GameFAQs Contests

Mario 64 advancing would probably give Ocarina a good shot at winning this thing if it still folds like it did back in 2004.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

I think SM64 gives LoZ:OoT a solid shot against FF7 if FFX is there...but otherwise, I think any game left that advances with FF7 is enough to cost it, especially LoZ:LttP.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

I know it's your opinion but seriously this doesn't make you look smart or cool. Just stupid.

It was a joke, man. Chill out.

SMW has this. Seems the NES game theory was correct

Yeah, because Mario World swinging 1000-1500 votes couldn't be random variation or day to day silliness. NES THEORY VALIDATED
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Yeah, because Mario World swinging 1000-1500 votes couldn't be random variation or day to day silliness. NES THEORY VALIDATED

Its likely gonna be over 2000 when its over, and no thats not random variation. Its the NES games hurting SMB3.
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2000 votes is something like 1.7% of the votes, that's still random variation.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384

I always figured random variation was like 500 or under, if its more then that its other factors at play
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I really don't think this proves anything. Not enough of a swing to be anything conclusive.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Yeah, it's not conclusive, gotta agree. I do think it's because of the NES-games, but there's not much need to get in a fuss about it -- they're still pretty much even and it's hard to say what daily variation does to these games.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Seems like Zelda is just gonna stall SMB3 all day. They've been in the 1300 range since 6 AM
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Comeback time.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

lol smw gained back all the cuts smb3 made in one update
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These trends are on par with last match's. SMB3 has a great Power Hour, bad night, does a little better in the morning/DSV. The ASV should favor SMW by a good bit.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Whoa, massive update for Mario World. Must be that New Super Mario Bros. Wii announcement.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

What does FFVII get tomorrow? 35ish percent would be good methinks.

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I will bury you.

NEW SUPER MARIO BROS 3

WATCH MATCH TRENDS
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

New Metroid game means Samus beats Sephiroth this year book it
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

I dunno about the idea of Team Ninja working on my Metroid.

I just hope they don't ruin Samus more than nintendo did when they made Zero Mission....
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

Huh? New Mario game? New Metroid game?

From: LeonhartFour | #266
New Metroid game means Samus beats Sephiroth this year book it

samus would beat seph since 2005 this is nothing new
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 57 - Bracket: SMB3 > SMW - Vote: SMW (279/384)

Okay, Samus beats Mario book it
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Not only was I correct about Zelda 1 having no chance to place, but I was also correct about Mario World winning this match because of two other NES games dragging Mario 3 down, as opposed to last round when we had Sonic and FF4 dragging Mario World down. This was horribly obvious after last round.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Ulti, the moment you stop acting like Black Turtle, we're all ears.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

SMW is performing 2% better and may be even more by the end of the match. I think that's the very limit of what you'd call random variance.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

I can act however I damn please. I got **** on for saying this last round (especially by people thinking Zelda was going to place), and I'll gloat all I want :D
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

The only people at this point arguing random variation don't want to admit they were wrong the NES titles hurt SMB3.
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From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 6/2/2009 2:37:03 PM | #273
SMW is performing 2% better and may be even more by the end of the match. I think that's the very limit of what you'd call random variance.

This is not random variance. 1 SNES game and 3 NES games. Who do you think suffers the most?

Last round: 1 NES game, 1 Genesis game, 2 SNES games. Mario World losing last round and winning this one is not some random variation coincidence. Zelda 1 and Mario 1 are leeching Mario 3 to a loss. It's plain as day.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 6/2/2009 2:39:01 PM | #275
The only people at this point arguing random variation don't want to admit they were wrong the NES titles hurt SMB3.

Which is unbelievably ridiculous. Just look at the freaking poll compared to last round.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

SMW is performing 2% better and may be even more by the end of the match. I think that's the very limit of what you'd call random variance.

When you're this close together I would say more 4% is the limit of random variance. It seems like a lot, but we all assume that either this match or last round's is the "average" result, when they could really be the two ends of the spectrum.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

Not that I'm saying that that's what I think this is. Just that it's not crazy to have random variation this high.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

FF4 dragging Mario World down

Uh...just a *slight* stretch here :)

Not only was I correct about Zelda 1 having no chance to place,

Eh? That sounds pretty silly considering how close Zelda 1 will be to SMB3 by the end of this.
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LoZ and SMB3 will be a 51/49 match by the end. Someone owes Redsox an apology!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

You're gloating about calling an 'obvious' match (where the top 3 games are within 4% of each other, I might add), despite the fact that very few results in this contest have been 'obvious'. You're doing so in an annoying fashion not unlike Black Turtle or pre-RBY/MGS creativename. And you're doing it for a match where the Crew majority was SMW>SMB3 regardless, so you're basically just blowing your own smoke for reasons I don't understand.

We don't want to hear it, and 2/3 of your posts in these topics seems to consist of it, lately.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

What do people mean by random variation? Is that phrase being used to mean the same thing as margin of error, or does it mean something else? The margin of error isn't going to be more than half a percentage point with vote totals this large.
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Better to ask than to speculate

I would say more 4% is the limit of random variance

I'd say more like .4%. 4% is insane.

