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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 734

RPGuy96 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:28:26 PM | message detail
Yeah, I think MGS3 takes this. RE4's had a pretty good board vote/Power Hour throughout the whole contest, and it's not like it's going to come back on MGS3 in the day.

Very curious why RE4 was able to come so close to TP last round yet is so far away here. And no, yo, TP/KHII LFF doesn't explain anything because RE4/KHII stayed about constant.

If next round is TP/MGS3/Brawl/MGS4, I'd definitely pick both Nintendo options to advance. Big Boss vs Kirby with and without Raiden probably isn't the best example in the world to use thanks to picture related reasons but that was pretty harsh.

Heh, if that happens and RBY wins next round, FFVII could be the only non-Nintendo game in the semifinals. Deboost "whoops."
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Yesmar | Posted 5/30/2009 9:29:12 PM | message detail
I would like to stay in the Top 5, so please don't beat RE4, MGS3.

kthxbai
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/30/2009 9:29:16 PM | message detail

From: transience | #248
if MGS3 wins this (don't think it will, have you seen MGS's day vote lately?), I'll take Brawl > TP next round without thinking.


Same. Damn that Nintendo.
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paulg235 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:29:26 PM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. Melee 19.69% / 21.10%
Final Fantasy X 10.56% / 16.52%

...
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The Gamer In Me
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:29:56 PM | message detail
I don't know if you're joking or not, but Clould got the exact same percentage on Sephiroth in 2007.

No, he didn't. Cloud has been increasing his margins on Sephiroth for years, but 2008 was by far the worst its ever been.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 9:30:00 PM | message detail
it depends if MGS3 can build a lead overnight. 500 or so, I may feel safe
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:30:08 PM | message detail
I would like to stay in the Top 5, so please don't beat RE4, MGS3.

You probably wouldn't even fall out of the top 10 if MGS3 advances. Only 22% had it getting this far.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 9:30:15 PM | message detail
I'm sorry, but everyone was saying that exact same things about RBY/GS than you're saying about MGS4/MGS3. I believe I saw some 'RBY could 80-20 GS' comments floating around. Not buying it at all.

And for the sake of the argument, let's assume MGS4 does beat down MGS3. It probably still loses. We're talking about a 80%+ overlap between these two games. Brawl and TP will hurt each other, but not nearly as much.

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paulg235 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:30:41 PM | message detail
MGS3: Down but not out, just like Big Boss.
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iGenesis | Posted 5/30/2009 9:30:53 PM | message detail
From: transience | #248
if MGS3 wins this (don't think it will, have you seen MGS's day vote lately?), I'll take Brawl > TP next round without thinking.

Or MGS4 > Brawl.

Brawl vs. MGS4 is 52% vs. 48%.

Brawl/TP => SFF, and even if TP takes away 15% of potential Brawl votes (a conservative estimate), that should be enough to put MGS4 into first place :3 :3 :3
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Yesmar | Posted 5/30/2009 9:31:04 PM | message detail
Quick

OoT
Melee
TP
Brawl

Who you got?

OoT > Melee probably. In fact, that seems like the obvious choice, but it'd still be a pretty funny match.
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ZFS | Posted 5/30/2009 9:31:07 PM | message detail
Trying to keep the hope alive

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:31:10 PM | message detail
This could be one of those matches where it's close, but MGS3 never gets in reach.

My RE4 > TP upset is looking bad next round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:31:50 PM | message detail
OoT > Brawl!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:32:37 PM | message detail
Oh, you're right. Sephiroth did a whopping 1% worse in 2008.
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transience | Posted 5/30/2009 9:32:44 PM | message detail
MGS3 fell more from this point to the end of the match than RE4 did. RE4 was against KH2 and Zelda; MGS3 was against Oblivion and Tales of Symphonia.

liking RE4 in a big way here.
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xyzzy
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/30/2009 9:32:59 PM | message detail
This is making RE4 > MGS4 next round look pretty bad. Anyone think 3 is stronger than 4?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:33:29 PM | message detail
Oblivion and ToS have good day votes, too. Not as good as KHII and Zelda, granted, but it's not like they have awful day votes either.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
paulg235 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:33:49 PM | message detail
OoT > TP

With 3 Zelda games begging for scraps, FF7 wins the final with over 40% of the vote. XD
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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/30/2009 9:34:14 PM | message detail
I'm sorry, but everyone was saying that exact same things about RBY/GS than you're saying about MGS4/MGS3. I believe I saw some 'RBY could 80-20 GS' comments floating around. Not buying it at all.

RBY could decimate GS that severely, given the proper set up. Give it a close match where it needs it to advance, and watch GS's vote intake plummet.

This is ignoring the fact that the MGS3/MGS4 relation is completely different from the RBY/GS relationship on the merits, so I have no idea how you're even making that comparison with a straight face.

And for the sake of the argument, let's assume MGS4 does beat down MGS3. It probably still loses. We're talking about a 80%+ overlap between these two games. Brawl and TP will hurt each other, but not nearly as much.

Higher overlap, more SFF. MGS4 will beat down MGS3 far more than Brawl beats TP. Add in that MGS4 is probably already stronger than TP to begin with, and...
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:34:22 PM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. Melee 19.69% / 21.10%
Final Fantasy X 10.56% / 16.52%

...


I know I went from tied at 876 to tied at 509 and I thought that was a simple pick.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:34:24 PM | message detail
Heh, I'd laugh if TP somehow made it to the finals with OoT.

LTTP/FFVII/OoT/TP

Which one of these does not belong?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:35:01 PM | message detail
Yeah, MGS3/MGS4 LFF would be brutal. TP/Brawl LFF would also be really bad, about as bad as Nintendo LFF can get without the games being from the same series, but it wouldn't be at the level of MGS3/4 LFF. There's a difference between Cloud/Sephiroth and this too- we've seen Cloud/Sephiroth for years, everyone knew that Cloud was stronger, and people knew that Sephiroth was a lost cause, because they'd seen it before. It took years for Cloud to build up his ability to demolish Sephiroth- MGS4 doesn't have that luxury.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/30/2009 9:35:17 PM | message detail

From: paulg235 | #269
OoT > TP

With 3 Zelda games begging for scraps, FF7 wins the final with over 40% of the vote. XD


Ocarina never "begs for scraps." It dunks LttP and TP's heads in the toilet, steals their lunch money, and beats FFVII in a 1v1 the next day.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:35:52 PM | message detail
This is going to be a crazy night.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:36:02 PM | message detail
Oblivion got killed on that update. Whoops.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ZFS | Posted 5/30/2009 9:36:19 PM | message detail
beats FFVII in a 1v1 the next day.

We were good until this!

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:36:56 PM | message detail
Twilight Princess and Brawl are THE Nintendo games of the last 5 years. They'd definitely have some pretty big overlap, I'd think.

Not as severe as MGS3/MGS4 would be, of course.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/30/2009 9:36:58 PM | message detail
On a side note I find it extremely frustrating that my two upset Nintendo picks, Galaxy and Metroid Prime, were the only two Nintendo games to suck hard.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:37:03 PM | message detail
Ocarina never "begs for scraps." It dunks LttP and TP's heads in the toilet, steals their lunch money, and beats FFVII in a 1v1 the next day.

TP may be crushed, but LttP will hold out, many people from the Zelda fanbase consider it a much better game than OoT.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:37:13 PM | message detail
I don't think that's necessarily a point in MGS3's favor - it was up against two games with godawful board votes in WoW and Oblivion. But it is true that both RE4 and MGS3's best hours last round was the Power Hour, so I guess that's a wash.

Whichever game is leading at 6:00 AM wins, I think, because neither of these games are going to make a comeback in the day.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:37:25 PM | message detail
Heh, I'd laugh if TP somehow made it to the finals with OoT.

LTTP/FFVII/OoT/TP

Which one of these does not belong?


FFVII breaks 50%, book it. If there's ever a match that can convince this site to get angry at Nintendo/Zelda for always winning like it hates FFVII....that would be it.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/30/2009 9:37:49 PM | message detail
Well, looks like TP could beat down RE4 a lot worse this round. If this match got 120000 votes and if TP ended at 33% and RE4 ends at 25%, then TP beats RE4 by 9600 votes. Last round, TP only won by 1750 votes. That is definitely well outside the range of random variation. I think RE4 is doing bad because of Mature game LFF. RE4 is a Mature game being hurt by MGS3 and Oblivion, also Mature games. TP is the only game that isn't rated Mature.
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transience | Posted 5/30/2009 9:38:22 PM | message detail
RE4 doesn't need to make a comeback if it's up against MGS in the day. it wins by default.
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xyzzy
FFDragon | Posted 5/30/2009 9:38:23 PM | message detail
TFTL
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:38:28 PM | message detail
Well, looks like TP could beat down RE4 a lot worse this round.

Could?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
transience | Posted 5/30/2009 9:39:01 PM | message detail
er, if it's tied or even behind by a little. MGS is just terrible; RE4 lost like 200 votes to KH2.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 9:39:02 PM | message detail
Whichever game is leading at 6:00 AM wins, I think, because neither of these games are going to make a comeback in the day.

I'm not so sure about that. You put MGS3 in RE4's spot last round, and I think it completely blows that 1900 vote lead en route to a loss.

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/30/2009 9:39:34 PM | message detail
FFDragon | Posted 5/31/2009 12:38:23 AM | message detail
TFTL


What does that mean?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:39:45 PM | message detail
Yep, and you know how Snake held Cloud off with the ASV last year? Looking at FFVII/CT, I think the reason that happened is now clear!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:39:57 PM | message detail
RE4 lost like 200 votes to KH2.

1200 last time.

Granted, the first time was on a weekend where it stalled KHII all day, but KH's day vote is really weird on the weekends.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:40:30 PM | message detail
what in the--
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ZFS | Posted 5/30/2009 9:40:32 PM | message detail
CQC'd

aw yeah MGS3

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transience | Posted 5/30/2009 9:40:40 PM | message detail
what tha

yeah, I was talking about round 1.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:40:43 PM | message detail
One thing I know is that TP will be brought down to Earth by morning.

Also wtf at MGS3...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 243/352
paulg235 | Posted 5/30/2009 9:40:44 PM | message detail
Here we go.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/30/2009 9:41:03 PM | message detail
the LA-LI-LU-LE-LO
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/30/2009 9:41:14 PM | message detail
...Uhhh?
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Demyx is better than Axel.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 9:41:16 PM | message detail
uhh what
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 9:41:30 PM | message detail
That was all RE4 dropping off there. MGS3 stayed pretty stable.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."