GameFAQs Contests

So Zelda 1 has a chance after all. Ulti es dum.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Who are you to doubt El Zelda?
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Official King of the Brawl Online Board
http://i531.photobucket.com/albums/dd351/Seterian/WisewordsfromLordVivvy.jpg

Go FFVII > Mario 64 tomorrow so we can get a Mario World vs. Mario 64 showdown!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

On one hand, Zelda advancing here gives me hope that SMW makes the finals and keeps my bracket alive (kinda) since at least LttP won't make it. One the other hand, I would get half points which I kind of don't deserve due to the idiotic scoring system.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

Zelda's going faster than ever now.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

IT'S FREAKING ZELDA

But yeah.....I want to see the FFVII vs. Mario match too.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Even if Zelda advances here, I still wouldn't drop LttP being in the final as a possibility, because next round Zelda's gonna be doing exactly what Mario 1 is doing here.
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif

From: Yesmar | #004
since at least LttP won't make i

You think the presence of LoZ will let the mighty LttP lose against that puny SMW mortal? HAH!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

erm, won't LoZ winning this hurt OoT's chances of winning? Or do I have no idea what I'm talking about >.>
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Xialon, 80 Blood Elf Priest , Twisting Nether
Xialoh, 80 Blood Elf Rogue, Twisting Nether

SoCal has elvish surfer-nerds CONFIRMED.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

It all depends on how close Mario 64 gets to LTTP tonight. If Mario 64 can get something like 48% on LTTP, I think Mario World could upend it next round if Zelda 1 is there.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

LTTP ought to be a (small) cut above Mario 3 and World. Not sure where 64 stands, but LTTP could beat it in a really close match and still win next round as Zelda 1 gets fodderized.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Lets draw the line in the sand right now.



If LoZ wins this match, who has it actually stopping ALttP next round?



The side that thinks LoZ will get SFFed so much it won't matter


MWC


The side that thinks LoZ will effect ALttP enough for SMW to go on.

Yesmar
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton

Based on the last hour LoZ will take the lead at the 20:50 update

Based on the last half hour LoZ will take the lead at the 20:25 update
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384

14:29 - 14:45: Zelda Up 25
14:45 - 15:00: Zelda Up 14
15:00 - 15:15: Zelda Up 91
15:15 - 15:30: Zelda Up 31
15:30 - 15:45: Zelda Up 49
15:45 - 16:00: Zelda Up 85
16:00 - 16:15: Zelda Up 46
16:15 - 16:30: Zelda Up 56
16:30 - 16:45: Zelda Up 47
16:45 - 17:00: Zelda Up 37
17:00 - 17:15: Zelda Up 47
17:15 - 17:30: Zelda Up 47
17:30 - 17:45: Zelda Up 13
17:45 - 18:00: Zelda Up 5
18:00 - 18:15: Zelda Up 59
18:15 - 18:30: Zelda Up 35
18:30 - 18:45: Zelda Up 103 (damn son)
18:45 - 19:00: Zelda Up 84

Lead: 515
Votes Needed Per 5-Minute Update: 8.58
Votes Needed Per 15-Minute Update: 25.75


At this point Zelda could limp its way to victory for the rest of the match.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

LoZ would make SMW/LoZ:LttP closer...but I don't think LoZ:LttP loses anyway. As mentioned, look at SMB1 compared to SMB3/SMW. It'll be something similar with LoZ against LoZ:LttP, and I don't think SMW is that close to LoZ:LttP.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

From: Xialoh | #009
erm, won't LoZ winning this hurt OoT's chances of winning? Or do I have no idea what I'm talking about >.>

There is no game OoT would want in the finals more than LoZ. Adventure like beatdown would be coming.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton

If LoZ wins this match, who has it actually stopping ALttP next round?

Well this round I have LoZ > SMB3 while next round I have FFVII > SMB3 so take that as you will.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384

Zelda 1 is down 515 with 5 hours to go, so a little more than 100 per hour will do it. Obviously, it'll be difficult to do that in the last couple of hours, so it'll need to be pretty close going into it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Looks like Bacon needs pics for tomorrow still!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

That said, I don't want to definitively pick a side yet. I'll wait until tomorrow for that, please. =)
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BT > Harrich
lol me

LTTP, on the other hand, is OOT's worst possible game to bring into the final. Bring on FFVII > RBY > OOT > LTTP! (Sorry, OOT, I love you, but I want to see this happen.)
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I'm actually relatively certain Zelda 1 holds up worse in LttP's presence than Mario 1 is here.
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

Damnit Bacon, 5 Pokemon pics wasn't enough?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Best update of the match for Zelda.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0

I dunno how Zelda 1 holds up worse against 1 Zelda game than Mario 1 does against two.

Well, let's see...Mario 1 has 26.30% on World. LA got 25.34% on LTTP last round.