4% is more like year-to-year random variation, not week to week. Different days of the week and such might cause shifts of a few hundred votes, but it really won't be too much.

I'd say this variation might be chaotic, in that it's not really predictable and not necessarily caused by what we think it's caused by - but really, I don't see how anyone can reasonably argue for something other than NES overlap disproportionately hurting SMB3 here. It seems fairly clear cut.
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You're doing so in an annoying fashion not unlike Black Turtle or pre-RBY/MGS creativename.

You were the annoying one though! :)

But, what does RBY/MGS have to do with it anyway? I would've picked RBY>MGS since round 1. That result surprised no one.
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Well, Sephiroth did drop from 41% on Cloud to 38% on Cloud in the Battle Royale after the removal of Samus. I find it hard to believe that it was Samus's removal that caused it since Cloud+Sephiroth's votes didn't add up to any more than they did before and Link clearly took pretty much off all those votes. By definition I wouldn't call it "random variance" since there are probably reasons behind it. But all those unscene factors together can contribute to a decent swing without good reason, might as well include them altogether.

But when you have a reason in front of you, I see no reason not to take it
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Gotta back KP here. I'm not going to knock your logic since the picks were right, but LoZ's a lot closer than you're insinuating and SMW beating SMB3 looked more than reasonable after how close they were last round. I mean, SMB3 is probably going to end up closer to LoZ than SMW...and even if it doesn't, LoZ is closer to SMB3 this round than it was to SMB1 in either round. It's hard to say we LoZ-backers were entirely wrong.

Come on bro, you don't have to be the loudest person in every controversial match you get right!
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Hmm...

So who you guys got in SMW vs. SMB3 after today? I'd say SMW by a hair, as it's beating SMB3 worse than SMB3 beat it under similar circumstance,s but its hard to tell.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

SMB3/SMW, head-to-head and one-on-one? I'll take SMW almost completely based on preference alone; there's just not a good way to tell. That said, I think SMB3/SMW has been a good sign that even classics and elites can let old age catch up to them. In a poll with just them, I think the extra casuals will be a bit more likely to vote for SMW, even if it's not that much younger. It was still a pack-in for a younger and more favored system, so...that'd be my guess, plus, again, I love the hell out of it despite never owning a SNES (well, I did for two weeks...stupid used system-purchases!)

Nobody can say for sure though, don't trust the people that act like they know for a fact who would win!
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BT > Harrich
lol me

I'd say more like .4%. 4% is insane.

Maybe if a match happens in a vacuum, that might be the case, but there's so many other factors that affect the poll, even in 1 vs. 1 that .4% seems way too small.

And I mean 4% only from one extreme to the other. Variation from the average score is probably only 2% one way, but you can't just assume that any given poll is giving you the middle result, so you have to adjust for the extremes.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

Woah, two big cuts from Zelda 1 to start off the ASV.

It needs 13 votes an update to win. Hmm...

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

I think SMB3 is neutrally stronger by a slight margin. It's not set in stone though.

And with another year or two of aging, SMW probably overtakes it.

Well, Sephiroth did drop from 41% on Cloud to 38% on Cloud in the Battle Royale after the removal of Samus.

That's not what I'd label random variance because it wasn't the same match. There could be chaotic stuff with Samus' fanbase there, or how Samus interacts with Link's voters even. Stuff we don't understand, chaotic stuff - but not random variance in the sense that if you repeat the same exact match the result will vary a lot from one day to the next, without any reason whatsoever. I believe that sort of variance is pretty low.

Chaotic variance, where something actually causes it, can be much higher. And one could say that it's that sort of variance that's helping SMW - but, it's not really that chaotic because we have the completely expected reason for it in front of our faces.
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Oh god, do this LoZ. This is the comeback we sorely need.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

I know I jumped ship from SMB3 to Zelda, hurray for anecdotal evidence.
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Should I start running now?

SMB3 is now closer to LoZ than SMW
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even in 1 vs. 1 that .4% seems way too small.

In 1v1, variance much larger than that from one day to the next day can only happen because of pics - e.g., one match is Solid **** vs. Sora, the other match is the famous Snake stalking Sora pic. That's somewhat of an unusual case though.

With "normal" pic difference, where the pics of both days are different but not anything that will affect the match in an obvious way, the results should be very close.

And with the same opponents and the same pics, the percentage difference will be almost non-existant. We're talking barely into the hundreds in terms of vote margin differences.
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Also, with the random variation-stuff, I don't know how a neutral match's random variation compares to a SFF-battle's, or how a SFF-battle of two's to a SFF-battle of four...but I wouldn't think it would do nothing to the range of the variation, either. New factors were brought into play, and -- while today's a good sign that SMB3 was hurt a little bit by these new factors -- we can't fairly say or completely assume that's all there is to it. Today's match is tapping into a rather specific (though large and not rare) demographic that just doesn't reach out like many other matches do: old-school Nintendo. I figure that would change the range of variation some way or another.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

And then there's the triforce of 32 vote cut.
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Should I start running now?

LoZ has cut about 140 votes in last 25 minutes. At this pace, it will win. :D
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
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Just needs 12 votes per update now...
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0