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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 727

hochiminhX | Posted 5/25/2009 10:44:29 PM | message detail
And yes, SMB3 is screwed next round. Expect SMW and LoZ to advance. SMB may not get much but it will be at the expense of SMB3.
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I will bury you.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 10:44:51 PM | message detail
Keep in mind that MGS/FFVIII should also split. There's no way the PS1's #2 and 3 games don't have some overlap.

And MGS/FF funny business is a common theory even today. I don't know if I believe in it quite so much anymore though. I don't know if MGS and FFT had anything weird in it.

But it's something to consider.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 10:48:47 PM | message detail
I think MGS and Goldeneye are underrated, and MGS will get pretty close to FFVIII on Friday. RBY is probably done even though it is probably the strongest game there besides OOT- it's going to be very hard making up 6% by replacing GS and MM with OOT. 6% is, again, not an easy gap to make up through LFF. And even if it does, FFVIII should be a bit stronger than MGS.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 10:50:09 PM | message detail
RBY is probably done even though it is probably the strongest game there besides OOT

Not so fast, my friend!

</Lee Corso>
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Lucid Faia | Posted 5/25/2009 10:50:46 PM | message detail
And yes, SMB3 is screwed next round. Expect SMW [...] to advance.

This will be glorious.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 10:51:21 PM | message detail
the night vote is here, and it does not like SMB3
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/25/2009 10:52:25 PM | message detail
I'm not convinced SMB3 gets the day vote either. It might but it might not.

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I will bury you.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/25/2009 10:53:04 PM | message detail
Ditto. This is up in the air for a while yet.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 10:53:07 PM | message detail
The night vote hasn't really arrived yet, although FFIV is starting to rise now.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 10:54:07 PM | message detail
And yes, I expect SMW to take the day vote if anything.
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transience | Posted 5/25/2009 10:56:00 PM | message detail
I like Mario 3 for the day vote. these trends kind of suggest it - Mario 3 winning the early vote, Mario World doing better when the night vote comes. it's not conclusive but I'd put my money on it, especially looking at how hard Mario 3 fell last night vote.
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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 11:33:44 PM | message detail
Yeah, Mario 3 had a bad night vote last round. Mario World somehow didn't fall very much with the night vote last time, but it still managed to have a great ASV. Of course, it was facing three games that don't have good day votes anyway. I think Mario 3's safe here though.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/26/2009 12:18:10 AM | message detail
55 votes cut in the last 20 minutes aw yeah let's get a lead change before morning
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/26/2009 12:25:28 AM | message detail
Mario World is coming back fast.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
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transience | Posted 5/26/2009 12:25:35 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3480
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3480&region=EUR

hoooooooly

Mario 3's gonna bomb this poll come morning
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yzzyx
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/26/2009 12:33:13 AM | message detail
Big cut. Wonder what the morning vote brings, because it looks like World has the dead hours. Unfortunately, that would tell us that 3 would take the day vote, but hell who knows.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
General_Zimbad | Posted 5/26/2009 12:36:51 AM | message detail
I actually did not see this coming at all. I thought FF4 would put up some fight. Also I thought SMB3 would have had a bigger edge on SMW. WTH people.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/26/2009 12:39:04 AM | message detail
I'd love a Mario World victory, but if it wins here, it's hard not to imagine it moving on next round as well. Assuming Zelda goes with it, that would be a bracket-killing double red for me.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
General_Zimbad | Posted 5/26/2009 12:40:54 AM | message detail
Up until now this had been a perfect division for me (1989-91). Not anymore.
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ZFS | Posted 5/26/2009 12:45:10 AM | message detail
worst match ever

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Ultimaphazon | Posted 5/26/2009 1:03:41 AM | message detail
World > 3 would be the best result of this contest so far.
It would absolutely kill my bracket, since I have SMB3 to the finals, but I wouldn't care.

Even if SMB3 holds on here, I don't like it going to the finals anymore. It hasn't had a single impressive performance yet.
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 5/26/2009 1:11:28 AM | message detail
I'd reckon SMB3 is frontloaded in comparison to a more recent game. I could see it bleeding to World for the rest of the match.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/26/2009 1:16:26 AM | message detail
I'm worried about Mario 3's geographical variation. Last round, it did much better in America than it did overall. That could be partly attributable to going up two games that are very strong in Europe, but I can still see it hitting its stride as soon as we enter the morning vote.

Conversely, Mario World showed very similar percentages in all locations.
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Meeks54's sig for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/26/2009 1:21:46 AM | message detail
Managing the highest percentage and vote total of round 1 isn't impressive?

@MetricTrout: I thought GoldenEye IS Nintendo. If it isn't, then we can officially call Final Fantasy VII > Super Mario 64 a lock due to Chrono Trigger getting hurt by the presence of a stronger Square game.

As far as vote totals go, MGS > MGS4 > RE4 > GoldenEye, but all of them are very close together.

Well, my "upset" turned out to be right, and it seems that Final Fantasy IV really does share with the Nintendo fanbase. Time to move on to the next match.

