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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 728

ZFS | Posted 5/26/2009 7:37:34 PM | message detail
I'd agree with everyone else that Ocarina of Time is stronger than FFVII at this point, enough to be a big favorite in a neutral match. Really, unless the other two games in the final are both Nintendo, I don't see much reason not to expect an Ocarina victory.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:39:08 PM | message detail
Looks like the second night vote is going to Mario 3. It's got its biggest lead of the match.
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transients | Posted 5/26/2009 7:39:19 PM | message detail
let's do it again

MGS/FF8/RBY vs. Mario 64/CT/Goldeneye
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:40:20 PM | message detail
Those are probably pretty equal, I'd say.

Mario 64
Chrono Trigger
FFVIII
RBY
MGS
GoldenEye

Something like that...
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 7:40:23 PM | message detail
CT >> FF8
Mario 64 > RBY
MGS > Goldeneye

That adds up to a pretty easy win for FFVII's pack.
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Xuxon | Posted 5/26/2009 7:40:26 PM | message detail
the latter, by a lot
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:40:50 PM | message detail
CT >> FF8

Psh.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 7:43:02 PM | message detail
Would you prefer if I did it this way?

Mario 64
CT
|
RBY
|
FFVIII
|
MGS
Goldeneye
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Xuxon | Posted 5/26/2009 7:43:09 PM | message detail
actually, scratch the "a lot". i'm pretty confident ff7's pack is stronger, but it's hard to say how much.
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/26/2009 7:43:15 PM | message detail
Yeah, I think Ocarina's got the lighter fourpack this time around. CT and Mario 64 are probably much stronger than anything in Ocarina's pack, and 007 could hang with any of them.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:43:45 PM | message detail
I still say "psh."
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transients | Posted 5/26/2009 7:44:11 PM | message detail
I think FF7's pack is tougher too, but it has some advantages there; n64 overlap in its favour and the possibility of beating CT down. Ocarina can only say that in regards to RBY.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/26/2009 7:45:19 PM | message detail
FF7's fourpack is much, much stronger. This is not even a debate.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/26/2009 7:45:39 PM | message detail
MGS/FF8/RBY on the merits, but I'm expecting OoT to overlap significantly with RBY, enough to put CT/Goldeneye/Mario 64 ahead in practice. Of course, if RBY actually goes ahead and advances in that match, I'll have to revise that perception.

At this point, though, FF7 needs a bigger performance than OoT to give people faith in it again. Seeing as how the semifinals/finals are shaping up to be FF7 vs Nintendo that may not matter too much in the long run, but y'know.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/26/2009 7:46:13 PM | message detail
CT > FF8
SM64 > RBY
MGS >= GE

FF7's got the tougher pack, plus I figure CT will bother FF7 more than RBY bothers LoZ:OoT (SMB3/SMW, enough said). I'd expect to see a big difference in numbers between FF7 and LoZ:OoT.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:47:00 PM | message detail
Well, what do you think FFVII gets and what do you think OoT gets?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/26/2009 7:47:49 PM | message detail
I'd say FFVII/CT hurts FFVII a good deal more than Mario 64/007 hurt each other. I could be wrong if CT collapses but I don't expect that, not unless Mario 64 is dangerously close to FFVII.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/26/2009 7:48:02 PM | message detail
I don't think FFVIII/MGS will be far behind SM64/GE in terms of overlap. Both pairs are the #2 and 3 games on their respective consoles. I guess one could argue that SM64 and GE should overlap more just because N64 owners had less to choose from, but they're also extremely different games.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 7:48:36 PM | message detail
I'll guess.....33% for FFVII and 38% for OOT. If FFVII wants to be seen as equal to OOT 1v1, the gap needs to be a bit closer though.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/26/2009 7:48:54 PM | message detail
I will be in complete shock if M64 is close to FF7
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/26/2009 7:49:27 PM | message detail
Ocarina is shooting for 40%+!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:49:37 PM | message detail
The only similarity between FFVIII and MGS is the heavy emphasis on story, honestly.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/26/2009 7:50:00 PM | message detail
Ulti wanted to see my bracket because I've been on the leaderboard so long:

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/my_bracket_may_26th.jpg
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:50:09 PM | message detail
Well, and the fact that Squall and Snake are very similar characters, I suppose.
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transients | Posted 5/26/2009 7:50:34 PM | message detail
we've already seen Goldeneye SFF the hell out of a Nintendo game. MGS/FF8 might have some overlap (it's the reason I'm tentatively backing RBY), but it's got nothing on Goldeneye and Mario 64.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:51:34 PM | message detail
And we've also seen GoldenEye get SFF'd by Ocarina of Time. If Ocarina of Time bothers GoldenEye and Mario 64, what's stopping GoldenEye and Mario 64 from affecting each other?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 7:52:20 PM | message detail

From: ZenOfThunder | Posted: 5/26/2009 10:50:00 PM | #223
Ulti wanted to see my bracket because I've been on the leaderboard so long:

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/my_bracket_may_26th.jpg


I hope you win if I don't, I'll say that much. MGS getting that far would rock face.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:53:16 PM | message detail
MGS has a realistic shot at the finals if that happens (or if MGS4 doesn't make it into the semifinals), but TP getting past Brawl isn't TOO likely at this point.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/26/2009 7:53:29 PM | message detail
There will absolutely be splitting. I'm hoping Mario 64 utilizes that to squash Goldeneye. Like I said before, Nintendo fans have proven to be pretty reliable at stuff like that.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 7:53:40 PM | message detail
There's a pretty big difference between universal games like SMB3/SMW and N64 games like SM64 and Goldeneye. N64 games ARE NOT universal; it was a minority system with very few games. And yeah, we've seen OOT SFF both Mario 64 and Goldeneye pretty hard.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:54:28 PM | message detail
I just don't see Mario 64 "squashing" GoldenEye. I think it's too tough for that. 27% on OoT ain't bad, especially compared to 23%.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 7:55:59 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 5/26/2009 10:53:16 PM | #228
MGS has a realistic shot at the finals if that happens (or if MGS4 doesn't make it into the semifinals), but TP getting past Brawl isn't TOO likely at this point.


I don't think TP can get close to Brawl. That Galaxy blowout was impressive.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 7:56:20 PM | message detail
Agreed on that. If this were round 5, and Mario 64 was getting bandwagoned, it might squash Goldeneye, but we're not yet at that stage of the contest where bandwagoning really comes into play yet, and Goldeneye did better against OOT.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:56:26 PM | message detail
It was impressive, but it told me more about Galaxy than it did about Brawl.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/26/2009 7:56:35 PM | message detail
I'm not using 2004 stats, though. Mario 64 is clearly the stronger Nintendo option, and it's going up against "the big one." I think it'll really galvanize itself some Nintendo support.
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transients | Posted 5/26/2009 7:56:38 PM | message detail
OOT
MGS
Brawl
MGS4

hell yes
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 7:58:12 PM | message detail
Mario 64 is not going to SFF GoldenEye harder than OoT did. Honestly, how much more than 27% do you expect GE to get on OoT? Maybe 33-35%?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/26/2009 7:59:48 PM | message detail
Mario 64 is not going to SFF GoldenEye harder than OoT did

Of course it will.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/26/2009 8:00:50 PM | message detail
Looking at the upcoming match, some may wonder if this match will pull a similar stunt like SMB3 and SMW did.

Will the 2 Zeldas split their power evenly, or will one attempt to subdue the other for its votes?

FF6 and Super Metroid's odd pretty much depends on how the 2 zeldas affect each other. If they split evenly like Mario did, there's no chance on Metroid or FF6 advancing.

If LTTP does start draining LA badly, then who do you think has the better chance to sneak into 2nd, Super Metroid or FF6?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 8:01:06 PM | message detail
Substantially higher than 33-35% without SFF, I think. It just got 33% against FFVII last round with 2 Nintendo games in the poll.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/26/2009 8:01:11 PM | message detail
...Huh.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-52.jpg

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 8:02:09 PM | message detail
LTTP will undoubtedly maim Link's Awakening, this isn't even in question.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 8:02:34 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 5/26/2009 11:01:11 PM | #241
...Huh.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-52.jpg


I'm convinced Bacon lurks this board.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/26/2009 8:02:38 PM | message detail
Pierce Brosnan time

FFVII stands out the least there.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 8:03:03 PM | message detail
Looks good! Mario vs. Crono is always epic, 007 looks good, and I'm glad they used FFVII art for Cloud instead of this awful KH or AC stuff that's dominated his pictures the past few years!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 8:03:05 PM | message detail
All right, KP!

GoldenEye resisting LFF confirmed.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 8:03:39 PM | message detail
I'm glad they used FFVII art for Cloud instead of this awful KH or AC stuff that's dominated his pictures the past few years!

That's kinda not an option there, I'd think.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/26/2009 8:03:55 PM | message detail
Both CT/FF7 and SM64/Goldeneye SFF are overrated. CT has demonstrated in every opportunity which it meets FF7 that it can hold up fairly well. And while Goldeneye is an N64 game, it could not be any more different that SM64. We have already shown that RE4/TP SFF is fairly minimal, and while I do believe SM64/Goldeneye SFF is greater, it is not the huge force that everyone seems to say it is.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/26/2009 8:04:09 PM | message detail
Thanks! I really liked this pic.

Pierce Brosnan to propel Goldeneye>FF7

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 8:04:20 PM | message detail
Yeah, that's true I guess. But I certainly wouldn't put it past Bacon to do it anyway.
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