GameFAQs Contests

THIEF



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Thief! Baggins! We hates it forever!

Uh actually Link is awesome; let's go LTTP!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Getting ready for the next two matches. These could essentially be the biggest matches of the contest to date.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

FF7>Goldeneye>SM64>CT

Who's with me?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

yeah we've got two killer matches coming up. these two and the Brawl one are huge. everything else is a chain reaction from that point.
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter

If Chrono Trigger and Metal Gear Solid pull through I think I can crack the top 50 before round 4.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288

today's match is going to have low votals from europe,it's champions league fever time.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455

Getting ready for the next two matches. These could essentially be the biggest matches of the contest to date.

Maybe the Pokemon one, but the only reason tonight's might be big is if Mario 64 holds the lead for the Power Hour (or longer). And heck, even if Mario 64 does the unthinkable and fights 24 hours for first place, it won't change much in the grand scheme of things - maybe just which Nintendo game FFVII drags for the finals. At this point, you've gotta admit that Chrono Trigger has both feet in the grave and is just about ready to lay down.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

SMW > SMB3

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!

It looks like Link's Awakening is LFFing LttP a bit here, as Super Metroid is doing a bit better on LttP than last round. That just makes CT look worse, given that Yoshi's Island probably had the same sort of effect on Mario 64. CT over Mario 64 would surprise me more than Mario 64 over FFVII at this point.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

From: RPGuy96 | #010
CT over Mario 64 would surprise me more than Mario 64 over FFVII at this point.

As it would any logical human being!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

I think today kinda said it all as far as the contest goes. Most of the results we get from here on shouldn't be too surprising -- spoilers, there will be lots of Nintendo winning.

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

Sounds like someone's bitter that the better game is winning today !!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

The good thing with lots of nintendo winning is that we should have some final matches full of nintendo with like one non nitnendo game taking advantage of it
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

damn you ZELDA

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

Why would SM64 be anywhere close to FFVII? Even on its best year Chrono Trigger only got 41.76% on FFVII.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288

I think Friday's match is the most important for the rest of the contest - if MGS or RBY wins, FFX gets as close to a free pass to the finals as we've seen, which I think would hand Ocarina the championship. If FFVIII wins, I must say I like Melee in Ocarina/FFVIII/Melee/FFX, which probably means that either RE4 or MGS4 makes the championship, giving some hope to FFVII.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

I don't know, the only thing stopping FFX from going to the finals is FFVIII and even then it might not be enough.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288

But yeah, I just scanned the bracket and the sweet sixteen looks like it's gonna be 10 Nintendo games, 3 or 4 Square games, a Metal Gear or two and RE4.

Aw yeah.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

The Nintendo winning orgy will lead to an FF7 victory in the final, leading to more anti FF7 sentiment leading to more Nintendo victory in the following character contest

whooo
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

I dunno. I would think a neutral entry could only help Ocarina -- and MGS4 is probably more likely to hurt FFVII than anything, I would think -- but I also have a hard time seeing OoT/FFVII being all that close 1v1 at this point.

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

Why would SM64 be anywhere close to FFVII? Even on its best year Chrono Trigger only got 41.76% on FFVII.

While I'm pretty hesitant to give into the hype - the last time we hyped Mario up he got smacked down by Seph in the ToC - this year's FFVII is clearly different from the FFVII of the past. It really hasn't looked like an unbeatable killing machine.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

Let's not start getting down on FF7 just because some old Square games are looking bad. FF7 is a whole different beast from those games and it's not going to roll over and let Ocarina win or anything like that.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

While I'm pretty hesitant to give into the hype - the last time we hyped Mario up he got smacked down by Seph in the ToC - this year's FFVII is clearly different from the FFVII of the past. It really hasn't looked like an unbeatable killing machine.

While maybe true I don't see it letting CT coming any closer than it did in 2004. Chrono Trigger dropping in strength was very hyped before the contest, have we forgotten all this?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288

I don't think it's only the old Square games performing poorly. We've kinda made excuses for FFVII up until this point saying it's done 'fine' in its matches or whatever while OoT has been impressive in both of its matches. And then on top of that, we've got once top tier Square games looking pretty lousy. We're calling for Mario 64 maybe being the strongest Mario game, but who knows how much of that is CT falling completely off the map. I think the past couple of rounds have said everything there. FFVII won't be killed or anything, but it probably never contends for first in the final, unless it's super one sided.

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FF7 is a whole different beast from those games and it's not going to roll over and let Ocarina win or anything like that

Well yeah, because the second or third strongest Nintendo game is guaranteed to be there as well. I bet most of the board now thinks Ocarina handles it in a 1v1.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

True, but CT and FFVII probably hurt each other - Square LFF hasn't been huge, I don't think, but it's more noticeable than Nintendo LFF to be sure. If 007 doesn't annoy Mario 64 much and Yoshi's Island did, well, Mario 64 could get a pretty high percentage on FFVII.

We'll see. My Oracle is pretty optimistic for both Mario 64 and CT, it could easily be the case that the opposite is true. I'd expect Mario 64 to put up a pretty good fight in the Power Hour and the day, at least.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

Sounds like unwarranted pessimism to me. FF7 hasn't looked LOCK TO WIN WITH 98% dominant, but it hasn't looked disappointing. Neither has FF8. And FF10 hasn't either, really (who knows what's going on with KH). I think it's a bit too early to start the doom and gloom parade for FF7.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

Official doom and gloom parade start time: 8 hours
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Hey, if Mario 64 makes it look like ass tomorrow I'll gladly eat my words. I don't think there's anything to worry about, though.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

Maybe. We'll see how new Square does this round, but I don't expect to be blown away. Expectin' tonight to be the final nail in the 2k4 coffin, though. FFVII not SFFing CT we'll see how that goes!

we need a bandwagon -- time for the OLD MAN to step it up again

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http://i41.tinypic.com/30djz83.gif

I don't know about FFVIII. That first round performance certainly looked good, but then StarCraft went and got 25% on Ocarina. That really diminished what FFVIII did, if you ask me.

The only Square games that I would say have been truly impressive are KH and KHII.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

I don't think FF7 SFFs CT, but it doesn't need to. Not after it already lost to SM64 when Yoshi's Island was in the poll.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Yes because YI stole so much from SM64.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288

The fact that it still won easily while being stolen from at all is plenty
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Not seeing the problem with StarCraft getting 25% on OoT when FF8 doubled SC the round before. FF8's looking fine in my eyes.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

I suppose 61% is a Kleenex-doubling now?
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

It stole more from Mario than it dude from CT, that's for sure. Remember when the general consensus for that match was somewhere around 60/40 due to YI's influence? Chrono Trigger is one of the flops of the contest. It's up there with Majora's Mask and Mario Galaxy and oh man what is up with GameFAQs and this whole hating great games thing
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Man, close enough !
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 5/27/2009 4:06:51 PM | #033
I don't think FF7 SFFs CT, but it doesn't need to. Not after it already lost to SM64 when Yoshi's Island was in the poll.

Chrono Trigger defeats Mario 64 rather easily if you remove Yoshi's Island from that poll. I honestly believe tomorrow will prove this. Not saying CT has a great chance to win, but of Mario 64 and Chrono Trigger, which game is Yoshi's Island more likely to annoy? More importantly, you guys are really downplaying the effect Goldeneye could have on that poll. There is no possible way it doesn't bother Mario 64.

That said, it's 100% possible for an annoyed, post-Yoshi's Island Mario 64 to beat Chrono Trigger. I don't deny this.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 5/27/2009 4:12:51 PM | #038
It stole more from Mario than it dude from CT, that's for sure.

You're not having a good typing day, are you? <_<
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

And besides GE will hurt SM64 much more than YI.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288

Mario is a dude's dude.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

Majora's Mask is a flop of the contest? I thought it did okay, myself. 39% against MGS with two other quasi-Nintendo games in the poll isn't bad. It would've looked perfectly acceptable if there wasn't a RBY in the way.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

handily Bioshock so easily
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Chrono Trigger defeats Mario 64 rather easily if you remove Yoshi's Island from that poll.

You're insane. Sorry. >_>

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Just saw that one.

Woopsee-daisy, maybe I shouldn't make any lengthy posts today.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

I don't buy for a second that GE hurts SM64 more than FF7 hurts CT, but I've seen a lot of "Nintendo doesn't hurt itself significantly at all!", which is just stupid. GE SFFed the crap out of MK64 just last round, for cryin' out loud.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Chrono Trigger defeats Mario 64 rather easily if you remove Yoshi's Island from that poll.

Assuming SotN gets no votes CT would need 69% of YI's votes between CT/SM64 to tie, the percent only goes up when SotN gets added in and takes its share. You can talk about YI affecting CT more all you want, but it did not cost the game the match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288

From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 5/27/2009 4:16:56 PM | #046
Chrono Trigger defeats Mario 64 rather easily if you remove Yoshi's Island from that poll.

You're insane. Sorry. >_>

You of all people should buy into whatever logic I feel like using!
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid