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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 729

BDawg | Posted 5/27/2009 4:54:13 PM | message detail
It's safe to say anybody who voted for Yoshi's Island in that match was crazy and therefore cannot be predicted.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/27/2009 4:55:27 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #100
Also, tomorrow 3 of the games will be 3D games from the PS/N64 era and 1 will be a 2D game from the SNES era. I've talked about SNES LFF in Link/Crono since 2007, so now seems like a good time to bring it up again.


This didn't help Kirby's Super Star much tbqh
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 5/27/2009 4:56:33 PM | message detail

Are you really comparing WW to OoT?

Brawl and Melee are about to feel the SFF HAMMER when they meet OoT. So much so that they are going to lose to much weaker games that are not near their level.


It's possible, but I don't think so. The Brawl series (and I firmly think Melee is the pinnacle of the series, both gamewise and strength wise) held up to the Mario series very well. I think Melee retains enough of the Brawl votes and I can't see those voters, who backed Brawl against the Mario series abandoning it for Ocarina. Yes a lot, but not enough that it will be embarrassing.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 5/27/2009 5:00:02 PM | message detail
It's safe to say anybody who voted for Yoshi's Island in that match was crazy and therefore cannot be predicted.

I just want to say how proud I am of myself for selecting it to be in the contest.


Seriously though, reading through the last two pages of YI discussion was one of the most logically cool things I think the stats topic has discussed in a looong time. It was actually fun to read through and think about. Yeah stats.



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Meeks54 | Posted 5/27/2009 5:03:09 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #102
This didn't help Kirby's Super Star much tbqh


From: FastFalcon05 | #103

Are you really comparing WW to OoT?

Brawl and Melee are about to feel the SFF HAMMER when they meet OoT. So much so that they are going to lose to much weaker games that are not near their level.


It's possible, but I don't think so. The Brawl series (and I firmly think Melee is the pinnacle of the series, both gamewise and strength wise) held up to the Mario series very well. I think Melee retains enough of the Brawl votes and I can't see those voters, who backed Brawl against the Mario series abandoning it for Ocarina. Yes a lot, but not enough that it will be embarrassing.




You have used this twice, so let me explain why I believe you are wrong here.

Yes, Smash held up very well to Mario. However, Mario has not held up very well to OoT. 76-24. So I don't think it matters much if the Smash series was able to look respectable against Mario, because Mario would not hold up well against OoT.

I think there are only 2 (maybe just one) Nintendo games that would not be completely embarrassed by OoT. 1 is Pokemon RBY, which I am quite confident in, because it fanbase seems so different. The other is ALttP, which I am much less confident on. Everything else ever made by the big N would be squashed like a bug by Oot, the Smash series is no different.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 5/27/2009 5:07:53 PM | message detail
You have used this twice, so let me explain why I believe you are wrong here.

Yes, Smash held up very well to Mario. However, Mario has not held up very well to OoT. 76-24. So I don't think it matters much if the Smash series was able to look respectable against Mario, because Mario would not hold up well against OoT.

I think there are only 2 (maybe just one) Nintendo games that would not be completely embarrassed by OoT. 1 is Pokemon RBY, which I am quite confident in, because it fanbase seems so different. The other is ALttP, which I am much less confident on. Everything else ever made by the big N would be squashed like a bug by Oot, the Smash series is no different.


It's possible I just have too much faith in the series contest as a whole, but I feel like objectively speaking, the Mario series trumps any relevancy the Smash series has in terms of scope. It's just so much bigger and so much more important. I voted for Smash because I am a rabid Smash fan, but that result to me was one of the more shocking we've had in a contest. I expected Smash to get beaten pretty badly, but it did not. I don't underestimate the rabidness of their fanbase.

There's no way any Zelda game holds up well to Ocarina. That's just crazy. And I still don't trust RBY without seeing it in action more. I would take Melee over RBY without thinking, but like I said, I'm not really convinced of its strength.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/27/2009 5:08:58 PM | message detail
This didn't help Kirby's Super Star much tbqh

Considering we've never seen KSS in a match before, I'm not sure what that would show!

I think I feel about as good about CT right now as I did about Crono last year, maybe a bit worse. I feel better than about Crono/Vincent 2007- there was no way to rationalize failing to get 53% on Zero while Vincent put up 56% on Zelda. It probably helps that I got both today's match and yesterday's match right, so I'm not feeling all this Nintendo domination panic- at least not yet.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/27/2009 5:19:07 PM | message detail
SMB/SSB was a month after Solid Snake was revealed. Allow me to show two things that happened between that time and its release:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2564
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3004

Solid Snake jumped through the roof at the time and SSBB became far and away the most anticipated game here. I doubt SSBB didn't benefit against SMB a month after the announcement.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 5:39:48 PM | message detail
True, but you brought up yesterday's match to suggest they wouldn't.

That was kind of a sarcastic pot shot. Honestly, I think Mario 3/Mario World is the exception, not the rule.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/27/2009 5:42:28 PM | message detail
Are people honestly trying to argue for CT standing a chance here? I'm a huge CT fanboy and if it couldn't defeat SM64 with another mario in the match, its not gonna beat SM64 with FF7 in the match.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/27/2009 5:44:48 PM | message detail
Doubt on! Crono lives on our doubts and fears. He will destroy them with the POWER WITHIN. Calling the match for Vincent 1 minute in was a great idea!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 5:53:52 PM | message detail
Mario 64 is the favorite and with good reason, but I still don't think it's in lock status.

You know, I've been wondering...After seeing Mario 3 struggle with Mario World and watching old Square take a big drop, I wonder if this wouldn't explain why Sonic as a character has become so weak as of late. Yeah, Sonic still puts out games, but they're nowhere near what the 2-D games are. As those games become older, Sonic is just becoming weaker even though he's still somewhat relevant.
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BDawg | Posted 5/27/2009 6:06:25 PM | message detail
Well, the games are certainly out there with all the ports and digital downloads and that other way. If kids refuse to play 2-D games then I guess I just have to get shake my cane on my front porch and say "darn kids".
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/27/2009 6:11:37 PM | message detail
Sonic's very lucky that Nintendo has adopted him, or he'd be even less relevant.

Auron, Vincent, and Squall would be huge board favorites over Sonic in any neutral match now, and Tifa/Sora would probably also pick up some very healthy support.
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transients | Posted 5/27/2009 6:12:10 PM | message detail
I feel like FF7's going to shut up all the doom and gloom from people throwing Square under the bus because some old games tanked tonight.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:12:41 PM | message detail
Give me all five of them over Sonic.

Aw yeah
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:15:17 PM | message detail
Fact or fiction time!

FACT or FICTION: FFVII is in third after 5 minutes.
FACT or FICTION: FFVII is in third after 1 hour.
FACT or FICTION: FFVII is behind at least one game after 5 minutes.
FACT or FICTION: FFVII is behind at least one game after 1 hour.
FACT or FICTION: FFVII is behind at least one game after 4 hours.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:15:18 PM | message detail
You know, the funny thing about LA is that it's still getting more on LTTP than DKC or Doom did. Could you imagine how big of a first round upset LTTP > LA would have been, heh?
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/27/2009 6:16:29 PM | message detail
I am feeling pretty good about Mario 64 > FF7. I am even more confident in this upset than my Mario 64 > CT upset last round, actually.

Here are 2 reasons why SM64 > FF7 can happen:

1. FF7 is being overrated here. The problem is that I think we are using this model:

OoT > FF7 >>>>> everything else

when I think this model is more accurate:

OoT >>>> FF7 >> everything else

What has FF7 done to impress, anyway? Let Mario Kart 64 break 30% on you while being SFFed? The same Mario Kart 64 which was exposed to be horribly weak next round? Or maybe getting 47% on an old FPS, the third strongest Old Square game, and a racing game? Yeah, because FPS, Old Square, and racing games have looked great all contest, right?


2. The more important reason is that I feel a bandwagon forming on SM64. Look at the two bandwagons last contest, Snake and Kirby. What do they have in common?

* They both have had impressive performances on opponents they were not supposed to beat. Snake > Cloud, and Kirby > Sonic.

* Their next round opponent was FF7. And both bandwagons succeeded. Snake beat Cloud in the finals, and while Kirby had no chance of beating Cloud, he sure made Sephy look like a complete joke.

In other words, bandwagons form to kick FF7's ass.

Mario 64 has the same advantages this round. It beat Chrono Trigger, a game no one though it could beat. And it is facing FF7 next round. What would be sweeter to the Internet than FF7 not only not winning the contest, but not even winning its division?

FF7 is so screwed.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:20:47 PM | message detail
By the way, after seeing how apparently limited Nintendo LFF is to many of you, what do you think of MGS's round two performance?
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transients | Posted 5/27/2009 6:22:16 PM | message detail
it's time we differentiated between old games and new ones. there's a reason we saw overlap between the newer Nintendo games and not the old ones. the GBC has like three games - LA, G/S and RBY. it's just like the n64 and you saw what happened last time around.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/27/2009 6:24:18 PM | message detail
You forgot metal gear solid for gbc

awesome game right there
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:24:18 PM | message detail
I agree with you. I was just throwing that one out there for the people who seem to think Nintendo LFF is virtually non-existent.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:24:49 PM | message detail
Yes, Nintendo LFF is very real and we've seen it in action for years. Just because SMB3 and SMW, games that get a lot of support from outside the "Nintendo fanbase," didn't kill each other, doesn't mean Nintendo LFF suddenly disappeared.
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paulg235 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:25:58 PM | message detail
If FF7 loses to Mario 64, then we need the FF7 remake like, now. Otherwise, in two years time, Cloud loses to Pikachu.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:26:39 PM | message detail
Man, I really hope FF7 cracks like 50% tomorrow or something.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/27/2009 6:27:24 PM | message detail
ff7 isnt losing to mario 64. only people who think it will are people looking for crazy upsets. It may lose to mario 64 in the board vote but thats it
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:27:29 PM | message detail
Otherwise, in two years time, Cloud loses to Pikachu.

From 20% to Victory: The Pikachu Story
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/27/2009 6:27:38 PM | message detail

From: KleenexTissue50 | #126
Man, I really hope FF7 cracks like 50% tomorrow or something.


That would kill off CT =\
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transients | Posted 5/27/2009 6:27:49 PM | message detail
no kidding. this contest has always been FF7 vs. Nintendo. this isn't news.
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paulg235 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:28:27 PM | message detail
40% or more would be great. 38+% would be good enough too. If it gets less than 35%, OoT wins.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:28:56 PM | message detail
Scratch that, I hope FF7 gets every single vote.
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paulg235 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:30:56 PM | message detail
Speaking of Pikachu; where would you put that rat in terms of contest strength now? I personally think he's now a Top 20 character what with all the upsets he's pulled.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:31:01 PM | message detail
I'm a big FFVII guy, but I think 35%+ would be fine for it. This is a tough fourpack. You're looking at two potential top ten games and a potential top 20-25 game.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/27/2009 6:31:49 PM | message detail
ff7 isnt losing to mario 64. only people who think it will are people looking for crazy upsets. It may lose to mario 64 in the board vote but thats it

That is what everyone said about Mario 64 > CT, is it not?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:32:27 PM | message detail
I personally think he's now a Top 20 character what with all the upsets he's pulled.

Link
Cloud
Sephiroth
Snake
Mario
Crono
Samus
Mega Man
Sonic
Squall
Auron
Vincent
Tifa
Luigi
Bowser
Yoshi
Dante
Sora
Mega Man X
Ganondorf
Zelda

There's 21, so I don't think Pikachu's top 20.
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paulg235 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:32:38 PM | message detail
Scratch that, I hope FF7 gets every single vote.

Bacon then posts a new topic announcing a poll glitch giving FFVII all the votes and that the match will be redone the next day.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/27/2009 6:32:57 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #135
ff7 isnt losing to mario 64. only people who think it will are people looking for crazy upsets. It may lose to mario 64 in the board vote but thats it

That is what everyone said about Mario 64 > CT, is it not?


are you seriously comparing FF7 to CT
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/27/2009 6:33:31 PM | message detail
Also, SM64 > FF7 has five times as much chance of happening as FF7 > CT.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/27/2009 6:33:34 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #136
I personally think he's now a Top 20 character what with all the upsets he's pulled.

Link
Cloud
Sephiroth
Snake
Mario
Crono
Samus
Mega Man
Sonic
Squall
Auron
Vincent
Tifa
Luigi
Bowser
Yoshi
Dante
Sora
Mega Man X
Ganondorf
Zelda

There's 21, so I don't think Pikachu's top 20.


No zack Fair, for shame
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:34:03 PM | message detail
No, it really doesn't.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:34:03 PM | message detail
I stopped after 21. I didn't say that was all.
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MnMZero | Posted 5/27/2009 6:35:12 PM | message detail
Link
Cloud
Sephiroth
Snake
Mario
Crono
Samus
Mega Man
Sonic
Squall
Auron
Vincent
Tifa
Luigi
Bowser
Yoshi
Dante
Sora
Mega Man X
Ganondorf
Zelda

There's 21, so I don't think Pikachu's top 20.


Kirby disrespect
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paulg235 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:36:12 PM | message detail
Yoshi is no way that strong now. 2008 proved it. I could say the same thing to Bowser, because losing to Ryu in Round 2 and losing to Phoenix Wright in the opening hours of last year's R2 match when he once almost defeated Sprite Snake is just flat-out pathetic.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:36:29 PM | message detail
Again, I just stopped after I named 21. I didn't say that was every character I'd take over Pikachu!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:37:00 PM | message detail
Yoshi and Bowser ain't as strong as they once were, but I sure ain't taking Pikachu to beat them either.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/27/2009 6:38:19 PM | message detail
You already have Mudkip nipping at their heels. Pikachu beating Luigi/Bowser/Yoshi isn't really all that strange
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:38:29 PM | message detail
I think its time we took Mega Man off that list.

The Blue Bomber has certainly bombed these past few contests.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 6:39:31 PM | message detail
You already have Mudkip nipping at their heels.

...No, you don't.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/27/2009 6:39:42 PM | message detail
Why in the world would you take MM off that list before Sonic?

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