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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 737

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/1/2009 11:18:23 PM | message detail
The reason Zelda does so poorly during the 3-7 AM block and FF does so well has less to do with Asians or Europeans voting and more to with most Americans and Canadians being asleep. Therefore, it is unfair to designate that block as a "European vote" or an "Asian vote", since Europeans and Asians vote 24 hours a day as well.

Note that I said the night vote was dominated by Asia. That doesn't mean that the American and Canadian voters have completely died down to the point where there aren't any Americans and Canadians voting during the night vote. The ratio of Asian voters to American/Canadian voters is simply higher during the night vote.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 11:21:57 PM | message detail
SMB3 finally showing some life. 4 straight cuts.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/1/2009 11:23:25 PM | message detail
4 straight cuts for SMB3, including a SMB3's biggest one since the Power Hour ended. See, I know my trends here. SMW was still going strong for about an hour after the Power Hour ended, as that second hour still has slight Power Hour trends to it.
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/1/2009 11:25:42 PM | message detail
I agree that there may be a shift when the world's preferences are vastly different from the North American preferences, but when the rest of the world's preferences are only 53.5% in favor of one game, and the rest of the world world only accounts for 25% of the total vote, and only 20% or so of the rest of the world votes in that time frame anyway, I doubt the shift will be anything earth-shattering here.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 11:27:08 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #204
I agree that there may be a shift when the world's preferences are vastly different from the North American preferences, but when the rest of the world's preferences are only 53.5% in favor of one game, and the rest of the world world only accounts for 25% of the total vote, and only 20% or so of the rest of the world votes in that time frame anyway, I doubt the shift will be anything earth-shattering here.


Remember how Monkey Island turned like 500-600 during the europe vote against simcity, when they were at incredibly low votals already?
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/1/2009 11:32:24 PM | message detail
Monkey Island also outright beat SMB3 in some European countries.
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/1/2009 11:34:01 PM | message detail
Monkey Island also outright beat SMB3 in some European countries.


I bet Vietnam was one of them.

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MetricTrout | Posted 6/1/2009 11:34:08 PM | message detail
Well yeah. Monkey Island drew almost a quarter of the European vote. In fact, Monkey Island would score 71.5% on SimCity directly. There is no such disparity here.

I am not saying the European vote during the dead hours do not matter. I am saying they do not matter here.
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/1/2009 11:36:27 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LordTMax | Posted 6/1/2009 11:37:22 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | Posted: 6/1/2009 11:36:27 PM | #1009
Monkey Island also outright beat SMB3 in some European countries.


I bet Vietnam was one of them.



That was priceless.


Win
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 11:37:49 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #208
Well yeah. Monkey Island drew almost a quarter of the European vote. In fact, Monkey Island would score 71.5% on SimCity directly. There is no such disparity here.

I am not saying the European vote during the dead hours do not matter. I am saying they do not matter here.


Then can you explain why SMW cut 240 during the Europe hours last round, yet SMB3 won by about 1000 if you count only the other 20 hours?
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/1/2009 11:37:50 PM | message detail
Monkey Island also outright beat SMB3 in some European countries.


I bet Vietnam was one of them.


Lol, hochi. That was priceless.
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syco_coaster | Posted 6/1/2009 11:39:16 PM | message detail
Next time I see Vietnam in Europe I'll let ya know.
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/1/2009 11:45:27 PM | message detail
The trends were pretty weird in the SMB3/SMW match last round.

SMB3 won 0-3, 7-12, and 22-24. SMW won 3-7 and and 15-17. 12-15 and 17-22 were prolonged stalls.
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Lopen | Posted 6/1/2009 11:47:06 PM | message detail
SMB3 won 0-3? Hmmm. Interesting. I wonder if that means SMW is going to start laying on the beats soon.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 11:47:41 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #215
SMB3 won 0-3? Hmmm. Interesting. I wonder if that means SMW is going to start laying on the beats soon.


From 3-7, SMW cut from 380 down to 147 down
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 6/1/2009 11:50:16 PM | message detail
With this result I really hope SM64 advances tomorrow.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/1/2009 11:52:58 PM | message detail
Super Mario 64 win over LttP? Har har
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 11:57:19 PM | message detail
2 straight cuts for zelda over Mario 3.. its starting to die, just on schedule
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/2/2009 12:27:46 AM | message detail
Last round World cut over 70 votes from Mario 3's lead by now. Here it's just stalling. WTF WORLD WTF
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/2/2009 12:35:23 AM | message detail
Also, apparently 35% of LL has never played a single Metal Gear game.

That's got to be like significantly worse than just the GameFAQs casual visitor rate, what's going on there with the lack of love
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Guess how many teens | Posted 6/2/2009 12:42:06 AM | message detail
O-o so is this match proof that SFF only has an advantage for other parties in company vs company match and not when franchise vs franchise o-O?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 12:42:30 AM | message detail

From: Guess how many teens | #222
O-o so is this match proof that SFF only has an advantage for other parties in company vs company match and not when franchise vs franchise o-O?


dude, look at super mario bros 1
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/2/2009 1:41:25 AM | message detail
Votal Stats!

Super Smash Bros. Brawl kept about 98.68% of its votes from last round and about 78.1% of its votes from the round before. Yep, seems that taking out Mario Galaxy did a huge favor to it, though not nearly as much as Twilight Princess.

Call of Duty 4 kept about 71.6% of its votes from last round and about 49.17% of its votes from the round before. Either it's casual bait, or Fallout 3 hurt it a bit. Next.

Metal Gear Solid 4 kept about 79.19% of its votes from last round and about 70.34% of its votes from the round before. 'Been doing well so far.

Fallout 3 kept about 84.06% of its votes from last round and about 63.74% of its votes from the round before. Nothing much to say.

1. Final Fantasy VII (Round 3)
2. Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Round 3)
3. Zelda: A Link to the Past (Round 3)
4. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Round 3)
5. Super Mario Bros. (Round 3)
6. Super Smash Bros. Melee (Round 3)
7. Zelda: Twilight Princess (Round 3)
8. The Legend of Zelda (Round 3)
9. Final Fantasy VI (Round 3)
10. Super Mario Bros. 3 (Round 3)
11. Super Mario World (Round 3)
12. Final Fantasy X (Round 3)
13. Metal Gear Solid 4 (Round 3)
14. Resident Evil 4 (Round 3)
15. Metal Gear Solid 3 (Round 3)
16. Super Mario 64 (Round 3)
17. Pokemon Red/Blue (Round 3)
18. Chrono Trigger (Round 3)
19. Kingdom Hearts (Round 3)
20. Metal Gear Solid (Round 3)
21. Oblivion (Round 3)
22. Fallout 3 (Round 3)
23. Final Fantasy IV (Round 3)
24. Final Fantasy VIII (Round 3)
25. Diablo II (Round 3)
26. Call of Duty 4 (Round 3)
27. Super Metroid (Round 3)
28. GoldenEye (Round 3)
29. Tetris (Round 3)
30. Sonic the Hedgehog (Round 3)
31. Mega Man 2 (Round 3)
32. Zelda: Link’s Awakening (Round 3)

Brawl > Every Mario Game?
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/2/2009 1:49:59 AM | message detail
And lol Mario 1. A game that got 70% in its first match gets 10% in its last. What the hell...
Calintares | Posted 6/2/2009 2:13:58 AM | message detail
last round:

In Europe SMB3 got 25,70% Sonic got 23,09%, SMW got 30,11% and FFIV got 21,09%.

In North America SMB3 got 34,67 Sonic got 12,58%, SMW got 32,74% and FFIV got 20,02%.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 6/2/2009 2:43:47 AM | message detail
And lol Mario 1. A game that got 70% in its first match gets 10% in its last. What the hell...

What the hell indeed. It eats several other games alive to start off, and now, it's getting destroyed. I wonder if it'll ever fall into single digits...
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Guess how many teens | Posted 6/2/2009 3:10:14 AM | message detail
dude, look at super mario bros 1
Mario trippling Zelda.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/2/2009 3:15:24 AM | message detail
Right now, SMB3 is stalling SMW where as SMW was still cutting SMB3 at this time of the day last round.

I wonder if it'll ever fall into single digits...

Probably not. SMB seems to be doing pretty good with the night vote for some reason. It'll probably be breaking 11% soon, in which I don't expect it to drop more than 1% after that to finish below 10%.
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greatone10 | Posted 6/2/2009 3:18:58 AM | message detail
Even though this is all SFF, just imagine how weak this makes Duck Hunt and Ninja Gaiden look.
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Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/2/2009 3:25:06 AM | message detail
Nice Europe vote, SMB3.

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/2/2009 3:31:57 AM | message detail
So much for that 1 hour stall-out between SMB3 and SMW, which has now turned into SMW getting some big gains now.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 4:35:31 AM | message detail
Zelda 1 is winning (outright) the morning vote against SMB3! Since 6 AM, it's cut off 53 votes from its lead. It's still lost 79 votes to SMW, but that's much much better than before. Zelda 1 looks good to win the ASV outright, and a comeback against Mario 3 looks very possible, but SMW is probably out of reach unless it gets going fast.

