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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 734

paulg235 | Posted 5/29/2009 9:05:30 PM | message detail
I'm feeling mighty confident on FFX making the final, now.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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The Gamer In Me
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/29/2009 9:15:29 PM | message detail
This is my story, and you're not part of it.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/29/2009 9:20:19 PM | message detail
Even though it's getting blown out?
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 5:34:47 PM | message detail
I should quickly learn basics of photoshop and submit a FFX2 pic for FFX and see if it gets accepted
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 5:35:43 PM | message detail
Because people don't associate Brawl with a horrible sequel that was a disgrace to its predecessor.

Darn right
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 5:35:51 PM | message detail
These later stages of the contests are killing me. For every win that RBY or Melee or whatever gets, it's at the expense of MGS or KH or some other game I love.

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ZFS | Posted 5/30/2009 5:36:05 PM | message detail
These FFX pics have a severe lack of Auron.

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/30/2009 5:36:29 PM | message detail
From the last thread, by Leon:

"You must know some awfully feminine guys then."

Nah, it's just that the water effects make Yuna's muscles seem more toned than they really are.

Moving to another topic, an X-2 pic would be disasterrific. 'Nuff said.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 5:37:00 PM | message detail
These later stages of the contests are killing me. For every win that RBY or Melee or whatever gets, it's at the expense of MGS or KH or some other game I love.

Welcome to the world of liking games that aren't Nintendo!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 5:37:18 PM | message detail
These FFX pics have a severe lack of Auron.

New pic idea!

*goes to make*

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 5:38:36 PM | message detail
Tidus/Yuna > Auron
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
ZFS | Posted 5/30/2009 5:39:06 PM | message detail
Tidus/Yuna > Auron

Not on GameFAQs!

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 5:39:49 PM | message detail
Tidus > Auron > Yuna

Love 'em all though. All top 25 characters for me.

http://www.iphonewallpapersfree.com/wallpapers/FinalFantasy-63.jpg

Here's a pic of FFX I've always really liked.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 5:41:03 PM | message detail
http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/6902/rikku2rk2.png

rikku > all of those posers
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg
ZFS | Posted 5/30/2009 5:41:36 PM | message detail
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b220/Kasumi_K/Final%20Fantasy%20Series/CoolAuron.jpg

tha best

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 5:41:47 PM | message detail
Disasteriffic opinions up in this topic
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/30/2009 5:45:16 PM | message detail
I'm kinda hoping for someone submitting a Kimahri pic, just because I KNOW Bacon would take it. The board explosion would be epic.
AmazingKirby | Posted 5/30/2009 5:46:41 PM | message detail
http://www.freewebs.com/rikkusthebest/rikku%20age%2015.jpg

Clearly, that needs to be used.

Or Asian Rikku.

http://i234.photobucket.com/albums/ee270/siberian192/Rikku.jpg
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caps
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 5:49:25 PM | message detail
The FMV sequences in FFX always weirded me out a bit. Everyone suddenly looked 300% more asian.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 5:55:20 PM | message detail
I want to be the very best
like no one ever was
To crush them all is my real test
to enslave them is my cause

I will travel across the land
searching far and wide
each Square game to pulverize
and make all its fans cry

NINTENDO!
It's you and me
I know it's my destiny
NINTENDO!
Oh, you're my master
in a world we must oppress

NINTENDO!
Our hearts so dark
Our evil will pull us through
You teach me and I'll teach you
NINTENDO!
Gotta crush 'em all, gotta crush 'em all!
Yeah
Gotta crush 'em all!

Every hero along the way
Every swordsman and mage
I will battle every day
To claim my rightful place
Come with me, the time is right
We'll beat even Cloud
And throw down Midgar itself
It's always been our dream

Gotta crush 'em all!

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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 5:57:22 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #019
The FMV sequences in FFX always weirded me out a bit. Everyone suddenly looked 300% more asian.


it was like this for FF8 too. I remember Rinoa suddenly looked totally asian
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg
creativename | Posted 5/30/2009 6:20:45 PM | message detail
Checking out the graph, looks like Kingdom Hearts has a better day vote than Melee. Melee might be able to match its ASV and is better in the morning, but the KH ASV/second night vote combination is unmatched (except maybe by Halo).

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b220/Kasumi_K/Final%20Fantasy%20Series/CoolAuron.jpg

That's pretty sweet.

All FFX pics should definitely be Auron-centric! Unless you hate FFX and want it to lose!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 6:28:35 PM | message detail
Rinoa always looked Asian.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 6:30:57 PM | message detail
http://www.daughteroflight.com/Random/FF8/rinoa_hair.jpg

vs.

http://www.selphies-world.de/images/ff8rinoa.jpg
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 6:31:58 PM | message detail
Asian vs. Asian. What's your point?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 6:32:49 PM | message detail
second doesnt look any more asian then most anime to me
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 6:33:21 PM | message detail
Finally broke down and did a silly pic.

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/5980/r4pokemonrby2.png



Now that you've all finished groaning, I'm not actually submitting it. I just wanted an excuse to use that Auron pic HM posted somewhere.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 6:34:22 PM | message detail
I wonder if Bacon would even use a pic with a curse word on it. Not that it's a banned word or anything, but still.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
charmander6000 | Posted 5/30/2009 6:34:26 PM | message detail
Aren't most characters from jRPG shown as Asian?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/30/2009 6:35:04 PM | message detail
he used a pic promoting kids smoking
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 6:35:34 PM | message detail
He promoted Snake smoking.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ZFS | Posted 5/30/2009 6:51:19 PM | message detail
Rinoa looks the same in both of those pics.

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif
RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/30/2009 6:57:10 PM | message detail
Now that you've all finished groaning, I'm not actually submitting it.

NOOOO! You have to submit it!
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/30/2009 7:00:21 PM | message detail
Pretty sure I would get lynched if I did.

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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/30/2009 7:09:53 PM | message detail
Are you kidding? That pic lives up to its name. You've got the coolest starter pokémon, the King of Evil, a Samurai/Ronin, and the FALCON PAWNCH! It NEEDS to make it.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/30/2009 7:12:11 PM | message detail
This is how Rinoa really looks like:
http://www.cinematreadwell.com/doral/theweather.html
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 7:12:51 PM | message detail
You've got the coolest starter pokémon

Squirtle.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/30/2009 7:15:41 PM | message detail
Yknow, all the water starters are awesome.

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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/30/2009 7:22:58 PM | message detail
The problem is that theres so many water type pokemon out there that it dilutes the water starters popularity. I for one certainly didn't take squirtle, tododile, mudkip. Piplup was the only exception in my case.

Grass types are also very adundant, but most of them have a 2nd type (usually poison unfortunately). Chikorita was a favorite as it was one of the few "good" pure grass types with no 2nd type.

There's not many fire types out there so thats why fire types tend to be popular, and Charizard is certainly no exception.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/30/2009 7:27:12 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 5/30/2009 9:34:22 PM | #028
I wonder if Bacon would even use a pic with a curse word on it. Not that it's a banned word or anything, but still.


"Ass" is a curse word now?
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/30/2009 7:28:21 PM | message detail
Plus, MAKING it to Charizard meant you were hardcore. You had Brock, Misty, AND Surge (I think) to slog through with a pokémon that couldn't do jack to them and had to survive very nasty hits. Squirtle was practically easy mode, and so was Bulbasaur. Charmander, meanwhile, meant lots of effort just to keep up...and you got an awesome reward in the form a firebreathing dragon.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2009 7:32:50 PM | message detail
I wasn't aware that it ever wasn't.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
charmander6000 | Posted 5/30/2009 7:37:04 PM | message detail
Match LV: Metal Gear Solid 3 vs. TES IV: Oblivion vs. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Resident Evil 4

Last Round:

Metal Gear Solid 3 – 31.67%
TES IV: Oblivion – 24.88%
World of Warcraft – 22.75%
Tales of Symphonia – 20.70%

LoZ: Twilight Princess – 28.47%
Resident Evil 4 – 27.00%
Kingdom Hearts II – 26.28%
Half-Life 2 – 18.25%

Analysis

When a weak half and a strong half meet. Like the beginning of the round the two strongest games of the division come from the same half of the division. I guess it was for the best since I’d rather have two interesting matches in round 2 than only one interesting match in round 3. Not much will be learned from this match other than the difference in strengths between the two divisions.

Metal Gear Solid 3 may have been the dominant game for its eight-pack, but it is about to receive a reality check. If it was in the other match last round I’d be positive that it would be closer to Half-Life 2 than Kingdom Hearts II. The game won’t be flattened, but it will never be in contention at any point in the match.

Oblivion made it further than what many people expected so I guess that’s a big plus, but that accomplishment isn’t going to stop it from getting crushed. The eight-pack may have been closely ranked, however it was weak. With a Nintendo and Square dominant top half it is refreshing to see other games from other companies and series present at this round.

Twilight Princess was able to squeeze its way into first last round and seeing nothing that will drag it down it should be able to take first again. Next round it has a big match with Brawl to see which game is the strongest new Nintendo game. Its performance against Metal Gear Solid 3 will give us some insight to how that match will go next round.

I don’t see how Resident Evil 4 can work these two opponents better than the last round opponents so that it can defeat Twilight Princess. The game only lost by 1750 votes so it doesn’t exactly need a reason to defeat Twilight Princess this round because random variation could work at its favour. Of course Twilight Princess could have also underperformed last round.

Resident Evil 4 winning wouldn’t surprise me, but Twilight Princess is much more likely to win. It’ll be weird since the match will be close, but we all know what the end result will be. Good thing this is a weekend match so that the trends will be a bit different.

charmander6000’s Bracket: LoZ: Twilight Princess > Resident Evil 4

charmander6000’s Prediction: LoZ: Twilight Princess – 32.27%, Resident Evil 4 – 30.83%, Metal Gear Solid 3 – 20.57%, TES IV: Oblivion – 16.33%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336
AmazingKirby | Posted 5/30/2009 7:41:53 PM | message detail
Oops, I guess it's not good that I have MGS3 placing 2nd in the finals. Don't know what I was thinking.
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caps
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/30/2009 7:42:12 PM | message detail
Uhh, Chikorita wasnt very good even when it came out mate <_<

It was a defensive pokemon with pretty eh defenses.
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/30/2009 7:49:29 PM | message detail
Chikorita had the disadvantage of being not very effective against most gym pokemon in Johto. Also the only Pokemon she was super effective against was Poliwrath iirc.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/30/2009 7:51:23 PM | message detail
man, If you had The Zard by the time you meet Chu's Raichu, you'd be 1-2 shotting everything.
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/30/2009 8:07:53 PM | message detail
Yeah so in a sense, Chikorita had a similar uphill battle to deal with like Charmander had back in RBY.

While its true Chikorita was more defensive than offensive doesn't mean its bad, heck the minute you get it all the way to a Meganium, you can teach it Earthquake to give your rivals Typhlosion a nasty surprise.

Anyway as for this match, Zelda seems to be a safe bet for first, though we've seen RE4 put up quite a fight, but with MGS3 in the same match, it could sap some votes from it.

Oblivion is pretty much a surefire for last here even though it did quite well in the previous rounds.

The main question for this round is, will MG3's presence hurt RE4 enough for it to steal 2nd, or can Leon pick off the sneaking snake in the grass?
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/30/2009 8:16:11 PM | message detail
I've asked this question many times before and haven't gotten a response.

Do I get to be the Analysis Crew's guest for Brawl's match?
paulg235 | Posted 5/30/2009 8:16:29 PM | message detail
We underestimated Oblivion twice. I, for one, think this match will show that the top half of the division wasn't as weak as you thought, especially when it comes close and you're all rallying for Big Bad Boss.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158