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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 735

voltch | Posted 5/31/2009 3:22:27 PM | message detail
these are the matches we all love,contests need em more,though to be fair,t feels anticlimactic when they're just playing for 2nd,TP is the ignored runaway winner.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/31/2009 3:23:18 PM | message detail

From: Janus5000 | #300
It would be the greatest justice in the world if RE4 had a big lead going into the last hour and only ended up winning by 27 votes.


Lord almighty, yes.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:23:33 PM | message detail
It would be the greatest justice in the world if RE4 had a big lead going into the last hour and only ended up losing by 27 votes.

Fixed.
Especially since RE ALWAYS loses with 27 votes.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/31/2009 3:23:55 PM | message detail
It would be the greatest justice in the world if RE4 had a big lead going into the last hour and only ended up winning by 27 votes.

A 200 vote lead going into the final hour should be enough to give RE4 a win. 300 would make the match a lock for RE4. Frog could cut 200 votes in the final hour, but I don't think MGS3 can do that.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
transience | Posted 5/31/2009 3:24:32 PM | message detail
MGS3: going down on you faster than Eva.
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:24:52 PM | message detail
Let's keep RE4 well away from the number 27.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/31/2009 3:25:25 PM | message detail
And there it is. I had a feeling the true day vote would favor RE4 here. Though, I didn't think it would take this long, as the SNV worries me.

Hoping MGS3 pulls a "The Boss" here and does what it needs to for the greater good!
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 55 - Bracket: TP > RE4 - Vote: RE4 (247/352)
charmander6000 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:26:07 PM | message detail
We're heading for about 126k votes. Use that to get an idea of any late rallying going on later.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:26:14 PM | message detail
So how does everyone feel about LTTP/SM64? Does LTTP having a 65% chance of winning sound about right?
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
voltch | Posted 5/31/2009 3:26:32 PM | message detail
well there's no Jill in RE4 right?
so no worries?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:27:38 PM | message detail
So how does everyone feel about LTTP/SM64? Does LTTP having a 65% chance of winning sound about right?

I see SM64 holding on, but I don't see it winning.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:27:54 PM | message detail
LttP would have to really, really drop the ball to not beat out Mario 64 next round.
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
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paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:29:27 PM | message detail
I'm calling it for RE4.

Why? To jinx it.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
greatone10 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:30:29 PM | message detail

From: Janus5000 | Posted: 5/31/2009 3:21:38 PM | #300
It would be the greatest justice in the world if RE4 had a big lead going into the last hour and only ended up winning by 27 votes.


RE generally loses matches by 27 votes.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
Janus5000 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:30:31 PM | message detail
Well, CT = LttP, so...
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:30:45 PM | message detail
It doesn't work that way- you've really got to believe it.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/31/2009 3:31:40 PM | message detail
I'm amazed that MGS3 isn't even offering up any real resistance here.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:31:55 PM | message detail
That was referring to the calling it for RE4 thing, just in case there was any doubt.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:32:26 PM | message detail
CT's dropped off since 2004. LttP has remained stronger or stronger due to the Nintendo boost.

It goes 60-40 with SM64 and everyone realises CT is weaksauce.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
Janus5000 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:32:54 PM | message detail
What are you talking about? That last update MGS3 just canceled out the last 3 gains.

...Oh, you're talking about MGS3/RE4.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
consolefreak | Posted 5/31/2009 3:33:27 PM | message detail
I'd probably take FFX > MGS too if it came to it, but common sense just doesn't apply here (not to mention it's officially replaced blindly following x-stats as the most overused, worst, argument in this topic)- I see no reason why MGS couldn't be stronger than FFX. Could I imagine Nintendo fans voting Samus over Mario? I had a hard time doing that, and I think most people did, even those who took Samus. Can I imagine people voting for MGS over FFX? Yes, yes I can. FFX > MGS is not "common" sense.

Look I'm basing FFX > MGS on their matches, not common sense. I was just saying in response to your stats argument that I'd rather assume FFX > MGS than assume KH=KH2 (which is also a non-statistical statement, and which was the basis of your argument).


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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/31/2009 3:34:38 PM | message detail
FF6 goes from 47.3% against LttP 1v1 to 45.5% sharing a poll with Link's Awakening and Super Metroid

SM64 barely beating CT doesn't look great for toppling LttP
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:36:00 PM | message detail
Anyway, should RE4 somehow win this...
Bold Prediction: MGS4 is revealed to be weaker than everyone originally thought. the MGS/RE overlap will cost its chance to advance an will show that MGS4 is a tad stronger than MGS3 by beating RE4 by 2000 votes. TP will avoid SFF from Brawl and instead rSFF's Brawl to take first.

Book it.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/31/2009 3:36:07 PM | message detail
MGS3 comeback here we go
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/31/2009 3:36:31 PM | message detail
Nice to see I jinxed RE4.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
HaRRicH | Posted 5/31/2009 3:37:17 PM | message detail
Hey MGS-fans, you gotta remember that not all of us want to see MGS4 go far while MGS3 is eliminated in the division final. Loan me some money so I can play MGS4, and we'll talk. Until then, go MGS3 go!
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BT > Harrich
lol me
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:37:33 PM | message detail
Do I see MGS3 sneek attacking its way to 2nd? Oh yes, I do.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/31/2009 3:38:34 PM | message detail
SM64 barely beating CT doesn't look great for toppling LttP

I would rather soon blame CT as dropping over the past 5 years rather than SM64 being a legit powerhouse. Zelda 1/SM64 would probably be debatable here, but LttP should still be our second strongest Zelda game. I don't think LttP is in any serious danger here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:40:32 PM | message detail
Zelda 1/SM64 would probably be debatable here, but LttP should still be our second strongest Zelda game. I don't think LttP is in any serious danger here.

Welcome aboard the Zelda 1 > SM64/SMW hype train! Now that someone else has finally come, I can get off this train and you can be conductor!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
transience | Posted 5/31/2009 3:41:10 PM | message detail
you've been looking to pawn that off to someone else for years!
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xyzzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/31/2009 3:44:48 PM | message detail
We got a good stall pattern going on here. Next lead will be 37!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:45:45 PM | message detail
WHOO 2 VOTE CUT!

Re4 you are so going down.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:56:18 PM | message detail
This is going to be one of those "lol close match" matches, isn't it?
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/31/2009 3:58:41 PM | message detail
RE4 is cheating.
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I can feel it coming over me; I feel it all around me.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 5/31/2009 4:00:06 PM | message detail
What do you buying?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:00:07 PM | message detail
But I thought MGS3 was the cheater?
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
charmander6000 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:02:20 PM | message detail
Time | MGS3
1:00 | 50.06%
2:00 | 51.25%
3:00 | 50.87%
4:00 | 49.50%
5:00 | 52.58%
6:00 | 53.67%
7:00 | 55.09%
8:00 | 52.33%
9:00 | 50.24%
10:00 | 50.00%
11:00 | 48.74%
12:00 | 48.93%
13:00 | 49.26%
14:00 | 47.74%
15:00 | 48.34%
16:00 | 50.50%
17:00 | 48.31%
18:00 | 48.45%
19:00 | 46.41%

Best hour for RE4.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/31/2009 4:03:24 PM | message detail
Clearly that was shenanigans!

MGS3 struggling with Oblivion is also because of Oblivion cheaters
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
ZFS | Posted 5/31/2009 4:03:25 PM | message detail
Oh man RE4 came back this won't do

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
Janus5000 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:04:41 PM | message detail
I predict a spike for MGS3 shortly. n_n
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:11:22 PM | message detail
RE4 should be pretty consistent throughout the rest of the match.

So MGS3's only hope is to not only stall RE4 from getting over 250 votes for the next couple of hours, it's gotta start the rallying shortly after 2 hours from the poll finish.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
Zylo the wolf | Posted 5/31/2009 4:13:38 PM | message detail
Oh man at this rate MGS3 have to gain more than 1 vote on RE4 each update if it wants to advance. RE4 is a lock!
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:15:46 PM | message detail
More like at least -1 vote per update until the rallying comes in, in which it should finish with a 150 vote lead.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
BDawg | Posted 5/31/2009 4:17:36 PM | message detail
Rallying has no effect on THE Mistah Kennedy?!
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Should I start running now?
playeralec93 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:18:53 PM | message detail
Who's going to rally for MSG3?
Zylo the wolf | Posted 5/31/2009 4:20:11 PM | message detail
EPIC OBLIVION CUT.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me
BDawg | Posted 5/31/2009 4:21:05 PM | message detail
The same people who rally for anything. The Fanboyz(TM)!
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Should I start running now?
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:25:46 PM | message detail
This has got to be the best match of the contest. The only thing that'll completely take that award away from this match is if RE4 escapes with the lead.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
playeralec93 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:34:44 PM | message detail
I think it would be awesome to see MG3 come out ahead, and then right before the poll closes RE4 beats MG3 out by just a few points.
paulg235 | Posted 5/31/2009 4:35:55 PM | message detail
SInce whne has RE ever had a winning rally?
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158