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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 730

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 11:52:49 AM | message detail
MGS/GE was more worthy of discussion than Mario 64/GoldenEye. Heck, no one talked about GE > Mario 64 until the List. It didn't happen. That was all the evidence we had for that pick.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 11:54:28 AM | message detail
It's ok guys, Vincent made a couple of big cuts on Crono before he started stalling again!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 11:55:03 AM | message detail
Although for the record, Crono didn't even start fighting back with Vincent in the ASV until Vincent was just about to take the lead, and Crono just wouldn't let him do it. In 2007, Vincent blew by Crono and never looked back.

If CT actually keeps fighting with Mario 64 once it's with 25 votes or so, then we'll see.
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paulg235 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:55:09 AM | message detail
To me, Mario/Shadow was one of the best matches in 2003 simply because Mario was looking like an idiot. I mean, would you have Tidus breaking 45% on MARIO?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/28/2009 11:55:13 AM | message detail
And Goldeneye performing notably better against OoT. If the two games would have performed similarly, I doubt such talk would have gained steam.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
voltch | Posted 5/28/2009 11:56:08 AM | message detail
so with VII's stellar performance here is OOT vs FFVII back to being debatable?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 11:56:18 AM | message detail
And Goldeneye performing notably better against OoT.

People only brought this up after the List, too. It was naturally assumed that Mario 64 got SFF'd harder. Nobody really thought anything of GE performing better against OoT until the List.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:56:28 AM | message detail
and = any

because the d and y are so close to each other

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/28/2009 11:57:18 AM | message detail
That's a strange question. It only became debatable when Ocarina of Time outperformed it for two rounds.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 11:59:28 AM | message detail
This match has great vote totals today. OoT's match probably will, too.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:00:02 PM | message detail
Time | CT
1:00 | 50.50%
2:00 | 52.86%
3:00 | 53.61%
4:00 | 52.06%
5:00 | 52.61%
6:00 | 49.00%
7:00 | 44.46%
8:00 | 45.05%
9:00 | 47.76%
10:00 | 49.70%
11:00 | 49.04%
12:00 | 50.31%
13:00 | 52.62%
14:00 | 52.09%
15:00 | 47.97%

gg CT.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:00:57 PM | message detail
This match has great vote totals today. OoT's match probably will, too.

Tomorrow's match will probably have the highest vote total outside of maybe the final.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/28/2009 12:01:18 PM | message detail
The funny thing that happened is when OoT decided to look better than FF7, no one really decided that, "oh, this might be a tossup" and instead went to "OoT's got the contest locked up now ggnore"

I'll say it again - I'll be surprised if FFX makes the finals. It's got a less than 50% chance of happening IMO. Not so with EVERY NINTENDO GAME ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BRACKET
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MnMZero | Posted 5/28/2009 12:01:50 PM | message detail
Even with the List, it's not like SM64 performed badly. We seem to only think about the Top 10 for the list, but games like SM64 and FFX were right there. Plus we still don't have any data on the number of entries and the distance between the games on the list. Plus SM64 and FFX had to contend with other games of their series.

Hell, I'd use SM64's position on the list as a testament to its strength.

Speaking of the list, San Andreas is well up there on the list and this is a year after it was released so "newness" factor shouldn't have been too much of an issue. And in this contest I really didn't see much of a difference in any of the GTAs performances. Are people still sticking to Vice City being the most popular in the series (something I obviously disagree with)?
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Proud Supporter of Zero
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/28/2009 12:02:35 PM | message detail
And CT just got its lead halved in the lead up to the ASV. I'm stunned that people are still giving it a shot.
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turnturnturn your brain in
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:04:42 PM | message detail
CT looks doomed, but that's alright- we are going to avenge Mario/Crono II tonight (without the cheating), and this is the only way to do it.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 12:05:12 PM | message detail
I said Mario 64 would win with at least 1000.

Maybe I'll change that to 1500
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xp1337 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:05:19 PM | message detail
Mario 64 wishes it could half CT's lead! It was only a meager 41% cut off of it!

*Sees next update*

...

...

...Whoops?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/28/2009 12:06:48 PM | message detail
This is brutal. Somebody throw in the towel now.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/28/2009 12:07:20 PM | message detail
The funny thing that happened is when OoT decided to look better than FF7, no one really decided that, "oh, this might be a tossup" and instead went to "OoT's got the contest locked up now ggnore"

I think that had more to do with people feeling OoT was legitimately stronger and would win a 1v1 match right after the real finals. It was hard for me not to give FFVII the edge when, as you said, the #2 or #3 Nintendo game was guaranteed to be there, and when even the fourth entry might very well be neutral or Nintendo as well.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:07:41 PM | message detail
By the way, Mario isn't all that great at the ASV anymore, and the bulk of his ASV strength is concentrated in the earlier hours. This means CT should be able to stop Mario's momentum around 8 instead of past 10 with Vincent, and then attempt a comeback. Now, Mario will probably be up way too much by that time for this to matter.....but he only gained 900 on Zack last year starting from 300 up and Zack's ASV is horrid, yes, BELIEVE.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/28/2009 12:08:29 PM | message detail
This match is only REALLY telling me that RBY should lose tomorrow. One, I expect LoZ:OoT to hurt it more than LoZ:MM and GS combined. Two, it was already a few percent under MGS with LoZ:MM and GS in the match, and MGS is returning. Three, if FF7 can beat SM64 this badly, LoZ:OoT should be able to beat RBY this badly too before SFF...and I don't see why LoZ:OoT can't SFF a game it could probably 65-35. Pokemon's hardcore fanbase is the only thing that can save it, but I think being in a match with LoZ:OoT is too much to ask now. It doesn't help that there is another big RPG in FF8 there, too, though that may not matter.
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BT > Harrich
lol me
red sox 777 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:10:06 PM | message detail
Mario.......

.......
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 5/28/2009 12:10:35 PM | message detail
Wow...SM64 is cutting FFVII's votes too...

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/28/2009 12:10:36 PM | message detail
Pokemon is going to get Charizard and Blastoise looking all badass. OoT is going to get MM Link and WW Link making out. Let's all just cut the dookie and stop pretending this won't happen.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/28/2009 12:11:07 PM | message detail
Moustached freak.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 12:11:25 PM | message detail
sigh this is gonna be a 2-3k win isn it
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 12:12:39 PM | message detail
Mario 64 is going to win here by about the same percent as round 2. How anticlimactic
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paulg235 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:12:56 PM | message detail
Mario 64's gone beserk on CT.

*Blares Bower's theme*

Third time's the charm.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:13:41 PM | message detail
Nah, I still think CT can keep it within 1000 by the end. Look at the shape of Mario 64's ASV in round 1: it hit its peak percentages the first hour of the ASV and fell from there culminating in an awful SNV.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3460&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

By comparison, CT hits its lows in the first hour of the ASV, and gradually recovered from there.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3461&type=2&seconds=60&max=0
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BOOMSHAKALAKA1 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:14:29 PM | message detail
oh god the kiddies came from school, i hate north america vote swings
red sox 777 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:15:05 PM | message detail
And CT stalls Mario 64 now, probably just so it can keep the last shred of my hope alive and thereby torture me for a few more minutes....or hours.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 12:15:50 PM | message detail
there is no hope left. its just how many thousands it loses by thats the question now
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/28/2009 12:15:56 PM | message detail
Red... red, it's over.

*slowly motions for red to leave the computer and come eat his pea soup*
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 12:16:04 PM | message detail
The graph shows that Mario 64 did pretty much the same from 15:00 to 20:00 and CT making a slight improvement after 19:00

Mm hmmm
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
TheOceIot | Posted 5/28/2009 12:16:35 PM | message detail
Joseph Stalin
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 5/28/2009 12:17:00 PM | message detail
....am I the only one who nearly had a heart attack at Mario's 149-vote gain?








then realized it was 1 vote, lol

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:17:19 PM | message detail
I hate peas, and I absolutely refuse to eat them.

Anyway, the other thing to watch for is whether CT can beat FFVII at the ASV this time- so far it's a small bit ahead of it.
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paulg235 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:19:23 PM | message detail
Only 32 votes left.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 12:21:24 PM | message detail
The only thing I'm watching now is if FF7 can stay over 41%
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/28/2009 12:22:27 PM | message detail
Good lord. I can feel the amount of sweat CT fans are getting on this topic. This is far outdoing anything Pokemon fans did.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/28/2009 12:23:18 PM | message detail
sweat? on the topic?

wtf you talking about potato dude
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paulg235 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:24:26 PM | message detail
Only 3 votes off that update.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:24:47 PM | message detail
Another stall, but we'll probably get the lead change next update.
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 5/28/2009 12:26:38 PM | message detail
stall, cut, stall, cut, etc

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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 12:29:13 PM | message detail
Chrono Trigger's got this.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Mario vs Crono | Posted 5/28/2009 12:29:28 PM | message detail
CT manages to hang on for another update. It shouldn't be too long until a lead change.
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2002: Mario | 53831 | 50.05% | Crono | 53716 | 49.95% | lead of 115 |
2003: Mario | 66571 | 50.05% | Crono | 66434 | 49.95% | lead of 137 |
Piazza | Posted 5/28/2009 12:29:56 PM | message detail
Might be the last update CT has the lead
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People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~ Rogers Hornsby
red sox 777 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:31:20 PM | message detail
The Plan:

Mario's lead:

4 PM: 100
5 PM: 300
6 PM: 500
7 PM: 700
8 PM: 800
9 PM: 800
10 PM: 700
11 PM: 500
12 PM: Negative whatever it is that gives Mario 49.95%.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/28/2009 12:32:04 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction: CT gets a small gain on the next update, but then loses the lead convincingly on the one after.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile