GameFAQs Contests

if Zelda can hold this down for a few more updates I might consider the possibility of it coming back. that morning vote should bury it though unless Zelda cuts overnight.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg

Final vote total stats of round 2.

Metal Gear Solid 4 kept about 88.82% of its votes from last round.
Portal kept about 90.06% of its votes from last round.
Fallout 3 kept about 75.83% of its votes from last round.
Halo 3 kept about 75.9% of its votes from last round.

Seems like there wasn't much SFF in this match. And whoa Portal! I'm going to install it on my laptop after this contest is over!

And now that it's complete:

1. Zelda: Ocarina of Time
2. Super Mario World
3. Zelda: A Link to the Past
4. Final Fantasy VII
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
6. Super Mario Bros.
7. Super Mario 64
8. Super Smash Bros. Brawl
9. Super Smash Bros. Melee
10. Metal Gear Solid
11. The Legend of Zelda
12. Chrono Trigger
13. Final Fantasy VI
14. Metal Gear Solid 4
15. Tetris
16. Final Fantasy X
17. Metal Gear Solid 3
18. Zelda: Link’s Awakening
19. Pokemon Red/Blue
20. Zelda: Twilight Princess
21. Kingdom Hearts
22. Mega Man 2
23. Resident Evil 4
24. Kingdom Hearts II
25. Diablo II
26. Fallout 3
27. Zelda: Majora’s Mask
28. Oblivion
29. Call of Duty 4
30. Final Fantasy VIII
31. GoldenEye
32. Metal Gear Solid 2
33. Final Fantasy IV
34. World of Warcraft
35. Sonic the Hedgehog
36. Pokemon Gold/Silver
37. Zelda: Wind Waker
38. Portal
39. Tales of Symphonia
40. Street Fighter II
41. Halo
42. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
43. StarCraft
44. Half-Life 2
45. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
46. Super Metroid
47. Halo 3
48. Super Mario Kart
49. Super Mario RPG
50. Grand Theft Auto IV
51. Super Mario Galaxy
52. Final Fantasy IX
53. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
54. Pac-Man
55. Mario Kart 64
56. Final Fantasy
57. Mortal Kombat II
58. Donkey Kong Country
59. Donkey Kong
60. Metroid
61. Mega Man 3
62. The Secret of Monkey Island
63. Yoshi’s Island
64. Ninja Gaiden

VOTE TOTAL OF ROUND 2 FTW!

Neither SMB3 nor SMW are LoZ:OoT-caliber -- especially when they're going to bother each other to some degree -- and starting with the floor of 44.5% is much better than starting from 30%.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Leon, what the heck are you doing arguing against Final Fantasy, anyway? Just pretend Squall had a time paradox's cameo in IV or something.

I'm more of a new school FF fan...FFIV isn't one of my favorites.

I just calls 'em as I sees em.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I'll grant you that such a theory is easily possible, but what's to stop FFIV from getting that same support against a Nintendo joygasm?

Because Nintendo has a large fanbase. And Old Square's fanbase is ridiculously small. Just look at Chrono Trigger. If CT, a game that people actually care about, can bomb like this, what happens when you replace it with an Old Square game that no one cares about?
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147

This match should have weekend trends for whatever that's worth.

I thought Zelda had the better day vote and Mario did the burying overnight and in the morning last time...
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Neither SMB3 nor SMW are LoZ:OoT-caliber -- especially when they're going to bother each other to some degree -- and starting with the floor of 44.5% is much better than starting from 30%.

But the point is that the amount of SFF doesn't really prove anything. Link will SFF Ganondorf worse than he will nearly anyone. Doesn't mean Ganondorf's losing to Yoshi anytime soon.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

FFIV is one of my favourites, but I thought taking it far was silly from day one and pretty much all of round 2 reaffirms that.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

I thought Zelda had the better day vote and Mario did the burying overnight and in the morning last time...

That is correct.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Leon is just a bandwagoner
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Some hope for Zelda? Once we get past Europe and get to morning, it will improve throughout the rest of the day, but unfortunately in a couple hours Mario will probably start pulling away with the deep night and Europe. We actually had astonishingly similar trends last round and in SMB3/Zelda 5 years ago.

Projection based on last round: SMB wins with 52.02%.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Hey sox, can you do a projection based on last round for MM2 and tetris?
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Yesterday's chart:

Time | MGS4 | Portal | Fallout 3 | Halo 3 | Demographic
EBV | 36.06% | 20.87% | 25.75% | 17.32% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 36.23% | 22.53% | 24.34% | 16.89% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 36.99% | 22.06% | 25.24% | 15.71% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 37.61% | 21.73% | 25.21% | 15.44% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 34.62% | 20.08% | 25.35% | 19.95% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 34.52% | 19.61% | 26.08% | 19.79% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 34.85% | 20.49% | 26.07% | 18.59% | (22:00-24:00)

Great night vote and early morning vote for MGS4, not so good day vote. Fallout 3 is pretty balanced all around, but the day vote was a little better for it. Portal is a night game through and through, losing the day vote outright to Halo 3, which is a day game through and through. Nice 3.5% jump from the morning to the day there.

Yesterday's stats:

Metal Gear Solid 4 – 50.00%
Fallout 3 – 41.79%
Portal – 36.87%
Halo 3 – 34.01%

Lower Half Stats

Metal Gear Solid 4 – 50.00%
Fallout 3 – 41.79%
Portal (Round 2) – 36.87%
Portal (Round 1) – 36.55%
BioShock – 35.23%
Halo 3 (Round 1) – 34.91%
Halo 3 (Round 2) – 34.01%
Left 4 Dead – 29.43%
Mass Effect – 23.80%
LittleBigPlanet – 21.03%
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Leon is just a bandwagoner

Heh, I've had Mario 3 > Mario World here in my bracket since day one. Never considered FFIV.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

over the last 5 updates, Mario has gained a grand total of 6 votes
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

It looks like the deep night hurt MM2 a tad more than the day hurt Tetris last round- it was on a weekday though, for what that's worth.

Projection: Tetris wins with 53.01%

And Zelda looks like it wants to stall for real.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Why anyone would vote for a terrible game like Zelda 1 when there are 3 other great games in the poll in beyond me.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147

Looks like Mario/Zelda wants to stall it out until we get later into the night vote, where Zelda should be taking a bigger hit there.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

But Yoshi would beat Ganon with Link in the poll, which is an extreme version of what I'm saying. A more appropriate one to tomorrow's match may be that Yoshi could beat Ganon and/or Zelda if they shared a poll together. FF2/4 beating SMB3 and/or SMW is pretty similar to that except FF2/4 isn't Nintendo (which can help it stand out), more people are familiar with SMB3/SMW, and SMB3's probably going to SFF SMW whereas it's hard to say exactly how Zelda/Ganon SFF would fall. I do not see how FF2/4 doesn't advance tomorrow unless FF2/4 is indirectly equal to FF, SMB3/SMW split right down the middle, and both are still legitimately stronger than FF2/4 despite each other (and Sonic). Those odds feel pretty terrible to me.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

lol so much for the stalling. Mario just gained 42
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

But Yoshi would beat Ganon with Link in the poll, which is an extreme version of what I'm saying. A more appropriate one to tomorrow's match may be that Yoshi could beat Ganon and/or Zelda if they shared a poll together.

Great analogy. Except replace Yoshi with Ness.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147

Put it this way- Snake only gained 7% against Cloud when Sephiroth was added to the poll. Last round suggests that SMW is worth 60% on FF4, and SMB3/SMW LFF is not going to be close to Cloud/Sephiroth LFF. It's true that Cloud SFF'd Seph pretty hard, which helps your cause here, but I'm not sure SMB3/SMW LFF would be enough to make up even the 5.5% gap from round 1. And why should that match be more credible than the round 2 match?
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

ness can still beat pac-man just you wait guys

How can you call FF2/4 Ness in this? I don't get the disrespect for FF2/4 after what FF1 did and what FF2/4 did to FF. What am I missing here?
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BT > Harrich
lol me

I think you're missing the round 2 match. The one where FFIV got 30% on SMW and FF+FFIV only managed 40%.
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RPGuy netbook remix

harrich trying hard to prove his sig right
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

You're missing the round 2 match. If you believe it was a fluke, and round 1 is accurate, then yeah, FF4 looks pretty good (but not a lock even then). As it is, I don't know how you can be very confident in FFIV here- it has a chance, but it...uh...got utterly destroyed last round.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Because clearly FF1 has dropped since 2004, along with most of the other NES games.

I have a feeling Mario World is going to end up scarily close to Mario 3.
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

The R2 match where FFIV got destroyed because of same-series LFF? Which SMB3 and SMW will have to deal with?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Because we know the R2-match was an anomaly waiting to happen. What makes the R2-performance as credible or reliable as SMW/FF in R1? They had 80% of the vote and I dare somebody to argue Battletoads or Prince of Persia caused something very unusual with them. MM3 was sacrificed and FF had to share the match with FF2/4. Where's the legitimacy in that?
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Sonic will also be hurting the Marios more than it'll hurt FFIV. A lot more.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I'm curious: do you guys think that FFIV is weaker than FFI and just rSFF'd it to victory?
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.

From: PartOfYourWorld | #330
Sonic will also be hurting the Marios more than it'll hurt FFIV. A lot more.

You mean the game thats gonna be under 10% from the double SFF beat downs?
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

I think it's a bit stronger indirectly. The idea of any entity managing to rSFF a doubling is a bizarre one.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

No, but FF4 can't be higher than FF1 was in 2004. Not saying it's a lock by any means, but clearly with games that are this old, FF4 is going to be hurt by SMW irregardless. That combined with the fact SMW got 50+% on FF1/4 combined means I'm hesitant to take anything but both Marios advancing.
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

From: PartOfYourWorld | #330
Sonic will also be hurting the Marios more than it'll hurt FFIV. A lot more.

And by that logic, MM3 was holding SMW back and it would have broken 60% without it.
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Compare FF2's first round performance on Mega Man 3 vs Tetris' second round performance on MM2.

Then consider that MM2 > MM3.

Then consider how Tetris is doing today.

Yeah.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147

Super Mario World/Final Fantasy round 1 is literally the only good match that pre-FFVII Square has had. That happens to also be the only "okay" match that a non-Galaxy core Mario title has had. Maybe there's something there.

I'm curious: how do you think percentages are going to shake out? Especially if you think FFIV is taking first.
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RPGuy netbook remix

From: PartOfYourWorld
I think it's a bit stronger indirectly. The idea of any entity managing to rSFF a doubling is a bizarre one.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2122

60/40; not that far out. I don't think FF is > FFIV indirectly though.
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TBH.

Also to directly acknowledge what RPGuy said, that's why I think there is something to this combination of polls from earlier:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3481
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3485
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3492

There's a reasonable chance that having a weaker game you can SFF hard will make you look stronger in relation to the other options than usual since SMW/SM64/SSBB blew past our expectations, and I've gotta buy it for now since SMW beat FF and FF2/4 worse than just FF.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

The R2 match where FFIV got destroyed because of same-series LFF? Which SMB3 and SMW will have to deal with?

This is getting pretty close to saying that SMW doing better makes it look worse. You know, strength and not just overlap relationships are involved in poll results. Saying that SMW gets 60% on FF4 already gives every possible benefit of the doubt to FF4- we assumed it actually had perfect overlap with FF1, and that MM3 did not hurt SMW at all despite obvious overlap as indicating by the way it got SFF'd. If that nonetheless underrates FF4, it's because of some other reason for a fluke, not because of LFF.

What makes the R2-performance as credible or reliable as SMW/FF in R1?

We've seen numerous cases of the obvious favorite underperforming in round 1. Admittedly, however, that is not at all conclusive. Personally, I expect somewhere between those results is the truth.

If you want to toss out the Mario games' round 2 results though, and go off of round 1......you should probably call CT a big favorite over SM64 while you're at it. Going through SOTN's round 1 performance, CT is projected to get.....something like 58% on Mario 64. Not that there's anything wrong with that! (believe)
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

This is getting pretty close to saying that SMW doing better makes it look worse.

Didn't you know? More votes means you're weaker indirectly.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

There's a reasonable chance that having a weaker game you can SFF hard will make you look stronger in relation to the other options than usual since SMW/SM64/SSBB blew past our expectations, and I've gotta buy it for now since SMW beat FF and FF2/4 worse than just FF.

Then Mario 3/Mario World sure are lucky Sonic 1 is in the poll, huh?
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RPGuy netbook remix

Oh you Nintendo freaks are just impossible.
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Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

''Super Mario World/Final Fantasy round 1 is literally the only good match that pre-FFVII Square has had.''

CT and SoM both looked great in their first round matches, and FFIV looked fine.

Percentages might end up as something like...

SMB3: 33%
FFIV: 30%
SMW: 29%
MM3: 8%
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.

FF4 is going to be hurt by SMW irregardless

Like how SMW hurt FF? Wait, they're different systems...like how SMB3 hurt FF in 2004 then?
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BT > Harrich
lol me

Super Mario World/Final Fantasy round 1 is literally the only good match that pre-FFVII Square has had. That happens to also be the only "okay" match that a non-Galaxy core Mario title has had. Maybe there's something there.

You bring up a good point here. Has any Final Fantasy other than FF1 in that first match really impressed this contest? The only Square entities that have looked impressive are the Kingdom Hearts games.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147

I *love* old Square. Doesn't change the fact that it's looked terrible this contest. I mean, what would you take FFVI to get on Mario World at this point?
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RPGuy netbook remix

FF8 was impressive in both rounds, and CT was impressive in round 1.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

If you want to toss out the Mario games' round 2 results though, and go off of round 1......you should probably call CT a big favorite over SM64 while you're at it. Going through SOTN's round 1 performance, CT is projected to get.....something like 58% on Mario 64. Not that there's anything wrong with that! (believe)

I probably would if it wasn't for FF7, but I don't know if GE is going to hurt SM64 that bad or not. Either way, tomorrow could tell us a lot about that match.


Then Mario 3/Mario World sure are lucky Sonic 1 is in the poll, huh?

We don't know if two games can benefit from SFF'ing the same game in the same match or not, plus Sonic didn't exactly lose a lot of percentage from R1 to SMB3's introduction in R2. I would consider Sonic more of an obstacle for SMB3/SMW than a game that'll get embarrassed, though I think it'll be pretty small either way from Sonic. Besides, it's the only/last Genesis game...it should do "well" enough.
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BT > Harrich
lol me

There could be no greater satisfaction to come from this contest than that round 2 match with SMW and FFIV to be proven oh so wrong.

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a metal slime appears