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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 727

MetricTrout | Posted 5/25/2009 9:22:28 PM | message detail
So, how badly does Link to the Past beat FF3 tomorrow?
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 9:23:12 PM | message detail
What would FFVI be doing in FFIV's place here?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/25/2009 9:23:21 PM | message detail
So now I'm in the top 100.

The sad thing is, I just bought a huge haul of games and have nothing I want for a long time. If by some miracle I win, I'd probably use the prize to get KP a Playstation 3, then get myself Skies of Arcadia Legends and some other random game with the leftovers.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:23:41 PM | message detail
I figure that match was like Final Fantasy vs. Mario for Square fans or something, so they voted FF out of principle.

Yup I even questioned the ability of FF to stand up against real competition.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/25/2009 9:23:52 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | Posted: 5/26/2009 12:22:28 AM | #151
So, how badly does Link to the Past beat FF3 tomorrow?


Is it possible something else besides FF6 gets second place tomorrow?
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:23:58 PM | message detail
It should be close. LTTP is close to Mario 3, and FFVI is far above FFIV. The 2 Nintendo games in the poll probably hurt LTTP a little more than the Mario games are hurting each other today.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 9:24:28 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #155
Is it possible something else besides FF6 gets second place tomorrow?


The only other option strong enough is LA, but it should be killed by LTTP
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 9:24:54 PM | message detail
If you think LA miraculously doesn't get SFF'd by LTTP or you think LTTP can straight up double FFVI or worse, then yeah, it's possible.

Well, it's possible LTTP gets 2nd, I guess.
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creativename | Posted 5/25/2009 9:24:55 PM | message detail
Prediction percentages not great for last match, actually puts me tied for 19th on the bracket leaderboard with 208. But my bracket has FFIV>LoZ in the quarterfinals so that's done. SMW should go down but FFIV is going to look pretty bad :( Makes me sad.

The awfulness of the casuals at predicting this bracket continues to amaze though. So easy to have a bracket high in the percentiles right now.

SMB3>LoZ looks good for the quarters. Which means SMB3 looks good for the finals, because both LttP and LoZ should be in the semis match. I think SMB3 is worse for OoT than LttP, because SMB3 will hold up a lot better than LttP.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:25:04 PM | message detail
Is it possible something else besides FF6 gets second place tomorrow?

Link to the Past

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/25/2009 9:25:28 PM | message detail
I'm not going to use that sig. Trash talk me or something, come on!
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 9:25:40 PM | message detail
So much for Mario 3 slowing down.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/25/2009 9:25:50 PM | message detail
The average Board 8 bracket crushes the average casual bracket every time, so what are ya talkin about

dont start with this.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:25:56 PM | message detail
What would FFVI be doing in FFIV's place here?

It'd probably be in third now, but would finish in 2nd, very outside shot at first.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/25/2009 9:27:23 PM | message detail
Well, getting the full points for yesterday's match increased my percentile to around the 94 mark to 99.0782. This puts me in the top 350, although I'm going to get half points for today if SMB3 holds onto first place.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 9:27:25 PM | message detail

From: Meeks54 | #149
How about.


MWC was able to out predict the great Yoblazer, greatest contest predictor of all time.
One sig down, four to go.


Um, the point of sig bets is to make fun of the person, not to compliment them >_>
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 5/25/2009 9:27:30 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #153
So now I'm in the top 100.

The sad thing is, I just bought a huge haul of games and have nothing I want for a long time. If by some miracle I win, I'd probably use the prize to get KP a Playstation 3, then get myself Skies of Arcadia Legends and some other random game with the leftovers.


Same here, and if all goes well in three days I'll be #2 in Guru before Starcraft bites me in the ass.

Of course, my bracket still rides solely on Brawl exceeding all expectations.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/25/2009 9:28:00 PM | message detail
I am the great Yoblazer I can start with whatever I want.

Anyway, while I'll fully admit to having a carton of eggs all over my face here, this whole contest has painted an extremely bland picture of what our top games look like. There is absolutely no guarantee that any non-Nintendo game outside of FFVII is even in the top ten.
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creativename | Posted 5/25/2009 9:28:36 PM | message detail
It'd probably be in third now, but would finish in 2nd, very outside shot at first.

I don't know if FFVI is that much stronger than FFIV.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:28:57 PM | message detail
Actually, scratch the "very outside" part. It'd have a small but decent chance at first here. If it didn't, that would imply that FFVI's chances tomorrow are very very low.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 9:29:04 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #168
I am the great Yoblazer I can start with whatever I want.

Anyway, while I'll fully admit to having a carton of eggs all over my face here, this whole contest has painted an extremely bland picture of what our top games look like. There is absolutely no guarantee that any non-Nintendo game outside of FFVII is even in the top ten.


Bold statement. You think CT may have dropped out of the top 10 then?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/25/2009 9:29:14 PM | message detail
So yeah, I'm thinking LTTP>FFVI pretty easily at this point.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 9:30:35 PM | message detail
I don't know if FFVI is that much stronger than FFIV.

FFVI crushes FFIV in FF polls for a reason.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 9:30:36 PM | message detail
woah
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 9:30:59 PM | message detail
30 vote cut for Mario World there. Hmmm...
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:31:03 PM | message detail
SMW cut!

Who alerted LUELinks?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
Meeks54 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:31:09 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #161
I'm not going to use that sig. Trash talk me or something, come on!




You are one of the few people here I actually like though, what would you even want to be trash talked on.


I would much rather trash talk the other 4 people who have sigs that will soon be mine.


But, if you insist.



"This sig is currently owned by Meeks54 for a stupid pick that had no chance. I even had it coming in first. MWC>Yo
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be.....LIKE MWC!!!"
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/25/2009 9:31:19 PM | message detail
Huh.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 9:31:21 PM | message detail
this match may not be over.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 5/25/2009 9:31:40 PM | message detail
Eh, scratch that, I should pay attention to other people's scores before I make bold proclamations.

Still, gonna make the leaderboard and might even have another run.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:32:16 PM | message detail
It's not like FFIV doing something today would have done anything to the top ten, that would have been solely due to that "Triple. Nintendo. LFF." I keep hearing so much about and not seeing.

Been pretty obvious since Mario 64/CT that the top ten (fifteen?) is a Nintendofest.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 5/25/2009 9:33:26 PM | message detail
World fighting back? Doesn't bother me, just puts me even with the idiots who had FF4 getting first. Still more than the favorable SMB3 > SMW pick, and I should still make the leaderboard regardless.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/25/2009 9:33:56 PM | message detail
Who alerted LUELinks?

There are no topics on LUElinks about this match.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/25/2009 9:34:15 PM | message detail
So...uh...I just thought of a way to spin this in RBY's favor.

Must. Resist.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 9:34:46 PM | message detail
FFVII
OoT
LTTP
Mario 3
Mario World
Mario 64
Melee
Chrono Trigger

Those are essentially guaranteed top ten games (although for some reason, despite Mario World doing so well right now, I hesitate to call it a guaranteed top ten. Maybe that 40% on CT is still putting me off).

6 out of 8 for Nintendo there. Then there's RBY, Brawl, FFX, FFVI, FFVIII, and MGS fighting for those last three spots, in my mind.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 9:34:50 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #184
So...uh...I just thought of a way to spin this in RBY's favor.

Must. Resist.


You know you gotta tell not that you even brought it up >_>
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:34:52 PM | message detail
What was that, SMW? Just when SMB3 had started pulling away!

You know, the scary thing is.....SMB3 gained less than 1% against CT with the day vote back in 2004, while Mario World gained about 4%. I don't trust those trends though- something tells me Mario World's no longer so far ahead of Mario 3 with the day. And the night vote should put this away either way.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/25/2009 9:34:58 PM | message detail
This one ain't over folks!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:35:06 PM | message detail
This makes RBY looks worse. It's the only Nintendo game that's had LFF affect it in a meaningful way.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 5/25/2009 9:35:08 PM | message detail
Then who alerted 4chan?

Who else can we blame? We need somebody to blame here so we can't blame this on our own inabilities to predict the preferences of the GameFAQs userbase!
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/25/2009 9:35:46 PM | message detail
uhh MWC, isnt that technically a spoiler <_<?
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:36:00 PM | message detail
Super Mario World doesn't want to die.

This could get interesting.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
MetricTrout | Posted 5/25/2009 9:37:25 PM | message detail
GameFAQs voters have shown excellent taste today!

Well, technically, Sonic should be in third, but eh.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 9:37:51 PM | message detail
SMB3 Trends Last Round: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3480&type=1&seconds=60&max=0
SMW Trends Last Round: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3481&type=1&seconds=60&max=0
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/25/2009 9:38:16 PM | message detail
I'd be tempted to call this for Mario World if Sonic and FF2 weren't there. I think they hurt Mario World more than Mario 3.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 9:39:19 PM | message detail
I think we need to get rid of this idea that unrelated games hurt each other.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:39:44 PM | message detail
I'd be tempted to call this for Mario World if Sonic and FF2 weren't there. I think they hurt Mario World more than Mario 3.

Well the tables are turned next round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SMW Points: 179/272
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:39:46 PM | message detail
Well, SMB3 is leading, but Mario World isn't letting him get a comfortable lead either.

Guess people overestimated FF4.

Now if only we could get a SMB, SMB3, SMW and SM64 match that would finally answer that one question many of us have, which of those Mario games is the best one?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/25/2009 9:39:48 PM | message detail
If Mario World keeps it tight today, it has a great chance next round. Up against three NES games, you've gotta give it better odds to do better than it does today, even if it wins.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 9:40:12 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #196
I think we need to get rid of this idea that unrelated games hurt each other.


Why? Its obvious they hurt eachother. People don't only play one genre after all. But just how much does it hurt is the question.
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