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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 730

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 9:57:23 AM | message detail
Why?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/28/2009 9:58:30 AM | message detail
Melee vs. FFX is debatable on its own. FF LFF has been the 2nd-worst in the contest after RBY/GS. OoT shouldn't harm Melee too much; SSB stood up to SMB in the series contest very well.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 9:58:34 AM | message detail
You know Ocarina of Time will probably get last in Asia.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/28/2009 9:58:37 AM | message detail
I like Melee there, but it's in no way guaranteed.
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Mustache...and Green...
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transience | Posted 5/28/2009 9:58:51 AM | message detail
I don't think it's confirmed that FF10 loses that, but I do think it's a lot more likely than if it was MGS. I would back Melee though.
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yzzyx
BOOMSHAKALAKA1 | Posted 5/28/2009 9:59:51 AM | message detail
lol @ melee beat OoT.. sorry, that game doesnt get sffed/lffed/rsffeed. w/e
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 10:00:01 AM | message detail
Hmm. CT might have a comparatively respectable lead come the ASV if it can keep this up for another hour and a half or so.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 10:00:44 AM | message detail
OoT shouldn't harm Melee too much; SSB stood up to SMB in the series contest very well.

This is Ocarina of Time we're talking about. Plus, I'd rather be on the strong side of the SFF than the weak side like Melee would be.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 10:02:51 AM | message detail
Actually, I guess looking at how FFX stands up to Melee with KH there could tell us a lot about how it could do in that match.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/28/2009 10:08:44 AM | message detail
I also think Melee is the favorite in the potential Zelda/FFVIII/SSBM/FFX match. All of us stupid enough to have Zelda/FFX really need a pokemon victory tomorrow. While possible, I just don't see that happening. MGS would make it a bit better, but I'd still give Melee the win the next round. It is going to be interesting, but I think Melee is going to destroy this round with KH really leeching.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
RPGGamer0 | Posted 5/28/2009 10:36:00 AM | message detail
Doesn't matter 'cause MGS is gonna beat them anyway.

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|PM|
After 15: 48/60
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/28/2009 10:40:47 AM | message detail
I wonder how close FFX can get to OoT if it's OoT/RBY/SSBM/FFX?
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 5/28/2009 10:42:50 AM | message detail
Not close 'cause MGS would come back from the dead and choke them all out anyway.

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|PM|
After 15: 48/60
FastFalcon05 | Posted 5/28/2009 10:43:53 AM | message detail
It's because matches in 4 ways have no tension. It's either a battle between the Top 2, in which case no one cares since neither of them is being eliminated, or it's between #2 and #3 in which case nobody cares because it's not like either of them is the winner. Without the threat of elimination or the triumph of victory there's nothing to get excited about.

I'm catching up, so don't know if anyone else has jumped on this, but EXACTLY. This is why 4 way contests need to go for now; they have had their day(s!) in the sun.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983-4640-3352 Brawl Code
JOckoSupreme | Posted 5/28/2009 10:45:56 AM | message detail
FF7 or Ocarina of time? Who's gonna take it
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Brawl FC: 3222-5233-1023 Name: JFO
__hiei__ | Posted 5/28/2009 10:47:37 AM | message detail
by this update,Mario was 1642 ahead,it's now 201 behind

considering we also have less votes to play with because of FF7,this may end pretty close.
Scott_Pilgrim | Posted 5/28/2009 10:48:21 AM | message detail
Does Mario 64 still have a chance in this? It seems like CT is just building up its lead.
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Oh, sorry, I got distracted by FastFalcon.
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=169
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 10:48:30 AM | message detail
Mario 64 wins by at least 1000. Whether you consider that close or not I don't know
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Silverflash-x | Posted 5/28/2009 10:51:17 AM | message detail
Even though I really want CT to win, this looks good for SM64. Its ASV will easily top the lead it has now, no questions. Yeah, there's still time to build, but can it build around 1000 votes in just a few hours? Not without some serious rallying.
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Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon?
A. None. Snakes don't have armpits.
consolefreak | Posted 5/28/2009 10:52:23 AM | message detail
A few hours? CT has nowhere near that long. 30 minutes, more like.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/28/2009 10:56:28 AM | message detail
Yeah CT only has about 30 more minutes to build as much as it can. The only chance it has (I don't believe it even has a chance) is to minimize ASV losses and take MAJOR advantage of the SNV. Again, I don't think that's gonna happen. I expect Mario to be making 30 vote gains per update during the heat of the ASV.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 10:56:34 AM | message detail
Chrono Trigger will survive at least an hour, its ASV is terrible, but at least it's better than the dead zone.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 10:57:54 AM | message detail
The only match this contest where it had an ASV was the first round and it did do quite a bit worse at that time than the dead zone.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
transience | Posted 5/28/2009 10:58:32 AM | message detail
yeah, this lead should vanish an hour in.
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xyzzy
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 10:59:12 AM | message detail
More updates like that please
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Scott_Pilgrim | Posted 5/28/2009 10:59:30 AM | message detail
I'll believe this ASV when I see it.
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Oh, sorry, I got distracted by FastFalcon.
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=169
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/28/2009 10:59:55 AM | message detail
CT's only chance is it for to defy all logic and stall Mario 64 out in the ASV.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
xp1337 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:00:20 AM | message detail
Vincent/Crono at 1:59 PM - Crono lead of 310.

