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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 727

charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 5:29:41 AM | message detail
Right now, based on current results (may chance) the favorite has to be Zelda > SMW. Take out Sonic and FF4 and replace them with two other high profile NES games, and theres no doubt in my mind that SMB3 loses enough votes to lose it to SMW. I mean at this point they're only 200 votes apart anyway

I think the barrier between NES/SNES games is very small considering the age of all of them. Still with only 200 votes anything can happen.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 5:32:06 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1649&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

I'm not sure how reliable 5 year old trends are, but SMB3 lost the asv barely to Final Fantasy.
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transience | Posted 5/26/2009 5:32:26 AM | message detail
I like Mario 3.. but this really shouldn't be this close. Mario 3 just hasn't looked that great when you consider how good other Mario games have done.

next round could be Zelda 1 > Mario World. find me somebody that bracketed that one.
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yzzyx
transience | Posted 5/26/2009 5:32:47 AM | message detail
if you're gonna go off old matches, compare the two to Chrono Trigger.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 5:32:56 AM | message detail
200 votes is well within the ability of random variation to change.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 5:34:30 AM | message detail
SMB3 is really pulling away here now though. 50 votes last 2 updates. SMW needs to keep it really close if it wants a chance.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 5:36:36 AM | message detail
next round could be Zelda 1 > Mario World. find me somebody that bracketed that one.

Somdude and GrapefruitKing
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
transience | Posted 5/26/2009 5:39:33 AM | message detail
this match isn't going to have trends. I think this'll be like Super Metroid and Mario Kart.

if this is close, LUE wins the poll. there's no doubt about it.
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yzzyx
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 5:40:18 AM | message detail
Who does LUE prefer?
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 5:42:41 AM | message detail
Who does LUE prefer?

LUEshi
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 5:58:10 AM | message detail
SMB3 has this, and I'm off
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/26/2009 6:03:05 AM | message detail
I don't see how LoZ can come in second next round, the gap is too small.

If FF4 can't take advantage of the Mario split to at least get second, there's no way Zelda will do it next round either. Not to mention Zelda will be getting hurt by SFF anyways.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 6:04:01 AM | message detail
Time | SMB3
1:00 | 51.37%
2:00 | 51.50%
3:00 | 50.68%
4:00 | 48.31%
5:00 | 48.22%
6:00 | 49.88%
7:00 | 49.02%
8:00 | 51.07%
9:00 | 51.43%

Doing pretty well during the morning.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
Julian_Caesar | Posted 5/26/2009 6:05:30 AM | message detail
find me somebody who bracketed that one.

Zelda I
SMB 3

Does that count?

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 6:07:23 AM | message detail
FFIV is also weak.

In other news FFIV is doing worse on SMB3 than FF did in 2004.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
transience | Posted 5/26/2009 6:08:17 AM | message detail
no, because I have that.

those two are nuts. and maybe right.
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yzzyx
charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 6:08:44 AM | message detail
Zelda I
SMB 3

Does that count?


He was talking about Legend of Zelda > Super Mario World, only two people in the guru contest has that.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/26/2009 6:30:52 AM | message detail
lol FF4
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Final_Rocker99 | Posted 5/26/2009 7:12:53 AM | message detail
Top 10 after analysing the contest
01. Final Fantasy VII - Still believe the fanboys will pull it through... FFX can screw it though
02. LoZ: Ocarina of Time - If LttP makes it to the final.. OoT is gonna get thrashed by FFVII
03. LoZ: A Link to the Past
04. Super Mario World - It's gonna get stronger than SMB3 by next round trust me
05. Super Mario Bros 3 - Weaker than it was in '04 and possibly weaker than 64
06. Super Mario 64
07. Final Fantasy X - Hugely SFFed by KH could net them an early exit... as a individual it can definitely beat SSBM
08. Super Smash Bros Melee
09. Chrono Trigger - Worst slip up ever and one I'm quite proud of... CT making it to the final in '04 was blasphemy
10. Super Mario Bros - Could even win the contest just like L-Block did

If I had to pick over FFVII and OoT... I'd say FFVII deserves to win it much more than OoT

The final would be

SMW/LttP/FFVII/OoT

FFVII wins hands down

but in a one on one contest FFVII would probably win 51-49
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/26/2009 7:14:13 AM | message detail
Except that final is impossible.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/26/2009 7:21:42 AM | message detail
@Luster Soldier: Yeah, that's exactly the point I was making.

And I think Mario 1 will barely edge out Mario World. The game won't collapse when facing later competition. I mean, on the list Final Fantasy probably ended up so low because it had to deal with other FF titles; it's much stronger than its placement on the list indicates. Mario 1 on the other hand ended up at 22nd; higher than even Super Mario World and Super Metroid. Plus, well, the Mario games all have something special about themselves that prevents them from being called rehashes; that's displayed nicely in today's match. I voted for Mario 3, but Mario World doesn't deserve to get SFFd, and thankfully its fans know that.

Next contest, can the Metroid games please avoid facing other Nintendo titles in the first few rounds please? That was my biggest wish for the contest before I saw the bracket, and, well, I didn't like it. It was at least nice to see Super Metroid in round 3, but seeing Metroid Prime out in round 1 didn't make me feel very good, to say the least. Not to mention that I would've taken out Paper Mario and placed ICO in instead. It would've also been better if Paper Mario was put in Halo's match and one of the games from Halo's match (any of them, even Halo itself) placed itself in Paper Mario's spot, because then we would've gotten to find out Metroid Prime's and Paper Mario's true strengths. Instead both games hurt each other enough to cost a chance at advancing. Boo.

Here's a somewhat good set up for Division 2001-2003.

Final Fantasy X vs. Metal Gear Solid 2 vs. Silent Hill 2 vs. Morrowind
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Kingdom Hearts vs. Metroid Prime vs. Halo
Diablo II vs. Grand Theft Auto III vs. Paper Mario vs. Knights of the Old Republic
Disgaea vs. ICO vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Zelda: Wind Waker

I honestly doubt that ICO would've been as fodderific as Fire Emblem or Golden Sun. Ideal set up for Division 2007-2009:

Grand Theft Auto IV vs. LittleBigPlanet vs. Persona 4 vs. Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Call of Duty 4 vs. Mass Effect vs. Super Mario Galaxy vs. Team Fortress 2
BioShock vs.Pokemon Diamond/Pearl vs. Metal Gear Solid 4 vs. Portal
Fallout 3 vs. Halo 3 vs. Left 4 Dead vs. Mario Kart Wii

This way, LBP would be free of SFF and we would get to see whether Mass Effect was truly WRPG SFFd and whether Mario Galaxy was Nintendo LFFd. And Pokemon vs. two FPSs at a time like that would be fun to predict, methinks. Not to mention Mario Kart Wii.
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/26/2009 7:22:36 AM | message detail
Super Mario Bros. is going to look so pathetic next round it will make your face explode.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 7:50:50 AM | message detail
Can't be as bad as Link's Awakening tomorrow.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/26/2009 7:52:06 AM | message detail
Link's Awakening's gonna look pretty bad, but Mario's still gonna look worse.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Final_Rocker99 | Posted 5/26/2009 8:04:47 AM | message detail
Yeah bay bay... SMW is finally gonna beat SMB3... I believe SMW is still gonna win this match... seriously this is one of the few matches in which the winner deserved to win the match... still waiting for SMW to take over though
charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 8:07:31 AM | message detail
It's not looking good for Super Mario World, even if the ASV slightly favours it Super Mario Bros. 3 may have a big enough lead by that time.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
xp1337 | Posted 5/26/2009 8:19:57 AM | message detail
SMW/LttP/FFVII/OoT

OoT wins its half of the bracket so badly that it's the only one that advances from it and the other side has to bring in a 3rd game to balance out the finals?

...I can get behind this.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 8:22:17 AM | message detail
What possible logic places Zelda 1 next round? You're asking it to resist SFF from two of the site's biggest Mario games?
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xp1337 | Posted 5/26/2009 8:23:39 AM | message detail
What possible logic places Zelda 1 next round? You're asking it to resist SFF from two of the site's biggest Mario games?

I think the hope is that the Mario games LFF themselves more than they do Zelda.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 8:23:39 AM | message detail

From: transience | Posted: 5/26/2009 8:39:33 AM | #358
this match isn't going to have trends. I think this'll be like Super Metroid and Mario Kart.

if this is close, LUE wins the poll. there's no doubt about it.


LUE is completely irrelevant. It's all about LL these days.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/26/2009 8:24:57 AM | message detail
Yeah, I don't think LUE really cares about the poll results, even when it involves SMW.
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SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 8:24:58 AM | message detail

From: xp1337 | Posted: 5/26/2009 11:23:39 AM | #379
What possible logic places Zelda 1 next round? You're asking it to resist SFF from two of the site's biggest Mario games?

I think the hope is that the Mario games LFF themselves more than they do Zelda.


I'd seriously put my account on Zelda getting hammered by SFF and competing for last place. It makes about as much sense as FF4 having a chance to place today did.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/26/2009 8:26:05 AM | message detail
Yeah, after seeing Mario 3 and Mario World so close I'd wager we see the same result next round.

Which means LttP guaranteed for the finals baby oh yes
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Lucid Faia | Posted 5/26/2009 8:27:20 AM | message detail
I just want to say - again - that I am delighted with SMW's performance.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 8:28:17 AM | message detail
I kind of have to agree. If SMB3/SMW can still 60/40 FFIV I don't see LoZ holding up, but with my bracket on the line I can still hope.

Also LoZ won't get last SMB will.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
Lucid Faia | Posted 5/26/2009 8:29:34 AM | message detail
Yeah, after seeing Mario 3 and Mario World so close I'd wager we see the same result next round.

Next round? SMW > Zelda.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/26/2009 8:30:08 AM | message detail
Oh.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 8:34:31 AM | message detail
LTTP in the final seems like a lock at this point. So we have 3 of 4 set in stone.

I seriously would love to win this just to give KP a PS3. I'm dead serious. I'd ask Bacon if I could donate the prize entirely, but I want to buy Skies of Arcadia for myself.
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voltch | Posted 5/26/2009 8:41:22 AM | message detail
huh next round 3 marios is the one scenario that should never have happened,zelda has all the cards to win that match,though will SMB and SMB3 hurt each other more than they hurt SMW?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 8:44:15 AM | message detail

From: voltch | Posted: 5/26/2009 11:41:22 AM | #389
huh next round 3 marios is the one scenario that should never have happened,zelda has all the cards to win that match,though will SMB and SMB3 hurt each other more than they hurt SMW?


You really think Zelda 1 doesn't get hurt by the presence of THREE Mario games?
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voltch | Posted 5/26/2009 8:46:12 AM | message detail
logically those 3 mario games will murder each other before they even think of taking on the hardcore zelda fans.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 9:03:40 AM | message detail
I doubt it. All three of those games probably have a 95%+ overlap with the original Legend of Zelda. You're asking Zelda to pull off the impossible.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 9:06:30 AM | message detail
One thing the Mairo games have against them is the low vote total, we're heading for about 110k today. Yesterday SMB/LoZ brought in almost 120k.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
Yesmar | Posted 5/26/2009 9:07:13 AM | message detail
You really think Zelda 1 doesn't get hurt by the presence of THREE Mario games?

You don't think the THREE OTHER MARIO GAMES get hurt by the presence of the three other Mario games? Not like this match gives me much faith in them hurting each other, but if they can't hurt each other, why would they hurt a Nintendo game from a completely different series?
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Yesmar | Posted 5/26/2009 9:07:55 AM | message detail
I doubt it. All three of those games probably have a 95%+ overlap with the original Legend of Zelda. You're asking Zelda to pull off the impossible.

And they have 95% overlap with themselves as well!!
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 9:12:12 AM | message detail

From: Yesmar | Posted: 5/26/2009 12:07:13 PM | #394
You really think Zelda 1 doesn't get hurt by the presence of THREE Mario games?

You don't think the THREE OTHER MARIO GAMES get hurt by the presence of the three other Mario games? Not like this match gives me much faith in them hurting each other, but if they can't hurt each other, why would they hurt a Nintendo game from a completely different series?


If this is true (next round having no significant SFF in it), Zelda loses. It's not close to stronger than Mario World indirectly. For Zelda to win, it needs one of three things.

-Positive SFF in the face of three Mario games, to the level of 3/World's strength.
-World or 3 SFFing the other and rendering them as weak as Zelda 1.
-No SFF at all, and being stronger than World/3 indirectly.

All three of these are nearly impossible if next round were just three games. Adding Mario 1 to the mix makes it even worse for Zelda, and we're right now looking at World and 3 not bothering each other very much. Zelda has to leapfrog all this, and with Mario 1 there sucking up its votes?

Did Zelda win the poll yesterday without me realizing it? You guys talk about it like it's some unstoppable force. It isn't.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 9:13:56 AM | message detail
I still don't believe how you can think SMB doesn't avoid last next round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 9:14:47 AM | message detail
I never said otherwise.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/26/2009 9:15:28 AM | message detail
Mario 1's gonna do worse than Prince of Persia.

Oh yeah.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 9:16:16 AM | message detail
Nevermind a few posts you said competing for last.

Still LoZ will be nowhere near SMB in that match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272