GameFAQs Contests

Ouch Melee is already down 2% from its peak.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336

Bandwagons have little to do with this board- we're not the ones who pushed L-Block out to an 800 vote lead on Link in 5 minutes. We're not the ones who gave Snake a bigger win over Cloud after taking Sephiroth out of the poll, and we're not the ones who made a game equal to Halo equal to SSBM.

A key aspect of a bandwagon is that it must be apparent to a good majority (at least half of the site's users) of the site that the underdog has a shot to compete with the obvious winner. Such as when Snake defeated Cloud in the semifinals, which convinced the site that Snake could compete with Link for first place. Which is why Snake got bandwagoned in the finals. RBY has a much harder path to the finals, because it needs to get past round 4 and round 5. RBY defeating MGS isn't all of a sudden going to convince a majority of this site that it has a shot to knock out Melee next round. This is why I'm thinking there will be no RBY bandwagon next round.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

L-Block actually lost to Snake in round 3, you know. There may or may not be an RBY bandwagon- but it has a very real chance of doing it. I'm not sure it even needs it to beat FFX, and if it beats FFX, the chance of a bandwagon forming are pretty high.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I just gotta say that the first three pics for this match are spectacular, honestly. They're probably the best I've seen all contest.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

wow, it me or would ffx cream melee 1 vs 1 this time > >?
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.

Is pretty high, that is.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Kirby and pichachu had some bandwagon going, but it didn't carry them to the finals. Kirby was leading in the semi final round for about... 30 minutes I think.

Yeah, bandwagons don't automatically equal wins, obviously. They do result in obvious overperformances, however.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

L-Block actually lost to Snake in round 3, you know.

L-Block was a somewhat different exception here, because it was a joke character.

I'm not sure it even needs it to beat FFX, and if it beats FFX, the chance of a bandwagon forming are pretty high.

OoT probably gets first place next round, so it would have to be Melee that RBY would need to defeat in order for a bandwagon to be formed. FFX would be doomed for last place if RBY gets a massive starting push in the next match and built up a large enough lead to survive FFX's comeback. So even if RBY defeated FFX while losing to Melee and OoT, then it's all over to RBY since it doesn't advance to the semifinals.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

The difference is RBY is relatively way stronger than Kirby.....Kirby leading Cloud at all is pretty incredible.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Kirby and pichachu had some bandwagon going, but it didn't carry them to the finals. Kirby was leading in the semi final round for about... 30 minutes I think.

Kirby was leading Cloud for one hour, although it was Snake that stayed in first for the whole match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

I did enjoy seeing him put up like 36% against cloud and snake.

Kirby and pichachu had some bandwagon going, but it didn't carry them to the finals.

Pikachu did what the board wanted it to do in round 3 and when it advanced, Pikachu was totally overshadowed by the Crono/Vincent rematch which is why it couldn't really be bandwagoned.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

In order for RBY to bandwagon, it would need to pull off a hugely shocking win (like Sonic/Kirby or Snake/Cloud 1 last year). Victories against the likes of MGS and FFX, while impressive, won't shock the casuals into thinking it all of a sudden has a shot against titans like FF7 and OOT.
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Seriously owned by FastFalcon in the Guru Contest. Congrats!

So uh yeah i missed the beginning of the match and the oracles you guys have for this match .. So is FFX doing poorly here?

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII

Uh....FFX will probably beat Melee next round. Melee could place, but FFX and RBY both have better chances of doing so.

Also, I just checked, and if the rest of the contest goes as follows....

TP > RE4
Brawl > MGS4

Zelda 1 > SMB3
FFVII > LTTP
OOT > RBY
RE4 > MGS4

FFVII > LTTP
OOT > RBY

FFVII > RBY

I would win the Guru Contest.

That's 9 matches, 2 of which are pretty clear cut. OOT > RBY in the semis seems inevitable if OOT > RBY happens in the quarterfinals, so that's 6 matches that have to go my way.....not bad at all considering one of my finalists lost in round 2!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

(like Sonic/Kirby or Snake/Cloud 1 last year).

It was Sonic/Kirby that got Kirby a bandwagon next round. And you are referring to Snake/Cloud 2 here, since in Snake/Cloud 1, the result was Cloud > Snake.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Yesterday's chart:

Time | MGS | R/B/Y | LOZ: OOT | FFVIII | Demographic
EBV | 21.73% | 25.41% | 37.94% | 14.92% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 21.47% | 23.91% | 39.12% | 15.50% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 23.18% | 21.82% | 36.31% | 18.69% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 21.33% | 21.87% | 37.52% | 19.28% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 21.44% | 21.13% | 39.02% | 18.40% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 19.13% | 24.13% | 40.04% | 16.70% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 19.45% | 23.08% | 39.80% | 17.66% | (22:00-24:00)

OoT gets a nice Power Hour but a bad night vote and not much better in the morning. It rose a good bit for the rest of the match though. RBY with a great board vote and Power Hour. It basically leveled off until the ASV from there. MGS had a good night vote, but the bad day vote cost it the match, obviously. FFVIII had an awful board vote and Power Hour, but a great night vote, morning vote, and DSV. Dropped back off with the ASV though.

Yesterday's stats:

Ocarina of Time – 50.00%
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow – 36.90%
Metal Gear Solid – 35.11%
Final Fantasy VIII – 31.41%

Division Stats

Ocarina of Time – 50.00%
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow (Round 1) – 37.88%
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow (Round 3) – 36.90%
Metal Gear Solid – 35.11%
Pokemon Gold/Silver (Round 1) – 32.57%
Final Fantasy VIII (Round 3) – 31.41%
Final Fantasy VIII (Round 1) – 30.82%
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow (Round 2) – 30.81%
Final Fantasy VIII (Round 2) – 29.95%
Final Fantasy IX (Round 1) – 28.40%
Majora’s Mask – 27.49%
Final Fantasy Tactics – 26.57%
Pokemon Gold/Silver (Round 2) – 25.33%
StarCraft – 25.20%
Half-Life – 21.30%
Final Fantasy IX (Round 2) – 20.73%
Chrono Cross – 16.10%
SoulCalibur – 16.01%
Perfect Dark – 14.22%
Xenogears – 13.91%
Deus Ex – 11.97%
Banjo-Kazooie – 11.15%
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

FF8's R3 performance puts it higher than its R1 performance? Wouldn't have expected that.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

By the way, assuming FFVII and OoT are equal, this is what the stats look like:

Final Fantasy VII – 50.00%
Ocarina of Time – 50.00%
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow (Round 1) – 37.88%
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow (Round 3) – 36.90%
Super Mario 64 – 35.38%
Metal Gear Solid – 35.11%
Chrono Trigger (Round 3) – 34.35%
Chrono Trigger (Round 2) – 34.10%
GoldenEye 007 (Round 2) – 33.03%
Pokemon Gold/Silver (Round 1) – 32.57%
Final Fantasy VIII (Round 3) – 31.41%
Super Mario RPG (Round 1) – 30.94%
Final Fantasy VIII (Round 1) – 30.82%
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow (Round 2) – 30.81%
Mario Kart 64 (Round 1) – 29.98%
Final Fantasy VIII (Round 2) – 29.95%
Final Fantasy IX (Round 1) – 28.40%
Majora’s Mask – 27.49%
Final Fantasy Tactics – 26.57%
Super Mario RPG (Round 2) – 26.48%
GoldenEye (Round 3) – 26.13%
Resident Evil 2 – 25.81%
Pokemon Gold/Silver (Round 2) – 25.33%
StarCraft – 25.20%
Symphony of the Night (Round 1) – 23.72%
Resident Evil – 22.07%
Half-Life – 21.30%
Star Fox 64 – 20.86%
Final Fantasy IX (Round 2) – 20.73%
Mario Kart 64 (Round 2) – 20.70%
Yoshi’s Island (Round 1) – 20.25%
Symphony of the Night (Round 2) – 18.84%
Chrono Cross – 16.10%
SoulCalibur – 16.01%
Earthbound – 14.79%
Perfect Dark – 14.22%
Xenogears – 13.91%
Kirby Super Star – 13.85%
Donkey Kong Country 2 – 13.50%
Deus Ex – 11.97%
Banjo-Kazooie – 11.15%
Suikoden – 11.10%
Yoshi’s Island (Round 2) – 10.86%
Lufia II – 4.76%

What do you think?
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

FF8's R3 performance puts it higher than its R1 performance? Wouldn't have expected that.

I guess Xenogears did bother it a little bit then.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Super Mario RPG (Round 1) – 30.94%
Final Fantasy VIII (Round 1) – 30.82%

aww yeah
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg

Also, who bites on G/S > FFVIII pre-contest?
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Considering I was talking up RBY>FF8 as some big upset possibility pre-contest, and even I thought I was kind of crazy...no one!

