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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 735

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 6:04:41 PM | message detail
HM knows whats up

Like I doubt we'll see him much the final hour if you catch my drift ... !
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transience | Posted 5/31/2009 6:04:42 PM | message detail
plus, this is RE4 - a game also known for a pretty damn solid fanbase. a game with a badass early vote, which is really the same as what the last update is. RE4's not going to be outdone here.

I think this match is still a tossup, but the whole idea of MGS3 having some silly clutch ability is nonsense.
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xyzzy
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/31/2009 6:05:03 PM | message detail
I'll reserve my full judgment until I see MGS4 tomorrow, but anybody else feeling that whether or not MSG3 advances today (I don't think it will) that Brawl>TP is looking most likely next round?
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ZFS | Posted 5/31/2009 6:05:36 PM | message detail
That night vote is a lot less important when the deficit is 200 votes and people are pushing for one game heavily over the other. It's not guaranteed to happen, but between RE4 and MGS3, one of these is more likely to get that push over the other.

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paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:06:00 PM | message detail
TP>Brawl works for me but Brawl>TP is cool too.

4 Vote Cut.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 6:16:10 PM | message detail
http://www.darkknightandjoekerr.com/AndHereWeGo.gif
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paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:17:22 PM | message detail
Smart thinking, Albion. Posting the Joker Gif now guarrentees MGS3 to win the next update.
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The Gamer In Me
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/31/2009 6:18:01 PM | message detail
RE4 coming back. If, no scratch that, WHEN it breaks the 200 vote barrier next update, I'M CALLING IT!
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 6:20:44 PM | message detail
match is over
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/31/2009 6:21:01 PM | message detail
Ow

I think it may be over!
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transience | Posted 5/31/2009 6:21:34 PM | message detail
this match can't be over, MGS3 has clutch vote ability!
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xyzzy
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/31/2009 6:21:48 PM | message detail
SNAKE? SNAAAAAAAAAAKE!!!!

dun dun dun dun-dun DUN DUN DUN
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paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:22:33 PM | message detail
MGS3 rallying needs to start now otherwise this match has lost its best match of the contest award.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/31/2009 6:25:42 PM | message detail
RE4 aiming the for the 300 here
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:26:44 PM | message detail
I'll reserve my full judgment until I see MGS4 tomorrow, but anybody else feeling that whether or not MSG3 advances today (I don't think it will) that Brawl>TP is looking most likely next round?

I see any of the four games advancing in any order.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
creativename | Posted 5/31/2009 6:28:47 PM | message detail
Close match.

I hope RE4 wins, because is MGS3 advances then the next round is pretty lame, with Brawl>TP so likely, maybe outside chance of TP>Brawl. If RE4 advances then at least MGS4 can potentially make some noise.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 6:30:05 PM | message detail
I don't like MGS3's chances at this point, but it's done far better than I ever expected, so I can't be too disappointed.

It's not over yet though.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:32:03 PM | message detail
RE4 looks pretty safe here. Hopefully it can get that lead up over 300 by the time 11 PM comes around to really put this away, although I don't think we're going to see a rally materialize anyway. Not everything from CT gets rallied- Frog always does, but Crono is 1-4 in close matches, and CT is 1-1. Magus is, well, Magus. Just because Snake and MGS got last hour support doesn't mean MGS3 will today, especially as MGS4 fans are unlikely to rally for it.

SM64 is the underdog against LTTP obviously, but CT is not comparable to FFVI, thanks to CTDS. Notice how it put up 72% on SOTN while FFVI has been putting up poor numbers all contest. In any case, I don't think LTTP is that much stronger than it- there's no reason for the gap between LTTP and Mario 3 to have increased since 2004, and if Mario World can almost equal Mario 3, Mario 64 can be in that area too.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:33:40 PM | message detail
Sounds like propaganda to make CT look better than it actually is to me.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:35:58 PM | message detail
I thought it would coming from me!

But Wednesday will show us what's really going on here- whether CT has dropped off a lot despite CTDS, or whether SM64 is that strong. None of us really knows until then.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 6:36:54 PM | message detail
That 72% on SOTN is worthless. Obvious underperformance on SOTN's part, and that's not the same game that got 40% on GE in 2004 anyway.

And if RE/MGS LFF is real, then TP and Brawl both advancing next round still isn't outside the realm of impossibility anyway.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:37:18 PM | message detail
I am absolutely convinced CT and SSBM overperformed a lot against FFVII now, though. I've thought this for years, and the evidence is beginning to show up now.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:41:06 PM | message detail
That 72% on SOTN is worthless. Obvious underperformance on SOTN's part, and that's not the same game that got 40% on GE in 2004 anyway.

