GameFAQs Contests

The first half of this hour was very bad for CT last round, but the second half was very good. SM64 is almost as bad as CT in Europe; I have a feeling SM64 is going to be worse than CT in Europe this round, with FFVII being the reason. I can't really articulate why that would be so, but I think it will be.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Really? I recall FF7, Cloud and Sephiroth always starting bad, then rising to heaven all match. But you guys know more about recent trends than I do, so I'll take your word on it.

Yeah, those have always been FF7's trends until last year when it suddenly started peaking during the DSV and falling with the ASV.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

From: red sox 777 | #151
The first half of this hour was very bad for CT last round, but the second half was very good. SM64 is almost as bad as CT in Europe; I have a feeling SM64 is going to be worse than CT in Europe this round, with FFVII being the reason. I can't really articulate why that would be so, but I think it will be.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3485&region=EUR
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

Hmm? SM64 only beat CT in Europe a little worse than it beat it in North America. From that I conclude that it probably does have a really bad European vote.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

man you really are optomistic aren't ya
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

I just said it was a hunch. It could easily be wrong.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

this match is over, regardless. CT needs to be getting 20-3o vote gains in the dead of night, not these miniscule 5-10 vote gains. Its gonna lose by at least a thousand
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

For what it's worth, we don't know how GE affects SM64's day-vote yet. I still like SM64 though...come on and ruin my bracket already!
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Neither FFVII nor GE are going to affect the ASV much, except by making the number of votes CT and SM64 have to work with smaller, so that the number of votes SM64 can come back is lower than last round, but the percentages will not be affected.

FFVII might, I think, might have a bit more affect on the late night simply because it is going to be incredibly dominant in a couple hours- pulling regular 50%+ updates probably.

In any case, the thing that will have the biggest effect on trend changes between this and last round remains Mario's start. CT has gained 625 votes since the 25 minute mark; it gained 405 over the same period last round, working with more votes.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Above 500 now. But FFVII steals the show and keeps climbing for 40%.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

Yeah, the fact that CT has a bigger lead despite working with fewer votes is impressive. Mario 64 is still the favorite to win, but it won't be winning by 3000-4000 votes, I'd wager. I don't know if it'll even take a lead until the ASV. Mario 64 took a lead early the last time, but it was a weekend match so day vote trends kick in earlier. It should be cutting CT during the morning vote though. If it isn't, CT may have a chance.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I need to go to sleep. Hopefully CT is at 1000, or at least close, when I wake up.

CT's current percentage: 52.00%
Current projection: SM64 wins with 50.94%

CT hits 52%, and the projection finally falls under 51%.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Gotta go to sleep also.. When i wake up, CT will be in the lead with 1500+ votes .. BANK ON IT!

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII

-sigh- CT why are you letting Mario cut you...
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

Ok, I'm gonna watch two more updates before going to bed. If I had to make a decision right now, I'd say Mario is looking good.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.

2 straight cuts for mario... ct you gotta be kidding me. I expect to wake up with mario with a lead.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1659&type=1&seconds=60&max=0

Even in 2k4 OoT was best against FFVII during the ASV.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.

Yeah I miss the days of CT collapsing after the first 4 hours. What a nice time it would be to bring that back
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Yeah, Mario's got it. This lead won't come near 1000. I love how Mario will manage to both look like crap and still win, dashing the hopes of CT's most ardent supporters. Actually, I hate it. The Mario series has been surprisingly annoying this contest.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

From: Mac Arrowny | #167
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1659&type=1&seconds=60&max=0

Even in 2k4 OoT was best against FFVII during the ASV.

Good lord, FFVII managed some 70% updates? Win or not, good luck getting those on OoT now.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Mario doesn't have it... this is Crono/Vincent II all over again. I suggest you all strap yourselves in because this match is going to be our first epic one this contest.

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I will bury you.

Euro vote time already?
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Gah 20 cut. Me thinks it's over for Chrono Trigger :(


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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

And that makes 3 cuts. This one a significant one. I'm officially calling this one. Mario has second. Off to bed. When I awake, Mario will probably be winning and will never look back.

NEXT!
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.

Ha, GoldenEye just took second on that update.

Yep, CT's probably done.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

FFVII what a beast. 40% ain't nothin' !

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

CT gained only 77 votes that hour.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

40% get
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

With a 50% update no less
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

lol... a 12% update from mario
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/2784-66688-Pic1JPG-550x.jpg

CT's lead has stayed between 593 and 599 for over half an hour.

It'd be awesome if it stayed this way for the rest of the match, but I think morning might change this.
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.

It was up above 600 for a few updates and now there's a 23 vote cut on CT. I think Mario is really to start pulling a comeback here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Well if Chrono Trigger stays in the lead then I get my first 16-pointer. Otherwise, its very unlikely that I will get full points for ANY third round match. In case you didn't see the first time around, here were the rest of my round 3 picks.

Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid

I have MGS getting to the finals, but instead it's going to die here.

Halo > Super Smash Bros. Melee

LMAO, 4 points guaranteed at best. But I thought that Halo and SSBM were roughly equal in strength except that Halo benefits greatly from this format (uhm, was I paying attention to last contest?). Halo is the turd of the division IMO (though I did see Metroid Prime's flop coming, so...).

