GameFAQs Contests

This is good... isn't it?


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko

Leon, I tip my hit to you for a wonderful 500th post.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

augh bidoof'd
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg

SNAAAAAAAAAAAKE!!!
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http://www.backloggery.com/bretteagles
http://backloggery.com/bretteagles/sig.gif

mgs4 hype and bidoof

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a metal slime appears

Brawl wasn't only disappointing in that 1v1 against MGS4. Every time it was in one of those polls it was disappointing. It's done much better now, and I'd be shocked if MGS4 could even keep it competitive next round.

Brawl had exactly one GOTY poll without MGS4 in it, and it owned everything.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

So...looks like Halo 3 might fall under 30% against MGS4 here.

GTA IV vs. Halo 3: Who you got?
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Unless Halo 3 has some killer ASV this site has pretty much given the finger to all Halo fanboys.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

Standout Factor is just another name for LFF, unless we're talking about Lopen's theory of people seeing FF/Zelda and voting against it.

It remains to be seen whether Brawl and MGS4 are strong or weak, though I rather fear we won't get any definitive conclusions thanks to the format. I'd peg Brawl for top 15 and MGS4 for top 20 though, as I have since the GOTY polls.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

You know, Brawl's insane performance yesterday might be explained by arguing that all three of its opponents lost something (to it). Galaxy got SFF-killed, CoD4 got overshadowed by a stronger casual multiplayer game, and GTAIV lost its "nothing else to vote for" status.

It also explains the embarrassment Halo 1 received a few days ago and how Diablo was able to take advantage of it for a great performance - unlike CoD4, it had nothing in common with Smash or that match's other two games.

Or maybe I'm just insane who knows.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

To summarize how the vote total stats went, Mario Galaxy kept 52%, GTAIV 62%, CoD4 66%, and Brawl 80%. Congratulations, Mario Galaxy, for proving this site doesn't care about any of your 6th/7th gen games. I get the feeling that Mario Galaxy had the rSFF Pokemon DP to advance in the first place.

I think you're looking way too much into it, personally !

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a metal slime appears

Yesterday's chart:

Time | SSBB | GTA IV | CoD4 | Galaxy | Demographic
EBV | 40.03% | 15.10% | 24.50% | 20.36% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 41.74% | 16.46% | 25.06% | 16.74% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 39.60% | 19.14% | 24.57% | 16.69% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 38.02% | 19.93% | 24.26% | 17.80% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 41.72% | 17.08% | 25.91% | 15.28% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 41.93% | 18.02% | 25.83% | 14.23% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 42.78% | 17.06% | 26.59% | 13.57% | (22:00-24:00)

Brawl with a good Power Hour and a good day vote. Didn't even drop off much with the night this time. CoD4 is pretty balanced all throughout, but the night vote was its worst time. GTA IV had a solid night vote after an awful board vote and Power Hour. Man, Galaxy's got cult game trends. Great board vote, but what an awful day vote. Seriously, it's almost like it's not even a Nintendo game.

Yesterday's stats:

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 50.00%
Call of Duty 4 – 38.24%
Grand Theft Auto IV – 30.44%
Super Mario Galaxy – 27.48%

Upper Half Stats

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 50.00%
Call of Duty 4 – 38.24%
Grand Theft Auto IV (Round 1) – 35.76%
Super Mario Galaxy (Round 1) – 33.88%
Grand Theft Auto IV (Round 2) – 30.44%
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl – 30.23%
Super Mario Galaxy (Round 2) – 27.48%
Street Fighter IV – 22.14%
Persona 4 – 22.13%
Team Fortress 2 – 19.60%
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Persona 4 – 22.13%
Team Fortress 2 – 19.60%

victory
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

Brilliant 500, Leon
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Man, who would've guessed that Fallout 3/Portal would be the closest match after one hour?
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

More proof that nobody really cares about post-1996 Mario games.

MGS4 dropping percentage like crazy now.

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a metal slime appears

From: LeonhartFour
Man, who would've guessed that Fallout 3/Portal would be the closest match after one hour?

Over here!
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:D

Oh right.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

MGS4 power hour is over look out Snake Brawl's comin' for ya
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg

that's not that surprising. the only other option was Halo/Portal but given their trends I would have expected Halo to be beat down early.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg

We need some Snake vs. Snake action next round.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Well i gotta clock off for tonight.

