GameFAQs Contests

Ulti and I have buried the hatchet.

Also

IT'S FREAKIN MARIO....AGAIN!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
---
DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???

Despite my awful first two rounds, my bracket could turn it around here at the end.

Mario 1 > Zelda 1
Mario 3 > Mario World
LTTP > FFVI
FFVII > CT
OoT > FFVIII
FFX > SSBM (Whoops)
TP > RE4
Brawl > MGS4
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

It really IS freaking Mario. I'm officially lumping FF4 > Mario with Samus > Mario.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Hmmm...

*inspects closely through monocle*

ZVARRI! Once again, the truth has been elegantly revealed to me. When you were in grade school, you always received the same comment on your report card: "Has a tendency to exaggerate and jump to conclusions."

Am I not correct?
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Time for this one.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

From: LeonhartFour | #004
Hmmm...

*inspects closely through monocle*

ZVARRI! Once again, the truth has been elegantly revealed to me. When you were in grade school, you always received the same comment on your report card: "Has a tendency to exaggerate and jump to conclusions."

Am I not correct?

wtf was this lol
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

You know old/new square have never really SFF/LFF each other so why is FFVII/CT going to be any different?
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272

Going on last match's trends, Mario World and Mario 3 both slightly rose from here until the end, with Mario World rising a tiny bit more overall. Mario 3 might be okay if it survives the after school vote, but who knows where rallies would go.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

2 straight gains for smb3 oh gawd
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Hasn't Crono got about 12% in four way polls before?
---
(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

Two stalls by Mario 3 here. This is still either game's, uhh...game.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Hasn't Crono got about 12% in four way polls before?

And Snake has, too. What's your point?
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3306&num=4

Well from that it's pretty obvious there's an overlap between Crono and Cloud. Or new and old Square.
---
Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

So who was Snake overlapping with?
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Ulti, not every pick the stats topic or board gets wrong can be related to Samus > Mario. Besides, honestly, I think most of us were more sure on Samus beating Mario than we were about FF2/4 advancing in today's situation because we haven't had a BGE in the past five years and this format is just too hard to REALLY predict right.
---
BT > Harrich
lol me

Snake's overlap with Link is hardly as direct as two same company, same genre characters. Unless you think Snake would beat Cloud?
---
(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

I don't understand why Samus > Mario was such a stupid pick. I mean in 2004 she performed better than Mario in every way possible.

You could say common sense, but common sense would tell you Crono wouldn't beat half the things he goes up against.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272

Snake's overlap with Link is hardly as direct as two same company, same genre characters. Unless you think Snake would beat Cloud?

He beat him twice, but that's not the point. The exact same thing that happened to Snake happened to Crono. It's not overlap. It's facing the three strongest entrants in the contest.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

You think there's zero overlap between two square characters in the same genre? really?
---
(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

Name an instance other than the finals where FFVII and CT overlapped.

Go ahead. I'm waiting.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I have a better question

name one instance other then the finals ff7 and ct actually faced eachother

I can't think of one
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

outside of the finals last year where it was an obvious last place for crono anyway
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Crono/Vincent?
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272

if you're gonna call people on stupid picks and invoke Samus > Mario, you need to do it, y'know, before the match. anyone can sound smart after the fact.
---
xyzzy

From: LeonhartFour | #020
Name an instance other than the finals where FFVII and CT overlapped.

Go ahead. I'm waiting.

Do you actually believe there's no overlap or is this just a "I believe it but you can't prove it AHA HA HA HA I AM STATS MAN" kind of thing?


---
Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

huh, wtf. That one completly escaped my mind for some reason ><
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

I have a better question

name one instance other then the finals ff7 and ct actually faced eachother

I can't think of one

How characters perform against one another is pretty indicative of how the games would do.

FFVII/CT
Crono vs. Vincent (thrice)
Aeris vs. Marle

Nothing. Even Crono/Zidane and Crono/Auron essentially turned up nothing.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Do you actually believe there's no overlap or is this just a "I believe it but you can't prove it AHA HA HA HA I AM STATS MAN" kind of thing?

I believe there's overlap because nearly every game has overlap. I don't believe the overlap will disproportionately affect CT, and you can't prove it will. The evidence doesn't exist because there is none.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I think it's very possible for Mario 64 to put up 30% in two days, which would certainly land it much closer to FFVII.
---
Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

From: LeonhartFour | #028
The evidence doesn't exist because there is none.

oh ok, we'll resume this discussion tomorrow when the evidence arrives.
---
Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

So you think FFVII and Mario 64 combined can get 60%+ of the vote? Hmmm...I think that requires CT getting killed, which I don't expect.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

oh ok, we'll resume this discussion tomorrow when the evidence arrives.

What evidence will there be in FFVI/LTTP/LA/SM...?

Heh.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

SMW is slowing down.
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Oh, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It doesn't really bother me because I've been wrong more than just about anyone in this topic. Heck, I'm wrong right now as I watch Mario World try to make a comeback on Mario 3. I just think people are treating FFVII > Mario 64 as if it's a lock, and there's plenty of reason to think it's not.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

We're all wrong quite a bit, tbqh >_>
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

WRONG DAY. You know what I mean.
---
(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

Goldeneye could be killed too -- if five years allowed SMB3 and SMW to even out despite their performances against CT, SM64 to beat CT, and games not from Nintendo/Square/big franchises have failed to really impress...I mean, hey, who knows. They're the only games in that poll that share a system and GE's a N64-exclusive that hasn't aged as well for people as it would like.

CT could be hurt bad too though, that match is all kinds of funky.
---
BT > Harrich
lol me

SMB3 is stallin' a bit too much for my liking.
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Ran out of fuel all of the sudden? Psh, boring
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

So you think FFVII and Mario 64 combined can get 60%+ of the vote?

Yep, and quite easily at that. Mario 64 gave CT an unchallenged whoopin' in what was seen as a 1v1 match with two distractions (one glance at SotN and YI's percentages confirm this). I think the next match will follow that same general pattern, only this time, CT won't be in that 1v1 match. Do I expect it to get completely buried? No (I'd expect that from Goldeneye if anything), but I do think it'll get hurt. Remember that FFVII still put up a healthy 58% on CT in 2004, and now that Crono's game has clearly fallen, I don't see why VII can't easily break 60%, especially if Mario comes on strong.

Something like a 34/30/22/14 split seems pretty plausible.
---
Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

ran out of fool
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Last hour SMB3 got 49.12% of the votes. Using the past hour SMW will take the lead at 23:05. Using the past half hour SMW will take the lead at 21:40 during LttP/SM/FFVI/LA.

>_>
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272

From: charmander6000 | #043
Last hour SMB3 got 49.12% of the votes. Using the past hour SMW will take the lead at 23:05. Using the past half hour SMW will take the lead at 21:40 during LttP/SM/FFVI/LA.

>_>

ruh oh
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

if Mario 64 can get that close to FF7 with Goldeneye in the poll, OOT can beat it easily with LTTP in the poll.
---
xyzzy

there we go
---
http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Yeah I have FFVII 60/40ing SM64...
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272

From: transients | #045
if Mario 64 can get that close to FF7 with Goldeneye in the poll, OOT can beat it easily with LTTP in the poll.

Who knows, that might happen. I do think FFVII/CT will overlap, which is why I think Mario and GE can combine into the 40s. If you combine that with a Goldeneye burial right, then Mario can indeed be competitive. Ocarina's problem is that FFVII will absolutely be taking a strong Nintendo game into the finals with it, whereas there's no guarantee that Ocarina will be taking a Square game.
---
Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/26/2009 4:39:19 PM | #015
Ulti, not every pick the stats topic or board gets wrong can be related to Samus > Mario. Besides, honestly, I think most of us were more sure on Samus beating Mario than we were about FF2/4 advancing in today's situation because we haven't had a BGE in the past five years and this format is just too hard to REALLY predict right.

I didn't break my promise. I said I was LUMPING today with Samus > Mario ;p
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

I didn't say it was impossible.. I just said that if that happens, FF7 is screwed. hell, if that happens I'd look at OOT/FF7/MGS4/LTTP as being a tossup.
---
xyzzy