Resident Evil 4 > Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas

Well, I thought that Twilight Princess would be weaker than Wind Waker (due to less critical acclaim, grr), and according to the list San Andreas > Resident Evil 4 > Metal Gear Solid 3 > Half-Life 2 > Wind Waker, with San Andreas possibly going down to to GTAIV (did that actually happen, to it and the other PS2 GTAs?). Oops.

Metal Gear Solid 4 > Super Smash Bros Brawl

I had Super Mario Galaxy making this match, and I assumed that it would hurt Brawl enough for Metal Gear Solid 4 to win. Big oops.

Good lord, FFVII managed some 70% updates? Win or not, good luck getting those on OoT now.

That link you had checked out was for 1 minute updates, since the updater back then was tracking a crapload of updates since there were instant updates back then. You want to set the link to display a graph for 5 minute updates:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1659&type=1&seconds=300&max=0

With 5 minute updates, FFVII couldn't break 70% once but it did break 60% multiple times.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

ey have we gotten a stupid account bet tis year?
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.

this*
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.

FF7'd

CT's most likely dead, but he was also dead in Crono/Vincent 2. so I'll hold out hope for it.

I thought FF7 would go huge here. too bad I didn't predict it.
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yzzyx

1:00 | 50.51%
2:00 | 52.86%
3:00 | 53.61%
4:00 | 52.06%
5:00 | 52.61%
6:00 | 49.00%
7:00 | 44.46%

This past hour was absolutely brutal to CT. It's always been horrid at 6-7 and gets a lot better as the morning vote progresses, but Mario looks very good right now. I wonder how much CT can swing with the second night vote- it'd be a fitting way for CT to win this after Mario/Crono 2.

Last round was on a weekend, and weekend/weekday trends have diverged far enough at this point that LTTP/FFVI trends may be better in their stead. Based on those....

Current Projection: Super Mario 64 wins with 50.58%.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Mario always has a strong morning vote, regardless of school. CT's only chance to win this is to build a lead from like 11-3. Zelda doesn't have that same morning vote, and FF6 held up way better than you'd expect for some reason.
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yzzyx

I am now praying for CT to come back out of this morning disaster.
*Big Boss Salute*
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CT For Best game ever.

I don't think CT is going to do too much building with the DSV. But it could miraculously stall with the ASV like Crono did to Vincent last year, and it could also come back with the second night vote, assuming Mario has lost his touch over the past 6 years. Coming back on Mario, which has a normally terrible SNV, is a much easier proposition than coming back against FFVII's stellar SNV, as far as the underlying trends go. It will be harder to rally against, probably, but that would be the perfect way to end this match.

Here's a thought (I'm giving into theories I've long rejected, but let me indulge in some wishful thinking): Goldeneye is still going down. Perhaps this is because Goldeneye is more America-centric than Mario 64, and so it will hurt Mario more during the ASV than it's doing now. Conversely, FFVII is stronger in Europe, and won't drive CT down as far during the ASV.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Mario is not Vincent though. we've seen FF7's bad day vote this year. we've also seen Mario 64's awesome one. it will take something truly unusual for CT to be able to hold off Mario 64.
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xyzzy

Kudos to FFVII for recovering from two bleh performances with a stunningly impressive one. This makes tomorrow's match all the more critical, to see what Ocarina can do as well as what takes second place and the possibility of FFVIII and FFX knocking each other out.

On the flip side, Mario 64 and CT look terrible here. Depending on how the ASV goes, Mario 64 is going to look about the same or weaker than what most pegged pre-contest. And since we know how the ASV goes for CT, it is unquestionably going to look godawful. Looks like the previous rounds were all CT and SotN being ass and not Mario 64 being good, how disappointing.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

nah, I still think Mario 64 is okay. Goldeneye is just a tough match for it.
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yzzyx

Finally CT stops the bleeding, this has been a brutal last few hours.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > CT Points: 211/304

Oh boy that Final Fantasy 7 is sure looking like it's in trouble yessir.

CT is screwed but at least it wasn't totally pathetic.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

lol, CT dropped.
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These are my friends, I have there backs, they are the closest thing to blood that I have!!!

Wow FF7, it's finally putting on a champion-esque performance. I thought 40% would be too much for it considering GE got 33% on it last round, and Mario has been on a tear. Very good show from it.

Also 1500? 1000? CT's lead barely hit 600 overnight, and Mario sliced through it like it was nothing, HA! The morning vote isn't even over yet, and Mario still has the ASV to look forward to.

suck it CT fanboyz
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 52 - Bracket: FF7 > CT - Vote: Goldeneye (215/304)

CT has no chance at winning this thing. But I'd say that it has redeemed itself a little from the awful performance last round.

We all knew before this contests that we were going to see a lot of surprises, and SM64 being so strong is one of those.
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.

I don't know how "strong" Mario 64 is just yet. Goldeneye or not, it's still getting nearly doubled by FF7.

It's good, but I still don't 100% buy it being a potential Mario World/Mario 3 killer yet.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?