But assuming Halo 3 is dead last in this match at the end, just how much did the Halo games weaken from the previous games contest?
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

Aw yeah cut.
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:D

Just think if Snake had won the last character contest: Snake vs Naked Snake vs Old Snake vs Iroquois Pliskin bonus match
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

From: RPGuy96 | #028
Just think if Snake had won the last character contest: Snake vs Naked Snake vs Old Snake vs Iroquois Pliskin bonus match

Its not like cjayc was against spoilers in polls, so I doubt Bacon wouldn't be either
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Fallout 3 vs. Oblivion

Which bethesda game you take to win? Oblivion got 44% against MGS3 and Fallout 3 is looking to get about 41% on MGS4
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

I'd take Fallout 3 pretty easily. Oblivion's impressed, but I'm not sold on its opponents being worth too much and I don't think it'd be beating Portal right now.
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.

I'm not sure how this is supposed to be a bad performance for MGS4. Maybe a foreboding one seeing as how if FO3 can't stand up to MGS4 it bodes poorly for how well MGS4 can stand up to Brawl, but it's doing similarly on Portal (which I've been touting as a beast before it ever got a single vote) and doing much, MUCH better on FO3 by pure numbers. It's not like Brawl's number on the Wii GotY didn't seem a lot more imposing than MGS4 in the PS3 GotY, and those three matches were tight every time over every day.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

This is a very good performance from MGS4. I'm still just hoping this whole division turns out to be crap as soon as it runs into RE4, but I obviously wouldn't bet on that.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Oh dizzamn MGS4. Looks like my Fallout 3 hype train crashed and burned! I as the conductor just got knocked the **** out like Rashad Evans!
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Yeah MGS4 should be the favorite over RE4. But I wouldn't bet too much on that - there's a significant amount of uncertainty there.

Although, if MGS4>RE4, that pretty much makes it the favorite over Twilight Princess. Hmm. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

Really, these newer strong games should be much like the 128 division top games (is that what it was called?) back in 2K4 - pretty much in the same range as each other, not too far apart.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

MGS4 is strong.....or then again the other 3 games could be garbage..............here it looks stronger than MGS3,but that game's oppponents were probably stronger.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455

Looks like no one took notice of that Halo 3 cut on Portal, which occured at the 2:46 update.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

Because... it didnt really matter.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Heh, MGS4 loves this deep night vote. Getting low 40% updates
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

odst hype boosting halo 3?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455

I only got full points in 4 matches this round, assuming Fallout 3 holds up. Damn.
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170/248 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Metal Gear Solid 4 > Fallout 3 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4

@ffmasterjose: Amazingly I'm in the same boat as you, except that one of the round 2 matches that I got right in my bracket was on accident. Here's what I have for rounds 3 and after.

The Legend of Zelda > Super Mario Bros.
Super Mario Bros. 3 > Street Fighter II
Final Fantasy VI > Zelda: A Link to the Past
Final Fantasy VII > Chrono Trigger
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid
Halo > Super Smash Bros. Melee
Resident Evil 4 > Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
Metal Gear Solid 4 > Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Super Mario Bros. 3 > The Legend of Zelda
Final Fantasy VII > Zelda: A Link to the Past
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid
Super Smash Bros. Brawl > Resident Evil 4
Final Fantasy VII > Zelda: A Link to the Past
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid
Final Fantasy VII > Zelda: Ocarina of Time (finals)

Favorites for round 3 and after (assuming Fallout 3 holds up)

Super Mario Bros. > Tetris
Super Mario Bros. 3 > Super Mario World
Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Metroid
Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid
Final Fantasy X > Super Smash Bros. Melee
Resident Evil 4 > Metal Gear Solid 3
Metal Gear Solid 4 > Fallout 3
Super Mario Bros. 3 > Super Mario Bros.
Chrono Trigger > Zelda: A Link to the Past
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid
Resident Evil 4 > Metal Gear Solid 4
Chrono Trigger > Zelda: A Link to the Past
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Chrono Trigger

Done deal.

fallout 3 just stalled mgs4 LOL
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Character Battle V (2006): 37th place

Why would Chrono Trigger beat SM64 when it couldn't without FF7 in the poll?
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

Well, I have FF7 > CT in my bracket, and my prediction is FF7 > SM64. Lets save it for the full writeup, m'kay?

And yes I am voting for Chrono Trigger.

*listens to music from Total Annihilation*

The biggest wildcard of a match is Mario 3's match. I know it sounds crazy, but I predict Mario 3 > Mario World.

