GameFAQs Contests

Yeah, it appears Mario did beat Zelda worse in Canada than the US. But Zelda's jump at 3 last round wasn't due to the ASV- it was a Saturday. And I would expect even a Canadian ASV to help Zelda if anything, because Zelda probably wins among kids in both countries. Mario's getting support from NES gamers; Zelda has support from those who started gaming beginning with the N64, when Zelda became bigger than Mario. The Canadian ASV shouldn't affect trends too much anyway.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

From: red sox 777 | #401
Yeah, it appears Mario did beat Zelda worse in Canada than the US. But Zelda's jump at 3 last round wasn't due to the ASV- it was a Saturday. And I would expect even a Canadian ASV to help Zelda if anything, because Zelda probably wins among kids in both countries. Mario's getting support from NES gamers; Zelda has support from those who started gaming beginning with the N64, when Zelda became bigger than Mario. The Canadian ASV shouldn't affect trends too much anyway.

Did you forget about the SNES?


The Legend of Zelda passed Super Mario Bros. for all time once A Link to the Past was released. Super Mario will never have a game better than a Link to the Past. Of course Ocarina of Time just ended the debate for all eternity.


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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???

I did not; I was not talking about quality. Mario was still a bigger series than Zelda during the SNES years, despite LTTP being an amazing game. Mario was still the face of Nintendo- that did not change until OOT, and Nintendo's failure to release a decent mainline Mario game in 11 years.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Trend comparisons between last round and this round- SMB by the hour:

Time | Last Round | This Round | Change

1:00 | 55.94% | 53.33% | -2.61%
2:00 | 54.91% | 52.86% | -2.05%
3:00 | 55.61% | 52.00% | -3.61%
4:00 | 56.13% | 53.47% | -2.66%
5:00 | 56.37% | 52.60% | -3.77%
6:00 | 59.59% | 54.66% | -4.93%
7:00 | 58.26% | 53.18% | -5.08%
8:00 | 58.83% | 54.61% | -4.22%
9:00 | 55.24% | 51.97% | -3.27%
10:00 | 54.64% | 52.98% | -1.66%
11:00 | 55.76% | 52.03% | -3.73%
12:00 | 54.62% | 51.10% | -3.52%
13:00 | 54.73% | 49.96% | -4.77%
14:00 | 54.08% | 49.77% | -4.31%
15:00 | 54.56% | 49.81% | -4.75%

Last round's trends for the rest of the match:

16:00 | 52.72%
17:00 | 53.18%
18:00 | 53.16%
19:00 | 52.56%
20:00 | 53.35%
21:00 | 52.97%
22:00 | 52.96%
23:00 | 52.50%
24:00 | 52.18%

Current Projection: SMB wins with 51.16%.

SMB did better with the early vote today than last round, and accordingly Zelda has gained more with the day than last round, and SMB's projection has been slowly declining as time goes on. Unfortunately SMB still looks safe here; Zelda probably will get to 49%, but 50% seems out of the question.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I don't know about you Red Sox, but all of a sudden I am really thinking FF VII>CT has a legit chance.

It is beginning to look like Mario's round 2 was a complete anomaly, and none of them are coming this strong again. It is crazy to think Megaman does this much damage to Mario compared to Zelda, so I think the backlash has begun. Goldeneye to SFF Mario 64 enough for Chrono Trigger to take second. BELIEVE.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???

CT has always had a legit chance, and that isn't just CT fanboyism speaking. It got 48% last round when most of the Mario games went way above their round 1 performances....and who knows what happens when you replace SOTN/YI with FFVII/GE.

And uh, Zelda just cut 30 votes off the lead. Probably more importantly, it's won 10 of the last 11 updates.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

this canadian asv is brutal
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Canadian ASV? Really guys?
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I will bury you.

From: hochiminhX | #408
Canadian ASV? Really guys?

Shows how incredibly boring this match is.


Thanks for this bracket SB.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???

Canadian ASV? Really guys?

13:00 | 49.96%
14:00 | 49.77%
15:00 | 49.81%
16:00 | 51.42%

Ya really.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB Points: 171/256

Considering that Zelda gained quite a bit that hour last round, that's a decent sized shift. Probably just random variation though.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

seems we are past the canadian asv!
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

I see that people are looking at the next match and are starting to understand my hunch about the possibility of both Mario games advancing next round.

The real question is can Sonic take advantage of it here and try to claim one of the advancing positions, or will it totally flop like what happened to FF4?
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

seems we are past the canadian asv!

Well you know there are fewer Canadians than Americans.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB Points: 171/256

Sonic stands no chance of placing tomorrow. Even if you think it's stronger than FFIV, it's got two other platformers in that poll, including one from its generation that destroyed its more popular (or, at worst, equally popular) successor.

I'd like to still be optimistic about FFIV's chances but after last round augh
Maybe people are suddenly fed with Mario games dominating...
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.

The problem with that is the last time a Mario game did well was a week ago and we just saw Galaxy flop even harder.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB Points: 171/256

Time | Last Round | This Round | Change

1:00 | 55.94% | 53.33% | -2.61%
2:00 | 54.91% | 52.86% | -2.05%
3:00 | 55.61% | 52.00% | -3.61%
4:00 | 56.13% | 53.47% | -2.66%
5:00 | 56.37% | 52.60% | -3.77%
6:00 | 59.59% | 54.66% | -4.93%
7:00 | 58.26% | 53.18% | -5.08%
8:00 | 58.83% | 54.61% | -4.22%
9:00 | 55.24% | 51.97% | -3.27%
10:00 | 54.64% | 52.98% | -1.66%
11:00 | 55.76% | 52.03% | -3.73%
12:00 | 54.62% | 51.10% | -3.52%
13:00 | 54.73% | 49.96% | -4.77%
14:00 | 54.08% | 49.77% | -4.31%
15:00 | 54.56% | 49.81% | -4.75%
16:00 | 52.72% | 51.42% | -1.30%
17:00 | 53.18% | 48.15% | -5.03%

Back on track, with Zelda cutting 138 votes off the lead that hour.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

This is gonna end up like 49% on Mario. Not bad at all.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Well-done, LoZ. I suspect MM2 is to blame, but it's really too hard to say and I'll give LoZ the benefit of the doubt. Speaking of MM2, I was hoping it would come back to beat Tetris...guess not!

Metroid VS Mega Man 2, who ya got?
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Metroid.
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Mega Man 2 > Metroid


Anyway, I think Tetris is the one hurting Mario in this poll, not Mega Man. Tetris is one of the most important games in the history of the video game industry, along with SMB. It would make sense that it would drain SMB's status as a gaming icon.

Either that, or Zelda has massive sore thumb factor in today's poll. Being the only terrible game and all. I mean, if you have terrible taste, what else are you going to vote for?
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147

I called for SMB/Tetris LFF yesterday, and I'd much sooner believe that than MM2 hurting SMB relative to LoZ. Of course, it could just be that Mario games have come back to earth from their ridiculous round 2 performance- we may get a better read on that over the next few days.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Why are we losing faith in the Mario series over this? It's going to end up doing *3%* worse! This is just random variation levels. Plus, it has Tetris and MM2 in the poll leeching away crucial parts of its fanbase. How is that bad by any stretch of the imagination? I
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

I don't think this performance is giving anyone more confidence in FFIV or Chrono Trigger.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

FF4 never had a chance in the first place.

Chrono Trigger is still screwed.
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

We're having good votals today compared to other NES game matches.
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FFIV is still advancing tomorrow!

But this match shouldn't have changed anyone's opinion about anything, other than maybe the fact that SMB1 isn't the monstrous entry most assumed after round 2, but that should have been a given.

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a metal slime appears

Keep dreamin', Gooch fanboy.
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

Worst stats topic theories this season:
1) Canadian ASV
2) Comparing games by using votals
3) Last place factor
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0

The Canadian vote is only slightly weaker than the European vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB Points: 171/256

I'm a fan of the Canadian ASV myself.
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

Needs more Europe Factor.

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a metal slime appears

Europeon ASV!

What time would that be, anyway?
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

9am EST for the large portion of Europe.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB Points: 171/256

Hey, no one thought the Canadian ASV would do much of anything to trends! But it absolutely exists- and Canada provides like 10% of our total votes.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Good to know for the next contest we have with an American-based holiday on a Canadian school day!
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BT > Harrich
lol me

FFIV should be a marginal favorite for tomorrow. Should go without saying that nobody should jump to conclusions based on the board vote - SMW will do great with the board vote and should be easily winning early on, since the board vote acts like there's no Nintendo LFF due to it's massive Nintendo bias.

maybe the fact that SMB1 isn't the monstrous entry most assumed after round 2, but that should have been a given.

Today's match shouldn't change anyone's mind about that, and I don't know why it would - both SMB and LoZ are pretty monstrous games. We already knew LoZ basically should equal SMB without SFF - today's match shows their indirect strengths should be almost even, which we already knew. Both SMB and LoZ should indirectly be just a few points under their higher brethren, SMB3 and LttP.
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gamefaqscontests.com
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Match L: Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Super Mario World vs. Final Fantasy II (IV)

Last Round:

Super Mario Bros. 3 – 48.68%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 22.59%
Street Fighter II – 20.64%
The Secret of Monkey Island – 8.09%

Super Mario World – 54.13%
Final Fantasy II (IV) – 23.91%
Final Fantasy – 12.80%
Mega Man 3 – 9.16%

Analysis

The match everyone has been waiting for just so we can finally clear up what happened in round 2. The tables have turned for the Mario series as they are now in the face of massive fanbase overlap. This is Final Fantasy IV’s best chance at getting revenge for what happened to it last round. If Final Fantasy IV can take the upset here it will look golden for reaching the semi-finals.

Despite being only average while the other three Mario games overperformed Super Mario Bros. 3 will show why it is the strongest Mario game by defeating Super Mario World while taking first. Super Mario World did looked prime to defeat it last round though it was a SFF match and the game still has round 1 haunting it. Supporters for Super Mario World argue that we hold on to old stats too tightly, but you don’t need stats to tell you which game is stronger, common sense tells us so. Super Mario Bros. 3 has always been the preferred Mario game not just on GameFAQs, but on almost all gaming sites that don’t have the newer = better philosophy and since many of GameFAQs’ most popular games are over 10 years old you can’t really argue that the philosophy stands. The only thing Super Mario World has is one poll that had massive SFF/LFF. So which side is clinging on to stats more?

On the opposite end Sonic 1 will take last. Out of the three Sonic games the only one that I didn’t have in round 3 was the one that actually made it. Sonic 1 was able to avoid SFF rather well against Super Mario Bros. 3 so maybe Sonic 2 was just weak in 2004. There’s still the possibility that Super Mario World is more likely to SFF Sonic games because it was the Mario game that went up against the Sonic series. I guess we’ll find out in this match.

The battle for second is very debatable and depending on which round you trust more you’ll come to a different conclusion. When I made my bracket I took Super Mario World because I didn’t believe that the game will be SFF and could coast through the LFF against Final Fantasy IV. Even though I believe that Super Mario Bros. 3 is the strongest Mario game I do believe that both Super Mario World and Super Mario 64 have a big enough fanbase to hold their own and avoid a lot of SFF. Back in round 1 I said Final Fantasy would fold in this format because franchise voters will have more options. It couldn’t happen in round 1 because the other two options added up to about17.5% effectively making it a one on one match, but it could explain why it folded so easily in round 2. On the off chance that the game is SFF by Super Mario Bros. 3 advancing will only be a dream.

Final Fantasy IV needs to hope that Super Mario World is going to be SFF in this match or Final Fantasy does not run on only franchise votes and is actually worth 45% against Super Mario World. Final Fantasy IV looked terrible last round. Sure it was in a LFF match, but even adding both Final Fantasy games together somehow puts them below Final Fantasy’s score in round 1. The only possible reason I can think of is that Super Mario World console SFF Final Fantasy IV. I don’t really agree with it since the two games are very different and the many re-releases Final Fantasy IV has had are probably worth more than the original SNES release since North Americans weren’t huge RPG fans back then. Though if it is Final Fantasy IV has no chance against Super Mario World and may even be closer to Sonic the Hedgehog.

A lot rides on this match for my bracket. I won’t be eliminated from the guru, but if Final Fantasy IV wins I might as well be since I need it gone for my top half to go as planned. The match can really go in many different directions. The results here will likely dictate how the top half of the bracket will end. Also three Mario games in a poll will be rather fun to watch next round.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Mario Bros. 3 > Super Mario World

charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Mario Bros. 3 – 34.36%, Super Mario World – 26.83%, Final Fantasy II (IV) – 23.95%, Sonic the Hedgehog – 14.86%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB Points: 171/256

Tonights match should be a good one! I can't wait.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

I have a feeling tonight will be a bomb one way or another, but I'm half hoping for Mario 3 in third place just to see everyone's reaction.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

From: UltimaterializerX | #441
I have a feeling tonight will be a bomb one way or another, but I'm half hoping for Mario 3 in third place just to see everyone's reaction.

That would be the most awesome result of the contest so far. Though I wouldn't be that shocked, since I just don't buy that Mario fans prefer an inferior game afterall.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Indeed, and if FF4 doesn't managed to get 2nd place here, then well have one helluva match in the next round.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

I have a feeling tonight will be a bomb one way or another, but I'm half hoping for Mario 3 in third place just to see everyone's reaction.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Mario 3 in third place.

For about 5 seconds. Super Mario World's board vote is insane, and that could hurt Mario 3 early on.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

From: LeonhartFour | #444
I have a feeling tonight will be a bomb one way or another, but I'm half hoping for Mario 3 in third place just to see everyone's reaction.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Mario 3 in third place.

For about 5 seconds. Super Mario World's board vote is insane, and that could hurt Mario 3 early on.

What about at the freeze?
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
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FFIV won the board vote last round, actually, though I wouldn't expect it to repeat that performance here.
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RPGuy netbook remix

I don't think Mario World will lead for THAT long.
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One really good thing will come out of tonights match if Mario 3 bombs.

Maybe people will stop giving LttP all this supposed "Strength" when its done nothing to prove it.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

What does Mario 3 have to do with LTTP?
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I just realized I'm in the top 260 or so. I've done ass all contest and I'm still that high up? Jeez. Crazy how I'd be near the top if I followed my instinct more often.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid