GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 736
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/31/2009 8:41:27 PM | message detail |
450+ posts with no stats topic? Jeez. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days. Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples) For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ "You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid |
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/31/2009 8:42:27 PM | message detail |
Time for Brawl to fail --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 8:42:35 PM | message detail |
I thought it was already created. --- The Gamer In Me http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 8:43:25 PM | message detail |
--- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/31/2009 8:49:36 PM | message detail |
From: paulg235 | Posted: 5/31/2009 11:42:35 PM | #003 I swear I didn't see one, but I'll close this if I missed it or something. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ "You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid |
Naomi_Diamond | Posted 5/31/2009 9:01:43 PM | message detail |
--- ziggie ziggie wop wop |
transience | Posted 5/31/2009 9:02:15 PM | message detail |
christ, what happened to Fallout? Brawl looks good. MGS4 looks decent. --- xyzzy |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 9:02:16 PM | message detail |
Lawl GOTY polls --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/31/2009 9:02:20 PM | message detail |
Metlol Gear Sololid 4 --- Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!! |
xp1337 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:02:29 PM | message detail |
X-Stats will be worth looking at just to see Galaxy now. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile |
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/31/2009 9:02:29 PM | message detail |
Fallout more like lolout --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:02:45 PM | message detail |
Anyway, Brawl's a beast. --- The Gamer In Me http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158 |
ZFS | Posted 5/31/2009 9:03:07 PM | message detail |
Yeah, not too surprising here. Brawl has looked like the better of the two all contest -- and it stands out like crazy here. --- http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif |
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 5/31/2009 9:03:14 PM | message detail |
Fallout 3 being so weak saddens me. But at least Brawl's Hulk-like strength makes me at least a little reassured over having it win the entire contest. --- Wylvane's current main account. |
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:03:20 PM | message detail |
Brlawl...oh wait Aw yeah Smash/MGS board vote. Let's keep this up! --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/31/2009 9:03:26 PM | message detail |
Well then --- http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3230/takerface.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:03:28 PM | message detail |
lol GOTY polls Uh, this will end very different from where it is now in all likelihood. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 9:03:29 PM | message detail |
Yeah, I think Brawl advances next round, no matter what. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:03:34 PM | message detail |
Damn it Brawl, how am I suppose to win if you're doing so well? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > MGS4 Points: 259/368 |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 9:03:37 PM | message detail |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3500®ion=US MGS3 in last place in US --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
Yesmar | Posted 5/31/2009 9:03:44 PM | message detail |
I swear I didn't see one, but I'll close this if I missed it or something. Come on Ulti, did you actually miss a joke bashing Brawl? --- FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest! |
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:03:55 PM | message detail |
Geez its smashing the competition even more now that Galaxy isn't there to interfere with it. Looks like MGS4 got the free pass to the next round now. --- "If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus |
transience | Posted 5/31/2009 9:04:40 PM | message detail |
Brawl to the semis confirmed. now the question will be if it can piggyback to the finals. --- xyzzy |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/31/2009 9:04:54 PM | message detail |
From: Yesmar | Posted: 6/1/2009 12:03:44 AM | #021 ...I don't get it. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ "You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid |
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/31/2009 9:05:08 PM | message detail |
The real match here is Call of Duty 4 vs. Fallout 3. --- http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3230/takerface.gif |
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:05:15 PM | message detail |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3500®ion=US DARN YOU GREEDY AMERICANS! --- The Gamer In Me http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158 |
ZFS | Posted 5/31/2009 9:05:22 PM | message detail |
now the question will be if it can piggyback to the finals. FFX got this ! --- http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/31/2009 9:05:26 PM | message detail |
I hope we can put the whole 'MGS always wins close matches' / 'MGS cheats to win' thing to rest now. MGS4 time, let's see if it can lead Brawl for the first few minutes like in the GOTY As lonely and pathetic as the usual MGS defense force is, they're smart enough to realize that MGS3 losing yesterday means 4 will actually have a chance to advance next round. Also, lol at anyone who still thinks Melee > Brawl --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1 |
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 5/31/2009 9:05:39 PM | message detail |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3500®ion=US Horrible taste indeed! --- Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:05:45 PM | message detail |
Brawl to the semis not confirmed yet. RE4's chances of beating MGS4 look a lot better than a few minutes ago. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
Yesmar | Posted 5/31/2009 9:06:03 PM | message detail |
...I don't get it., Look at the post above paulg's. --- FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest! |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:06:17 PM | message detail |
CoD4 > FO3 possible All right. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > MGS4 Points: 259/368 |
transience | Posted 5/31/2009 9:06:39 PM | message detail |
RE4's dead as far as I'm concerned. --- xyzzy |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/31/2009 9:06:43 PM | message detail |
MGS4
is still overperforming here. People are abandoning Fallout and CoD in
droves in a futile attempt to make this competitive. Brawl could
probably 60/40 this game 1v1. --- Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!! |
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/31/2009 9:06:49 PM | message detail |
Yeah, at this point I don't think Brawl LFFs with TP so much as it SFFs TP. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
KrahenProphet | Posted 5/31/2009 9:06:58 PM | message detail |
Regretting giving up my initial faith in Brawl and not putting Brawl > MGS4 next round. |
TheRye | Posted 5/31/2009 9:07:20 PM | message detail |
Liking Brawl's strength to SFF with OoT in the semis and get MGS4 a 1st place finish --- The Rye - The one and only... http://backloggery.com/the_rye/sig.gif |
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 5/31/2009 9:07:29 PM | message detail |
The
one contest I had absolutely no faith in my bracket, I'm in the top 10
and my major upset pick is actually looking quasi-feasible. --- Wylvane's current main account. |
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/31/2009 9:07:35 PM | message detail |
No matter what happens between MGS4 and RE4, Brawl is advancing. --- Demyx is better than Axel. |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/31/2009 9:08:00 PM | message detail |
I have RE4 > TP. I have more faith in RE4 than I do in TP now, but that'll still probably be my first double red. --- Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!! |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:08:26 PM | message detail |
These modern games are all just weak, people- wait until it hits some real competition! --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 9:08:48 PM | message detail |
I'd
be surprised if Brawl SFFs TP hard. Heck, at this point, I like TP >
MGS4, if it stays as it is now (Probably won't, but hey). --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/31/2009 9:08:49 PM | message detail |
11.37% / 14.44% 17.68% / 10.73% Casuals were hit hard. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > MGS4 Points: 259/368 |
The Real Truth | Posted 5/31/2009 9:08:53 PM | message detail |
Wow I just realized FFX could take first next round. --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
transience | Posted 5/31/2009 9:08:55 PM | message detail |
yeah, I don't have much faith in TP either. Brawl/MGS4/OOT/??? - this could go anywhere. --- xyzzy |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 9:09:06 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #042 what the hell --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/31/2009 9:09:09 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #041 That's what I'm hoping - that these 2007-2009 games are just clashing pieces of junk. --- Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 9:09:26 PM | message detail |
Not next round. In terms of strength. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/31/2009 9:10:27 PM | message detail |
I have no idea how you think Brawl is weaker than a game that was led by RE4 for half the day in round 2. --- Demyx is better than Axel. |
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/31/2009 9:10:28 PM | message detail |
My bracket score is a full 100 points lower than my prediction score (215 for bracket, 315 for predictions). And wow I voted for MGS4 for some reason. |