GameFAQs Contests

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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 737

UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/1/2009 8:47:33 PM | message detail
Getting to be a fat aeroplane.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/1/2009 8:48:10 PM | message detail
Use the P-Wing to get through!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 6/1/2009 8:58:09 PM | message detail
tag
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 6/1/2009 9:31:58 PM | message detail
IT'S FREAKING MARIO
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 9:33:38 PM | message detail
i predict SMB ends this match in single digits
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/1/2009 9:33:52 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 6/2/2009 12:33:38 AM | #005
i predict SMB ends this match in single digits


I predict you're right!
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/1/2009 9:33:53 PM | message detail
Bold prediction there!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
charmander6000 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:33:59 PM | message detail
So anyone up for a SM64 rally tomorrow since my bracket is dead?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 6/1/2009 9:34:00 PM | message detail
Epic 1 vote lead!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/1/2009 9:34:13 PM | message detail
SMB3's lead at this time last match: 126
SMB3's lead now: 1

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/1/2009 9:34:20 PM | message detail
I'm up for a FFVII > FFVI rally tomorrow. Let's show these Nintendo games what's up!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 9:34:35 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #007
Bold prediction there!


ya i kno rite
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:34:59 PM | message detail
Don't lose faith yet- the ASV will save us. Go Zelda!
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/1/2009 9:35:04 PM | message detail
Play Mario 3.

Hell, play Mario World too.
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paulg235 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:35:34 PM | message detail
What happen, SMB3?
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/1/2009 9:35:34 PM | message detail
SMB3's lead at this time last match: 126
SMB3's lead now: 1


So at this rate Mario 3 wins by 575 instead of 700.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 9:35:38 PM | message detail
n_n
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:35:43 PM | message detail
SMW is looking good here.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/1/2009 9:35:51 PM | message detail
Zelda is easily the worst game in this poll by a fair margin.

Cape>Kuriboh's Shoe

Heck, lots of stuff>Kuriboh's Shoe

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PegasusLover123 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:36:11 PM | message detail
And SMW just shook up SMB3 with his earthquake inducing cape nosedive!
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 9:36:31 PM | message detail
Original Zelda wasn't really that great of a game. Series didn't become great till Lttp imo
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/1/2009 9:36:38 PM | message detail
Yeah, Mario games get too much respect for FFVII to score 50%+, I think. Remember SMB led FF for an hour in the Series Contest.

I bet OoT could lead FFVII for a short period of time in the finals. Since Zelda is at its strongest in the United States, the United States would probably have to launch OoT out to at least a 5000 vote lead or more over FFVII if OoT wants a shot of winning the contest. From there, the rest of the world should favor FFVII over OoT, it's just a matter of how much the rest of the world could bring FFVII back on OoT.
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hochiminhX | Posted 6/1/2009 9:36:47 PM | message detail
Ideally, OoT wants SM64 to make the finals. Something like


FFVII
SM64
OoT
FFX

We already know OoT can wreck SM64 with SFF. It wouldn't be able to as much with SMW or SMB3. Of course, if LTTP makes the finals OoT has exactly a 0% of getting 1st place.


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I will bury you.
LeonhartFour | Posted 6/1/2009 9:36:53 PM | message detail
Series didn't become great until Twilight Princess.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/1/2009 9:38:19 PM | message detail
TP>OoT>MM>>>LTTP>WW>every other Zelda game>many games>LoZ>Adventure of Link

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HaRRicH | Posted 6/1/2009 9:38:43 PM | message detail
This proves Mario 3 is the strongest Mario game, easily. It's taking Mario World's best effort and leeching from two other NES games to get Mario 3 to lose, and it's still fighting for first place.

SMB3 barely beat SMW last round with another SNES-game in the poll and another game from SMW's era. One could use a similar argument to say SMW should have beaten SMB3 there. Honestly, for all intents and purposes, SMB3/SMW are equals. I would give the super-slight edge to SMW head-to-head in a one-on-one battle, but anybody pushing for one game to definitely be stronger than the other by any margin is just pushing an agenda as far as I'm concerned.


By the way, good call from the people thinking Zelda 1 had a chance today. That wasn't a terrible argument at all.

Please don't tell me you're going to make a habit out of being holier than thou on each controversial match you called right, Ulti. That's what separates us from the you-know-who's in these topics, afterall...and you don't want to be like them, right? =)
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BT > Harrich
lol me
charmander6000 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:39:28 PM | message detail
Ideally, OoT wants SM64 to make the finals. Something like

More like SMB3/SMW because of console LFF.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
El Duderino 84 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:39:52 PM | message detail
Original Zelda wasn't really that great of a game. Series didn't become great till Lttp imo

Just wondering, did you play the original zelda games when they first came out? Because at the time, those games were amazing. Still easily among the best NES games for sure. They were great then but obviously the series continued to become better as successful franchises ought to.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/1/2009 9:40:07 PM | message detail
Ideally OoT would want SMB3/SMW in the finals, because it has far less in common with the SNES games and there won't be as much overlap.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 9:40:31 PM | message detail

From: El Duderino 84 | #028
Original Zelda wasn't really that great of a game. Series didn't become great till Lttp imo

Just wondering, did you play the original zelda games when they first came out? Because at the time, those games were amazing. Still easily among the best NES games for sure. They were great then but obviously the series continued to become better as successful franchises ought to.


No I didn't, to be fair. Didn't play it till after Lttp.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 6/1/2009 9:40:48 PM | message detail
'Among the best NES games' is like saying 'among the best oudated shovelware'.

NES had like 5 worthwhile games, by very loose standards.

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charmander6000 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:40:52 PM | message detail
Zelda is going to hate the night and then rock the morning as usual.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 9:40:58 PM | message detail
seems the smb3 cheaters got bored
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/1/2009 9:41:23 PM | message detail
I just realized that 32/64 bit era may be my least-favorite generation of gaming. I wasn't a huge fan of the FF or Zelda entries, Mario 64 was amazing yet still no SMB3/SMW, and overall I personally don't think that the best game of any series is in this generation besides Star Fox.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/1/2009 9:41:33 PM | message detail
I played Zelda 1 on the NES, and I have to agree that it is a garbage game compared to LttP.
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1
KamikazePotato | Posted 6/1/2009 9:41:36 PM | message detail
I'm not sure OoT wants SM64 instead of LTTP. SM64 shares the same console as OoT, and probably resists SFF better than another Zelda game would.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/1/2009 9:42:10 PM | message detail
We've already seen OoT triple Mario 64. It wouldn't triple LTTP.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Darklurkr | Posted 6/1/2009 9:42:23 PM | message detail
Final 16

4 Mario Games, 4 Zelda Games, 3 Final Fantasies, 2 Basic Copies of another w/ added characters, and 3 others. I'm not complain'n (i can't say female dog version censor rate is unbelievable) here, I'm just saying that either says something about the Gamefaqs boards, or that the companies that make those games are fantastic at what they do. I can't decide :D
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/1/2009 9:42:36 PM | message detail
Kuribo's Shoe is overrated.

Great concept, but the one level you use it in was easy anyway.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:42:47 PM | message detail
Zelda will probably do better the next 2 hours and then do badly in Europe and the late night. Fortunately the late night only lasts until 6 AM today, instead of 'till 8 like the past 2 matches, which had weekend/holiday trends.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 9:42:51 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #036
I'm not sure OoT wants SM64 instead of LTTP. SM64 shares the same console as OoT, and probably resists SFF better than another Zelda game would.


um... http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Ocarina_of_Time_vs_Super_Mario_64
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charmander6000 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:42:58 PM | message detail
I'm not sure OoT wants SM64 instead of LTTP. SM64 shares the same console as OoT, and probably resists SFF better than another Zelda game would.

2004 shows that SM64 will be SFF into the ground while LttP seems to be able to hold its ground in favourite Zelda polls.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384
hochiminhX | Posted 6/1/2009 9:43:40 PM | message detail
I'm not sure OoT wants SM64 instead of LTTP. SM64 shares the same console as OoT, and probably resists SFF better than another Zelda game would.


Were you here in 2004 when OoT nearly quardupled SM64? If LTTP makes it to the finals FFVII is a 100% absolute lock.

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I will bury you.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/1/2009 9:43:57 PM | message detail
Ideally OoT would want SMB3/SMW in the finals, because it has far less in common with the SNES games and there won't be as much overlap.

I'd say this could possibly happen. Depending on how badly Zelda loses to SMB3/SMW, I may consider taking both games over LTTP next round. Or SM64 would have to somehow defeat LTTP tomorrow.
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El Duderino 84 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:44:36 PM | message detail
NES had like 5 worthwhile games, by very loose standards.

If it were possible to slap people though a series of tubes, you'd have a very red face.

You obviously didn't have an NES growing up.. or parents that wouldn't buy you games.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 6/1/2009 9:44:46 PM | message detail
NES has a solid library. SMB3 is one of my favorite games, the other Marios are good, Zelda 1 is still fun, Zelda 2 is underrated (screw you all), the Mega Mans are fun excluding 1, FF3 was amazing, Kirby's Adventure is solid, Contra was epic, Capcom's Disney games like Duck Tales were awesome, need I go on?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 6/1/2009 9:45:11 PM | message detail
So how much of a lead does SMW need overnight? I'm thinking about 500
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MetricTrout | Posted 6/1/2009 9:45:13 PM | message detail
We've already seen OoT triple Mario 64. It wouldn't triple LTTP.

Mario 64 and Mario's games in general were much weaker in 2004 than right now.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 6/1/2009 9:45:30 PM | message detail
World stuffers' turn to get bored!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
charmander6000 | Posted 6/1/2009 9:45:46 PM | message detail
SMB3 will not take second for an answer!
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB3 Points: 275/384