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Super Metroid vs. Final Fantasy VI vs. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening

This is cool right here; three games that deserve to win the tourney and the best handheld adventure ever (though I don't count Pokemon as an adventure). Zelda 3 and Final Fantasy VI will most certainly advance, so the question is what order. I have FFVI winning the match in my bracket, but I'm not so sure of that anymore. Sure Zelda 3 will be brought down by two Nintendo entities, but it managed 10k more votes (higher vote total in an SFF match huh) than FFVI last round and FFVI has more reason to get hurt by Super Metroid and Zelda 3 than Sonic 2 and Mortal Kombat II, due to at least sharing the same system. Not to mention today's match is showing that the old-school Square games may very well be part of the Nintendo fanbase. Zelda 3 will more or less repeat its first round performance (in vote totals, mind you!), and I will be cheap by stealing the percentages from Mario 1's match. Overall, I think Zelda 3 will win, though I won't be surprised if FFVI took 1st. As for Super Metroid vs. Zelda 4, I think Super Metroid gets SFFd less and takes third place, though Link's Awakening could edge it out. Bring on the match, please!

Prediction: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Final Fantasy VI
Zelda: A Link to the Past - 36.18%, Super Metroid - 15.67%, Final Fantasy VI - 34.43%, Zelda: Link's Awakening - 13.71%
Bracket: Final Fantasy VI > Zelda: A Link to the Past
Favorites: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Metroid (don't mind if FFVI advances though)
Favorites Bracket: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Metroid
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/26/2009 1:55:20 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3480&region=EUR

hoooooooly

Mario 3's gonna bomb this poll come morning


Mario 3 still won first place in Europe, but it was up against Sonic and Monkey Island, both being games which do a lot better in Europe (which will hurt Mario 3's performance there).

Right now, Super Mario World is trying to pull a comeback with the night vote.
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Janus5000 | Posted 5/26/2009 2:44:44 AM | message detail
Doesn't look like Europe likes SMW too much either. Sonic and FFIV are having a ball, though - FFIV almost took first 20 minutes ago.
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Janus5000 | Posted 5/26/2009 2:49:58 AM | message detail
And FFIV wins an update. I consider this a moral victory. <_<
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 3:18:45 AM | message detail
Huh, Mario World still has a chance here
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 5/26/2009 3:23:36 AM | message detail
30 votes in 40 minutes leaves me unimpressed.

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|PM| 8)
After 15: 48/60
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 3:25:01 AM | message detail
We're talking about two Mario games that should have very similiar trends though. Less then 200 down makes this anyones game
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transience | Posted 5/26/2009 3:30:39 AM | message detail
if this remains close, SMB3/World/1/Zelda 1 should be advantage Mario World.
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yzzyx
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/26/2009 3:37:48 AM | message detail
Call me crazy, but I think Mario 3 and Mario 1 will advance to round 5.
transience | Posted 5/26/2009 3:53:13 AM | message detail
...alright, Mario 3's in real trouble.
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
RPGGamer0 | Posted 5/26/2009 3:53:19 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #332
Call me crazy, but I think Mario 3 and Mario 1 will advance to round 5.


Why?

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|PM| 8)
After 15: 48/60
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 3:54:00 AM | message detail
When does the Mario morning vote typically start anyway?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 4:07:28 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Smurf FAQs | Posted 5/26/2009 4:13:33 AM | message detail
Still say SMW has this, wouldn't make much sense for a like for like NES game to outdo a SNES game during the more casual voting periods.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 4:42:43 AM | message detail
SMB3 owning this morning vote. Gotta think its the favorite atm
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/26/2009 4:49:37 AM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsCrono
SMB3 owning this morning vote. Gotta think its the favorite atm

It'll come down to the ASV, plain and simple. Anyone calling it before we see how that goes is crazy.
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TBH.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/26/2009 5:16:15 AM | message detail
@RPGamer: Well, according to the list Mario 3 > Mario 1 > Mario World > Zelda I, and the list has so far served as a good proxy for Mario 1.

Plus, all four games share the same fanbase. There will be no non-Mario STF or non-NES STF.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 5:16:51 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 5/26/2009 5:19:53 AM | message detail
I don't see how LoZ can come in second next round, the gap is too small. It has a better chance at taking first or not advancing.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/26/2009 5:20:28 AM | message detail
The list was made before Oblivion's release, and WoW has done decently well in this competition.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 5:21:56 AM | message detail
Right now, based on current results (may chance) the favorite has to be Zelda > SMW. Take out Sonic and FF4 and replace them with two other high profile NES games, and theres no doubt in my mind that SMB3 loses enough votes to lose it to SMW. I mean at this point they're only 200 votes apart anyway
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/26/2009 5:22:32 AM | message detail
Whoa, SMW did well overnight. Looks like it really is about even with SMB3, and this is going to be decided by the ASV.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 5:24:29 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #345
Whoa, SMW did well overnight. Looks like it really is about even with SMB3, and this is going to be decided by the ASV.


Look at the percents. It wasn't that SMW did well overnight, it just sucked less then SMB3 xD
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TheRewster | Posted 5/26/2009 5:24:50 AM | message detail
It's good to see both Marios kicking some ass.

I've always preferred SMB3 to SMW, but just barely--which is nicely reflected in how close the voting gap is between the two games today. =P
Smurf FAQs | Posted 5/26/2009 5:26:13 AM | message detail
Odd hour of dominance by SMB3, SMW seems to be edging the morning vote now though.
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/26/2009 5:27:08 AM | message detail
Hmm, Mario World kept close all night. I actually like it's chances to win more than Mario 3 at the moment, but this is still either game's match.
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 50 - Bracket: SMB3 > SMW - Vote: SMW (183/272)
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/26/2009 5:28:38 AM | message detail
Looking at last match trends, SMB3 had a better morning vote but SMW had better ASV.
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