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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 737

UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/2/2009 1:15:23 PM | message detail
SMB3 clearly being stronger than SMW

Wait, how would today prove otherwise? Mario World is strong, but it's also getting pretty lucky here. I'd call Mario 3, Mario 1 and Zelda 1 the three strongest NES games by far, and all three are in the same poll. It's taking an ungodly team effort to beat Mario 3 here.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 1:15:25 PM | message detail
Don't worry, Ulti. We still love you!

14:29 - 14:45: Zelda Up 25
14:45 - 15:00: Zelda Up 14
15:00 - 15:15: Zelda Up 91
15:15 - 15:30: Zelda Up 31
15:45 - 16:00: Zelda Up 49
16:00 - 16:15: Zelda Up 85
16:15 - 16:30: Zelda Up 46

12 votes an update needed to win.

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 6/2/2009 1:15:46 PM | message detail
I have no clue how Zelda can't beat Mario 1, then manages to scare Mario 3 of all things. With 3 Marios in the poll, you'd think they'd all SFF Zelda into dust.

I'm also confused.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/2/2009 1:16:05 PM | message detail
I'm going to say...four people picked that.

All four people voted for Yoshi in the Mario-polls, too.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/2/2009 1:16:21 PM | message detail
http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/7176/umad23xv.jpg

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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/2/2009 1:17:09 PM | message detail
Mario 1's a bit of a fraud, I think. The only reason it did so well is because it had no competition in the early rounds. Yeah, I know it's got its two worst possibly opponents in this match, but it's still a little funky.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 1:18:18 PM | message detail
With another SNES and another Genesis game in the poll, SMB3 beat SMW by 700+ votes.

With two other NES games in the poll, SMW is looking to win by almost 2000 votes.

Debatable, but I'd give the edge to World.

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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 1:19:14 PM | message detail
I have no clue how Zelda can't beat Mario 1, then manages to scare Mario 3 of all things. With 3 Marios in the poll, you'd think they'd all SFF Zelda into dust.

I'm also confused.


Easy Mario has more overlap with Mario than Zelda.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/2/2009 1:20:13 PM | message detail
I'd kill for a 1v1 match with Mario 3 and Mario World right now.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 1:20:18 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 6/2/2009 1:21:40 PM | message detail
Today alone doesn't prove otherwise. Today and their R3-match together prove otherwise. They've had two super-close matches where each one had a rather small advantage over the other through their common opponents and won probably because of them. Nothing indicates anymore that SMB3 is legitimately ahead of SMW by any measure for sure, much less easily. For all intents and purposes, they've got to be considered equals. If SMB3 advances today and SM64 advances tomorrow, then I would say whoever wins between SM3/SMW next round would be the favorite one-on-one. Otherwise, we'll never know because I don't trust SMW with LoZ:LttP in the poll and SMB3/SMW so far this contest look quite even.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
paulg235 | Posted 6/2/2009 1:23:06 PM | message detail
Okay, now I'm worried about SMB3. WTF? You get three new games announced and still choke to a franchise which has nothing new.
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 1:23:59 PM | message detail
Vote totals are heading for about 116k
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
HaRRicH | Posted 6/2/2009 1:24:31 PM | message detail
LoZ's officially under 1,000...it's at 999!
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BT > Harrich
lol me
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 1:24:44 PM | message detail
Here's the thing: If Ulti's NES theory is true...WHY IS ZELDA COMING BACK ON MARIO 3?
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Master Moltar | Posted 6/2/2009 1:24:58 PM | message detail
woah, zelda may actually do this, good show
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 57 - Bracket: SMB3 > SMW - Vote: SMW (279/384)
charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 1:25:36 PM | message detail
Here's the thing: If Ulti's NES theory is true...WHY IS ZELDA COMING BACK ON MARIO 3?

Again Mario has more overlap with Mario than Zelda.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 1:26:03 PM | message detail
NES SFF!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 1:26:25 PM | message detail
so Leon, say SMB3 doesnt even advance

do you agree then that the NES games hurt it
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 1:26:28 PM | message detail
Zelda coming back after three new Mario games being announced would be awesome.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 1:27:07 PM | message detail
Zelda coming back after three new Mario games being announced would be awesome.

Zelda fanboys are obviously coming to the site in droves to complain about no Zelda game announced.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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transience | Posted 6/2/2009 1:27:11 PM | message detail
I can act however I damn please. I got **** on for saying this last round (especially by people thinking Zelda was going to place), and I'll gloat all I want :D

sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of these 40 vote cuts
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/2/2009 1:27:30 PM | message detail
Current lead: 999
Updates remaining: 91
Votes per update: 10.98

Certainly possible, but I think Zelda will fizzle in a few more hours.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 1:27:46 PM | message detail
wheres red sox to gloat over a comeback attempt he called
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/2/2009 1:28:28 PM | message detail
I never thought I'd see Mario 3 acting like Donkey Kong. He's just dying.
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 6/2/2009 1:28:30 PM | message detail
seems to be about 130 votes every half-hour

honestly, this will be close...the ASV ends in about two and half hours, right? that's 650 more votes...can zelda make up 350 at night? we'll see

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HaRRicH | Posted 6/2/2009 1:28:47 PM | message detail
How many votes per update does LoZ need to advance now, and what's the projection for it at 8:00?
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BT > Harrich
lol me
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/2/2009 1:29:00 PM | message detail
Doesn't Mario 3 have a very good evening vote and Zelda a very bad one?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 1:29:07 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'll admit to red sox that I was at least wrong about Zelda 1 getting to 49% here. At the very least, it'll do that.

