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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 738

KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/2/2009 4:30:06 PM | message detail
That was a...37 vote cut, wasn't it? Pretty hefty given the lead SMB3 has, but the ASV should end in 30 minutes. SMB3 vs. LoZ, who you got for the night vote?
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 4:30:44 PM | message detail
100 votes cut in the last 30 minutes. Lead change in two hours then.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 4:31:11 PM | message detail
Mario's still the favorite here. Past 8 PM, it'll really start slowing Zelda down, and probably stop its momentum completely once 11 PM and the true second night vote comes around, not to mention any Mario clutch factor. Zelda really wants to get the lead before 11 here, and probably before 10 to stave off a Mario comeback at the end (don't trust you, Mario!).
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
BDawg | Posted 6/2/2009 4:31:39 PM | message detail
See now this is the LoZ I've been waiting for the whole contest! Disregarding the fact it's a handicap match and the game that beat it for two rounds is fodderized.
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Should I start running now?
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 4:31:51 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 4:32:07 PM | message detail
Zelda is 0-2 in close matches, for whatever it's worth.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 4:32:23 PM | message detail
14:29 - 14:45: Zelda Up 25
14:45 - 15:00: Zelda Up 14
15:00 - 15:15: Zelda Up 91
15:15 - 15:30: Zelda Up 31
15:30 - 15:45: Zelda Up 49
15:45 - 16:00: Zelda Up 85
16:00 - 16:15: Zelda Up 46
16:15 - 16:30: Zelda Up 56
16:30 - 16:45: Zelda Up 47
16:45 - 17:00: Zelda Up 37
17:00 - 17:15: Zelda Up 47
17:15 - 17:30: Zelda Up 47
17:30 - 17:45: Zelda Up 13
17:45 - 18:00: Zelda Up 5
18:00 - 18:15: Zelda Up 59
18:15 - 18:30: Zelda Up 35
18:30 - 18:45: Zelda Up 103 (damn son)
18:45 - 19:00: Zelda Up 84
19:00 - 19:15: Zelda Up 31
19:15 - 19:30: Zelda Up 71

Lead: 413
Votes Needed Per 5-Minute Update: 7.65
Votes Needed Per 15-Minute Update: 22.95

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/2/2009 4:32:26 PM | message detail
You don't want a small lead against Mario in the final hour. Ask Crono
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/2/2009 4:35:45 PM | message detail
"Mario clutch factor"

It's official, SMB3 vs. LoZ is gonna become an epic rivalry. :P

Still, I'm kinda hoping it goes down to the wire. If it comes down to it, I'm 100% confident about my fellow Mario fans ability to rally and get SMB3 a win.
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 4:37:56 PM | message detail
Hmm, I would like to point out to everyone that while SMW is going down with the ASV and SMB3 is tanking it, SMB is going slightly up. So either the ASV is being pushed along by really old gamers who are votin' for the good old days...or really young gamers who haven't played any of these and are just name-voting.

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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 4:39:20 PM | message detail
What are you talking about? SMB has been more or less constant here.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 4:41:54 PM | message detail
The second one. That's very very likely the reason Zelda is coming back from 1400 down in 4-ways against a fellow Nintendo game that is 2 years younger than it.

NES: SMB3 > SMB > LoZ > SMB2/Lost Levels
SNES: LTTP > SMW
N64: OOT >>> SM64 >> MM
GC: WW >>> SMS
Wii: TP >>> SMG
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psychward | Posted 6/2/2009 4:42:23 PM | message detail
401 votes down now. Come on Zelda.....
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Wall to Kentucky. Sig changed (:
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/2/2009 4:44:33 PM | message detail
Shoot, LoZ is about to get SMB3 below 400 votes. SMB3 needs to start stalling a bit NOW. Just enough to get to the end of the ASV, not much more.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/2/2009 4:46:27 PM | message detail
It's as if SMB3 heard me. It's stalling!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 4:51:29 PM | message detail
just got back. 400 votes now with 4 hours to go. hmm.
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/2/2009 4:52:27 PM | message detail
gg LoZ nice try
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/2/2009 4:53:56 PM | message detail
Losing only three votes when the last cut was of about 30 is just perfect. SMB3 might win this, after all. Any chances that the ASV has ended prematurely?
red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 4:59:20 PM | message detail
Nah, it's just a stall....random variation and all. But the ASV is due to end right about now and SMB3 is still up 400, so it should have a pretty big advantage.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
HaRRicH | Posted 6/2/2009 5:00:38 PM | message detail
Gotta favor LoZ:LttP tomorrow, but I think particularly highly of SM64's chances. A few (admittedly flawed at parts) thoughts that favor SM64:

--> This will be the first old-Nintendo game against the first new-Nintendo game we've seen. It won't be like FF7/CT with Square, but FF7 did beat CT much worse than it did in 2004 despite a recent CT-remake on the DS. SM64's the newer game this time and had its DS-port be a launch game, too. SM64-to-LoZ:LttP is no FF7-to-CT, but we do see age wasn't kind to CT. Time's been kinder to LoZ:LttP, but we don't know how well time treated older games in general (more on that in a sec).

--> CT beat SMB3, SMW, and LoZ:LttP in 2004, and SM64 has beaten CT twice this year (once with SMW2:YI, once with GE and FF7). Depending on how much you think CT dropped...

--> ...or depending on how much you think games from the 2D-era dropped, SM64 has a solid shot. We still don't have much proof older games hold up to newer games. SMB3 is THE game for the NES yet it's just not done like it should have this contest, and I think that game best defines the 2D-era (whether LoZ:LttP is stronger than it or not). If that's the case, we've only been seeing LoZ:LttP against games from its own era that it should have easily out-aged anyway, most of which have involved SFF (SMK, DKC twice, SM twice, LoZ:LA). SM64 has also mainly gone against games it's out-aged in that regard, but SM64 has also out-aged LoZ:LttP by being far more relevant in today's gaming world...

--> ...because it helped make today's gaming world. It won't be on SMB1-levels, but SM64 is the SMB1 of the 3D-era as far as respect goes and LoZ:LttP isn't going to be the SMB3 to SM64's SMB1.

--> FF3/6 shares the SNES with LoZ:LttP while SM64 has the N64 all to its lonesome. I doubt it makes a lot of difference (a SFF'd FF3/6 isn't going to do to LoZ:LttP what SMB1/LoZ are doing to SMB3, which isn't even a whole lot), but it can't hurt.


It should be close and LoZ:LttP should be the favorite, but there is some wiggle-room for SM64 to slip by. Tranny said it well earlier this contest when he said older games are going to have to earn their respect against newer games. Tomorrow and the championship will be their two best times to earn it, and we likely won't even see a 2D-game in the championship if SM64 beats LoZ:LttP...so let's see what they got. I expect a pretty iconic match regardless of the outcome.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 5:01:00 PM | message detail
The rest of the match still has asv trends, just not as dramatic. It can still do it.. and I hope it can!
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/2/2009 5:01:03 PM | message detail
Only 364 up now. Cure you LoZ and your 30 vote cuts! *shakes fist*
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/2/2009 5:03:19 PM | message detail
I think Mario 64 has more than a "little" wiggle room to pull an upset. I still think LTTP can and will win, but I won't be surprised at all if Mario pulls it off. It's already destined to have an inflated number for being up one day after today's match.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 5:03:50 PM | message detail
151 votes cut in the last hour. Lead change around 22:30 at that rate. That seems to be what it always points to.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 5:04:28 PM | message detail
I do like HaRR's point about this being the first 2-D vs. 3-D Nintendo match we've seen, too. It'll be interesting to see how different the Nintendo fanbase is there.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/2/2009 5:05:45 PM | message detail
*Curse. Curse my lack of decent proofreading! shakes fist again

Nice analysis, HaRRich, BTW. I think SM64 has a shot too. Not a big one (I'd put its chances at 65/35, at best), but it might get second anyway. It'd be the best contest result for me, since we'd get to see a free-for-all 3 Mario games fight twice, with the stronger entrants this time. Assuming SMB3 holds out, of course.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/2/2009 5:06:17 PM | message detail
Kind of an anticlimactic finish huh. LoZ comes all this way and it'll probably miss out by 100 votes or so.

