GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 727
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/24/2009 10:04:10 PM | message detail |
1-1 ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days. Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples) For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ "You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 10:09:25 PM | message detail |
2-4 > 1-2 --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/25/2009 6:31:50 PM | message detail |
What a boring match. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ "You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 6:32:35 PM | message detail |
Zelda's going to do about 7000 votes better this time though! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
paulg235 | Posted 5/25/2009 6:33:10 PM | message detail |
Next match will be even more boring than today's. --- The Gamer In Me http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 6:33:56 PM | message detail |
At least there's something to look forward to in tomorrow's match, though it'll likely be over within the first update. ...Just like nearly every other match this contest. *sighs* --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 6:35:09 PM | message detail |
I
think FFIV's going to come pretty close but not manage to place. Then
we have another potentially exciting match on Wednesday between LTTP
and FFVI, and then the Match of the Year on Thursday! --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 6:36:46 PM | message detail |
If LTTP contends with FFVI, then FFVI officially stinks. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 6:39:42 PM | message detail |
I
figure LTTP gets 57-58ish on FFVI normally. The two Nintendo games will
hurt, but LTTP should SFF them really badly this time (like, they'll
combine for 20% or so). LTTP and FFVI each get around half of the
remaining 80%. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/25/2009 6:40:50 PM | message detail |
LTTP is not only going to contend with FFVI, it's going to annihilate it (at least 52-48) !! --- No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 6:42:18 PM | message detail |
Man,
Mario 1 and Zelda 1 could barely SFF Metroid and Ninja Gaiden down to
15% combined. I don't think one Nintendo game is going to do it to two
Nintendo games stronger than those two. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/25/2009 6:43:33 PM | message detail |
Link to the Past more like Link. --- In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now. http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 6:44:38 PM | message detail |
LTTP
+ FFVI is much stronger than Mario 1 + Zelda 1, both because they are
stronger games and because they're not going to LFF each other. Put a
big Nintendo and a big Square force in the poll, and those 2 other
games are going to do pretty badly. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 6:46:27 PM | message detail |
I
don't think that's how it's going to work. I'd say the gap between SM +
LA and Metroid + NG is MUCH larger than the gap between LTTP + FFVI and
Mario 1 + Zelda 1 anyway. Final Fantasy VI isn't going to SFF anything,
so I don't know how both Super Metroid and LA are struggling for 10%. I
can believe LA struggles for 10% because LTTP is going to pound it, but
Super Metroid ought to be able to manage 15% or so. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 6:52:56 PM | message detail |
In
an FFVI/LTTP/Mario 1/Zelda 1 poll, FFVI + LTTP would double Mario 1 +
Zelda 1, at least. It's not that FFVI is going to SFF SM and LA, it's
just that it adds a lot of strength to the poll that adding Zelda 1 to
Mario 1 does not. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 6:53:47 PM | message detail |
I don't agree with that logic either. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/25/2009 6:54:00 PM | message detail |
From: paulg235 | Posted: 5/25/2009 9:33:10 PM | #005 I hope you're right, tbh --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ "You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 6:54:33 PM | message detail |
No more boring matches! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 6:56:24 PM | message detail |
Well,
if you want an example, I think there's only been one match so far with
a Nintendo and Square game as big as LTTP/FFVI, and in that
poll.....SOTN and YI finished with about 22% combined I think. I know
that SM and LA are stronger, but SOTN also wasn't being SFFed unless
you believe in CT/SOTN SFF. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
Yesmar | Posted 5/25/2009 8:26:58 PM | message detail |
I'm
not aboard this SMW > SMB3 train. They faced a common opponent in
'04 and 3 did noticeably better. I see no reason for the fanbase to
shifted in such a way since then, especially for two games that are
only a year apart, albeit from different gens. --- FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest! |
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/25/2009 8:28:48 PM | message detail |
If they call Kuribo Goombas then why do they call it Kuribo's Shoe anyway. Shouldn't it be Goomba's Shoe --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
transience | Posted 5/25/2009 8:29:36 PM | message detail |
is that what it is? that's not a goomba's shoe man, it's a shoe of the goddamn gods --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg |
PiGuy96 | Posted 5/25/2009 8:31:36 PM | message detail |
I
don't think World > 3 either...but which way would Luigi/Bowser have
gone in 2004 (the year Luigi lost to Yoshi)? And which way did it go
last year? Why did it flip? --- RPGuy netbook remix |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 8:32:02 PM | message detail |
Super Luigi Galaxy boost --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 8:32:54 PM | message detail |
Although the site shift in 2005 seems to have, uhh...shifted the Mario hierarchy a bit, for whatever the reason. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/25/2009 8:36:46 PM | message detail |
Zelda is going to end this match on a 14 hour stall. --- Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 8:37:47 PM | message detail |
C'mon Zelda, get this under 2000! --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 8:38:00 PM | message detail |
That's been the story of this contest. Many stalls, no comebacks. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 8:38:21 PM | message detail |
It's really tearing into Mario now with this last hour. Keep the poll open another day, and Zelda wins this! --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/25/2009 8:38:24 PM | message detail |
So how do you think the positions will be after the first 10 mins of the match? --- "If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus |
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/25/2009 8:38:41 PM | message detail |
Hey, there was Tales of Symphonia. And. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/25/2009 8:40:23 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 5/25/2009 11:38:00 PM | #028 No kidding. Granted, comebacks are fairly rare in polls. We just get spoiled sometimes. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ "You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/25/2009 8:43:14 PM | message detail |
There's still plenty of time for that to change. Contests are always remembered for the latter rounds, anyway. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 8:44:14 PM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #031 Halo technically if you wanna use the ToS example. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png |
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/25/2009 8:51:38 PM | message detail |
Zen Analyzes the Match Pic! Because people think he's serious! Hey, I made this one! It's all box arts, but as we know, FFII has terrible box art. Even fat first appearance Sonic looks better. Raccoon Mario and LUEshi are going to have a struggle here, but I don't think it really matters. In the end, Raccon Mario is overlapping the Watchmen logo, so I think we all know what that means: ADVANTAGE: SMB3 --- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/25/2009 8:51:53 PM | message detail |
oh yeah http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-50.jpg --- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/25/2009 8:52:31 PM | message detail |
Advantage: Not Final Fantasy --- Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/25/2009 8:53:27 PM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 5/25/2009 11:52:31 PM | #037 Actually, this sounds a lot better than what I had. --- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/25/2009 8:55:54 PM | message detail |
Now with those pics, Sonic might be able to get by Mario World, but it wont be an easy battle. --- "If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus |
transience | Posted 5/25/2009 8:58:21 PM | message detail |
time for a ridiculous Mario World early vote --- xyzzy "Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter |
Janus5000 | Posted 5/25/2009 8:59:16 PM | message detail |
Match of ultimate truth in one minute let's do this --- http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg Stay a while and breathe me in. |
HaRRicH | Posted 5/25/2009 8:59:30 PM | message detail |
Sonic 1's getting last place like it deserves, and I've never even played FF2/4. --- BT > Harrich lol me |
Master Moltar | Posted 5/25/2009 8:59:33 PM | message detail |
mario world domination in 5 --- Moltar Status: complete global saturation Match 50 - Bracket: SMB3 > SMW - Vote: SMW (183/272) |
Master Moltar | Posted 5/25/2009 9:00:14 PM | message detail |
Super Mario Bros. 3 25% 4 Sonic the Hedgehog 0% 0 Super Mario World 31.25% 5 Final Fantasy II (IV) 43.75% 7 TOTAL VOTES 16 go sonic --- Moltar Status: complete global saturation Match 50 - Bracket: SMB3 > SMW - Vote: SMW (183/272) |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/25/2009 9:00:16 PM | message detail |
Super Mario Bros. 3 22.22% 4 Sonic the Hedgehog 0% 0 Super Mario World 27.78% 5 Final Fantasy II (IV) 50% 9 TOTAL VOTES 18 --- Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2009 9:00:16 PM | message detail |
Super Mario Bros. 3 28.57% 2 Sonic the Hedgehog 0% 0 Super Mario World 28.57% 2 Final Fantasy II (IV) 42.86% 3 TOTAL VOTES 7 Poor Sonic. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
Janus5000 | Posted 5/25/2009 9:00:16 PM | message detail |
Vote Accepted Super Mario Bros. 3 20% 1 Sonic the Hedgehog 0% 0 Super Mario World 40% 2 Final Fantasy II (IV) 40% 2 TOTAL VOTES 5 Saw that one coming. --- http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg Stay a while and breathe me in. |
Majin Lou | Posted 5/25/2009 9:00:21 PM | message detail |
Super Mario Bros. 3 26.67% 4 Sonic the Hedgehog 0% 0 Super Mario World 26.67% 4 Final Fantasy II (IV) 46.67% 7 TOTAL VOTES 15 lol Snoic --- I am absolute corruption. Pokemon Platinum FC: 1934 6546 0293 |
transience | Posted 5/25/2009 9:00:28 PM | message detail |
whoaaa maybe not huh, pie on my face, at least early. --- xyzzy http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/25/2009 9:00:33 PM | message detail |
FF4 seems ready to play --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png |