Mario 64 still got 66% on SOTN in round 1 with KSS in the poll. And looking at SMW/FF1/FF4, I wouldn't be so quick to call round 2 the anomaly.

And, would you take FFVI over GE? SMRPG?
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paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:41:11 PM | message detail
MGS3 cut, but...

Is it really worth notifying this? Because frankly, my hope for a comeback is almost completely dead.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 6:42:53 PM | message detail
I still take FFVI over GE and Mario RPG.

Regardless, looking at how badly SOTN got pounded doesn't tell me anything. You only have to look at what's become of Alucard the last few years to know SOTN's pretty weak these days.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/31/2009 6:48:06 PM | message detail
Hmm, looks like MGS's horrid SNV is finally going to catch up to it in a match. It'll rebound past 10, but I can't see that being enough to come back unless there's a really concerted push by the MGS3 fanbase (and honestly, I think most of them are shocked that this match was competitive to begin with).

And unless MGS4 straight up BOMBS tomorrow, I don't understand how people are even entertaining that it doesn't advance next round if RE4 advances. Seems far-fetched.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/31/2009 6:58:30 PM | message detail
I didn't think anyone was not entertaining the idea of MGS4 advancing next round. Should be a gimme.


http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/8652/r4pokemonrby3.png

I really feel like I should make some sort of theme between them all, but I'm drawing a blank. No sprites kills a lot of pic options.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 6:59:42 PM | message detail
It wasn't a gimme till we saw how RE4 hasn't lived up to expecations this contest. Now its a gimme, though
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paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 7:00:48 PM | message detail
Don't count your chickens before they hatch.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 7:02:14 PM | message detail
I get the feeling Brawl is going to kill MGS4 pretty good in a few hours. Not that that should be alarming- even with a big win tomorrow, it is likely that neither Nintendo game advances next round.

Here's my attempt at ranking the top 20:

Tier 1

1. Final Fantasy VII
2. Ocarina of Time

Big Gap

Tier 2

3. A Link to the Past
4. Super Mario 64
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
6. Super Mario World
7. Chrono Trigger
8. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
9. Super Smash Bros. Melee

Small Gap

The Rest (meaning that the gaps after this are really small)

10. Final Fantasy X
11. Metal Gear Solid
12. Super Smash Bros. Brawl
13. Goldeneye 007
14. Super Mario Bros.
15. The Legend of Zelda
16. Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal
17. Final Fantasy VI
18. Final Fantasy VIII
19. Super Mario RPG
20. Metal Gear Solid 4
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 7:05:32 PM | message detail
Not that that should be alarming- even with a big win tomorrow, it is likely that neither Nintendo game advances next round.

If MGS4 and RE4 split like what's happening today, I definitely wouldn't rule it out, especially if Brawl whips MGS4.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 7:06:19 PM | message detail
Also, not having Twilight Princess on there is wrong. It's a top 20 game.

And get that Mario RPG > MGS4 mess out of here! I see what you're trying to do there!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 7:06:42 PM | message detail
Match over. I'm calling it for RE4. MGS3 is officially dead and the best it can do is take 100 votes off that lead.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 7:08:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, I realized I forgot about TP after posting the list. I'd probably put it in #19, where SMRPG is now. And yes, SMRPG > MGS4!
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/31/2009 7:10:44 PM | message detail
The only thing that could win in this situation is Frog
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/31/2009 7:11:05 PM | message detail
I think a comfortable win for Brawl tomorrow and then epic Nintendo split to give MGS4 the win next round over either TP or Brawl depending on who comes out alive.
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paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 7:11:31 PM | message detail
would be awesome if Frog suddenly appeared in MGS3's match pictures.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/31/2009 7:12:51 PM | message detail
The only thing that could win in this situation is Frog

Crono too if he randomly started getting updates like he did last year.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/31/2009 7:14:37 PM | message detail
Match LVI: Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. Call of Duty 4 vs. Metal Gear Solid 4 vs. Fallout 3

Last Round:

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 41.06%
Call of Duty 4 – 25.42%
Grand Theft Auto IV – 17.97%
Super Mario Galaxy – 15.56%

Metal Gear Solid 4 – 35.50%
Fallout 3 – 25.48%
Portal – 20.73%
Halo 3 – 18.29%

Analysis

Final match of the division and we have the recreation of the 2009 GotY with special guest Call of Duty 4. We’ve already seen the results of this not too long ago and I don’t really see why those would change especially watching the games perform in this contest. I’ve always wanted to know how the newer games held up to the older ones; I guess we’ll find out next round.

