GameFAQs Contests

FFX under 42% against Melee. Liking...44% by the end of the match, which puts it at a disadvantage come next round.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

FF7/LTTP/RBY/OoT here we come
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Demyx is better than Axel.

From: MegatokyoEd | #302
FF7/LTTP/RBY/OoT here we come

FF7 > RBY
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg

*Notices KH breaking 20%*

Anyway, I was right about Ocarina getting less than half of the brackets' first place in this round.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158

FF7 > RBY

FFVII has always choked in the finals

RBY > OoT
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336

It did 4% worse against MGS2 with KH in the poll so I guess you can add 4% to whatever it gets here
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Melee seeming to calm down, unless these have just been oddities.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

Just got home to NH from NYC, so here's some commentary/analysis:

RBY surprised me by placing- I guess OOT/RBY LFF really is minimal compared to RBY/GS LFF. MGS is beating FFVIII pretty good, which really doesn't surprise me very much. Before the contest, I'm not sure which game I'd have gone with there. I have Starcraft placing here, and placing in the final, so I thought my bracket was dead as of last round, but RBY's victory here breathes a little life back into it. RBY just needs to beat FFX next round, get bandwagoned, and use bandwagoning + LFF to beat OOT in the final. Not very likely, but much better than before.

CT managed to avoid getting embarassed yesterday by doing a little bit better against Mario 64 than last round. That would be very embarassing anyway, if Mario 64 were well below Mario 3 as we thought. But Mario World is right with Mario 3 now, and Mario 64 could easily be right next to it too, or even stronger possibly. CT putting up 49% on Mario 3 after 5 years really wouldn't be embarassing- it fell much more than that (look at FFVI), but CTDS boosted it most of the way back. And remember, in 2004 Crono beat Mario worse than CT beat SMB3, so if Mario 64 is the strongest Mario game, or right beneath it, Mario/Crono could still be a good battle this fall, especially as the Deboost seems not to be a fundamental demographic shift but rather backlash at Nintendo's recent failures, and affected characters but not older Nintendo games.

Of course, LTTP could crush Mario 64 next round and put an end to that line of thought- but Mario 64 could also win. We shall see- right now I'd guess LTTP/SM64/CT/SMB3/SMW/RBY are all pretty close to each other- call them our "Tier 2."

Let's take a look at how the rest of the contest might go....

SSBM > FFX
TP > RE4
Brawl > MGS4

Those 3 look pretty clear.

Zelda > SMB3

This is probably the most likely result, but Zelda 1, Mario 3, and Mario World could easily come in any order in the top 3.

FFVII > LTTP

Mario World has a chance, but LTTP should be the favorite. LTTP > Any Mario game used to seem intuitively obvious to me, but my common sense has already completely failed in this area (SMB beating Zelda 1 and SMW coming very close to SMB3), so who knows.

OOT > RBY

I think RBY begins to get bandwagoned next round. FFX is a tough hurdle to clear, but RBY is getting 56% on FFVIII here, and FFX shouldn't be too much stronger (indeed, it let KH get way too close to it). Replacing MGS with Melee hurts too, of course, but RBY is already showing today that it doesn't overlap too much with mainstream Nintendo. Without bandwagoning, FFX probably takes it.....but round 4 is when bandwagoning really gets going, and there's no game more likely than RBY to be bandwagoned at this point.

RE4 > MGS4

I think these 2 advance, but am not at all sure about the order.

FFVII > LTTP

Mario 3/SMW also has a good chance. If Mario 64 is here instead of LTTP, it has a very good chance of getting to the finals.

OOT > RBY

Whichever game comes out of RBY/Melee/FFX with OOT places here.

FFVII > RBY

Bandwagoning and LFF causes the 2nd strongest game to fail to place for the third year in a row.

Now, if all that happens.....I think I win the guru contest. If Mario 64 instead of LTTP makes the finals, I think I still win the guru. Very unlikely, yes, but I think I have a higher probability of winning the Guru now than I did at the beginning of the contest, which is pretty shocking considering how many mistakes I've made!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Melee is screwed next round if Wind Waker did that much damage think what Ocarina of Time will do.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336

FF7 > RBY

FFVII has always choked in the finals

RBY > OoT

Return of the SMW:YI helped SM64 theory, now updated with LttP and OoT:

OoT > RBY
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

FFX doing a better now, just can't be droppin' like crazy at the start.

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

Return of the SMW:YI helped SM64 theory, now updated with LttP and OoT:

OoT > RBY

You're funny if you think LttP will get under 10% in the finals, it has its own fanbase.

RBY > OoT
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336

FFX under 42% against Melee. Liking...44% by the end of the match, which puts it at a disadvantage come next round.

FFX will rise against Melee a good bit with the night vote. It should finish above that unless it completely bombs the night vote.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Where FFX is at after the power hour is probably going to be about where it ends. It will gain a lot overnight, and Melee will get it back with the day.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

What do I have to do to indicate I'm joking? Serious question.

Because going FF7 > OoT just isn't fun.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

Melee is screwed next round if Wind Waker did that much damage think what Ocarina of Time will do.

We could say the same about RBY with LoZ:MM, and that didn't work like planned.

That said, I do think SSBM's screwed next round.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

How much do you think FFX can manage against three Nintendo options? I have a hard time thinking it loses to all three of them.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Notice how Kingdom Hearts is slowly rising in %?

Melee > Kingdom Hearts Confirmed.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158

What do I have to do to indicate I'm joking? Serious question.

You can't use dumb logic in joke posts.