Man, forget FFIX>Starcraft if you switch it and FF8. Switch FF8 and FFT and watch everyone explode that day.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Worst contest ever.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

So basically what is happening here.

Is FFX doing worse than expected or is it standing up well?
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

I seriously considered taking RBY over FFVI in a hypothetical matchup before the bracket was released, and had decided already to take it over Brawl. I don't think I would have pulled the trigger on RBY > FFVI, but as I thought FFVI was stronger than FFVIII back then (maybe it is, actually), I might have taken it over FFVIII. I certainly wouldn't have taken GS though- I wrongly thought GS was way way way below RBY.

I'd blame the board for stopping me from listening to my instincts and taking RBY far, but I usually criticize that (since the board consensus typically outperforms most individual brackets of board members, and absolutely slaughters casuals), so I guess I have only myself to blame.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I'd love to see MGS3 somehow advance tomorrow. It shouldn't get killed at least, I don't think.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I think it's got a pretty plausible shot.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

MGS3 advancing would pretty much have to be at RE4's expense and that would make me sad

MGS3 and RE4 advancing I have no problem with though!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Diablo cut!
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Man, I came home expecting some kind of crazy result and much to my dismay the match is going exactly as planned.

How boring!
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

10 people fell off the Top 50. menji76, VolantPieMan, Gigaduckman, yosupdawg2008, funkyspunkymonk, mr_fettuccine, krjtgb, KadenceInc, syco_coaster and BesaidGuy did not have LoZ:OoT > Pokemon RBY as yesterday's winners.

34 people scored half points and lived. Jufes, Vivi_XIII, stu300189, Mac_Arrowny, goldeliteking, theawesomestevr, realseniorleach, Scott_Pilgrim, _gloomy, Yesmar88, JayLabPrime, M_e_g_a_6_4, octoblinky, xXWarchiefXx, XxSoulxX2, Ludwig_Von_6, Arc_Angel2790, Mirrorzzz, Tos_forever, MajorMitch, a_doyle_42, kaonashi1, VincentLauw, ZenOfThunder, fox813, Aecioo, EvilDave219, JimmyBo1515, Ultimaphazon, FF_Tactics, turbopuns, xcamel24, Raistlin_X and Superfreak8 also did not have LoZ:OoT > Pokemon RBY as yesterday's winners.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...

FFX cut!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Apparently Chrono Trigger HAS dropped after all. It lost to Super Mario 64 - kinda like Magus-Knuckles. Unfortunately for it, CT was the Magus. And to think that I wasn't taken seriously when I compared CT's round 1 performance to Altair's, saying that it isn't hard to look good when your competition is just that weak... Though to be fair, we DID have data on CT, though it was ancient.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

I think it's got a pretty plausible shot.

I just don't see it happening. It let Oblivion, WoW, Halo 2, and ToS get too close (although it got 60% or so on all of them, which is good). RE4 and TP got 60% on Half-Life 2, which I'd take over all of those games easily. I just don't think MGS3 is in their league. It'd probably get 45% or so on them, but it won't be in contention. You'd almost have to consider MGS3 for strongest game in the series if it wins tomorrow, which would be awesome, but not likely.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

FFX and Diablo rising, SSBM plummeting, as expected. FFX at 44% on Melee now.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

This is more a general comment than anything else, but I think it's a bit maddening the way the topic collectively decides when SFF applies and when it doesn't. Pokemon RBY is 100% a Nintendo game; I can't believe the number of times it's been dropped that its fanbase is somehow independent from the rest of Nintendo's fanbase. RBY didn't hold up because the people that played it somehow didn't care about Ocarina because they hadn't heard of it before or were somehow more independent from it since they played RBY on the gameboy (a Nintendo device) and not Ocarina on the 64. It might have more rabid fans, but that's far different from it being an independent fanbase. Sometimes I think we forget that voters are people just like us who likely own multiple consoles with multiple games from multiple companies. It's not like they view each match as a system vs system debate or as a company vs company battle.


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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983-4640-3352 Brawl Code

Man, I'd forgotten how beastly FFX's night vote (and/or how abysmal SSBM's night vote) is. In the past hour, SSBM has increased its lead by 3 votes.
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.

I hope FFX doesn't collapse too badly in the day (misplaced hope, perhaps), because this is a pretty fine performance so far. It should peak at well over 46%. Man, replace Kingdom Hearts with Prime, and we really could have had ourselves a fight!
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

FFX has cut off about 100 votes from SSBM's highest lead so far. Good thing this is a weekend match, because SSBM will stop FFX once morning comes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

FACT or FICTION: FFX cuts OoT at least once next round.
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.

Definitely. RBY managed it and I think MGS pretty much almost tied it at least in an update
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

for a match that seems like it could have been volatile, this is really predictable. I see a lot of comments about FFX sucking it up -- huh? what were you expecting? Melee always has a ridiculous board vote and an awful night vote, get used to this fact or you'll think it's going to beat OOT.

actually, next round should be really weird with three games that are awesome early and awful overnight. FFX could be in last after an hour and come in second easily.

as for this RBY over OOT in the finals talk, where the hell is the evidence that it's bandwagoning? it hasn't really done any better from round 1 to round 3. is RBY winning last round that surprising?

one thing I'll say in that direction, something that's completely unproven, is that RBY seems like it has a voter floor. I bet it would do unusually well in a poll with very strong games just because those Pokemon freaks will back it to the end. FFX probably doesn't have that luxury. it does have a built in "only Square game left" thing going on though that's probably stronger than that. FFX/SSBM/RBY is probably our new biggest match of the contest.
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xyzzy

OK, just got back from the city. So tired. Didn't start driving back until 4am and then my friends say the stupid Holland Tunnel is closed, but the radio said Lincoln Tunnel had 1 hour backup so I had to take the GW, agh.

FFX looking OK here, should finish about 45% on Melee. Not bad with KH in the poll, although it looks like Melee is still a slight bit stronger than FFX neutrally.

KH should do pretty much as expected by the end. 22%-23%.

Oh wow Diablo. The hell happened to you?? This is terrible.

Next round - I have little clue what happens with Melee/FFX/RBY. On first thought I'd peg Melee as the favorite, with FFX and RBY about equal, maybe slight edge to FFX. So like...40%/31%/29% odds, Melee/FFX/RBY.

But then I saw that Melee had Wind Waker last match - could that explain Diablo? Did WW leech Melee...? I would've thought Melee to be among the least likely Nintendo games to get leeched - not to mention that I'd consider freakin' Wind Waker to be among the least likely to do said leeching! So I'm not sure if that's actually the case. But if it is...Melee could be in some trouble. Just a teeny little jump from Wind Waker to Ocarina of Time, IMO :)

So overall, that match is looking like a crapshoot. I don't know if it ends up that close - whoever wins probably does so with a cushion. But I don't know who wins between Melee/FFX/RBY, especially because RBY has the bandwagoning edge.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Wind Waker might hurt it more just on the basis that those are the two Nintendo Gamecube games. I dunno what to think next round, but I'll say that SSBM for last is a high possibility.
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xyzzy

jesus,was Diablo's first round 4pack WEAK!
it might have been a somewhat exciting close match,but it gets put to shame so easily it's amazing.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455

FFX could be in last after an hour and come in second easily.

FFX being in last after an hour might even be likely.

as for this RBY over OOT in the finals talk, where the hell is the evidence that it's bandwagoning? it hasn't really done any better from round 1 to round 3. is RBY winning last round that surprising?

Massive board vote favoritism and joke trends can be foreshadowing of some sort of bandwagoning. Not that it will necessarily form, but they are an indicator.

Wind Waker might hurt it more just on the basis that those are the two Nintendo Gamecube games. I dunno what to think next round, but I'll say that SSBM for last is a high possibility.

Hmm...I guess maybe Wind Waker could hurt it more in a relative sense. But I can't imagine Wind Waker hurting Melee more in a raw sense (which is what really matters) than OoT.

Pretty much any of those 3 games getting last is a high possibility. I do agree that because of the potential of Ocarina hurting it, Melee has the widest range. It could get 2nd, or flop. The other two's ranges are actually pretty narrow I think. It's just that neutrally, Melee is probably the strongest game.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Massive board vote favoritism and joke trends can be foreshadowing of some sort of bandwagoning. Not that it will necessarily form, but they are an indicator.

Melee has this too. actually, their trends are almost identical. but I don't see anyone talking about a Melee bandwagon - the only difference there is that we're accustomed to Melee being a top 10 game whereas RBY is something most of us didn't consider, so we feel better writing it off to a bandwagon. I mean, the game put up 50%+ in round 1. that's not a bandwagon, that's strength.
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xyzzy

I mean, the game put up 50%+ in round 1. that's not a bandwagon, that's strength.
This
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.