good grief, not even FFVI is escaping this... thing's night vote. I don't even want to imagine how badly it's doing at the end of the day (this can't possibly mean FFVI has a better day vote than FFVII... can it?)
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/3/2009 3:06:09 AM | message detail
FF7 averaged 45.6% in those past 2 hours.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 3:39:30 AM | message detail
Looks like Mario 64 and LTTP are treading watner with the early morning vote. I said Mario could come back from 800 down by morning, that's just about how big LTTP's lead is here. Should be an interesting ASV.
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creativename | Posted 6/3/2009 4:24:16 AM | message detail
Morning vote is Mario's best vote, ASV is Zelda time. LttP could probably easily come back from 800 down with the ASV. Mario 64 ain't doing it. Match is pretty much over.

This comeback would be way more shocking than LoZ's, which was expected to turn the direction of the match around. The direction of this match will only get worse.

The two main things about this match are-
1) hoooly crap FF7. Have mercy on us.
2) this indicates FFX might be a non-factor in the finals, if it makes it - so Final Fantasy fans can try their best to get it there without worry :)
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:33:10 AM | message detail
Mario 64 isn't your typical Mario game (its fanbase is more America centered, younger, and more Nintendo/less universal than the others). Plus, we've seen it do better with the ASV than the morning every round it's been in a weekday match this contest. But yeah, I'm liking LTTP now as Mario is only stalling with the morning. Comeback still possible though.

LTTP by the hour:

1:00 | 52.36%
2:00 | 52.87%
3:00 | 52.80%
4:00 | 53.41%
5:00 | 52.44%
6:00 | 50.16%
7:00 | 49.56%
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/3/2009 4:37:45 AM | message detail
Morning vote is Mario's best vote, ASV is Zelda time.

Looks like it, based on these hourly trends.

Time | LTTP | FFVI | FFVII | Mario 64
1:00 | 25.53% | 14.44% | 36.80% | 23.23%
2:00 | 23.71% | 15.88% | 39.28% | 21.14%
3:00 | 23.19% | 15.21% | 40.88% | 20.73%
4:00 | 21.87% | 16.05% | 43.00% | 19.08%
5:00 | 21.21% | 14.25% | 45.31% | 19.24%
6:00 | 20.37% | 13.32% | 46.07% | 20.24%
7:00 | 21.85% | 12.74% | 43.17% | 22.24%

Funny trends for FFVI. It was dying with the late night vote.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/3/2009 4:50:39 AM | message detail
Actually, LTTP's probably going to bury Mario 64 with the DSV. If it were only an 800 vote lead at 3, Mario could do this, but if LTTP goes back to 52% hours for the DSV, this is over.
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Solid Muzza | Posted 6/3/2009 5:01:06 AM | message detail
500
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