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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 726

MetricTrout | Posted 5/24/2009 9:31:57 PM | message detail
Hmm... anyone think that SMB3 > SMW this round, but SMW > SM3 next round with all those NES games in the poll?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/24/2009 9:32:18 PM | message detail
The day will kill Tetris afterwards, if MM2 is not completely dead by the time it arrives.
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Meeks54 | Posted 5/24/2009 9:33:11 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #251
Hmm... anyone think that SMB3 > SMW this round, but SMW > SM3 next round with all those NES games in the poll?




I have LoZ/SMW next round now.

LoZ easy win with the crazy Mario SFF. Super Mario World easy place with the crazy NES SFF.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/24/2009 9:33:28 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #251
Hmm... anyone think that SMB3 > SMW this round, but SMW > SM3 next round with all those NES games in the poll?


Only if it was already super close tomorrow. If it was anything more then 53-47, no.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/24/2009 9:34:15 PM | message detail
Day vote should be a lot stronger for MM then Tetris, no?

Probably
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:34:36 PM | message detail
I don't know why you think Mario 3 and Mario 1 are going to LFF worse just because they shared a system. You're talking about three games with a 95%+ playrate.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:35:25 PM | message detail
And MM2 did noticeably better against Tetris during the day vote compared to any other time. The same is true for Zelda against Mario 1 as well.
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BDawg | Posted 5/24/2009 9:35:36 PM | message detail
Well, it's gonna be ugly since they were losing percentage to Donkey Kong last round but yeah Mega Man rebounded and Tetris did not.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/24/2009 9:35:48 PM | message detail
If three Mario games make it to the next round, Zelda would be the overwhelming favorite.

Mario
Mario
Mario
Zelda

Just stare at that for a few seconds.
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/24/2009 9:36:02 PM | message detail
Nobody knows for sure whats going to happen tomorrow. The arrogance confounds me.


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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/24/2009 9:36:11 PM | message detail
Finally, Mega Man 2 drops in percentage for the first time since the freeze.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/24/2009 9:37:36 PM | message detail
I think 3 = World at this point in terms of indirect strength.

Sure, Zelda will stand out, but at this point, I think it is just too weak to do anything about it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:37:41 PM | message detail
Nobody knows for sure whats going to happen tomorrow. The arrogance confounds me.

...Did hochi just say that?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/24/2009 9:38:17 PM | message detail
Good job Zelda, it's going to end up around 48% probably this time, and achieve the respectability it could not last round.

I don't think SMW has much of a chance against SMB3 tomorrow or next round.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/24/2009 9:38:44 PM | message detail
With Tetris's horrible day vote, it's going to need at least a 2000 vote lead to hold off Mega Man 2 before it tries making a comeback.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:39:05 PM | message detail
And I think Mario 3 is going to prove how much of a fluke Mario World's performance was last round. That was not legit strength.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/24/2009 9:40:55 PM | message detail
What happened to the arguments of 1=3 indirectly? Even if that's been rethought, the original Mario still shouldn't be very far behind 3 and World at all. Zelda just stands out too much there, and Mario 3 probably can't pull an OoT and SFF the other series games into negative percent. I think most everyone would take Zelda in that scenario.

Regardless, I'm still hoping FFIV throws a much needed wrench into that machine.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:43:13 PM | message detail
Even if that's been rethought, the original Mario still shouldn't be very far behind 3 and World at all

It'll still get killed by Mario 3 and Mario World, just like Zelda 1 would if you stuck it up against OoT and LTTP.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/24/2009 9:44:50 PM | message detail
I still think Mario 1 starts to falter when facing *any* modern game, Nintendo or not. Beating up on games like these through name recognition is one thing, beating up games people care about is entirely different.

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MetricTrout | Posted 5/24/2009 9:45:51 PM | message detail
What happened to the arguments of 1=3 indirectly?

Those arguments were obviously wrong.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:46:06 PM | message detail
I still think Mario 1 starts to falter when facing *any* modern game, Nintendo or not.

60% on Halo, book it
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Silverflash-x | Posted 5/24/2009 9:46:09 PM | message detail
Leaderboard spot get!

Awww yeah. Number 47 for the win. :3
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/24/2009 9:47:37 PM | message detail
So what evidence suggests that Mario World's 2nd round domination was just a fluke?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/24/2009 9:48:03 PM | message detail

From: PegasusLover123 | #273
So what evidence suggests that Mario World's 2nd round domination was just a fluke?


people holding onto their 2004 stats too much thinking there is no chance smw is equal to smb3. kinda pathetic really
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/24/2009 9:48:27 PM | message detail
It's still just about impossible to tell how strong Mario 1 is indirectly. The 1=3 arguments were based basically entirely off of Zelda doing only 2% better against 1 than 3. In any case, Zelda shouldn't be so far behind Mario 3 that triple LFF can't turn around the match.
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/24/2009 9:48:28 PM | message detail
So what evidence suggests that Mario World's 2nd round domination was just a fluke?


Round 1 where SMW got only like 56% on FF

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/24/2009 9:48:35 PM | message detail
Zelda stall! Zelda took advantage of Tetris and MM2 bombing on that update where as SMB stayed around normal.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:48:43 PM | message detail
Generally you don't go 10% higher when facing stronger competition, nor do you beat two games combined by more than you beat one game the previous round. That performance is all kinds of fishy.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/24/2009 9:49:21 PM | message detail
None. SMW's second round performance was legit. The first SMW/FF was a fluke, given the insane number of votes its received.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:49:26 PM | message detail
people holding onto their 2004 stats too much thinking there is no chance smw is equal to smb3. kinda pathetic really

The only statheads are the Mario World = Mario 3 people.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/24/2009 9:49:48 PM | message detail
people holding onto their 2004 stats too much thinking there is no chance smw is equal to smb3. kinda pathetic really

Or they just look at the 2009 round 1 match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:50:03 PM | message detail
The first SMW/FF was a fluke, given the insane number of votes its received.

Considering those extra votes went largely to Battletoads...
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/24/2009 9:52:53 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3481
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3485
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3492

SM64 and SSBB, much like SMW, also blew past our R2-expectations under a similar situation of having a much weaker SFF'able opponent tag along...three's a trend, I believe we say. Between that and Knowing FF2/4 beat the hell out of FF, you have to at least assume FF2/4 will be a bit tougher than FF in R1...which got 44.54% against SMW. Throw in SMB3 (and Sonic 1 if you think it's gonna hurt Nintendo tomorrow), and FF2/4 has to be pretty much guaranteed to advance. I like it for first place over SMB3.

SMW's going to look VERY different from R2; it'll be a wake-up call to the people ignoring the FF/FF2 split and MM3-SFF'ing.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/24/2009 9:53:09 PM | message detail
Mario 64 has just as much reason to have been a fluke as Mario World does. In both cases, Mario did way way better against its round 1 opponent. We shall see, but I feel pretty good about both Mario games advancing right now- if FFIV is really closer than last round showed, it's probably not by enough that the LFF will be enough to overcome it. I don't expect SMB3/SMW LFF to be very strong, and I don't expect SMW to get SFF'd when it is the game that needs votes.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:53:35 PM | message detail
and FF2/4 has to be pretty much guaranteed to advance.

I disagree.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/24/2009 9:54:49 PM | message detail
I swear to god if we get FFIV > Sonic I will crap out my wang
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/24/2009 9:55:26 PM | message detail
ff4 is weak as hell. the LFF between SMB3 and SMW won't be enough for FF4 to get 40% on either of them let alone advance
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:55:31 PM | message detail
FFIV beats Sonic no matter what so get ready for some pain
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/24/2009 9:55:44 PM | message detail
Those 2500 votes to Battletoads do not explain how SMW and FF got an insane number of votes as well.

SMW actually scored fewer votes in the second round than the first, which makes sense when you are facing stronger competition. The insane votals in the first round combined with the fact that FF/FF2 just collapsed in round 2 clearly suggests a FF overperformance in the first round.

Which makes sense. Being the first Squaresoft match and being named "Final Fantasy" probably means that FF got a good bit of franchise voting in the first round.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:56:55 PM | message detail
FF breaking getting mid-40s on SMW was expected considering it got 40% on Mario 3.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/24/2009 9:57:00 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #289
Those 2500 votes to Battletoads do not explain how SMW and FF got an insane number of votes as well.

SMW actually scored fewer votes in the second round than the first, which makes sense when you are facing stronger competition. The insane votals in the first round combined with the fact that FF/FF2 just collapsed in round 2 clearly suggests a FF overperformance in the first round.

Which makes sense. Being the first Squaresoft match and being named "Final Fantasy" probably means that FF got a good bit of franchise voting in the first round.


I'll grant you that such a theory is easily possible, but what's to stop FFIV from getting that same support against a Nintendo joygasm?
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/24/2009 9:57:33 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 5/24/2009 9:58:26 PM | message detail
FF2/4 nearly doubled a game that got 44.5% against SMW, and then SMB3 and another old-school platformer will be there. I know so much of the site has played those three games, but that doesn't mean everybody's going to like them as much as FF2/4 or like platformers like they do RPGs. I would take FF1 to advance tomorrow despite what happened in R2 -- it's as favorable of a circumstance as FF2/4 could have asked for.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/24/2009 9:58:52 PM | message detail
FF4 is almost as weak, if not weaker, than Tetris. Just compare their performances on Mega Man games. And then consider that in all likelihood, Mega Man 2 > Mega Man 3, as today's match proves.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 9:59:14 PM | message detail
FF2/4 nearly doubled a game that got 44.5% against SMW

FFVIII nearly doubled a game that got 30% on OoT.

FFVIII for top 5 here we go.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/24/2009 10:00:18 PM | message detail
Ooh, I can play that one too! GoldenEye nearly doubled a game that got 30% on FFVII, FFVII > 007 next round confirmed!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2009 10:02:02 PM | message detail
Hey, nice cut for Zelda to end the Power Hour.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/24/2009 10:02:07 PM | message detail
Go on and insist that FFIV is on a level with Tetris if you so desire!

I think people are overrating the effect of LFF here- SMB3 and SMW are not FF1 and FF4- they're not going act as if they have 100% overlap. FF4 needs SMB3 to turn on the SFF here, or hope last round was a really really big fluke.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/24/2009 10:02:07 PM | message detail
Leon, what the heck are you doing arguing against Final Fantasy, anyway? Just pretend Squall had a time paradox's cameo in IV or something.

I mean gaw-lee...
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/24/2009 10:02:16 PM | message detail
massive zelda cut to end the power hour
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