Not as bad as Duck Hunt Vs. DK though
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/2/2009 5:07:17 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/1992-1997.png

I have to go do something now so no time to change anything.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 5:09:10 PM | message detail
SM64 has a chance, CT and LTTP are probably pretty close again now, after CTDS. IT'S FREAKING ZELDA has now failed me 3 times, so we can toss out that argument for LTTP. It'll have to win on its own merits, not because Zelda is higher than Mario on the Nintendo SFF ladder.
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 5:10:42 PM | message detail
ASV over?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 5:10:55 PM | message detail
Whoa, 17 vote gain for Mario 3. Hmmm...
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
HaRRicH | Posted 6/2/2009 5:13:46 PM | message detail
Awesome pic, Zen, though I gotta say LoZ:LttP is clearly helped the most with an updated portrait. It's fair and looks bad-ass though, so hey...hopefully it's picked.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 5:15:40 PM | message detail
I don't think Bacon has a lot of pic choices for that match. Zen's is only the 3rd I've seen posted on B8.

Zelda 1 responds!

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 5:15:43 PM | message detail
False alarm, but those random Mario 3 spikes could prevent Zelda 1 from winning.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/2/2009 5:15:54 PM | message detail
For future reference (as Kefka has no good pics):

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/dissidia_kefka_pallazzo_ex.png
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
psychward | Posted 6/2/2009 5:16:11 PM | message detail
26 vote cut for Zelda that time. Damn this is gonna be close.

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Wall to Kentucky. Sig changed (:
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 5:16:31 PM | message detail
Dissidia Kefka, I presume?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 5:16:58 PM | message detail
Dissidia EX Form Kefka, yeah.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/2/2009 5:17:07 PM | message detail
Oh yes. SMB3 vote gain! The night vote is starting (hopefully)! SMB3 should have this in the bag now.

Zen: The match pic is awesome for everyone, 'cept FF6. Not only is its updated pic practically invisible, the chocobo run isn't exactly a memorable moment or an eye-catcher.

The rest is golden though. A battle-ready Mario ready to go, a good FF7 pic with an androgynous Cloud, and of course, Link and a victory pose. Takes an 8/10 from me, with an advantage for Mario over Link...albeit a slight one.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/2/2009 5:18:49 PM | message detail
Scratch what I said. Either Zelda is just running out of gas and getting its last big cuts...or this is going down to the wire. Either way, this will probably be one heck of an ending for one heck of a match.
tennisboy213 | Posted 6/2/2009 5:19:10 PM | message detail
sorry to be a newb, but what does asv stand for?
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 5:19:26 PM | message detail
After school vote.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
psychward | Posted 6/2/2009 5:19:48 PM | message detail
Im gonna guess after school vote.
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Wall to Kentucky. Sig changed (:
The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/2/2009 5:20:02 PM | message detail
whoa wtf was that.

Zelda decimating
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 5:20:07 PM | message detail
woo massive cut
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 5:20:49 PM | message detail
...After Detention Vote surge?

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 5:21:04 PM | message detail
Zelda making up for lost time!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/2/2009 5:21:16 PM | message detail
Zen: The match pic is awesome for everyone, 'cept FF6. Not only is its updated pic practically invisible, the chocobo run isn't exactly a memorable moment or an eye-catcher.

SON OF A SUB-MARINER is one of my favorite things about FFIII, and if Bacon is desperate enough for pics, it's now one of his favorite things too.

The updated pic is only 80% transparent as opposed to everything else being 60% transparent. I'm not going to bring it up to 90% because then it stands out too much.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/2/2009 5:21:41 PM | message detail
wow zelda

where did that come from?
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/2/2009 5:22:15 PM | message detail
I can't believe it's cut 1100 against another Nintendo game.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!