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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 734

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:51:12 PM | message detail
j
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/30/2009 9:51:45 PM | message detail
I call Oblivion LFF! Non-FPS games from a first-person view. So obvious, can't believe I didn't see it coming.

If you read some earlier posts in this topic, you would notice that I called Mature game LFF because it's 3 Mature games against a non-Mature game. Not to much TP stands out much more against this fourpack of 3 Mature games.
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ZFS | Posted 5/30/2009 9:51:54 PM | message detail
assuming mgs3 wins here wouldn't want to get carried away

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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 9:51:58 PM | message detail
I thought FFX > MGS was the consensus, too.

That was before MGS got 36% against OoT and 54% against FF8. Who knows, now!

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/30/2009 9:52:01 PM | message detail
MGS didn't exactly have a great fourth entrant in FFVIII. MGS4 might be seen as the "last hope" for people, and Brawl would be a great fourth entrant for it. I have no problem taking MGS to place second had you replaced FFVIII with Brawl.
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:52:03 PM | message detail
So how big of a lead does MGS3 need? 600?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 9:52:12 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #350
Yeah...if you replaced 3 with 2, and told me that my vote for 4 would decide whether or not it moved on...I would still vote 2, damnit.


Same. I'm a big MGS fan, and I love the 2nd the most. I wouldn't vote for a MGS game on a system I don't have over it! I'm sure theres plenty of MGS fans who only played the first three but haven't bought a PS3 for only one game
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:52:56 PM | message detail
That was before MGS got 36% against OoT and 54% against FF8. Who knows, now!

FFX is projected to get 36% or so on FFVII indirectly in 2004. I fail to see the problem here.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:52:57 PM | message detail
Okay, I think this explains a lot.

Nintendo fans are willing to do anything to win. Therefore, they almost always do win.

FFVII fans are willing to do something to win once a year or so- they get occasional victories this way.

MGS fans are apparently not willing to lift a finger to win- and so MGS has never won a contest.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/30/2009 9:53:30 PM | message detail
Darn right! I don't care if MGS4 is tied for second with a chance to win with my vote! I'm still voting MGS3!

I'm sure there were Sephiroth fans who said the same thing!

Obviously, Cloud/Sephiroth is an extreme exception - but really, it doesn't need to be that extreme if Brawl and TP hurt each other as well. Substitute Brawl for Oblivion in this match, what happens?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:53:51 PM | message detail
Snake has won the male bracket and placed in the finals last year. Good enough for me.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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ZFS | Posted 5/30/2009 9:53:52 PM | message detail
Give me FFX > MGS by a good bit. What it did yesterday is more than enough to give it a big edge heading into next round.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 9:54:24 PM | message detail
FFX is projected to get 36% or so on FFVII indirectly in 2004. I fail to see the problem here.

Oh god, let's not get into the complete mess that is the 2k4 stats.

Looking at this contest only, I'd say it's debatable.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:54:28 PM | message detail
I'm sure there were Sephiroth fans who said the same thing!

Sephiroth fans are bad people in general anyway!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:55:21 PM | message detail
Oh god, let's not get into the complete mess that is the 2k4 stats.

It doesn't even require that much stretching. Melee gets 37% on FFVII, FFX gets 49% on Melee. Simple.

Granted, it was 2004, but it got 45% on Melee yesterday with KH weighing it down a bit.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:55:55 PM | message detail
FFVIII or Kingdom Hearts, which do you take? MGS and FFX put up similar performances on the two.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:56:00 PM | message detail
Resident Evil 4 trying to take this lead...BACK TO ZERO!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 9:56:14 PM | message detail
they love their 9 vote changes
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ZFS | Posted 5/30/2009 9:57:37 PM | message detail
Sephiroth fans are bad people in general anyway!

http://i44.tinypic.com/hwh4yo.gif !

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Xcarvenger | Posted 5/30/2009 9:58:07 PM | message detail
I think you guys are forgetting something. Brawl is gonna SFF TP to the ground.

If it is TP/MGS3/4/Brawl, the result is going to be Brawl > MGS4 > 3 > TP
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:58:17 PM | message detail
The thing about the 2004 stats is that I really do not trust FFVII's matches with Melee or CT. Those matches feel a lot like Sephiroth/Ganondorf and Sephiroth/Bowser at the end of the villains contest. Note that Melee and CT had jokish trends, while OOT couldn't win the first update against FFVII.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:58:56 PM | message detail
I think you guys are forgetting something. Brawl is gonna SFF TP to the ground.

I doubt it.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:59:03 PM | message detail
Man what a heated battle for 2nd place going on here.

I could imagine Snake and Leon in a CQC duel right now.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 9:59:29 PM | message detail
The relationship between Cloud/Sephiroth is nothing like the relationship between MGS4/MGS3. People voting for them are often voting out of a general love for FF7, and they'll dtich one of those characters to see FF7 prevail.

I just can't see that happening with MGS. People aren't gonna ditch MGS3 for MGS4 to see MGS in general prevail. The fanbase isn't like that, and the fact that they're different games instead of being characters from the same game points against it.

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MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/30/2009 10:00:32 PM | message detail
If TP had significant LFF with KH2 which is the only thing that makes sense at this point, I don't see how Brawl doesn't slaughter it.
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creativename | Posted 5/30/2009 10:00:34 PM | message detail
So like...what are the popular theories being bandied about as to why RE4 is flopping so hard this round after giving Twilight Princess a run last match? Because I'm confused.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/30/2009 10:00:47 PM | message detail
Hmmm... this is probably going to undervalue Twilight Princess. Brawl will go in the huge favorite, as I'm expecting it to tear tomorrow's poll open.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 10:00:49 PM | message detail
wait Leon got rid of his phoenix sig?!

noooooo
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 10:01:22 PM | message detail
TP only gains 11 on MGS3 and 16 on RE4 to close the power hour. I think we'll be seeing a lot of cutting tonight.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 10:01:25 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #376
So like...what are the popular theories being bandied about as to why RE4 is flopping so hard this round after giving Twilight Princess a run last match? Because I'm confused.


obviously tons of overlap with Oblivion
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 10:01:25 PM | message detail
So like...what are the popular theories being bandied about as to why RE4 is flopping so hard this round after giving Twilight Princess a run last match? Because I'm confused.

Overlap with MGS3? Oblivion is doing better on MGS3 than last round.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/30/2009 10:01:27 PM | message detail
It's easily explained by

lol extrapolation
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 10:01:30 PM | message detail
If TP had significant LFF with KH2 which is the only thing that makes sense at this point

I'm thinking MGS3/RE4 LFF makes more sense.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/30/2009 10:02:13 PM | message detail
So like...what are the popular theories being bandied about as to why RE4 is flopping so hard this round after giving Twilight Princess a run last match? Because I'm confused.

Here's mine:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=49723887&message=545337606
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 10:04:20 PM | message detail
At the end of the Power Hour, TP's lead is about half of what it finished with last round.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/30/2009 10:04:41 PM | message detail
I'm thinking MGS3/RE4 LFF makes more sense.

Maybe, but I have chosen to expand that even more to make it "Mature game LFF". Oblivion is a Mature game as well. RE4 most likely overperformed last round due to TP/KH LFF.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 10:05:02 PM | message detail
the most realistic answer though is that RE4 and MGS3 are both major action titles on PS2, so they have a good deal of overlap. Makes sense seeing how well TP is doing on both of them and how Oblivion is doing better on MGS3 then last round
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 10:05:20 PM | message detail
Oblivion seems to be doing too well for me to think it's being affected. It'd be way in last place if it were getting LFF'd.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 10:05:58 PM | message detail
Man, MGS3 really doesn't want to give up that lead.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 10:06:07 PM | message detail
Hmm....I think the next 8 hours are going to be pretty rough for RE4, but it will win the day vote convincingly after that.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/30/2009 10:06:49 PM | message detail
I just can't see that happening with MGS. People aren't gonna ditch MGS3 for MGS4 to see MGS in general prevail. The fanbase isn't like that

Final Fantasy X and Kingdom Hearts, two games that have approximately nothing in common with one another aside from that obvious connection, changed percentages significantly based on nothing more than the strength of the games in the match. The Square fanbase wanted to see one of those two games succeed. The same goes for the MGS fanbase in that match.

Look, I'm not going to guarantee it goes one way or the other, because we've never seen two MGS entities go at it like this before. But there's plenty of precedent for a winnable situation IF the fanbase breaks the right way.

(and this is hardly a foregone conclusion to begin with, let's see RE4 lose before anything else firstly)
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/30/2009 10:08:24 PM | message detail
The next three updates are going to be very interesting. If MGS3 can't start opening up a lead in the next hour I don't see it having any chance at all.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/30/2009 10:08:49 PM | message detail
Crono/Vincent 2007

Time | Link | Vincent | Crono | Zero | Demographic
EBV | 41.70% | 17.75% | 27.29% | 13.26% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 44.07% | 18.54% | 24.15% | 13.24% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 43.10% | 22.42% | 22.55% | 11.93% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 47.64% | 22.85% | 18.80% | 10.71% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 44.57% | 22.42% | 21.72% | 11.29% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 46.88% | 21.41% | 18.74% | 12.97% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 43.19% | 22.61% | 20.39% | 13.81% | (22:00-24:00)


Looks like you did the match trends for all of the 2007 matches. You should try and put up the 2007 match trends on the Wiki.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 10:09:15 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | FFX | K. Hearts | SSBM | Diablo II | Demographic
EBV | 28.22% | 19.58% | 36.57% | 15.63% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 27.40% | 21.29% | 35.57% | 15.75% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 29.33% | 20.95% | 32.00% | 17.72% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 31.22% | 21.05% | 31.75% | 15.98% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 26.58% | 22.68% | 35.03% | 15.70% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 26.52% | 23.79% | 33.22% | 16.47% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 25.76% | 24.86% | 33.14% | 16.24% | (22:00-24:00)

SSBM gets off to a great start as usual and dive bombs with the night vote as usual. Nice jump into the late morning/early afternoon vote, but it actually went down in the afternoon. FFX has a good night vote and morning vote, going neck and neck with SSBM in the morning. The day vote was unkind to it, however. KH gets off to a very slow start, but it gradually gets stronger as the day progresses. The battle between KH and SSBM for day vote king is inconclusive. Needs to be on a weekday! Diablo has a good night vote, pretty even everywhere else.

Yesterday's stats:

Super Smash Bros. Melee – 50.00%
Final Fantasy X – 45.12%
Kingdom Hearts – 40.12%
Diablo II – 32.81%

Division Stats

Super Smash Bros. Melee – 50.00%
Final Fantasy X – 45.12%
Kingdom Hearts (Round 2) – 42.27%
Diablo II (Round 2) – 40.46%
Kingdom Hearts (Round 3) – 40.12%
Halo (Round 1) – 39.24%
Knights of the Old Republic – 38.30%
Metal Gear Solid 2 (Round 2) – 37.55%
Grand Theft Auto III – 36.11%
The Wind Waker (Round 2) – 34.75%
The Wind Waker (Round 1) – 34.36%
Metal Gear Solid 2 (Round 1) – 34.07%
Vice City (Round 2) – 33.20%
Halo (Round 2) – 33.03%
Diablo (Round 3) – 32.81%
Vice City (Round 1) – 32.63%
Metroid Prime – 30.96%
Morrowind – 24.60%
Disgaea – 23.75%
Paper Mario – 22.46%
Fire Emblem – 18.28%
Silent Hill 2 – 14.83%
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/30/2009 10:09:20 PM | message detail
I haven't played MGS4, but doesn't 3 have any sort of realistic shot to win the SFF split?

I ask because

TP > MGS3
Brawl > MGS3
Ocarina > MGS3 > Pokemon

would be one of the greatest series of events in contest history.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 10:10:11 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy X and Kingdom Hearts, two games that have approximately nothing in common with one another aside from that obvious connection, changed percentages significantly based on nothing more than the strength of the games in the match.

KH got 46.7% on FFX in R2, and 44.5% in R1. That's not that big a shift.

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Yesmar | Posted 5/30/2009 10:10:20 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy X and Kingdom Hearts, two games that have approximately nothing in common with one another aside from that obvious connection, changed percentages significantly based on nothing more than the strength of the games in the match.

?

FFX did only ~1-2% better.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 10:10:28 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy X and Kingdom Hearts, two games that have approximately nothing in common with one another aside from that obvious connection, changed percentages significantly based on nothing more than the strength of the games in the match. The Square fanbase wanted to see one of those two games succeed.

I'm not even sure this is what happened. It's a convenient explanation, sure, but it's not like FFX was ever in danger of not advancing yesterday.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/30/2009 10:11:13 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy X and Kingdom Hearts, two games that have approximately nothing in common with one another aside from that obvious connection, changed percentages significantly based on nothing more than the strength of the games in the match. The Square fanbase wanted to see one of those two games succeed.

They say Princess Zelda is, in actuality, a tomboy!
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 10:11:30 PM | message detail
Third time a game has had a 1 vote lead already. It'd be nice if it stayed this way!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."