SM64/CT at 1:58 PM - CT lead of 271.

Difference of 39 votes. Crono went on to beat Vincent by 78.

Chrono Trigger has got this.

>_>
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 11:01:18 AM | message detail
That's the right idea!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/28/2009 11:02:04 AM | message detail
Why do people keep referencing the Crono/Vincent match? The voting patterns for Vincent/Mario 64 are nothing alike.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
xp1337 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:02:54 AM | message detail
Why do people keep referencing the Crono/Vincent match? The voting patterns for Vincent/Mario 64 are nothing alike.

Speaking for myself, I'm not serious. I'm just willing to make any comparison, no matter how absurd, to give CT a chance in this match.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:02:55 AM | message detail
Using Crono/Vincent for comebacks is a fad.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
FastFalcon05 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:03:09 AM | message detail
Why do people keep referencing the Crono/Vincent match?

The million dollar question of the stats topic for the past month.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983-4640-3352 Brawl Code
Julian_Caesar | Posted 5/28/2009 11:03:34 AM | message detail
Hmmmm....CT hits 22% for the first time in 6 hours....

well, I'm actually glad it's turning out this way...because if CT does win, as I hope, then it will truly be a heroic effort, a well-earned victory

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/28/2009 11:04:19 AM | message detail
red sox started that fad argh
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 11:07:03 AM | message detail
Best stats topic fad IMO
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/28/2009 11:07:52 AM | message detail
What lead do you think Mario 64 would need going into the final hour to hold off CT's usual shenanigans?
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Demyx is better than Axel.
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 11:08:10 AM | message detail
At least 2000.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/28/2009 11:08:18 AM | message detail
Holy crap, I expected CT to be down by a ton when I woke up today. If Chrono miraculously survives the ASV, it's got a chance.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:09:07 AM | message detail
I actually enjoy the Crono/Vincent comparisons. I find them hilarious, personally. Admittedly they can be overdone at times, but in this match it has to be expected.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/28/2009 11:09:09 AM | message detail
Well so much for that.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
__hiei__ | Posted 5/28/2009 11:09:48 AM | message detail
What lead do you think Mario 64 would need going into the final hour to hold off CT's usual shenanigans?

Mario is also prone to shenanigans so if this comes to the last hour with something like a 100 difference,expect crazy stuff to start happening,like both games matching FF7 in updates and stuff.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/28/2009 11:12:22 AM | message detail
Jesus, FF7. Only a drop of 5% from last round when you replace Super Mario RPG and Mario Kart 64 with CHRONO TRIGGER AND MARIO 64? You can't even blame Nintendo fanbase splitting on this one, especially when looking at last round.

And Goldeneye with 40% on Mario 64... kinda embarrassing after the long hype the two games have had against each other, but considering what Mario 64 ended up becoming this isn't too shabby of a finish for Goldeneye, potential SFF and such included.
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turnturnturn your brain in
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/28/2009 11:12:45 AM | message detail
I'll believe this ASV when I see it.

There ya go.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:13:51 AM | message detail
I think any Nintendo 64 fan would have told you SM64 would crush GE in a direct match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304
Julian_Caesar | Posted 5/28/2009 11:15:15 AM | message detail
Mario is also prone to shenanigans

Doubly so in a match involving Crono.

Even though a close match is unlikely, if it does happen....

BOLD PREDICTION: If the match is within 200 votes going into the final hour, CJayC will return in a whirlwind and, with 5 minutes left in the match, deduct 300 votes from CT for vote-stuffing.

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hochiminhX | Posted 5/28/2009 11:15:28 AM | message detail
The greater vast majority of schools are out. The ASV will be far less than last round.
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I will bury you.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/28/2009 11:17:49 AM | message detail
I think any Nintendo 64 fan would have told you SM64 would crush GE in a direct match.

You want me to bring up Mario/Samus or should I ask Ulti?
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turnturnturn your brain in
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/28/2009 11:18:21 AM | message detail
When I was in grade school and high school, we always started the first week of September and finished in the middle of June. Early June normally, later June if there were a lot of snow days and such. I didn't start getting out in May until college.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
FastFalcon05 | Posted 5/28/2009 11:18:49 AM | message detail
I actually found the vincent/crono comparisons really funny too, just not today when all I want is for super mario 64 to blow by ct.


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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983-4640-3352 Brawl Code