GameFAQs Contests

Youll never know how I watched you from the shadows as a child,
Youll never know how it feels to get so close and be denied,
Its a gold and honey trap I've got for you tonight,
Revenge is a kiss this time I wont miss,
Now I've got you in my sight...

...With a ChronoEye!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158

...
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

Predict the finals, let's go.

Final Fantasy VII
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Final Fantasy X
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Same as you, Blazer.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

Alright, enough of this 'restraint' crap

Time to toss a Master Ball at OoT

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Final Fantasy VII
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Super Smash Bros. Melee
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0

To be fair, KP does have the right to laugh at us since he called us delusional last night.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

For the record I did not mind the Persona discussion. It was a bit silly and trying to find an upset where there was none, but that doesn't mean we can't talk about it.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

oh fine mario's got this

way to suck (again) ct
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

I'm not laughing at anyone. I mostly just think red sox needs to take some sort of mild depressant during Chrono matches. >____>

HEY LOOK match pic isn't up yet. Why am I checking at 4 PM. Yeah I guess I need some of that stuff red sox should be taking as well.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

From: KamikazePotato | #010
I'm not laughing at anyone. I mostly just think red sox needs to take some sort of mild depressant during Chrono matches. >____>

HEY LOOK match pic isn't up yet. Why am I checking at 4 PM. Yeah I guess I need some of that stuff red sox should be taking as well.

But you deserve the right to laugh at me people is my point! And Red sox isn't the only one, I was also high on it last night.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

To be fair, most of my comments were back before 3:30 AM, when CT winning looked quite possible.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I'm not laughing at anyone. I mostly just think red sox needs to take some sort of mild depressant during Chrono matches. >____>

I thought he was mostly joking around. <_<
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2002: Mario | 53831 | 50.05% | Crono | 53716 | 49.95% | lead of 115 |
2003: Mario | 66571 | 50.05% | Crono | 66434 | 49.95% | lead of 137 |

I like Red Sox 777. He is everything a Chrono Trigger Fanboy should be.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

He spins for Crono and doesn't afraid of anything.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Even the pessimism doesn't work in this match.

I quit.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

If CT can actually fall less with the ASV than FF7 then I guess that's good enough
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Time | CT
1:00 | 50.50%
2:00 | 52.86%
3:00 | 53.61%
4:00 | 52.06%
5:00 | 52.61%
6:00 | 49.00%
7:00 | 44.46%
8:00 | 45.05%
9:00 | 47.76%
10:00 | 49.70%
11:00 | 49.04%
12:00 | 50.31%
13:00 | 52.62%
14:00 | 52.09%
15:00 | 47.97%
16:00 | 44.73%

CT narrowly avoids its worst hour of the day.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Mario vs Crono, who's your main btw
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

Also, the Plan is already off by 50 votes, so here is an edited version:

Mario 64's lead

5 PM: 450
6 PM: 650
7 PM: 800
8 PM: 900
9 PM: 850
10 PM: 700
11 PM: 450
Midnight: Negative whatever gives Mario 49.95%
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Hey, Chrono Trigger held on for one update longer than I expected. Good job.

And I seriously thought CT might have had a chance after the first hour, but once its huge gains died off, I basically figured it was done.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Don't be naming your CT planning shenanigans The Plan. That's reserved for Symphony of the Night and Alucard Kart only!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

I don't see Chrono having a chance with no real second night vote... not unless slowflake shows up and calls the match for Mario.
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I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience

not unless slowflake shows up and calls the match for Mario.

!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

And man, FFVII, what in the world happened to your ASV? 37% updates...
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Yeah, I wasn't trying to copy that, but couldn't think of a better name. At least I called it "the Plan" and not "The Plan."
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

FF7 is getting old. School-age kids aren't that familiar with it anymore. The game came out 12 years ago. Plus it's up again FREAKIN' MARIO and all that.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

The generation that played FFVII as kids graduated from high school.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Mario vs Crono, who's your main btw

I'm am alt with over 2000 Karma? <_< Out of interest, who did you think I was an alt of?
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2002: Mario | 53831 | 50.05% | Crono | 53716 | 49.95% | lead of 115 |
2003: Mario | 66571 | 50.05% | Crono | 66434 | 49.95% | lead of 137 |

So...I'll probably be on the bottom of the leaderboard after today (assuming SM64 hold on, which it will), but I have SM64 advancing after FFVII instead of LttP. Any chance of that happening? I was banking on the newer Nintendo game appealing to the younger audience, but Zelda tends to do so well in this Im guessing Im wrong.
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People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~ Rogers Hornsby

to make up for FF7s diminished asv though, its night vote is still massive
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

From: Mario vs Crono | #029
Mario vs Crono, who's your main btw

I'm am alt with over 2000 Karma? <_< Out of interest, who did you think I was an alt of?

Well I never see you post outside of Crono matches, so I assumed it was an alt.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

Man, this ASV is going entirely to Mario 64. CT and FFVII are both falling, but GE isn't picking up anything.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Well I never see you post outside of Crono matches, so I assumed it was an alt.

Ah, I see. I usually prefer to just lurk but I love the Mario vs Crono series of matches so I tend to participate during those.
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2002: Mario | 53831 | 50.05% | Crono | 53716 | 49.95% | lead of 115 |
2003: Mario | 66571 | 50.05% | Crono | 66434 | 49.95% | lead of 137 |

The generation that played FFVII as kids graduated from high school.


Exactly


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I will bury you.

Mario Cheated > Mario vs Crono

lol CT day vote
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xyzzy

I see what you did there, haiku man! (Yes, lol is one syllable.)
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

whoa. well played.
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xyzzy

So, what's the most CT could overturn from 10:00 onward? I think SM64 would be safe even if it stalled from here until 10:00 (lead of 446 as of 4:45 PM) and SM64 should be able to build a few more hours instead of stall...but I don't really trust you CT-fans to let nature take its course!
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BT > Harrich
lol me

CT's done. Forget about it.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Mario 64's SNV is pretty awful- it's not like FFVII where its SNV is (well, was, I guess nowadays its the dead zone) its best time of day. Let's see....

Peach swung 1700 votes on Jill in 5 hours with the ASV, starting from 1400 down, and Jill was able to almost come back at the end, presumably without rallying or anything like that.

....Yeah, Mario 64 is completely safe, but if you want to set a max for what CT could pull, we may as well go with what Mario did in Mario/Crono II- so about 800 votes in the last 2 hours.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Can't wait to see what picture gets chosen. Tonight's is the biggest match of the contest so far, easy.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Hopefully we can get a good match out of it, too.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I think FFVIII is going to win pretty easily.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

41.5% FFVII unstoppable

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

Since Starcraft was a complete flop, I'm gonna have to give my vote to Pokemon to increase the chances of FFX beating Melee later on. Even if Pokemon somehow makes it (it won't) I still think Melee is the favorite next round.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.

I'd like to see that, but this match doesn't give me much confidence. Mario and GE are putting up a much lower combined total than I would have figured, and FFVII/CT aren't hurting each other nearly as much as I thought. Tonight, FFVIII and MGS are in Mario/GE's shoes, Ocarina is FFVII, and Pokemon is CT, which came a lot closer to winning than I thought plausible.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

FFX has no chance against Melee. In fact, FFVIII and X will finish within a few % of each other in that poll.
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Being kind is more important than being right.

The difference, I think, is that Pokemon only got 44ish on MGS last round, while CT put up 48% on Mario 64.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Oh, hey, half-way point of R3:

FACT or FICTION: SMB3 > SMW > SM64 > SMB1.
FACT or FICTION: Tetris > FF2/4.
FACT or FICTION: LoZ:LttP will reach the championship.
FACT or FICTION: Super Metroid would 60-40 Metroid Prime.
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BT > Harrich
lol me