Zelda 1 by the hour against Mario 3:

1:00 | 44.90%
2:00 | 47.23%
3:00 | 46.57%
4:00 | 46.58%
5:00 | 48.49%
6:00 | 44.97%
7:00 | 51.03%

Zelda 1 by the hour against Mario World:

1:00 | 45.09%
2:00 | 45.89%
3:00 | 46.14%
4:00 | 46.24%
5:00 | 45.51%
6:00 | 43.66%
7:00 | 48.18%

Mario 3 by the hour against Mario World:

1:00 | 50.19%
2:00 | 48.65%
3:00 | 49.57%
4:00 | 49.65%
5:00 | 47.01%
6:00 | 48.67%
7:00 | 47.15%

Zelda has a shot at beating SMW this hour, or if not, next hour looks very possible.
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Calintares | Posted 6/2/2009 5:00:19 AM | message detail
Do you think Lightning might get into the character contest this year?
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El Duderino 84 | Posted 6/2/2009 5:02:41 AM | message detail
SMW has it in the bag I think. Still too close to be certain, but I think its going to keep the spread.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/2/2009 5:17:09 AM | message detail
And Zelda breaks 27%.

It got 49.69% against SMW last hour (and over 51% on SMB3 again) so it may be able to take first this hour for the first time. It probably gets 52-54% on the Mario games during the ASV. Mario 3's lead on it will probably be well below 1000 by the time 3 PM hits if Zelda 1 follows all the other Zelda games in improving through the DSV, and this comeback is definitely doable. Mario World's current lead of around 1800, however, is very tough, especially as Zelda hasn't actually started cutting yet, just stalling. This should be a fun ASV.
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Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 6/2/2009 5:23:24 AM | message detail
Series didn't become great until Twilight Princess.

I know it's your opinion but seriously this doesn't make you look smart or cool. Just stupid.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/2/2009 6:14:30 AM | message detail
Look for epic Mario boost after the new Mario is announced!

If Mario gets a new game and Zelda doesn't, does SM64 look better against LttP tomorrow?
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 6:19:05 AM | message detail
More like a double comeback with LoZ > SMB3 at the end

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
HaRRicH | Posted 6/2/2009 6:29:58 AM | message detail
I think SMW will keep first place; SMB3 was leading by 319 votes at this time last round and finished with a lead of 704...now SMW's up by 575 votes. Unless trends change significantly (for a close SFF-riddled rematch, anyway), SMW should take this without much conflict.

Now if only LoZ would come back on SMB3...! I don't think it'll happen though.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/2/2009 6:35:44 AM | message detail
Good job Mario World. And Good job Zelda, didn't think it would be doing this well.
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 6:48:55 AM | message detail
If SMW > SMB3 holds I'll probably end up moving up in the rankings.

Then again I have FFVII > SMB3 next round so my bracket is screwed.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
transience | Posted 6/2/2009 6:59:29 AM | message detail
Zelda's stalling out Mario's best time. it'll definitely win the after-school vote, though Mario 3 is most likely out of reach.

gonna need a Zelda Wii announce
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 7:16:20 AM | message detail
SMW has this. Seems the NES game theory was correct
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/2/2009 7:36:22 AM | message detail
Oh well, that just means SMB3 and SMW will be 1-1. Next round will answer once and for all which of the two is truly the strongest Mario game!
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/2/2009 7:37:05 AM | message detail
Mario 3 beats Mario World next round because LttP is in the poll LOL!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
HaRRicH | Posted 6/2/2009 7:58:59 AM | message detail
Not so bold prediction: whoever advances tomorrow makes it to the championship. I'm rooting hard for SM64, but LoZ:LttP should be the favorite. Was there anybody arguing LoZ:LttP helps LoZ:OoT more than SM64?
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BT > Harrich
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The Mana Sword | Posted 6/2/2009 8:00:00 AM | message detail
Yeah, that should be a given, I think. And I don't really see any reason for LttP to not come out on top of Mario 64 tomorrow.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/2/2009 8:01:51 AM | message detail
If SM64 advances, its a tossup who advances next round. I'm rooting for SM64 though, to truly see who is the strongest Mario
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/2/2009 8:06:49 AM | message detail
Personally I want SM64 to advance, maybe the Mario announcement is something big...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384