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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 731

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 6:48:17 PM | message detail
I mean honestly, would you peg FF6 this year to get 47% on FFX?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 6:48:35 PM | message detail
Top 20 in no order:

FFVII
OoT
CT
Mario 3
Mario World
Mario 64
Melee
Brawl
LTTP
FFVI
FFVIII
FFX
Twilight Princess
Resident Evil 4
Metal Gear Solid
Metal Gear Solid 4
Kingdom Hearts
Kingdom Hearts II
RBY
GS

...Something like that.
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transients | Posted 5/28/2009 6:48:57 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy VI
Final Fantasy VII
Final Fantasy VII
Final Fantasy X
Kingdom Hearts
Kingdom Hearts 2
Chrono Trigger
Mario 1
Mario 3
Mario World
Mario 64
Super Smash Bros Melee
Super Smash Bros Brawl
Zelda OOT
Zelda LTTP
Zelda TP
Metal Gear Solid
Metal Gear Solid 4
Resident Evil 4
Pokemon RBY

zzz
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/28/2009 6:49:37 PM | message detail
FF7 so strong it gets listed twice
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transients | Posted 5/28/2009 6:50:10 PM | message detail
hmm.. maybe G/S over FF6.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 6:50:18 PM | message detail
Oh right, Mario 1. Hmmm...
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transients | Posted 5/28/2009 6:50:23 PM | message detail
damn you FF8 you're so bad I refuse to list you
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 6:51:11 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #302
Top 20 in no order:

FFVII
OoT
CT
Mario 3
Mario World
Mario 64
Melee
Brawl
LTTP
FFVI
FFVIII
FFX
Twilight Princess
Resident Evil 4
Metal Gear Solid
Metal Gear Solid 4
Kingdom Hearts
Kingdom Hearts II
RBY
GS

...Something like that.


GS, eh? Interesting pick, though we may never know how strong it truly is
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ZFS | Posted 5/28/2009 6:51:30 PM | message detail
FFVI seems a little sketchy for top 20 to me, but I'd agree with the both of your lists for the most part. Now the tough part would be ordering those 20 !

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vash_131 | Posted 5/28/2009 6:51:39 PM | message detail
Here's a better way -- what does everyone think the top 20 strongest games are this contest, given what we've seen up until this point?

Nintendo
OoT
Lttp
SMB3
SMW
SM64
SMB
SSBM
SSBB
RBY
TP
LA

Square
FF7
CT
FFX
FF8
FF6
KH

Others
RE4
MGS
MGS4


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Character Battle V (2006): 37th place
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/28/2009 6:52:01 PM | message detail
And yeah, trying to rank the top 20 games is probably a silly idea, just in case anyone tried. Like tran said, about 75% of them are all probably pretty close.

Needs tiers.

Final Fantasy VII
Ocarina of Time


Everything Else
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 6:52:31 PM | message detail
If GS can get 47% on MGS, it's worthy of consideration. I'd put it in a top 25 overall for sure. It's borderline top 20.
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transients | Posted 5/28/2009 6:52:40 PM | message detail
anyway, I think after those 20 and maybe 1 or 2 more, there's a pretty big gap. I don't even know where to go after G/S.. maybe Zelda 1? Link's Awakening? Fallout 3?
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 6:53:21 PM | message detail
Zelda 1 I'd put in a top 25 overall.
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ZFS | Posted 5/28/2009 6:54:02 PM | message detail
Well, I think the whole 'tossup' bit about the top 20 is being overstated -- it sounds like something you say when you just don't have an order you like, these games probably aren't that close together. There should be clear separation after certain points, I'd imagine. Like CT vs. GS isn't a tough match for me in the slightest.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 6:54:27 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 I would put as a borderline top 20 before its total flop last match. I was expecting it to be alot closer to MGS4
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transients | Posted 5/28/2009 6:54:39 PM | message detail
is CT vs. Metal Gear Solid?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/28/2009 6:54:46 PM | message detail
Like CT vs. GS isn't a tough match for me in the slightest.

I wonder why !!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 6:55:56 PM | message detail
Remember how Pokemon vs. Star Ocean wasn't a tough match for ya?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/28/2009 6:56:34 PM | message detail
This list is going to be so terrible.

1. Ocarina of Time
2. Final Fantasy VII
3. A Link to the Past
4. Super Mario Bros. 3
5. Super Mario World
6. Melee
7. Super Mario 64
8. Chrono Trigger
9. Final Fantasy X
10. Red/Blue/Yellow
11. Brawl
12. Twilight Princess
13. Final Fantasy VIII
14. Kingdom Hearts
15. Resident Evil 4
16. Kingdom Hearts II
17. Final Fantasy VI
18. Super Mario Bros.
19. Metal Gear Solid
20. GoldenEye 007

Honestly, I think 007 (#20) would get like 47% on Mario 64 (#7) in a fair match. I feel good about LttP/Mario 3/Mario World and maybe Melee, but I really haven't the slightest idea how the middle goes.
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transients | Posted 5/28/2009 6:56:49 PM | message detail
HM haterz

this man will ride Snake's stache to the finals
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 5/28/2009 6:56:59 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
ZFS | Posted 5/28/2009 6:57:28 PM | message detail
is CT vs. Metal Gear Solid?

That'd be tougher for reasons that aren't entirely objective !

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transients | Posted 5/28/2009 6:57:59 PM | message detail
*insert Pokemon joke here*
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 5/28/2009 6:58:59 PM | message detail
vindication will come tonight, pokefreakz

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 7:00:07 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction

OoT > RBY > MGS > FF8

And MGS being closer to FF8 than RBY
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/28/2009 7:00:49 PM | message detail
"Honestly, I think 007 (#20) would get like 47% on Mario 64 (#7) in a fair match. I feel good about LttP/Mario 3/Mario World and maybe Melee, but I really haven't the slightest idea how the middle goes."

Doesn't that match have "SFF" written all over it? They're two of the top 3 games, so it could really ugly.
transients | Posted 5/28/2009 7:01:23 PM | message detail
screw ranking them - I'll tier them.

FF7
OOT

LTTP
Mario 3
Mario World
Mario 64
Brawl
Melee

RBY
CT
FF10
MGS4
FF8
MGS1

TP
RE4
KH1
KH2
GS
FF6
Mario 1
Goldeneye

there's your TERRIFIC TWENTY TWO
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 5/28/2009 7:02:38 PM | message detail
I'm down with those tiers.

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transients | Posted 5/28/2009 7:03:22 PM | message detail
I should probably throw Zelda 1 into the last one. I don't ever take Goldeneye over Zelda 1.
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/28/2009 7:04:58 PM | message detail
LttP on its own tier imho
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 7:12:09 PM | message detail
Match LIII: Metal Gear Solid vs. Pokemon RBY vs. LoZ: Ocarina of Time vs. Final Fantasy VIII

Last Round:

Metal Gear Solid – 33.22%
Pokemon RBY – 26.27%
LoZ: Majora’s Mask – 21.58%
Pokemon GS – 18.93%

LoZ: Ocarina of Time – 49.36%
Final Fantasy VIII – 21.10%
Starcraft – 16.63%
Final Fantasy IX – 12.91%

Analysis

Like the last match all four of these games deserve to be in the top 20. This match is the one everyone has been waiting for since the first round. Sure first place is locked up, but second is open for any of the other three games. By looking at previous rounds and the variety of these games this will likely have the highest vote total of the contest with maybe the final being the only match in contention.

With an impressive two rounds Ocarina of Time should take this match rather easily, though even if it was unimpressive it would have done the same. Final Fantasy VII is doing rather well today and now it’s Ocarina of Time’s turn to show off its dominance. Breaking 40% here will be impressive though failing it won’t hurt its chances in the finals too much. It’s always been a contest tradition to watch the dominant entrants try to push the other to the limit.

Between the three games Pokemon RBY has the lowest chance at advancing. RBY may resist SFF because the game is on a handheld system, but it is not immune to it. Using Majora’s Mask or GS puts RBY at less than 55% against Metal Gear Solid. So unless there was some rSFF Pokemon can’t really take too much SFF before falling below Metal Gear Solid. The game does have a chance at taking second, but if one game is able to SFF Pokemon it would be Ocarina of Time.

After round one Final Fantasy VIII became the huge favourite at coming in second, however after round two and Starcraft’s performance that has gone into question. Easily defeating Starcraft was impressive, but when that same game goes on to get 25% on Ocarina of Time maybe it wasn’t as strong as we thought. Using Starcraft, Final Fantasy VIII getting about 32% on Ocarina of Time indirectly is pretty good, but when you are going up against some of the strongest games in the bracket that may not be enough.

Metal Gear Solid is the only one between the three games that haven’t had an impressive performance, but that’s because it has been surrounded by games over performing to people’s expectations. Still in all this dust Metal Gear Solid has been a solid game this contest and can very well take second. I may be a bit stubborn, but I don’t see Final Fantasy VIII being that strong and would rather give that performance to Starcraft being weak. Also Pokemon has Ocarina of Time to deal with and as any Nintendo game in this half of the bracket knows it will probably be the downfall of that game.

I may be giving my support to Metal Gear Solid, but the other two games all have reasons to take second in this match. Like I said expect high vote totals, we may even break 140k by the end. With Final Fantasy VII waking up Ocarina of Time is on the line to perform better. In the end the winner will probably be determined on which games are in the finals affecting Final Fantasy VII and Ocarina of Time.

charmander6000’s Bracket: LoZ: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid

charmander6000’s Prediction: LoZ: Ocarina of Time – 40.73%, Metal Gear Solid – 21.52%, Final Fantasy VIII – 19.64%, Pokemon RBY – 18.11%
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
creativename | Posted 5/28/2009 7:28:11 PM | message detail
CHRONO TRIGGER SPOILERS

Youll never know how I watched you from the shadows as a child,
Youll never know how it feels to get so close and be denied,
Its a gold and honey trap I've got for you tonight,
Revenge is a kiss this time I wont miss,
Now I've got you in my sight..


It's remarkable how much this sounds exactly like something Magus would say to Lavos in the 10,000 BC confrontation.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 7:34:12 PM | message detail
I have no idea what to expect from RBY trends here. Last round we expected it to have a great day vote but it did nothing, and even round 1 without another pokemon game there, it didnt rise during the day
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paulg235 | Posted 5/28/2009 7:36:41 PM | message detail
I actually posted those lyrics in mind of the CT/SM64 rematch. Though I was thinking about Magus.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/28/2009 7:38:49 PM | message detail
I wonder how much more OoT can hurt RBY than what it faced last round. I mean, obviously OoT is a good deal stronger than MM + GSC, but those two games probably pulled a ton from RBY. We'll find out in 80 minutes, I guess.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 7:42:22 PM | message detail
So...if FFVIII is in second at the freeze, is it pretty much over?
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/28/2009 7:43:34 PM | message detail
Maybe for OoT, but RBY will still be doubling it!
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ZFS | Posted 5/28/2009 7:44:34 PM | message detail
Not sure I'd say it's completely over, but that would probably look good for FFVIII if it could jump out to a lead early.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 7:44:49 PM | message detail
Pokemon RBY has a stronger night vote than the average Nintendo game, mostly because the other continents love it more than NA.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 7:45:32 PM | message detail
Pokemon basically died after the Power Hour last round.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 7:46:07 PM | message detail
So...if FFVIII is in second at the freeze, is it pretty much over?

It'd be over for RBY, but MGS would still have a chance.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 7:47:35 PM | message detail
Pokemon basically died after the Power Hour last round.

Power hour is a bad use for night trends, try looking at the morning/day vote. Also I said compare to other Nintendo games, not overall.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 7:48:16 PM | message detail
we got alot of pokeyhaters here
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/28/2009 7:50:14 PM | message detail
snake roasting some pokemon tonight

MGS bow down
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 52 - Bracket: FF7 > CT - Vote: Goldeneye (215/304)
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/28/2009 7:54:24 PM | message detail
If either RBY or MGS are losing to FF8 early on, they aren't winning. Period.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 7:56:28 PM | message detail
Power hour is a bad use for night trends, try looking at the morning/day vote.

I know. I'm just stating a fact. Don't be surprised if it does it again. OoT could very well negate its day vote. G/S sure did.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/28/2009 7:58:45 PM | message detail
"If either RBY or MGS are losing to FF8 early on, they aren't winning. Period."

What he said. FF8's board vote is just atrocious, isn't it? If it's winning in the first freeze, it won't just be an Ulti-style destruction, it'll be a total blowout.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 8:27:15 PM | message detail
I wonder how much whining we can expect tomorrow. Today was pretty bad, heh.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/28/2009 8:28:40 PM | message detail
*Loads up flamethrower*

:p

Still, it's either going to be one heck of a match, or a gigantic dud, so the whining is guaranteed. I hope it goes down to the wire with a close win for FF8, but I'll be happy with anything that goes down as long as Squall's game wins.