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336

FF7/OOT have always had a less than 50% chance of being the top 2 in the final (look at the last 2 contests); it's just that we've never had any idea which game would be the one to get bandwagoned. The probability that one does form is and has always been high.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I don't know. Melee could resist OoT as well as RBY did. Or it could get SFFd. I think the first is more likely, but its hard to say.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Like I said in another topic, SSBM will get SFFed by OoT. Again, there's a big difference between consoles and handhelds.

N64 fans migrated to the Gamecube. OoT is more loved within the Nintendo fanbase, and has nostalgia as well. It should have no problem SFFing SSBM since the fanbase is the same. FFX and RBY remain independent, so either can finish in second.
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Good Times,
Great Memories

We could say the same about RBY with LoZ:MM, and that didn't work like planned.

Not really, RBY never had a round without MM before it met with OoT, we had no proof of SFF/LFF.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336

What do I have to do to indicate I'm joking? Serious question.

You can't use dumb logic in joke posts.

>_>

Right, but then how else do I say anything but FF7 > OoT then? Or maybe FF7 > RBY if you invoke bandwagoning with a LttP split?

Because anything else is insane.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

OOT > RBY

I think RBY begins to get bandwagoned next round. FFX is a tough hurdle to clear, but RBY is getting 56% on FFVIII here, and FFX shouldn't be too much stronger (indeed, it let KH get way too close to it). Replacing MGS with Melee hurts too, of course, but RBY is already showing today that it doesn't overlap too much with mainstream Nintendo. Without bandwagoning, FFX probably takes it.....but round 4 is when bandwagoning really gets going, and there's no game more likely than RBY to be bandwagoned at this point.

For RBY to have a shot here, the board would have to abandon Melee for RBY. A situation that might be difficult considering that this board loves Melee as much as it loves Pokemon.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

I just have a hard time seeing three Nintendo options combine for like 80% against FFX. Of course, just 20% for FFX probably won't be enough. I think it can manage 25% though.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Okay, FFX, more of that.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Melee died in that update.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336

Stop looking at companies/developers and start looking at the fanbases.
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

Awesome update alert

Need more of those

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

That's more normal.

And really, RBY is almost as independent as FFX in that match. Absolutely nothing so far has pointed to it being a 'Nintendo option'. Sonic had more overlap with the Mario games.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

What this board backs is mostly irrelevant. Bandwagons have little to do with this board- we're not the ones who pushed L-Block out to an 800 vote lead on Link in 5 minutes. We're not the ones who gave Snake a bigger win over Cloud after taking Sephiroth out of the poll, and we're not the ones who made a game equal to Halo equal to SSBM.

I think OOT probably looks pretty bad next round- at least one of RBY and Melee and possibly both will do very well in relation to it. 25% should give FFX 2nd place, but it probably doesn't get that (it's not going to end much higher than that today).
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

KH cut!! Mwahaha!
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caps

do I spy a KH cut
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg

I don't think we'll get a bandwagon this year, if only because there isn't going to be a favorite going into the finals, so people are more likely to support the fight between FFVII and OoT than to "make things interesting."
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

Uh, did Kingdom Hearts just take all of FFX's gain from the previous update?
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158

Stop looking at companies/developers and start looking at the fanbases.

When it's three Nintendo games against a Square game, you kinda have to look at the fanbases. There's only so low FFX goes in that match.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

From: LeonhartFour | #337
Stop looking at companies/developers and start looking at the fanbases.

When it's three Nintendo games against a Square game, you kinda have to look at the fanbases. There's only so low FFX goes in that match.

kinda like the FF4 match right

o wait
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg

RBY is quasi-Nintendo. At best. It's like calling Tetris a Nintendo game or something.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

When it's three Nintendo games against a Square game, you kinda have to look at the fanbases. There's only so low FFX goes in that match

I do believe that FFX has a great shot at finishing in second, but it's not because of the other three being Nintendo. Well, kind of. Like I said, OoT should SFF SSBM into the ground, but Pokemon will remain independent. Then it's between Pokemon and FFX. Whoever is stronger will take second.
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"Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

kinda like the FF4 match right

o wait

I wish people would stop making this comparison. I KNEW FFIV didn't have a shot of winning that match from the start, and I'm still saying this. Old Square and New Square, these things are not the same. FFIV still managed 20% in that poll anyway, so I'm half right on that point.

RBY is quasi-Nintendo. At best. It's like calling Tetris a Nintendo game or something.

Tetris acts more like a Nintendo game than RBY does, to be honest.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

kinda like the FF4 match right

Quick what happens in FFVII/FFX/CT/Zelda 1

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And I don't remember KH's board vote being this bad. It's really going up right now. KHII's was really bad, too, though.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Except unlike FF4, we know FFX is strong enough to take advantage. Honestly, FFX is already on their level so, OOT/RBY/Melee don't even have to split that much for FFX to win. It would take a huge bomb on its part to lose.
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Seriously owned by FastFalcon in the Guru Contest. Congrats!

From: ZFS | #342
kinda like the FF4 match right

Quick what happens in FFVII/FFX/CT/Zelda 1

FF7 > CT
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2009/04/scorpion_wb.jpg

Quick what happens in FFVII/FFX/CT/Zelda 1

I would pick FFVII > Zelda 1 there.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

I'm just saying. This isn't FFX vs. 3 Nintendo games. It's more like FFX vs. 2.3 Nintendo games.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

FFVII > Chrono Trigger.
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Good Times,
Great Memories

KH's board vote this round is bad, while last round it was good, because Square voters who want to make a difference defected to FFX this round.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

FFX will probably mount a small comeback/stall at night.

Melee/FFX 1v1 who wins?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > FFX Points: 227/336