So let's say we get Mario World/Zelda 1/LttP/FFVII: What happens?

Mario World/Zelda 1/Mario 64/FFVII: What happens?
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creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 1:29:11 PM | message detail
Here's the thing: If Ulti's NES theory is true...WHY IS ZELDA COMING BACK ON MARIO 3?

Hardly his theory considering like 90% thought the same thing! :)

And that has nothing to do with trends. We knew LoZ had the best ASV vote here, not a surprise at all.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 1:29:35 PM | message detail
honestly, this will be close...the ASV ends in about two and half hours, right? that's 650 more votes...can zelda make up 350 at night?

It doesn't really end till 8 PM, with the final 4 hours having deluted ASV trends
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 1:30:03 PM | message detail
Mario 3 had a very good second night vote last round, yes.

Zelda 1 beat Mario 1 outright with the second night vote and even worse than it did in the ASV.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 1:30:36 PM | message detail
Haha, I told you the stats topic had to call one match wrongly in the first half hour every year!

Unfortunately, SMW is killing SMB3 a lot worse than I expected, so even if Zelda finishes the comeback, we'll end up with SMW > LoZ.......which I think eliminates me from the Guru. LoZ > SMW, LoZ > SMB3, and SMW > SMB3 all keep me alive....
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/2/2009 1:30:37 PM | message detail
Man, if Zelda caps off the comeback, we could have Super Mario World in the finals.

That would be awesome.

Though if LttP beats SM64 (and that's far more likely than the other way around) I imagine it'll kill LoZ pretty badly. Just looking at SMB today affirms this. And I really don't think the gap between LttP and the mess o' Mario is as small as some people make it out to be. <_<
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transience | Posted 6/2/2009 1:30:55 PM | message detail
with how strong Mario has been in the first hour and how awesome Zelda is afterschool, I'd have thought this was expected. I called for it to be a close match, but coming back 1500 votes on a Mario game seems pretty unlikely. that said, it's doing it -- go Zelda!

Mario 3 out in round 4. crazy.
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/2/2009 1:31:31 PM | message detail
If I recall every Zelda match ever, it dies off a lot at either 8 pm or 10 pm. Something around there.
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creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 1:31:49 PM | message detail
I think LttP advances even with LoZ because of the lack of LFF we've seen with the universal playrate games.

But SMW might be real close to LttP. It could also get bandwagon support. SMW is going to have a great board vote next round. Could lead FF7 for a time.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/2/2009 1:31:53 PM | message detail
Way to beat me to the question, yo! Where is it looking to be at by 8:00 though? I imagine that should be a pretty decisive time to judge how the rest of this match goes, assuming the projection's accurate.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 1:32:43 PM | message detail
14:29 - 14:45: Zelda Up 25
14:45 - 15:00: Zelda Up 14
15:00 - 15:15: Zelda Up 91
15:15 - 15:30: Zelda Up 31
15:30 - 15:45: Zelda Up 49
15:45 - 16:00: Zelda Up 85
16:00 - 16:15: Zelda Up 46
16:15 - 16:30: Zelda Up 56

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/2/2009 1:32:59 PM | message detail
If we're gonna get crazy... suppose Zelda pulls this off and Mario 64 defies the loooong odds and beats LttP.

FFVII
SM64
SMW
LoZ

Can we have the original Zelda in the finals? Ocarina should kill that worse than FFVII would take out FFX.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 1:33:13 PM | message detail
For the record, 25 people in the Guru have Mario World advancing today. 3 have it going to the finals.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 1:33:53 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3494&type=2&seconds=60&max=0
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 1:35:00 PM | message detail
I think whoever wins tomorrow advances to the final. Mario 64 could be the strongest Mario game, and if it beats LTTP, I'd say it is. Zelda 1 isn't going to bother LTTP all that much against Mario World.

And I've been saying all contest that SMB3's day vote is bad- it was the #1 NES game by far, and gets a ton of support from NES gamers. Younger gamers do not feel the same way about it, and Zelda has been way bigger than Mario since OOT.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 1:35:33 PM | message detail
I don't think Zelda 1 could beat Mario World AND Mario 64 if it's not beating Mario World AND Mario 3 today, but who knows? I'd like to see how Mario World and Mario 64 compare without Mario 3's presence though. Solve the debate once and for all!

If I recall every Zelda match ever, it dies off a lot at either 8 pm or 10 pm. Something around there.

This is not true. Most of them do. Zelda 1 doesn't. It's actually done slightly better with the second night vote than the ASV two out of three times, and the third time it didn't drop much.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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creativename | Posted 6/2/2009 1:35:43 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy XIV...another MMO?

God why has Square's decision making sucked so bad the past few years.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 1:36:02 PM | message detail
Zelda actually had a very good (as in, better than the ASV) SNV against Mario 1. But that's Mario 1, who knows how things are different here.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/2/2009 1:36:36 PM | message detail
FFXIII looks great though!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/2/2009 1:37:10 PM | message detail

From: creativename | Posted: 6/2/2009 4:35:43 PM | #395
Final Fantasy XIV...another MMO?

God why has Square's decision making sucked so bad the past few years.


Glad I'm not alone on this. Final Fantasy 11 is the worst FF game in the entire series, including all spinoffs. And now those idiots want to make ANOTHER one?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 1:37:20 PM | message detail
It's all about Metroid M and Mario Galaxy 2 and Golden Sun 3 aw yeah

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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 1:37:48 PM | message detail
Zelda's SNV is bad (maybe not Zelda 1's though), but Mario's is just as bad or worse. Zelda 1 has always increased through to the end of the poll against every Mario game it's gone against.
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