Uhm I'm feeling lazy right now, so...

...well, this match is quite straightforward. Super Mario wins, Legend of Zelda takes 2nd. The other two will be a good bit behind. Tetris deserves to make it out of here alive, as it's aged best out of every game in this division, but it just won't, because this site doesn't care about puzzle games.

Prediction: Super Mario Bros. > The Legend of Zelda
Tetris - 15%, Mega Man 2 - 10%, Super Mario Bros. - 40%, The Legend of Zelda - 35%
Bracket: The Legend of Zelda > Super Mario Bros.
Favorites: Super Mario Bros. > Tetris (changed my mind about this mid-contest BTW)
Favorites Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Tetris

Stars and Turds of Round 2: 1972-1988 & 1989-1991

Star of the Quarter: Super Mario Bros.
Starting off with what some may consider as an upset. Before the contest Super Mario Bros. was considered to be the fourth strongest Mario game, but to be a good tier below World and 64. Its performance against The Legend of Zelda was almost as good as Super Mario Bros. 3. You can blame SFF all you want, but it was able to do that while Super Mario Bros. 3 wasn’t. After the match Super Mario Bros. is now on the same tier as World and 64 and in contention for the top 10.

Runner-Up: Super Mario World
Winning a LFF match was always expected, but the amount Super Mario World won by is what makes it truly impressive. Combine Final Fantasy IV with Final Fantasy and you get a lower percent than what Final Fantasy was able to get in round 1. With the performances of the Mario series the debate for the strongest game of the series has been opened. Also getting the highest percent of the round is also impressive since nobody expected it.

Turd of the Quarter: Final Fantasy
So much for keeping close with Final Fantasy IV, I guess the game does run on a lot of franchise votes. To make matters worse all the SFF votes apparently went to Super Mario World rather than Final Fantasy IV. Well at least it didn’t lose to a SFF Mega Man 3. Even with the tables turned Final Fantasy IV may have troubles defeating Super Mario World next round.

Runner-Up: Street Fighter II
He was the turd of the division last round and Street Fighter II still managed to fail to our lowered expectations. With Super Mario Bros. 3 Street Fighter II was supposed to take advantage of the LFF and defeat Sonic 1. Well all it did was perform a bit better against the blue blur throwing into question the amount of fanbase overlap Mario and Sonic really have. The entire series was unable to have at least one good contest match.

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248

hey, I was planning on doing a mini-writeup today. you beat me to it!

yours will be a lot more indepth, I'll just make a full post or so and get it done with.
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xyzzy

I did it last round and so did others (I think you did one too) so anyone can do one if they want.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248

Stars and Turds of Round 2: 1992-1994 & 1995-1997

Star of the Quarter: Super Mario 64
We all knew the game was SFF back in 2004 and it was able to prove its strength last round by almost doubling Castlevania, but that didn’t prepare us for what was to come. In what seems to be fight for Mario superiority Super Mario 64 not only comes close to Chrono Trigger it outright defeats the game. This is a round after Chrono Trigger showed off that its strength is more or less there and could contend with A Link to the Past on neutral ground. Was this a fluke or are we setting up for an all Mario brawl (with Final Fantasy VII) in the semi-finals?

Runner-Up: GoldenEye 007
While there was no contention for this spot that doesn’t make GoldenEye’s performance any less impressive. Despite Mario Kart 64 GoldenEye was able to put up 33% against one of the two strongest games on the site. While the game won’t be a top 10 like the list suggested it does seem it could break into the top 20 which is still pretty good. It’s a shame that one of the two games that could SFF GoldenEye is in the next match.

Turd of the Quarter: Castlevania Symphony of the Night
This quarter didn’t really have a game that deserves this award, sure there were some underperformances, but there was no one that was notable. While Symphony of the Night had no chance in its match that doesn’t mean it has the right to underperform like crazy, especially in a match as neutral as this one. Maybe Super Mario 64 overperformed, we’ll see next round, but that doesn’t change Symphony of the Night’s performance in round 2.

Runner-Up: Super Mario Kart
So much for the “I’ll get SFF less since I’m more different” approach. Super Mario Kart lost almost by the same amount as it did in round 1. SFF matches always tend to bring in whacky results yet for once everything went normal which is bad news for Super Mario Kart. Overall Super Mario Kart did better than we expected, but the game was the favourite to advance to round 3. Like I’ve said before there’s slim pickings for turds in this quarter.

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248