GameFAQs Contests

Well assuming you consider an "easy" win ~51.5% or more, then it would need at least like, 90%. A Mario game only getting 10% of another Mario game's votes would be quite something X_X
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

I agree with the gentleman with the awesome sig. Nintendo overlap obviously still exists and can be significant, but Square seems to have one-upped it here. That FF4/1 match was brutal, as was the VIII/IX overlap when you think about it. FFVIII and IX combined for only 2.5% more than what IX and Chrono Cross got against Ocarina of Time. It's been big so far, and the only thing that appears relatively safe from it is Kingdom Hearts (not too hard to see why). While I don't think FFVII/CT overlap will be as crippling as inter-series overlap (especially if they're on the same console), I can see it being as bad as whatever Mario 64 and Goldeneye do to each other.

Then again, I'm still expecting Goldeneye to get pretty beat up tonight, so maybe not.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Yeah, we've seen CT-related characters drop for a long time since 2004:

--From giving Mario a 53-47 beating to competing with Vincent
--From maybe beating Sonic to letting Sandbag come back from 2,000+ votes down
--From 48% on Solid Snake to needing "rallying" to beat Axel)

Add to it that SM64DS is a launch-game for the same system CTDS went to and CTDS didn't do particularly well in sales or even here, and SM64 > CT isn't too shocking anymore (though 2004 threw us off on SM64, too, not to mention that SMW2:YI being in their R2 poll is a bit more impressive). It doesn't hurt that we've not seen much Nintendo-LFF, either. Looking at how 2D-Square has done though and knowing FF7's in the match now, it's hard to think GE will throw a big enough wrench in SM64's game-plan to cost it second place.

I'm hoping to see SM64 aim hard for FF7 though. FF7 let MK64 get 30% despite SF64, then let GE get 33% despite SMRPG, MK64 (which got dead last), and removing Suikoden. Now replace MK64 with SM64 and SMRPG with CT; there will only be two "Nintendo" games this time, and FF7's got a Square-classic in the way. If SM64 >> GE, GE doesn't bother SM64, and CT bothers FF7...things could get exciting very quickly.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

I'm expecting mid-40s or more from Mario.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Maybe the Pokemon one, but the only reason tonight's might be big is if Mario 64 holds the lead for the Power Hour (or longer).

Nah, whether Mario 64 or CT is there next round is pretty important. Heck, if Mario 64 puts up a good fight, it could challenge LTTP. Who knows?

Chrono Trigger defeats Mario 64 rather easily if you remove Yoshi's Island from that poll.

You're insane. Sorry. >_>

His logic isn't that insane. If you replace Yoshi's Island with a neutral option, who's going to drop most? Mario 64. Why? Because votes it was getting from Yoshi's Island, it won't be getting anymore. Mario 64 definitely benefited from Yoshi's Island being in the poll.

Now if Yoshi's Island had put up like 15-20%, then I'd agree that Mario 64 probably does better without it. But the fact that it only got 7% means that Mario 64 probably stole a lot of YI votes and benefited as a result. Basically, Mario 64 stole more votes from Yoshi's Island than YI stole from it, and a lot more. Yoshi's Island went from 29.7% on CT to 16% on CT by adding Mario 64. Just because you added a Mario game doesn't mean Mario 64 suffers more than the rest. Add a stronger Mario game like Mario World, and no doubt it suffers because it'll lose as many or more than it gains. With Yoshi's Island, not happening.

I'm trying to make this make as much sense as possible, but Ulti's logic is sound. Whether it's correct or not is a different story.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Let me get this straight.

Yoshi's Island fans who voted for Super Mario 64 would have voted for Chrono Trigger... had Yoshi's Island not been in the poll.

Dumb. You guys do remember what SFF is, right?

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!

These are not entities battling it out. Yoshi's Island does not function as an E-tank. It's not a vessel of energy to be used at Mario 64's discretion.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!

