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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 730

UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/28/2009 11:19:09 AM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 5/28/2009 2:17:49 PM | #348
I think any Nintendo 64 fan would have told you SM64 would crush GE in a direct match.

You want me to bring up Mario/Samus or should I ask Ulti?


Wait, what? Mario 64 over Goldeneye 1v1 seems like an easy pick.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/28/2009 11:19:36 AM | message detail
We need to connect Crono/Vincent with Mario/Samus somehow. That way we'll have a catch-all to bring up in comparison to absolutely anything that pops into people's heads

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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/28/2009 11:19:48 AM | message detail
Just like Mario over Samus!
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turnturnturn your brain in
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 5/28/2009 11:19:52 AM | message detail
O_o

i want to believe...i really do...i havent followed this contest enough in years past to become as cynical as the rest of you....

DAMMIT CRONO IF THIS IS A TEASE I WILL REPLAY THE GAME AND INTENTIONALLY WATCH YOU DIE OVER AND OVER AGAIN

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formerly known as The_LeppreKhan
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/28/2009 11:20:59 AM | message detail
The comparison to make here is Chrono Trigger versus Link to the Past. By any measure, LTTP should have blown CT away during the ASV that year. But no matter how hard it tried, it couldn't shake CT for hours before ultimately to the late evening and night votes.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/28/2009 11:21:51 AM | message detail
OK I kind of figured the Vincent/Crono thing was a joke but I had a few people use that as an argument in a couple other topics ant they were NOT joking.

While some schools may be out, I would not say the majority are. Maybe a quarter, and most of those would be high schools. When I was in school it was the first week in June.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/28/2009 11:21:52 AM | message detail
We need to connect Crono/Vincent with Mario/Samus somehow. That way we'll have a catch-all to bring up in comparison to absolutely anything that pops into people's heads

Crono/Vincent I and Mario/Samus were only two days apart from one another...
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turnturnturn your brain in
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xp1337 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:22:48 AM | message detail
I actually had thought of the CT/LttP match before, to be honest. But the Crono/Vincent one is just much more amusing and topical.

Also, with CT having pulled away, relatively, Crono/Vincent would probably be closer thematically. Had CT and Mario stayed in the low double-digits leads like they had been for the few hours earlier, than CT/LttP would be the more apt comparison.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
transience | Posted 5/28/2009 11:24:08 AM | message detail
Goldeneye > Mario 64 was the exact same logic as Samus > Mario. I bought into the hype for Goldeneye but figured there was no way in hell it could touch Mario 64 head-on.
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xyzzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 11:27:01 AM | message detail
Samus > Mario actually had contest match evidence behind it. Goldeneye64 > Mario64 just seems like a kind of random pick to me
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:29:06 AM | message detail
CT is looking damn good right now.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/28/2009 11:29:29 AM | message detail
Goldeneye's percentage gradually goes up, Mario's percentage gradually goes down.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 11:29:36 AM | message detail
CT wins the ASV confirmed.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/28/2009 11:29:37 AM | message detail

From: RockMFR 5 | Posted: 5/28/2009 2:29:06 PM | #361
CT is looking damn good right now.


^5
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
xp1337 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:30:42 AM | message detail
Samus > Mario actually had contest match evidence behind it. Goldeneye64 > Mario64 just seems like a kind of random pick to me

Technically they shared the common opponent in OoT in 2k4 and Goldeneye did better, but... that's obviously a rather questionable way of looking at it.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/28/2009 11:31:23 AM | message detail
Goldeneye did better on OoT than Mario 64, it ended up higher on The List, and along with MGS and the games that lost to each of those games had the biggest weighted gains relative to the rest of the SpC2k4 entrants.

By games contest standards, that's like triple the evidence Samus > Mario had!
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turnturnturn your brain in
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/28/2009 11:31:27 AM | message detail
I admit it is looking good right now but I don't see this lasting. Maybe the East Coast schools are out of session so there isn't an East Coast ASV. Anybody from the East Coast, when did school end for you? I'm from the Mountain Time Zone and school ended first week of June for us.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
transience | Posted 5/28/2009 11:31:49 AM | message detail
Goldeneye > Mario 64 had a match with OOT. Samus > Mario had a match with Link.

same thing really
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xyzzy
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superCP | Posted 5/28/2009 11:31:55 AM | message detail
CT winning the ASV?! can someone explain this?

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Phantom Hourglass FC: 3523 0267 3523
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MnMZero | Posted 5/28/2009 11:32:09 AM | message detail
It's because matches in 4 ways have no tension. It's either a battle between the Top 2, in which case no one cares since neither of them is being eliminated, or it's between #2 and #3 in which case nobody cares because it's not like either of them is the winner. Without the threat of elimination or the triumph of victory there's nothing to get excited about.

I'm catching up, so don't know if anyone else has jumped on this, but EXACTLY. This is why 4 way contests need to go for now; they have had their day(s!) in the sun.


I somewhat disagree, particularly with the comment about 2 vs. 3 matches. There isn't much difference between those and a close match between two entrants before the winner being thrown to a top entrant in the next round. Only now, we don't have to waste a day watching said top entrant beating down a scrub one-on-one. Plus, like we are doing today and tomorrow, we can still compare the performances of top entrants each round until they face.

I think the biggest problem people here have with 4-ways is that we simply don't have a grasp of the data, combined with having to account for how other entrants in the match affect a particular entity, instead of just looking at the 1-on-1 matchup. Good for unpredictability. Bad for statistics and analysis. I'd rather have the former personally.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 11:32:21 AM | message detail
What? ASV generally doesn't start until 3 PM or later.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/28/2009 11:32:46 AM | message detail
CT is looking *really* good right now. Much better than it did against LTTP, and much better than how Crono looked in either Vincent match.

CTDS gives CT a respectable ASV confirmed.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
transience | Posted 5/28/2009 11:32:48 AM | message detail
afterschool vote doesn't start til 3 at the earliest.
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xyzzy
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 11:33:20 AM | message detail
Don't listen to the lies Chrono Trigger has this all locked up.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/28/2009 11:33:30 AM | message detail
Today's match has plenty of tension, as did Crono/Vincent 2.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
BOOMSHAKALAKA1 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:33:37 AM | message detail
what asv? most schools are out.. be some, but no where near say couple weeks ago.. CT FTW!
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/28/2009 11:33:58 AM | message detail
Oh yeah what the heck was I thinking it's only 11:33. I thought it was 12:33. No wonder I was so surprised.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
Jose Escamilla | Posted 5/28/2009 11:34:28 AM | message detail
Aww yeah let's hop on the Metal Gear Solid hype train!
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/28/2009 11:34:44 AM | message detail
11:33 my time (Pacific Time) of course.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 11:35:29 AM | message detail
Samus > Mario wasn't based on Link. It was based on Samus's performances in 2004 where she beat the pants off of Mario's performances. Getting 41% on Cloud, beating Sonic with 57.5% Mario loses to Crono that year by over 6%. Anyone could see that in that year, Samus was far more impressive. Samus > Mario may have worked out if not for the fact that in 2005, Mario decided to inject himself with steroids and beat Crono even worse than the year before and slaughter Zero, etc.
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Naomi_Diamond | Posted 5/28/2009 11:35:55 AM | message detail
While there are a variety of times for the letting out of schools, the East Coast high schools generally get out around 2-ish.

Middle schools would get out around 2:30-ish - 3.

Elementary schools get out around 3 - 3:30.

I figure it's the same everywhere, or close to it.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 11:38:41 AM | message detail
Most schools? I think it's safe to say that most schools don't get off until the beginning of June. The majority are definitely still in
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/28/2009 11:39:17 AM | message detail
Samus > Mario may have worked out if not for the fact that in 2005, Mario decided to inject himself with steroids and beat Crono even worse than the year before and slaughter Zero, etc.

Really now? - because you can make a more than decent case for Samus being much more impressive than Mario in 2008, y'know.

...anyone up for Samus > Mario 2k9/10?
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 11:39:52 AM | message detail
Here's the ASV
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:40:01 AM | message detail
Mario is looking damn good right now.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
Julian_Caesar | Posted 5/28/2009 11:41:53 AM | message detail
Mario is looking damn good right now.

XD

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 11:42:06 AM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #383
Really now? - because you can make a more than decent case for Samus being much more impressive than Mario in 2008, y'know.

...anyone up for Samus > Mario 2k9/10?


Not NEARLY to the extent that 2004 showed. Samus was coming off an all time high looking year and Mario was clearing coming off of what seemed to be an all-time low. That year could have had a reversal.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
xp1337 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:43:17 AM | message detail
Samus/Mario had a bunch of things for it, and I'm saying this having been on the Samus train back then.

There was the common opponent in Link.

Samus doing better against Cloud in 2k4 than Mario did against Sephiroth in 2k3.

Crono > Mario

I mean, none of it helped when it actually happened, and it made things look painfully obvious in retrospect, but Samus/Mario was a whole different kind of train. It was pretty well-supported given how badly it turned out.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 11:43:30 AM | message detail
Besides, Mario didn't have a single poll in 2008 where he wasn't paired with some other Nintendo character. You can't draw any conclusions there
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/28/2009 11:44:20 AM | message detail
"It's a me, Mario! Heeeree we go!"
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:45:14 AM | message detail
Perfect, you're all falling into place exactly as you were supposed to. Now all you have to do is take the out-of-nowhere renewed discussion on Mario Samus (a result that never was going to or will happen) and link it with Crono and Vincent.
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MnMZero | Posted 5/28/2009 11:45:51 AM | message detail
Meh, Samus > Mario was more to Mario not doing jack **** at any point before 2005.

Of course, even "55/45 on Shadow" Mario would have beaten Samus through SFF. I blame Samus/Link 2003 for creating false SFF hope! It's all WW Link's fault.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 11:46:34 AM | message detail
Looks like Super Mario 64 is going to blow by CT. This lead should be gone by 3:30 max, and that's if CT pulls a couple of stall updates.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:48:38 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 5/28/2009 11:48:46 AM | message detail
Mario > Samus more like one of the biggest cases of rSFF we've ever seen obviously

we all know whose stronger indirectly!
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Match 52 - Bracket: FF7 > CT - Vote: Goldeneye (215/304)
xp1337 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:49:01 AM | message detail
Oh man, Mario/Shadow, I don't think I'll ever understand that match. Ever. (I know, I know, "Shadow was seen as a Sonic proxy", but still, it just seems surreal).
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
MnMZero | Posted 5/28/2009 11:49:10 AM | message detail
Mario vs. Samus and Crono vs. Vincent happened first in the same year!

They will be forever linked.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 11:50:03 AM | message detail
Good for unpredictability. Bad for statistics and analysis. I'd rather have the former personally.

Good for unpredictability beforehand, but most of these matches have been decided within the first hour. This is seriously about the most exciting match of the contest. This isn't about stats and analysis. 2007 was perfect. In fact, it was too perfect. That's why it's still here.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:51:39 AM | message detail
You want me to bring up Mario/Samus or should I ask Ulti?

The only people that thought GE would beat SM64 were the ones that believed the list, the same list that had Halo in 9th.

Besides we've never had and indication of SM64 or GE's true strength.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/28/2009 11:52:46 AM | message detail
This looks to be over. Dammit.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid