GameFAQs Contests

Wouldn't have expected MGS3/RE4 overlap, but I guess it's possible. Oblivion not doing all that much better, it was at 40% on MG3 an hour into last match, it's at like 43%-44% here. I guess that's a similar difference to how much worse RE4 is doing on TP though.

If MGS3 and RE4 do LFF (and I'm pretty skeptical), then MGS3 is almost as strong as TP, and MGS4 should be significantly stronger. The latter of those I can see being true, but I don't know.

Right now I'm seeing Brawl>MGS4 in the quarters, though it could be MGS4>Brawl if TP can resist SFF against Brawl. Course if MGS4 and RE4 LFF, they could hurt each other more than TP and Brawl do! :) I have trouble seeing that being true.
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It depends on how the fanbase sides. There's some reason to believe that MGS4 wins the split because it's looked stronger (of course, RE4 looked stronger than MGS3 to this point, too; we never really had a good read on MGS3's competition) and it's more recent, but I wouldn't be surprised if it pull off something there. MGS3 is top tier among the fanbase, no doubt about that.

Although I still have a hard time imagining either MGS games advances next round, if both are there. Gotta see how MGS4 holds up to Brawl tomorrow. Everything says Brawl should win that match easy.

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And RE4 manages to take the lead even though its by 1.

Snake had better hope Leon hasn't gotten wise to his tricks.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

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Currently in production. Will make pictures bigger later.

Hurm.
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then MGS3 is almost as strong as TP, and MGS4 should be significantly stronger.

Not sure why this is the natural conclusion here.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

KH got 46.7% on FFX in R2, and 44.5% in R1. That's not that big a shift.

It is considering how different the games are from one another, being about as far apart and still Square as you can get. If FFX had actually been in striking distance of Melee, it would have likely been a lot worse for KH.

That's the main thing - if it's obvious that MGS4 doesn't have a chance to advance in that match from the beginning, then I could see a much more even split for the two MGS games. But if it looks like advancing is on the line within a couple percentage points or so, MGS3 is going to get hammered.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

MGS4 has had a path tailor made for it to look strong. It fought a generally weak game, a game with a high floor (but a low ceiling), and a weak PS3 game it could SFF in Round 1. It then fought Team Xbox in Round 2. The more I think about it, the more I see Brawl kicking its butt tomorrow.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

aww yeah oblivion cut
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At this point I think I'd rather have a really close and unpredictable match all the way till the end than a good result for my bracket. I still remember smashing the F5 button the last 20 minutes of Liquid Snake/Alucard.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.

If TP=MGS3 then how come TP can kick Oblivion's ass much worse than MGS3 did in the last round? I don't see any reason for an underperformance there. Unless you want to include Oblivion into this MGS3/RE4 LFF which starts to get a little crazy
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Onilink12 (1:13:53 AM): DAMN YOU YOU STOLE MY FORMAT AGAIN
Onilink12 (1:13:56 AM): I like it though
Thunderous Zen (1:14:38 AM): wait what format?!
Thunderous Zen (1:14:44 AM): WHAT DID I STEAL THIS TIME
Onilink12 (1:14:56 AM): I made this earlier
Onilink12 (1:15:00 AM): As a sort of joke
Onilink12 (1:15:02 AM): http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/5980/r4pokemonrby2.png
Thunderous Zen (1:15:13 AM): HOLY ****ING **** I DIDN'T EVEN SEE THAT
Thunderous Zen (1:15:15 AM): WHAT THE HELL
Thunderous Zen (1:15:19 AM): HOW DOES THIS ALWAYS HAPPEN
Onilink12 (1:15:26 AM): Because you're a THIEF
Onilink12 (1:15:32 AM): Like in Link's Awakening
Onilink12 (1:15:33 AM): THIEF

can an admin please change my username to "Thief"
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
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Yeah, I'm not sure that MGS4 actually is stronger than 3, although in all likelihood it is. MGS/RE LFF is going to pale in comparison to the Nintendo overlap next round though- that is going to be very severe (which would yet be smaller than MGS/MGS LFF of course). Really old Nintendo is the broadest fanbase there is on the site, but New Nintendo has a very narrow, monolithic, fanbase.
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The more I think about it, the more I see Brawl kicking its butt tomorrow.

This is what I'm expecting as well. It all depends on how MGS4 does there tomorrow.

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If TP=MGS3 then how come TP can kick Oblivion's ass much worse than MGS3 did in the last round?

Oblivion was locked in an all day affair to advance, complete with having to stave off real or imagined Blizzard rally threats. MGS3 underperformed relative to that pack.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

MGS3 apparently having overlap with a mature game doesn't instill me with a lot of confidence in MGS4 tomorrow.

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MGS/RE LFF is going to pale in comparison to the Nintendo overlap next round though- that is going to be very severe (which would yet be smaller than MGS/MGS LFF of course). Really old Nintendo is the broadest fanbase there is on the site, but New Nintendo has a very narrow, monolithic, fanbase.

I think you're probably right.

If MGS3 advances though both MGS games are screwed. Even if MGS4 kills MGS3 (which itself is doubtful) it still won't have much of a chance, because IMO these games don't have anything close to the playrates necessary to not LFF hardcore.
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cya re4
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

night vote has arrived confirmed

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Hey, Fallout 3 only seemed to help MGS4 last time around! Now all we need is for that to remain the case (and in fact become even more pronounced) and for CoD4 to just be another FO3, and MGS4 should be golden.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

creativename | Posted 5/31/2009 1:12:24 AM | message detail
Wouldn't have expected MGS3/RE4 overlap, but I guess it's possible. Oblivion not doing all that much better, it was at 40% on MG3 an hour into last match, it's at like 43%-44% here. I guess that's a similar difference to how much worse RE4 is doing on TP though.

Your thoughts on my proposed "Mature game LFF"?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Luster I think it's past your bedtime.
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[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

RE4 lost very little ground to KH in round 1- that match had very even looking trends, even for the weekend. KH ended 1.19% higher on RE4 than it was at at this time. That's good news for RE4 come daytime, but it's bad news for the rest of the night, as KH has a pretty awful late night vote, and RE4 didn't do too much better than it there.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

That's the main thing - if it's obvious that MGS4 doesn't have a chance to advance in that match from the beginning, then I could see a much more even split for the two MGS games. But if it looks like advancing is on the line within a couple percentage points or so, MGS3 is going to get hammered.

Isn't this assuming that most voters check poll results before voting? Pretty sure almost no one actually does that, especially given the results from certain polls with results that change after voting.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/31/2009 1:25:08 AM | message detail
Luster I think it's past your bedtime.

I don't have a bedtime since I already completed high school.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

woah woah woah what is THIS

as awesome as MGS3 is, I don't need it in round 4 taking down the superior MGS4 with it augh

Seriously what the hell RE4
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 55 - Bracket: TP > RE4 - Vote: RE4 (247/352)

Isn't this assuming that most voters check poll results before voting? Pretty sure almost no one actually does that, especially given the results from certain polls with results that change after voting.

I used to think this as well, but we've seen it happen a TON in the four-way character battles (heck, voters are evaluating the results from day to day - hello bandwagons!). We just don't have enough data when it comes to games contests.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Your thoughts on my proposed "Mature game LFF"?

I'm skeptical, though I wouldn't rule it out completely, because all sorts of things can be happening without us knowing for sure.
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Bandwagons are different than voters checking poll results. I don't think anyone does that. If people vote based on who needs help, I would think it'll be based on their preconceptions, not checking results.
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i am enjoying this simply to screw over menji tbqh. after seeing him beign so elitist about his MGS4 pick to win the contest, I'm glad to see him screwed over
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Voters can make choices based on how they think the results will look before actually seeing them. For example, look at Link/Mario/Sephiroth/Vincent. Sephiroth WON THE BOARD VOTE and was in first at the freeze. Why? Because early Nintendo voters defected from Link to Mario in droves, leaving Link barely above Mario and just below Seph. In the end, Link managed to get up to 62% on Mario and beat Seph, despite FFVII being up at the freeze normally indicating an easy victory.

Now, this was clearly a ridiculous move on the part of Nintendo fans- we'd already seen Sephiroth tear Mario apart 3 times, the most recent like a week before that, without any Link in the poll, so it was absurd to try to get Mario over Seph- but they did it.
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hmmm MGS3 was this strong?
but TP really is a strong zelda game.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455

Time to throw out some numbers.....I think RE4 can come back if it keeps the lead under 1200 by 9 AM.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

1200? No way, RE4s day vote isn't THAT good. I'd say 600-700 max
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

Vote total stats:

Final Fantasy X kept about 91.08% of its votes from last round and about 61.23% of its votes from the round before. I wonder how much it'll explode when Kingdom Hearts gets off its back.

Kingdom Hearts kept about 84.26% of its votes from last round and about 57.61% of its votes from the round before. Not much to say.

Super Smash Bros. Melee kept about 93.59% of its votes from last round and about 73.77% of its votes from the round before. Been looking good all contest.

Diablo II kept about 67.23% of its votes from last round and about 63.39% of its votes from the round before. Did it have to split the RPG vote?

1. Final Fantasy VII
2. Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3. Zelda: A Link to the Past
4. Super Mario Bros.
5. Super Smash Bros. Melee
6. The Legend of Zelda
7. Final Fantasy VI
8. Super Mario Bros. 3
9. Super Mario World
10. Final Fantasy X
11. Super Mario 64
12. Pokemon Red/Blue
13. Chrono Trigger
14. Kingdom Hearts
15. Metal Gear Solid
16. Final Fantasy IV
17. Final Fantasy VIII
18. Diablo II
19. Super Metroid
20. GoldenEye
21. Tetris
22. Sonic the Hedgehog
23. Mega Man 2
24. Zelda: Link’s Awakening

Sephiroth WON THE BOARD VOTE and was in first at the freeze.

Link actually had a 3 vote lead over Sephiroth at the freeze (confirmed with the updater site).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

MGS3 topped 100 vote lead with a 40 vote gain there. Gotta like MGS3 so far
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KH2's percentage on RE4 moved something like 5% from its worst hour to its best hour in round 1. By comparison, yesterday KH moved about 15% from worst hour to best hour against FFX, which is probably fairly close to MGS3 in day vote power. Both of those were weekend matches, as is today's.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

this match is over isn't it?
MGS3 is building a lead at such a pace.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455

Well if RE4 can't come back from 1000 votes then it probably loses, since MGS3 seems like it's going to build that
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

My first 0 point match... (had Resident Evil 4 and Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas advancing out of the division)

Time to throw out some numbers.....I think RE4 can come back if it keeps the lead under 1200 by 9 AM.

KHII could barely get that on RE4 after cutting it for 10 hours. You're either thinking way too highly of RE4's day vote or too low of MGS3's because the difference between KHII's and RE4's day vote is gonna be larger than the difference between MGS3's and RE4's day vote. If MGS3 can break 1000 here, it's over.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Weird to think that a game that goes 60-40 with Tales of Symphonia beats RE4.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Time to stop thinking Tales of Symphonia is fodder
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

we shoulda seen this coming. theres only so weak games like GTA: SA and Halo 2 can be
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http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/110/akaitsuki02avi0001540295ns.jpg

Back again, and what's this??? RE4 is actually losing? Odd. Well, MGS3 advancing means that it likely seals MGS4's fate next round...
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Two big cuts for RE4 in a row. Hopefully MGS3 is still in this thing when I wake up in the morning.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

oblivion getting left in the dust,like diablo,that close first round 4 was just trash.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455

For example, look at Link/Mario/Sephiroth/Vincent. Sephiroth WON THE BOARD VOTE and was in first at the freeze. Why? Because early Nintendo voters defected from Link to Mario in droves, leaving Link barely above Mario and just below Seph.

That poll also suffered from some glitches in the beginning. The poll wasn't showing up on the homepage at first, so only a small few managed to vote in the poll by using a saved HTML page on their computer (which I even used to vote). It wasn't until about 12:03 AM that the poll finally showed up on the homepage. The freeze then occured at 12:08 AM with Link at a 51 vote lead (only a 3 vote lead at 12:05 AM).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Oops, I guess it's not good that I have MGS3 placing 2nd in the finals. Don't know what I was thinking.

Aw yeah, it'll happen. >_>
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