It was sound logic, but I was using it for SMW/MM3 to help explain R2 and look at what happened yesterday -- I didn't hear many people jump on-board for the theory then, either. Also, taking on that theory means you should probably expect SSBB to come down to Earth after smashing SMG in R2, and I don't hear people calling for that just yet. SM64/SMW2:YI could be the exception since those are specifically two SMB-games instead of reaching for other series, but yesterday's made me put that on the back-burner until SM64 bombs. Besides, for being in the SMB-series and coming from the same division, SM64 and SMW2:YI are still as different as can be. How big of an exception could SM64/SMW2:YI's SFF be when compared to SMW/MM3's or SSBB/SMG's?
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BT > Harrich
lol me

I know what you're saying, Leon - that the SFF was so severe, that it was helping Mario 64 rather than hurting it. This theory has been proposed ever since Rikku killed Vaan in our first 2007 match. I simply disagree. Put a neutral fourth in there, and of course Mario's percentage will decrease, but so will CT's. Yes, the relative percentage shifts might be tiny, but I very much doubt Mario starts pulling in a smaller relative percentage after making him the only Nintendo option.

Besides, the way Ulti said it almost seemed like it was in defense of Chrono Trigger, as though replacing YI with nothing would have somehow benefited the Square game. Replace YI with a neutral fourth, and the relative percentages will change a bit, probably in Mario's favor. Remove it altogether and make it a 3way, Mario manages an even easier win. Remove SotN and make it a 1v1, and Mario probably manages an even easier win.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

From: LeonhartFour
His logic isn't that insane. If you replace Yoshi's Island with a neutral option, who's going to drop most? Mario 64. Why? Because votes it was getting from Yoshi's Island, it won't be getting anymore. Mario 64 definitely benefited from Yoshi's Island being in the poll.

Now if Yoshi's Island had put up like 15-20%, then I'd agree that Mario 64 probably does better without it. But the fact that it only got 7% means that Mario 64 probably stole a lot of YI votes and benefited as a result. Basically, Mario 64 stole more votes from Yoshi's Island than YI stole from it, and a lot more. Yoshi's Island went from 29.7% on CT to 16% on CT by adding Mario 64. Just because you added a Mario game doesn't mean Mario 64 suffers more than the rest. Add a stronger Mario game like Mario World, and no doubt it suffers because it'll lose as many or more than it gains. With Yoshi's Island, not happening.

I'm trying to make this make as much sense as possible, but Ulti's logic is sound. Whether it's correct or not is a different story.

Take Yoshi's Island out. Just completely remove it from the poll. How does the subsequent 3-way go?
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Please.

Yoshi's Island fans who voted for Super Mario 64 would have voted for Chrono Trigger... had Yoshi's Island not been in the poll.

Dumb. You guys do remember what SFF is, right?

No. I said if you replace Yoshi's Island with a neutral entry, you'll get more fans who voted for Mario 64 voting for the neutral entry than you will any other game. That's not dumb.
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From: LeonhartFour
No. I said if you replace Yoshi's Island with a neutral entry, you'll get more fans who voted for Mario 64 voting for the neutral entry than you will any other game. That's not dumb.

Take Yoshi's Island out. Just take it out. How do the percentages in that 3 way go?
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Tell me.

Also, taking on that theory means you should probably expect SSBB to come down to Earth after smashing SMG in R2, and I don't hear people calling for that just yet.

Eh, you'd have to get SSBB to get Mario Galaxy down to single digits before I buy into it.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Take Yoshi's Island out. Just take it out. How do the percentages in that 3 way go?

*shrugs*

I'm just defending Ulti's logic.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

From: LeonhartFour
Take Yoshi's Island out. Just take it out. How do the percentages in that 3 way go?

*shrugs*

I'm just defending Ulti's logic.

Having actually spoken to Ulti, that's not his logic. He thinks that YI hurt CT more then Mario 64 because it was on the SNES.

Which is an opinion of his I can't really argue with. I think it's wrong but there's no way to prove it isn't so.
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I think that's insane.

The theory makes sense in a twisted sort of way. But don't people think that GoldenEye will take votes from mario since they are both on the 64. It will be the first 64 game that it has faced this competition.

Bah, now that's just dumb. Sure, you can't "disprove" it, but saying SNES SFF is worse than same series SFF is ridiculous. Heck, that last round match proves it. As I said before, Yoshi's Island goes from 29.7% on CT with no Mario 64 to 16% on CT with Mario 64. Now what in the world happened to SOTN, who knows.

...I think my idea sounds better.
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In removing Yoshi's Island from the poll, vote totals for the other games have to be adjusted. Though it's fair to say that many people wouldn't have voted if not for YI's presence, most of those votes would be allocated towards another game. Super Mario 64 is the most likely destination for a plurality of those votes; I think we can agree that SFF is generally stronger within game of a series than within games of a platform. Therefore, removing YI from the poll would have increased SM64's margin of victory.

Or are you proposing that there is a statistically significant amount of people who only noticed the poll because YI was in it, but then voted for SM64? Think about how illogical that sounds.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!

For what it's worth, CT was also dealing with two other RPGs in R1. The gap SMW2:YI fell between R1 and R2 is probably exaggerated because of that, though who knows: it was a Nintendo RPG and Lufia 2.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Unfortunately, my friend, I don't think many people here will be convinced that CT has any sort of realistic shot. It simply has too much stacked against it.

Mario 64 is the stronger game. This much has been made clear. For CT to advance, Goldeneye needs to hurt Mario significantly more than FFVII will hurt CT. That alone is an extremely debatable point (much of what we've seen points to the opposite happening), but when you consider that CT is #2 in its SFF match while Mario is clearly the #1 Nintendo choice over Goldeneye, things start to look hopeless.

It's actually somewhat similar to that SMW/FF1/FF4/MM3 scenario, although FFVII won't dominate to nearly the extent that Mario World did.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Or are you proposing that there is a statistically significant amount of people who only noticed the poll because YI was in it, but then voted for SM64? Think about how illogical that sounds.

I'm not arguing for three-ways. I'm arguing for fourways here. Yes, if you remove YI, Mario 64 gets the plurality of the votes, but if you replace it with a neutral entry or a non-Mario Nintendo entry (say, Super Metroid), which game drops the most? Probably Mario 64.

That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying CT wins by removing YI. I'm saying CT possibly makes it closer by replacing YI. Mario 64 loses fewer votes by having a game it can pound into virtual nothingness.
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old Square and new Square are two different things. let's not bury new Square because Final Fantasy 4 and 6 aren't looking good. just look at Kefka and Crono's slow decline and then Squall and Auron's slow rise over the years. they're quite exclusive.

the Yoshi's Island stuff is overanalysis and probably not significant in either game's direction.
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xyzzy

the Yoshi's Island stuff is overanalysis and probably not significant in either game's direction.

Probably not, but it's all CT's got to go on, so...It's a small shot and I'm not even saying I fully subscribe to it, but I think there's a chance.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I'll be rooting for CT (voting for Pierce though) since too much Nintendomination kills my bracket and any chance for the last two weeks to be enjoyable, but I just don't see a realistic shot there.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Cmon C-man

Prove yourself!
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-52.jpg

This must've gone up without me knowing.

Voting for James Bond confirmed

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a metal slime appears

I agree. But think about it logically, step-by-step.

Results from the 4-way:

Mario 64 | C:SoTN | CT
40.42% | 14.67% | 37.59%

Take Yoshi's Island out and the 7.33% Yoshi's Island gets gets split between the remaining 3.

Let's be really generous to CT and SNES overlap and say it gets 60% of the Yoshi's Island votes while Mario and SoTN get 30 and 10 each.

Mario 64 | C:SoTN | CT
42.62% | 15.40% | 41.98%

Why would adding a neutral opponent be better for CT at this point? Assuming that perfectly neutral means it doesn't affect the two games at all. They'll both lose percentage and as a result the result would be closer in raw votes cast, but the ratio of votes between Mario and CT stay the same. The only way CT wins that match up is if it gets 38.61% more of the Yoshi's Island votes then Mario 64.

The argument is just broken.
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It does not work.

GoldenEye LFFing Mario 64 confirmed
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Okay, maybe not a neutral opponent, but a Nintendo entry Mario 64 can't SFF that hard, like...Majora's Mask. Majora's Mask will steal more votes from Super Mario 64 than anyone else, right? So CT will end up closer.

So perhaps the idea is if CT can avoid getting SFF hammered and GoldenEye LFFs Mario 64 without getting absolutely pounded (which are possible though not likely), then CT has half a chance.
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My bracket has FFVII > GoldenEye 007 >_>

Anyway I'm not counting out Chrono Trigger tomorrow. It was GoldenEye that did better on OoT than Sm64, and it was in the top 10 we had in 2005, unlike SM64. Not all the N64 support will go to Sm64 in this match.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

I never said Mario 64 isn't the favorite, but there is a very realistic scenario where Chrono Trigger wins tomorrow. It only has to make up 3300 votes, and it had Goldeneye's help this time around. Goldeneye and Ocarina are the two games Mario 64 least wants to share a poll with.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

GE > SM64 based on LoZ:OoT in 2004, sure. That said, SM64 beat CT despite SMW2:YI and CT was worth ~42% on FF7 in 2004. GE only beat SMRPG by a little and SMRPG got ~30% on CT in 2004.

Some things change, and the GE > SM64 comparison is an SFF'd-based one anyway. I wouldn't count on that to hold up.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

I would think SM64 would hate sharing a poll with SMB3/SMW more than Goldeneye!
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BT > Harrich
lol me

I would think SM64 would hate sharing a poll with SMB3/SMW more than Goldeneye!

*looks at yesterday's match*

Are you sure about that?
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/27/2009 6:07:40 PM | #083
I would think SM64 would hate sharing a poll with SMB3/SMW more than Goldeneye!

Not based on yesterday
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

For a chain-reaction possibility I haven't really heard yet...how do people feel about LoZ making the championship? It's got a reasonable enough chance to beat SMB1 and either SMB3 or SMW (I would guess SMB3 due to the NES-overload and SMB3/SMW already being close)...then, if SM64 beats LoZ:LttP, it would be LoZ against SM64 and probably SMW while FF7 drains a lot of votes. That sets LoZ as the only NES/LoZ-rep while two Mario-games representing the epic battle between the 2D/3D-split. If LoZ pulled the miracle there, LoZ:OoT would have the easiest time killing LoZ from what's left on this side of the bracket.

Again, this assumes SM64 upsets LoZ:LttP -- LoZ:LttP would bring a world of hurt to LoZ. If LoZ survived next round and LoZ:LttP is eliminated though, would you give it much of a chance to go to the championship? What if it takes first place next round?
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BT > Harrich
lol me

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: HaRRicH | #086
For a chain-reaction possibility I haven't really heard yet...how do people feel about LoZ making the championship? It's got a reasonable enough chance to beat SMB1 and either SMB3 or SMW (I would guess SMB3 due to the NES-overload and SMB3/SMW already being close)...then, if SM64 beats LoZ:LttP, it would be LoZ against SM64 and probably SMW while FF7 drains a lot of votes. That sets LoZ as the only NES/LoZ-rep while two Mario-games representing the epic battle between the 2D/3D-split. If LoZ pulled the miracle there, LoZ:OoT would have the easiest time killing LoZ from what's left on this side of the bracket.

Again, this assumes SM64 upsets LoZ:LttP -- LoZ:LttP would bring a world of hurt to LoZ. If LoZ survived next round and LoZ:LttP is eliminated though, would you give it much of a chance to go to the championship? What if it takes first place next round?

At that point in time, this contest is over.

I doubt LoZ steals 7 votes from OoT. Honestly, we might see an Adventure like killing. There is no game that could come from the second half of the bracket with OoT that would drag it down near enough. Game over FF VII, this won't be pretty.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???

Interesting, but I still only give this 5% to happen if Sm64 beats Lttp
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

There is no game that could come from the second half of the bracket with OoT that would drag it down near enough.

Melee or Brawl could easily drag it down. I mean, look at what Melee did to WW.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158

If SM64 isn't bothered by SMB3 or SMW first, GE's not going to do **** to it. They're from the same series, representing the 2D-side of Mario, and are much stronger than GE. GE is an aging FPS while SM64 -- much like SMB3 and SMW -- is a platformer that has been ported multiple times -- it's a launch game for both the DS and Virtual Console (not to mention the N64, where GE comes from). SM64 is also porbably backed by respect for bringing in 3D in a big way, and only another Mario title (in fact, probably only SMB1 or SMB3) or LoZ:OoT can really compete for that respect.

I saw yesterday, and that's a big knock against GE as well as Mario-overlap in general. If SMB3 or SMW can't bother SM64, I don't see why GE should. Not that SM64 will necessarily SFF it, but what else is GE going to do?
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BT > Harrich
lol me

From: paulg235 | #090
There is no game that could come from the second half of the bracket with OoT that would drag it down near enough.

Melee or Brawl could easily drag it down. I mean, look at what Melee did to WW.

Are you really comparing WW to OoT?

Brawl and Melee are about to feel the SFF HAMMER when they meet OoT. So much so that they are going to lose to much weaker games that are not near their level.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???

Haha, I like that we could argue LoZ:OoT might still win over FF7 despite LoZ and a SSB-game...oddly. I do like FF7 more than LoZ:OoT though, despite my Nintendo raising!
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BT > Harrich
lol me

If SMB3 or SMW can't bother SM64, I don't see why GE should.

We don't know that they wouldn't, to be fair.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Also, for another small-yet-reasonable upset that we kinda touched upon after D2's impressive showing: can D2 take advantage of FFX/KH LFF? It's the strongest Blizzard rep left and will stand out while MGS2 showed that FFX dropped some. If D2 somehow steals it, that would pretty much allow the winner of MGS/FF8 (sorry Pokemon fans, I just trust LoZ:OoT will be too much for it) to travel on another round before facing some combination of RE4/MGS4/SSBB. I like FF8 > MGS...so if it could beat SSBB despite LoZ:OoT, MGS4 after beating MGS, or RE4 in a pretty fair fight, then we could still see FF8 make the championship, which would really not favor FF7 either.

I still believe FFX > FF8 if they ever have to meet up, but D2 could mess it up thanks to KH and FF8's probably close enough to FFX and has the right circumstances to finish the job.


Haha...if each long-shot I just mentioned happens and the final is FF7/LoZ/LoZ:OoT/FF8, it's going to be a massacre.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

We don't know that they wouldn't, to be fair.

True, but you brought up yesterday's match to suggest they wouldn't. If they wouldn't bother SM64, GE shouldn't either. If they do, I still don't think that necessarily means GE does for the reasons I posted earlier. GE can affect SM64, it's just harder to imagine now and it'll have to be enough to cost SM64 a rematch against CT despite replacing SMW2:YI with FF7.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Are you really comparing WW to OoT?

Brawl and Melee are about to feel the SFF HAMMER when they meet OoT. So much so that they are going to lose to much weaker games that are not near their level.

I'm not saying Melee will SFF OoT to the point that FFX advances over it or something similar to that, I'm just saying that Melee/Brawl could very well score about 40-45% on OoT. Remember Mario/Smash where Smash Bros. overperformed against Mario to score like 40%? Smash Bros isn't a series which gets SFF'ed due to how many fanbases it shares.

I could explain the scenario. OoT>FF8, Melee>FFX, MGS3>TP, and Brawl>MGS4 all occur in Round 3. In Round 4, the FF/MGS fanbase split will help Melee and TP easily advance. In the SF, TP drops out and so does either Melee or Brawl, leading to a LttP*/FFVII/OoT/Brawl final (*used as an example, regardless the fourth game will be a nintendo game).

Just saying, not only is Smash Bros not going to get killed via OoT/GE, but there is a good possible scenario available for Melee/Brawl to make it to the final.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158

I don't think Diablo has the raw power to challenge FFX. Starcraft saw a very opportunistic FF split and couldn't even come close to making good on it. Diablo has to both be a clear cut above Starcraft and has to hope FFX/KH really cripple each other.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Feel free to doubt over the next 5 hours, doubters, it will make CT's victory all the more sweet now that people are dismissing it as dead and hyping Mario 64 to beat FFVII! Although, I'm glad people have finally come around to CT/SM64 doing well on FFVII tomorrow, by the way.

On the Yoshi's Island thing: that logic has been around for a long time (since the Battle Royale in fact, when people speculated that Link acted as a "black hole" for Nintendo votes, and the votes Mario and Samus were getting could be treated as not being from the Ninty fanbase), but it's never made much sense to me at least. At best, replacing YI with a neutral entrant does not change anything. Maybe that does help CT, but it wouldn't fall under LFF or SFF in that case- it'd be some new factor.

However, replacing SOTN with nothing or a truly neutral entrant could (not saying will) help CT. Think about it this way: Mario 64 was getting votes from people who didn't know what CT was. SOTN is not a game you'd be a fan of unless you've played games at least somewhat seriously. Ergo, SOTN voters are more likely to defect to CT. Call it hardcore fanbase LFF (quite distinct from hardcore fanbase factor!).

Whether or not CT pulls off the upset, I expect both CT and SM64 to beat CT's 2004 mark against FFVII. I know I sound as down on FFVII as anyone, but this isn't to say that OOT beats it easily now- OOT is not that far ahead of the pack either. Unlike FFVII, OOT was never that far ahead of the pack, so while it hasn't fallen, it hasn't risen to FFVII 2k4 levels either.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Also, tomorrow 3 of the games will be 3D games from the PS/N64 era and 1 will be a 2D game from the SNES era. I've talked about SNES LFF in Link/Crono since 2007, so now seems like a good time to bring it up again.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.