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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 735

HaRRicH | Posted 5/31/2009 4:37:44 PM | message detail
I don't like the idea of LoZ:LttP being the easy favorite over SM64. CT beat SMW, SMB3, and LoZ:LttP in the last BGE-contest, and now SM64 beat it twice in a row -- once with SMW2:YI, once with Goldeneye (and FF7)...yet it's going in as the heavy underdog against LoZ:LttP? Just a few things of note:


--> I'll respect that CT dropped; much like the rest of old-Square, it's just not been that impressive. That said, it's had a recent remake that did well in the GotY-polls as far as ports go, CT had a strong R1-match, and SM64 still beat it almost as bad as CT beat SMB3 back in the day...

--> ...and honestly, we don't KNOW that this is just an old-Square problem or an old-game problem; we've long wondered how older games would hold up against newer games. SM64 isn't new, but it's been a launch game for two newer systems than the SNES (one of which is the DS, the most owned current-generation system here). SM64 was also on the VC since the Wii's release while LoZ:LttP hasn't always been on there, for whatever that's worth...

--> ...and I doubt Nintendo-SFF favors most older games against most newer games as long as we're not dealing with extremes (keep your SMG > SMB1-jabs to yourself!). We saw LoZ:LttP stave off FF3/6 despite SM and LoZ:LA, which is nice, but those are two games it's beaten before and a game that would obviously be SFF'd; it should have aged better than all three of them anyway. SM64 should be the first Nintendo game it faces that is particularly more relevant than it.

--> FF7 may be hiding something fishy from us. It allowed MK64 to get 30% on it despite SF64, then only allowed GE to get 33% despite SMRPG and MK64...but then only allowed SM64 to break 35% despite Goldeneye and FF7 having to deal with CT. During all this, SF64 was smashed by MK64, MK64 was embarrassed by SMRPG, SMRPG was beaten by GE twice, and GE went from 33% to 26% on FF7 when SM64 came into play. If SM64 isn't showing particularly great strength in a raw sense, I think it shows it's got a good shot of having great strength in a SFF-sense (if you keep it away from LoZ:OoT). If there's any truth to that, LoZ:LttP may get challenged harder than it'd like.

--> FF3/6 being a SNES-hit while SM64 being the lone N64-rep can't help LoZ:LttP, though I'm not crazy about system-SFF/overlap arguments.


LoZ:LttP should be the favorite; this round showed it's got SFF-chops and CT has probably dropped a LOT since 2004 despite its port. I just think it's still going to be a close match with decent upset-potential.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
Naomi_Diamond | Posted 5/31/2009 4:37:57 PM | message detail
playeralec has now misspelled MGS3 twice in two consecutive posts.

:tmyk:

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ziggie ziggie wop wop
playeralec93 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:39:12 PM | message detail
That's why it would be amazing and hilarious to see!
No one would expect RE4 to win if MG3 gets the lead at this time, so if they did, it could be incredible.

And since I don't care whether MG3 or RE4 beat each other, I'm just looking for an interesting match.
playeralec93 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:41:37 PM | message detail
Oops, I suppose that's three posts now.
I should really remember those S'.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/31/2009 4:45:01 PM | message detail
MGS3 sure likes those half hour stalls
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
shane15 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:46:47 PM | message detail
Onward to victory resi! *points towards quarter final spot*
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"School Rumble rocks your world,Stay tuned to see hot girls!" - Class 2-C Cheerleaders
<3 Yuko Ogura
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:00:14 PM | message detail
MGS3 is winning updates again...
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 5:00:52 PM | message detail
http://www.darkknightandjoekerr.com/AndHereWeGo.gif
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
ZFS | Posted 5/31/2009 5:01:30 PM | message detail
victory is guaranteed

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 5:05:31 PM | message detail
or not lol
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:05:46 PM | message detail
The predetermined winner of MGS3/RE4... Coming soon to a website near you.
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The Gamer In Me
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/31/2009 5:08:19 PM | message detail
MGS3: Just kidding lol
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 5:09:31 PM | message detail
You know, every time you post that Joker GIF, Albion, it has the opposite effect.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Janus5000 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:14:43 PM | message detail
Well, it didn't say what was going where... MGS3 just took it as a sign to go get buried.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 5:15:07 PM | message detail
Hmm I shoulda used it earlier when RE4 was doing cuts then
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 5:15:37 PM | message detail
16 vote cut. Hopefully MGS3 can put together consecutive cuts here and make a run.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/31/2009 5:15:51 PM | message detail
Does RE4 escape this match...? Or will MGS3 do what MGS does best and pull the rug out from under RE4's feet...?!?
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Janus5000 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:15:57 PM | message detail
http://www.darkknightandjoekerr.com/AndHereWeGo.gif
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 5:16:42 PM | message detail
darn you janus

Hopefully using it spitefully results in the opposite effect.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
charmander6000 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:19:03 PM | message detail
You know RE4 could build a 300 vote lead with one hour to go and I'd still won't feel safe.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 5:19:48 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #370
You know RE4 could build a 300 vote lead with one hour to go and I'd still won't feel safe.


I would.. I just can't see the MGS fans rallying to guarantee a MGS4 loss next round
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 5:21:19 PM | message detail
I would.. I just can't see the MGS fans rallying to guarantee a MGS4 loss next round

I think you're assuming too much foresight and assuming fans know/care that much.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
charmander6000 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:22:15 PM | message detail
Though updates like those make me feel good.

I would.. I just can't see the MGS fans rallying to guarantee a MGS4 loss next round

There are probably some MGS fans that hate MGS4 and would rather see MGS3 advance even if it meant killing off both games.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 5:22:40 PM | message detail
The thing is, people who rally for the contest are likely the ones who know more about the matches and all. People who just randomly vote aren't gonna be the ones who rally, it will be B8 members or other people who follow the contests enough to care to rally
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 5:23:34 PM | message detail
And you know, I haven't seen a single MGS3 fan say "Don't vote for MGS3 because it will kill MGS4 next round!" The only ones saying that are either 1. MGS4 > MGS3 people or 2. People who have MGS4 going deep in their bracket. MGS3 fans don't care.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:23:46 PM | message detail
I'm just going to test this "Joker Gif theory".

http://www.darkknightandjoekerr.com/AndHereWeGo.gif
http://www.darkknightandjoekerr.com/AndHereWeGo.gif
http://www.darkknightandjoekerr.com/AndHereWeGo.gif
http://www.darkknightandjoekerr.com/AndHereWeGo.gif
http://www.darkknightandjoekerr.com/AndHereWeGo.gif

Now, if RE4 can't get a huge vote spike in its favour, I'll hereby debunk that theory.
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The Gamer In Me
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 5:25:33 PM | message detail
And here we...stall.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:25:41 PM | message detail
Theory debunked. I don't even think RE4 even gained any votes on its lead then.
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The Gamer In Me
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/31/2009 5:26:00 PM | message detail
seems joker helps oblivion
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:26:58 PM | message detail
Who does Harvey help?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/31/2009 5:39:21 PM | message detail
Halo, in some unrelated poll. "Believe" and all that.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 5:40:58 PM | message detail
http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p275/kevinsmells1/Kevin/BigBoss.jpg
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:41:12 PM | message detail
There didn't seem to be any difference in percentage in that update. MGS3 won that update, though.
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The Gamer In Me
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transience | Posted 5/31/2009 5:41:37 PM | message detail
I think we're gonna stall here for a while.
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xyzzy
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:42:16 PM | message detail
... And then Big Boss will inflitrate Leon Kennedy.
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The Gamer In Me
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/31/2009 5:47:21 PM | message detail
RE4 just can't get that lead over 200. Strangely enough, it stalled around this area for a while when it was trying to come back.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:52:25 PM | message detail
this isn't RE4 desparately tryign to end this match now, I don't know what is.
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The Gamer In Me
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/31/2009 5:52:29 PM | message detail
This match still has definite potential. Letting MGS stay within striking distance at the end seems like one of those ungood ideas.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
transience | Posted 5/31/2009 5:53:27 PM | message detail
okay, where do we get the idea that MGS is some god in the last hour? it's got a good night vote, but so does RE4. at this point I'll favor whoever has the lead.
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/31/2009 5:55:14 PM | message detail
That's true, but MGS is like 3-0 in those down to the wire situations. Of course, the hard part will be getting down to the wire, but I get the feeling people are hungry for a good match and will rally anything if it seems like a good cause.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
transience | Posted 5/31/2009 5:56:02 PM | message detail
Liquid Snake got destroyed by Alucard in the last hour. don't let the last update fool you.
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xyzzy
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 5:56:30 PM | message detail
Well, at least this'll probably not end with over a 500 vote difference.
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The Gamer In Me
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transience | Posted 5/31/2009 5:56:57 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2882&type=1&seconds=3600&max=0

bam.
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xyzzy
PiGuy96 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:00:08 PM | message detail
Same thing with Snake/Sephy in the Battle Royale. That was Snake barely hanging on to a lead, not dominating the last hour to come back.
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RPGuy netbook remix
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/31/2009 6:00:20 PM | message detail
okay, where do we get the idea that MGS is some god in the last hour? it's got a good night vote, but so does RE4. at this point I'll favor whoever has the lead.

Some fanbases are willing to cheat. Metal Gear Solid is one of the biggest cheaters in GameFAQs contest history.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:00:27 PM | message detail
7 vote cut right there. No Joker Gif this time.
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The Gamer In Me
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/31/2009 6:01:25 PM | message detail
Needs 5 vote cuts per update to win. We're on pace oh yeah let's go
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 6:01:46 PM | message detail
What proclaim will be next? Vincent dropped off in the last few updates? Axel dropped off in the last few updates? FFT dropped off in the last few updates?
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The Gamer In Me
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ZFS | Posted 5/31/2009 6:02:04 PM | message detail
I think the idea of MGS3 coming back in the last hour is less about its second night vote and more about fans of MGS3 being more willing to rally/cheat if it's as close as this. Who knows, though.

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transience | Posted 5/31/2009 6:03:34 PM | message detail
it has nothing to do with rallying or cheating though. it has to do with the game having a night vote.

besides, anything can come back on Sephiroth in the last minute. it's Sephiroth.
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xyzzy