So yeah, maybe it does.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

LoZ should hold up a little better than Mario 1 IMO simply because it's not facing 2 big name Zeldas, only 1. And it at least has the quirk of being the only NES Zelda that people care about. Mario 1 can't say the same, it's not even the favorite NES game.

But the fact that it's weaker to begin with and it'll still get crushed is enough for LttP to LAUGH AT THE PUNY SMW
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

And Zelda is going to calm down soon. There's usually a big push for the ASV game at this time, and the ASV always does fade past 8 PM.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Sweet googly moogly, this is relentless.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

This match is proving that Zelda 1 rides entirely on "Well, it's Zelda/not Mario" votes. Mario 1 at least has the whole "Saving the industry" thing going for it. If Zelda 1 advances here, it's finishing below 8% next round, unless Mario 64 beats LttP.
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http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3230/takerface.gif

Mario 3's lead peaked at 1458 around 1:45, but Zelda didn't really start cutting consistently until an hour later.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Well this round I have LoZ > SMB3 while next round I have FFVII > SMB3 so take that as you will.

I do too, actually, but I don't think this is so much SMW impressing as SMB3 being underwhelming after its killer R1-blowout (though it should be plenty of both things). SMB3 just feels like it gets the Solid-2004 Award this contest. Tomorrow will be good to see where LoZ:LttP stands against FF7, and I don't think it's looked as "bad" as SMB3 has so far. Plus, if this is all SMB1 (and LoZ) is doing to SMB3 against SMW, I really doubt LoZ is going to do much to LoZ:LttP against SMW now.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Ummm Zelda, wtf are you doing. Wrong way!
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0

Yeah, the funny thing is that I'll get more points if Zelda beats Mario 3 here than if Mario 3 holds on, though it'll effectively kill my bracket anyway if Mario 3 loses since I've got it advancing next round as well.

So...FFVII/LTTP/Mario 3/Mario World: Does Mario 3 beat World there?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

1:00 | 44.90%
2:00 | 47.23%
3:00 | 46.57%
4:00 | 46.58%
5:00 | 48.49%
6:00 | 44.97%
7:00 | 51.03%
8:00 | 51.32%
9:00 | 49.60%
10:00 | 50.00%
11:00 | 49.60%
12:00 | 48.60%
13:00 | 51.27%
14:00 | 49.32%
15:00 | 51.18%
16:00 | 54.12%
17:00 | 52.79%
18:00 | 51.82%
19:00 | 54.72%

Best hour for Zelda of the match. Also, at 3 PM, SMW's lead on Zelda was 2626. Now, it is 2560. Zelda winning the ASV outright indeed!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

What is this large Mario 3 gain I see. Ridiculous. Stop the cheaters stop the cheaters
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Heh, Mario 3 cut World there, too. It gets a few of those random spikes here and there.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

So...FFVII/LTTP/Mario 3/Mario World: Does Mario 3 beat World there?

I'd venture on yes.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

i'm not sure I like the argument that LttP can win *if* LoZ gets fodderized. While you can use that to make arguments after the fact about removing the game can do, it doesn't determine who wins. If LttP wins, it probably would have won regardless. It's not like there's some set percentage that gets jumbled around.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

It'll be time for Final Fantasy and Zelda to show this upstart Mario just who reigns supreme on this site!

FFVII 50%
LTTP 25%
SMB3 13%
SMW 12%

Aw yeah (and I'm kidding about the numbers if it wasn't obvious).
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

If it's SMB3/SMW/LoZ:LttP, I'll take LoZ:LttP > SMB3 > SMW. LoZ:LttP will be quite a bit harder on SMW than FF2/4 was on it or SMB1/LoZ are on SMB3.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Just because someone said you could limp your way to victory now doesn't mean you should start limping LoZ!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

If Mario 3 wins (and that's a big if), I'll say Mario survived Zelda more than anything else. It wouldn't have beat Zelda at all, just survived it.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

That'd be about right. Sometimes you don't win. You just survive.

Like Donkey Kong.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

What does everyone think about SM64's chances of advancing tomorrow? Does it have a shot? How much would it need to overperform to pull off the upset? It's probably my most anticipated match of the contest, simply because SM64 is probably my favorite game ever and REALLY deserves to get to the next round. Plus, the percentages of the weakest entrant amongst the three Mario games would be something else, given how FF7 would probably gobble up at least 40% of the votes.

Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Mario 64 definitely has a shot. It all depends on how far Chrono Trigger has fallen. I wasn't impressed enough with what Mario 64 did on FFVII last round to say it's the favorite though. I guess you could blame that on GE though.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Zelda only cut 3 votes in the last 20 minutes. Hopefully it's not stalling out.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Aaaaaaaaaaaaand we're back at it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Damn Mario stuffers making me worried

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http://thengamer.com/guru/