Despite another Nintendo game Super Smash Bros. Brawl performed rather well last round. I never gave Call of Duty 4 much credit before and I’m not about to. Brawl while looked well last round is still in danger of losing in this match. The game has the advantage of being the odd ball of the group and I would think Call of Duty 4 would affect the other games more than Brawl.

Metal Gear Solid 4 also did well last round taking down an expected weaker Fallout 3. Since the GotY it is possible that Metal Gear Solid 4 has gotten stronger unlike Fallout 3, but the same could be said about Brawl and not only does it have an uphill battle it also has to contend with Call of Duty 4. It could win, but it will be a rather large underdog going into the match.

I’m actually more interested in the third place match. Like many big splash games the wave is slowing down as seen last round by Fallout 3. Fallout 3 was popular back in the GotY because it was released back in November yet in just a few months the game has already taken a nasty fall and it will only get worse. If we ever have another game contest in five years Fallout 3 will most likely be fodder.

While it was crushed Call of Duty 4 could take advantage of a weaker Fallout 3 and avoid last in this match. Had this match occur in about a year from now I’d probably take Call of Duty 4 without much thinking, but now I think Fallout 3 has just enough strength to avoid being embarrassed. Call of Duty 4 can still win though that would require Brawl to stomp Metal Gear Solid 4 as well.

The third round is over and we’re about to enter our final week of the contest. With most likely eleven Nintendo games out of sixteen left we are bound to see some major dropping of those games. I wonder how well Nintendo would have done back in 2005 or 2006; even new Nintendo on the most part did well.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Brawl > Metal Gear Solid 4

charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 31.63%, Metal Gear Solid 4 – 27.42%, Fallout 3 – 20.53%, Call of Duty 4 – 20.43%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 7:19:20 PM | message detail
And yeah, this one's over. Good game, MGS3. You did well.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 7:19:53 PM | message detail
Time | MGS3
1:00 | 50.06%
2:00 | 51.25%
3:00 | 50.87%
4:00 | 49.50%
5:00 | 52.58%
6:00 | 53.67%
7:00 | 55.09%
8:00 | 52.33%
9:00 | 50.24%
10:00 | 50.00%
11:00 | 48.74%
12:00 | 48.93%
13:00 | 49.26%
14:00 | 47.74%
15:00 | 48.34%
16:00 | 50.50%
17:00 | 48.31%
18:00 | 48.45%
19:00 | 46.41%
20:00 | 49.61%
21:00 | 46.74%
22:00 | 46.53%

RE4 is taking the SNV convincingly.
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ZFS | Posted 5/31/2009 7:22:25 PM | message detail
Yeah, looks like RE4's got this one. Good show from MGS3.

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paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 7:23:11 PM | message detail
If only the Metal Gear announcement came a few days sooner.

(I'm still pulling for a glitch to happen in the poll which makes Bacon come on announcing that the poll will be restarted tomorrow. That way, MGS3 will surely win.)
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/31/2009 7:24:30 PM | message detail
Brawl > CoD4 tonight gonna convince everyone how strong Brawl really is
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/31/2009 7:27:35 PM | message detail
Night voters know what's up. MGS3 did well enough, but now the superior MGS game gets to shine next round!
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Match 55 - Bracket: TP > RE4 - Vote: RE4 (247/352)
transience | Posted 5/31/2009 7:27:52 PM | message detail
oh man almost time for MGS3 to cheat
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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 5/31/2009 7:27:54 PM | message detail
Second straight match where Metal Gear's horrific day vote will cost it the match. It's becoming the new Chrono Trigger of bottom feeder day votes.
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ZFS | Posted 5/31/2009 7:28:39 PM | message detail
now the superior MGS game gets to shine next round!

Bzzt !

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creativename | Posted 5/31/2009 7:30:19 PM | message detail
Even without MGS3, there's still a real good chance Brawl>TP happens next round. Unless red sox's theory of new Nintendo LFFing more than old Nintendo (kind of the opposite of Old Square/New Square) is true.

I think Brawl, TP, and MGS4 aren't all that far apart in neutral strength, though Brawl probably has a step on the other two.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/31/2009 7:32:36 PM | message detail
I still can't see how people consider:

1) Melee to be in the top 10
2) Brawl to not be

Common sense dictates that Brawl kicks Melee's ass, and everything we've seen so far supports this.
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