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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 728

The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/26/2009 10:35:34 PM | message detail
It's not unfair to assume lots of people used 2004 as a basis. I mean there you have FF1 putting up over 40% on Mario 3, at the time the strongest Mario game

If you have FF4 in that match it would mean you probably assume it's stronger than FF1, and combined with SMW being weaker than Mario 3 and the LFF involved with both of them in a match, it's not a bad a pick.

Of course SMW kind of put a stop to that in round 2
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MnMZero | Posted 5/26/2009 10:57:07 PM | message detail
One theory about Nintendo LFF before I head to bed. Don't think it was nearly as prevalent for the old school Nintendo games because they were on consoles that everyone had, and the Nintendo games were the ones that everyone played then. RPGs were pretty niche back then, so it would make sense that games like FF4 and FF1 would suffer. I think Nintendo LFF would show up a bit more in the later gen games, since starting with the N64 we started to have major console splits. Although Nintendo game LFF might still be minimal for the later systems since the attach rates for the major Nintendo games on said systems are so high.

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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 10:59:09 PM | message detail
finally a ff6 cut
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/26/2009 11:14:21 PM | message detail
It's evident that tomorrow's match is a tossup, and I'll just think about it while playing some SSBM. Next, please.

Super Mario Bros. 3 kept about 67.56% of its votes from last round, and about 41.6% of its votes from the round before.
Sonic the Hedgehog kept about 64.64% of its votes from last round, and about 33.44% of its votes from the round before.
Super Mario World kept about 61.49% of its votes from last round, and about 56.67% of its votes from the round before.
Final Fantasy IV kept about 89.11% of its votes from last round, and about 41.79% of its votes from the round before.

Mario 3 seems to have been hurt by Mario World a bit, and the opposite is most certainly true. Final Fantasy IV did really well but either Mario SFF wasn't enough or FFIV overlaps with Nintendo quite a bit, and I'd bank on the latter right now. Sonic 1 also did about average. Everybody except for Mario World has done rather badly in comparison to their round 1 vote totals, but name value and/or presence of options with the same fanbase probably hurt them.

Highest Vote Total - Super Mario Bros.
Lowest Vote Total for a 1st Place Entry - Super Mario Bros. 3
Highest Vote Total for a 2nd Place Entry - The Legend of Zelda
Lowest Vote Total for an Entry Going to the Next Round - Super Mario World
Highest Vote Total for an Eliminated Entry - Final Fantasy IV
Lowest Vote Total for a Third Place Entry- Tetris
Highest Vote Total for a Last Place Entry - Sonic the Hedgehog
Lowest Vote Total - Mega Man 2
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 11:23:05 PM | message detail
Yesterday's result absolutely killed the leaderboard and gurus.

Their loss is my gain!

Seriously, I wasn't even in the 90th percentile before MGS4/Fallout. I'm in the 98th percentile now.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/26/2009 11:24:22 PM | message detail
Heck, this is only the second time all contest I've gotten four matches in a row completely correct. The only other time was the 1995-1997 Division first round.
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ZFS | Posted 5/26/2009 11:25:44 PM | message detail
I'm amazed I'm still in the 99th percentile after the FFIV loss.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/27/2009 12:23:47 AM | message detail
They've stayed in the 1300 lead range for about an hour now. Seems FF6 just wants to stall there all night
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transience | Posted 5/27/2009 2:07:52 AM | message detail
Super Metroid might lose to Link's Awakening here. LA is damn legit if it can beat Super Metroid despite its worst opponent in the poll.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/27/2009 4:04:15 AM | message detail
It feels like a moral victory to me that Super Metroid even got this far.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/27/2009 4:47:06 AM | message detail
FF6 just cut LTTP twice, with the morning vote. Which LA is winning and LTTP is losing while FF6 stays about constant. What is going on here?
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transience | Posted 5/27/2009 4:48:11 AM | message detail
the last few days have been funny in the morning. I think the morning vote is diluted because schools are slowly getting out.

LA has an amazing day vote though. I think GBC games are just amazing then, considering what G/S did against Metal Gear Solid.
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xyzzy
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/27/2009 5:22:13 AM | message detail
Off course (I had to talk like Cloud Strife), Game Boy games are the perfect games for kids! That's why they do so well with the ASV! Not to mention one ad for Link's Awakening was a rap.

Rap = Awesome ASV
Failure to Sell Even a Million Copies Despite Being Nintendo = Horrible ASV
Failure to Sell Well Until PS1 Days = Worse ASV

I find it funny that Super Mario Kart and Donkey Kong Country sold over eight times as many copies as Super Metroid and still got crushed by it.
TheRewster | Posted 5/27/2009 5:23:52 AM | message detail
Damn, Super Metroid and Link's Awakening are getting slaughtered out there. ;____;
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/27/2009 5:28:24 AM | message detail
It's funny, because FF6 getting what it now has is about where I put it on LttP before the contest. Is it actually weaker, or is LA not hurting LttP at all?
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/27/2009 5:39:47 AM | message detail
Currently, I have 243 points for predictions and 183 in my bracket. If current trends continue, I will have 191 in the latter and 259 in the former. My prediction score would be at the top of the leaderboard by now! Bah.

Tomorrow, ALL FOUR games deserve to win the contest! And one of them is the overarching favorite to win the contest! Too bad only one other game will make it out.

Not only does Final Fantasy VII have an easy win here, it's going to crush the competition. It has STF for being the only game not on a Nintendo console, and whatnot. Now I think the FF7/CT overlap is slightly less than SM64/GoldenEye, but that's just not enough when you consider that Mario 64 won convincingly last round DESPITE Yoshi's Island hurting it. Then again, maybe Yoshi's Island hurt Chrono Trigger too? That could account for its horrid round 1 performance, I guess, but that's a shady theory at best. And Yoshi's Island most certainly hurt Mario 64 more. If Chrono Trigger overlapped with Symphony of the Night, then it would make sense if it advanced here, since we haven't really seen much FF7/CT SFF in the past (and no last contest's finals don't count, Crono was LPF'd all the way). Let's not forget the fact that Chrono Trigger has some STF for being the only 2d game in the match! (wait, if that was a factor then are we about to see Pokemon and Diablo II impress?) Nah, I'm sticking with the common opinion that Mario 64 will take 2nd place, and GoldenEye will be dead last. I'm also pegging for Final Fantasy VII for 40% tomorrow (not very good with percents here!), and, well, you get the point. I also forgot to mention that Nintendo has been looking much better than old Square has so far this round, so...

Prediction: Final Fantasy VII > Super Mario 64
Final Fantasy VII - 40%, GoldenEye - 15%, Super Mario 64 - 23%, Chrono Trigger - 22%
Bracket: Final Fantasy VII > Chrono Trigger
Favorites: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64
Favorites Bracket: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64
charmander6000 | Posted 5/27/2009 6:30:14 AM | message detail
Yeah yesterday was bad for the non SMB3 > SMW brackets. I went from 140 to 98 in the guru and I shot up from low 95% to 97.6%. Looking at the guru I'll probably break 98% today and the rest of this round is looking good (FFVII > CT and OoT > MGS are the only ones I'm nervous about).
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/27/2009 7:10:27 AM | message detail
*wakes up*

what the... FF6 got a better morning vote than LttP? Bah, who cares, it makes my prediction look better.
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Today's prediction: LttP 36.89% - Mog 34.62% - Metroid 15.78% - Awakening 12.71%
Status:
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/27/2009 7:32:17 AM | message detail
oh. never mind, last round FF6 got a decent morning vote too, but lost 1.5% in the ASV

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Today's prediction: LttP 36.89% - Mog 34.62% - Metroid 15.78% - Awakening 12.71%
Status:
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 8:40:05 AM | message detail
Yeah, we're slowly phasing into out-of-school mode, though some schools aren't out yet, so the trends are kinda off a bit.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/27/2009 8:49:52 AM | message detail
So is anyone still entertaining FFVI in the Top 15 ideas? I'm not sure it makes the Top 20 now, but I could be out of the loop.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/27/2009 8:51:33 AM | message detail
I don't see why it wouldn't be at least in the top 20. It's not what it used to be, but there's no doubt in my mind that it would still wipe the floor with most of the games in this bracket.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 8:54:58 AM | message detail
Name 20 games that beat FFVI.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/27/2009 9:00:45 AM | message detail
OoT
FF7
LTTP
Chrono Trigger
FFX
FFVIII
SMW
SMB3
SM64
RBY
MGS
Melee
Brawl

Maybes:
GS
Twilight Princess
RE4
KHII
KH
Goldeneye
MGS4

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/27/2009 9:02:54 AM | message detail
I'm analyzing the rest of my bracket picks.

Final Fantasy VII > Chrono Trigger

When I did this, I was thinking this was easily going to go FF7 > CT > GE007 > SM64. Now, though...

Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid

I have MGS making the finals, and so far it doesn't even look like it will survive this round.

Halo > Super Smash Bros. Melee

Wow, I can get four points at most for this match. I thought "according to the x-stats and the list Halo and SSBM are close in strength, but Halo benefits from this format and SSBM probably got weaker due to its sequel being released." Oops.

Resident Evil 4 > Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas

Well, this whole bracket was based upon the list's placements. For example, I had Half-Life 2 winning its round 1 match because I thought Twilight Princess would be weaker than Wind Waker (oops), which was 20 places below HL2 on the list, and I originally had Half-Life 2 even advancing out of the division before I realised that it would easily lose to San Andreas, which would lose to RE4 because of being weakened due to its sequel. OOPS.

Metal Gear Solid 4 > Super Smash Bros. Brawl

Uhm, I had Mario Galaxy in this match, and I thought that Brawl and Galaxy would split enough for MGS4 to win.

Super Mario Bros. 3 > The Legend of Zelda

I had Street Fighter II in this match, and I thought Mario 1 would get SFFd into the water and Zelda I would advance. Oops.

Final Fantasy VII > Zelda: A Link to the Past

Ironically, this is looking locked right now.

Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid

Does MGS even get here?

Super Smash Bros. Brawl > Resident Evil 4

I assumed that MGS4 would be slightly stronger than MGS3, which, according to the list, wouldn't be enough to beat action gaming's biggest rollercoaster ride. Meanwhile, SSBM > RE4 according to the list, and SSBB > SSBM, right?

Final Fantasy VII > Zelda: A Link to the Past

Looking good right now!

Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid

I might have the wrong MGS getting to the finals.

Final Fantasy VII > Zelda: Ocarina of Time

Looking good right now!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/27/2009 9:06:24 AM | message detail
Ocarina
LttP
Twilight Princess
FFVII
FFVIII
FFX
Mario 3
Mario World
Mario 64
Melee
Brawl
Chrono Trigger
Pokemon RBY
RE4
KH
KHII
Goldeneye
MGS

Those are 18 I'd feel pretty good about, and that's not counting oldies like the original Mario and Zelda games. Something broad like Super Mario Kart might give it a go in a 1v1 environment, and I honestly think even LA can make things interesting in a traditional match. I'd still give it Top 20 status right now (near the bottom), but there's just too much competition to go any higher. Just imagine how weak these old Square games will be if we wait another few years for the next game contest.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/27/2009 10:29:34 AM | message detail
FF6 will end up not looking so bad after all.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/27/2009 10:31:18 AM | message detail
Define 'not so bad'. It's still doing worse on LttP than it did in '04 even though two extra Nintendo games are in the poll.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/27/2009 10:31:51 AM | message detail
It's also undoubtedly getting hurt by two other SNES games being there.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/27/2009 10:37:19 AM | message detail
Super Metroid is the only other SNES game in the poll! You can't count LttP because that's what we're comparing it against.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 10:43:27 AM | message detail
Getting hurt by Super Metroid more than LTTP is? I don't think so. This is bad, no matter how you slice it.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/27/2009 10:45:45 AM | message detail
Even if LttP 60/40 FFVI without being dragged down it should still be enough to hit the top 20, LttP is still one of the strongest games here.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288
BDawg | Posted 5/27/2009 10:46:37 AM | message detail
Yeah I'm starting to lean towards old FF games getting hurt by Nintendo. There's only so weak they could've suddenly gotten. Obviously not as bad as same series (ouch LA) but bad enough so they can't just stand out and go crazy.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/27/2009 10:47:25 AM | message detail
Yeah, we do have to keep in mind that LttP is probably the third strongest game on the site at this point in time.

FF6 isn't doing that great here, but it's still a head above most.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
transience | Posted 5/27/2009 10:54:21 AM | message detail
meh, neither of these games look that good.
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xyzzy
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/27/2009 10:57:12 AM | message detail

From: BDawg | Posted: 5/27/2009 1:46:37 PM | #483
Yeah I'm starting to lean towards old FF games getting hurt by Nintendo.


I've always felt this to a degree. What system were those games on again?

Looking back, it was dumb of me to think Contra could get past Metroid and the like. Assuming Metroid would get SFFd by Zelda, but not Contra = stupid Ulti.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/27/2009 10:58:46 AM | message detail
Looking back, it was dumb of me to think Contra could get past Metroid and the like. Assuming Metroid would get SFFd by Zelda, but not Contra = stupid Ulti.

You'd think Final Fantasy would have done the same thing back in 2004.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288
voltch | Posted 5/27/2009 10:59:15 AM | message detail
really,after what SM64 did on chrono I'm tempted to say it's indirectly stronger but in a match LttP would pull a freakin mario on mario.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
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Yesmar | Posted 5/27/2009 11:01:21 AM | message detail
I'm not saying that Old School Square/Nintendo don't have an overlap, but how many current GameFAQS goers actually played them on the SNES, instead of through emulation? Especially Chrono Trigger.

Although, Chrono Trigger being so weak in Europe does imply that emulation isn't as big for it as we might have thought. Hmmm.....
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/27/2009 11:03:14 AM | message detail
Chrono Trigger/Super Mario World match now makes me think there is some SFF going on between SNES games.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/27/2009 11:03:39 AM | message detail
I wonder how old games like Contra would perform against newer games.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288
Yesmar | Posted 5/27/2009 11:07:22 AM | message detail
The only problem with Same Console SFF is how come it didn't happen in:

SMB3/Metal Gear
SMB3/Final Fantasy
SMB3/Zelda
SMRPG/Street Fighter II
LttP/FFVI
Wind Waker/Metroid Prime (I guess it could have happened a little)
SMB/Zelda

For starters.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
charmander6000 | Posted 5/27/2009 11:11:07 AM | message detail
The only problem with Same Console SFF is how come it didn't happen in:

I can drag a list of previous character battles where no SFF occured when there should have been. It's called resisting and LFF.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288
Yesmar | Posted 5/27/2009 11:14:45 AM | message detail
I can drag a list of previous character battles where no SFF occured when there should have been. It's called resisting and LFF.

Valid point. There could have been LFF in all of these matches.

However, I just can't comprehend how Chrono Trigger (a game where less than half the voters played it on the SNES) can SFF Super Mario World, but Super Mario Bros. 3 is unable to do the same to LoZ.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
charmander6000 | Posted 5/27/2009 11:17:37 AM | message detail
However, I just can't comprehend how Chrono Trigger (a game where less than half the voters played it on the SNES) can SFF Super Mario World, but Super Mario Bros. 3 is unable to do the same to LoZ.

I'm with you on that match, Mario is pretty good at resisting non-Zelda SFF.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > FFVI Points: 195/288
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 11:31:41 AM | message detail
I'm not sure CT SFF'd Mario World, to be honest. This site's entire demographic changed in 2005, for whatever the reason. That could have been what caused the shift. Remember, Mario in particular received a very large boost.
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transience | Posted 5/27/2009 11:34:00 AM | message detail
Mario skyrockets, Crono drops off the face of the earth, and you're calling for CT/Mario World SFF? really?
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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2009 11:36:10 AM | message detail
We already realized that looking for SFF where there was none in the original Games Contest was a bad idea. Why are we still doing it?
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transience | Posted 5/27/2009 11:36:34 AM | message detail
to explain bad picks, I presume.
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xyzzy
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transience | Posted 5/27/2009 11:36:40 AM | message detail
Super Metroid **** yeah
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xyzzy