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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 725

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:23:52 PM | message detail
Honestly, if any of these games wasn't going to hold up to its 2008 GOTY performance, it was Fallout 3.

Not to say it won't do better than this when it's all said and done, but it had the biggest potential to drop off out of Brawl, MGS4, and itself.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:23:58 PM | message detail
What do you think of Magus vs. Frog, then? Magus should be a good deal stronger, it's just that he excels at failure making him look worse than he really is while Frog pulls off miracle victories that make him look better than he is.
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Gnomestone | Posted 5/23/2009 9:24:00 PM | message detail
I'm surprised Portal is doing so well. I expected it to be a MGS and Fallout show, but Portal is doing well.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:25:07 PM | message detail
Honestly, if any of these games wasn't going to hold up to its 2008 GOTY performance, it was Fallout 3.

Not to say it won't do better than this when it's all said and done, but it had the biggest potential to drop off out of Brawl, MGS4, and itself.


I'm not disagreeing with you that this was expected, but it will still be funny if Portal took the lead at some point.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:25:23 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 is definitely the kind of game to drop off after its release. It did well in the GotY polls because it was recent. It's still got a bit of a punch behind it, but it's certainly not gonna be able to hang within a couple % of Brawl and MGS4 anymore.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:25:30 PM | message detail
Portal cut.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
Master Moltar | Posted 5/23/2009 9:25:30 PM | message detail
and it begins
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 48 - Bracket: MGS4 > F3 - Vote: MGS4 (167/248)
transience | Posted 5/23/2009 9:25:36 PM | message detail
ha. Fallout sux confirmed
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:25:41 PM | message detail
"whoops"
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:25:45 PM | message detail
Uh...is Portal supposed to be making 24 vote cuts?
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Xcarvenger | Posted 5/23/2009 9:25:46 PM | message detail
cake'd
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:25:50 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #404
Honestly, if any of these games wasn't going to hold up to its 2008 GOTY performance, it was Fallout 3.

Not to say it won't do better than this when it's all said and done, but it had the biggest potential to drop off out of Brawl, MGS4, and itself.


I'm not disagreeing with you that this was expected, but it will still be funny if Portal took the lead at some point.


If it did, it may keep it. Fallout 3 is a night dominated game (it was winning against MGS4 and actually took the leader over SSBB at the dead hours in the goty poll), so if Portal takes the lead at night, it may be over for it.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/23/2009 9:25:57 PM | message detail
So

uh

...huh

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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:26:05 PM | message detail
Brackets are over.

Portal has arrived.
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Aww **** yes.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/23/2009 9:26:44 PM | message detail
this contest has just gotten a bit more ridiculous
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Today's prediction: Nanomachines 34.44% - Fallout 28.58% - Halo 3 19.60% - Portal 17.38%
Status:
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:26:55 PM | message detail
The funny thing is that this isn't really Portal overperforming or anything. This is Fallout 3 flopping.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:26:56 PM | message detail
Portal coming back? Could be interesting!
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:26:57 PM | message detail
If it did, it may keep it. Fallout 3 is a night dominated game (it was winning against MGS4 and actually took the leader over SSBB at the dead hours in the goty poll), so if Portal takes the lead at night, it may be over for it.

Portal seems to be a night game too.

Halo 3 is going to tear up the morning.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:27:06 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #412
If it did, it may keep it. Fallout 3 is a night dominated game (it was winning against MGS4 and actually took the leader over SSBB at the dead hours in the goty poll), so if Portal takes the lead at night, it may be over for it.


Winning updates against MGS4 at night I mean
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:28:03 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 is still winning this, just for the record.

But yeah, pretty bad performance here.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:28:08 PM | message detail
Halo's not a morning vote game. It's all ASV. The game that will probably take the most advantage of the morning vote is Fallout 3, actually.
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syco_coaster | Posted 5/23/2009 9:28:24 PM | message detail
I will gladly lose points to Portal winning.
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Current Score: 188
Today's pick: MGS4 > Fallout 3
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:28:42 PM | message detail
These trends make no sense. Portal rising from the board vote? Fallout 3 dying?

Its weird.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:29:00 PM | message detail
Halo's not a morning vote game. It's all ASV. The game that will probably take the most advantage of the morning vote is Fallout 3, actually.

Weekend, the ASV is stretched across the day.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:30:08 PM | message detail
The morning vote is more of an extended night vote on the weekend anyway, so yeah. Halo 3 won't do anything then either.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:30:35 PM | message detail
... Portal is going to win, isn't it?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:30:51 PM | message detail
Halo's weekend day vote isn't all that amazing. Actually, if you look at the day vote as percentage gained from morning to the end, it probably doesn't look so dominant on weekdays either. Nintendo, for example, will gain some with the morning and then more with the ASV, while Halo gains nothing with the morning and rocks the ASV.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:30:55 PM | message detail
If the upset happens I think we've just found our new turd of the round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:31:04 PM | message detail
Take the lead, maybe. Win, probably not.
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transience | Posted 5/23/2009 9:31:34 PM | message detail
Halo 3 - 32% (and climbing?) on MGS4
Halo - 33% on Melee
Halo 2 - 38% on MGS3
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/23/2009 9:31:37 PM | message detail
Wow. I'd love for Portal to actually accomplish this, but such a shame that its competition next round dooms it from going all Starcraft.
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ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 9:31:45 PM | message detail
I don't think Fallout is going to end up losing here, but it's not too surprising that it's not living up to its GOTY poll showing. Fallout 3 is definitely the kind of 'game of the month' sort of thing that's big when it comes out and then falls further and further out of the mindset of most people. It's kind of like Gears of War, or most other big Xbox games.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:31:48 PM | message detail
Actually, if you look at the day vote as percentage gained from morning to the end, it probably doesn't look so dominant on weekdays either.

It's the jump from the DSV to the ASV that's the barometer for ASV power, more than anything.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:31:57 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #427
Halo's weekend day vote isn't all that amazing. Actually, if you look at the day vote as percentage gained from morning to the end, it probably doesn't look so dominant on weekdays either. Nintendo, for example, will gain some with the morning and then more with the ASV, while Halo gains nothing with the morning and rocks the ASV.


It makes sense. The BSV block is typically the youngest demographic so they don't like shooters as much.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:32:33 PM | message detail
Halo 3 - 32% (and climbing?) on MGS4
Halo - 33% on Melee
Halo 2 - 38% on MGS3


Halo 2 strongest Halo confirmed
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:32:40 PM | message detail
Halo > Halo 3 > Halo 2 looks about right.
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ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 9:33:16 PM | message detail
Halo > Halo 3 > > Halo 2 looks like the order of strength there.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:33:41 PM | message detail
Halo > Halo 3 > Halo 2 looks about right.

Agree.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:34:07 PM | message detail
Seems at least we were right about that order of games unlike GTA
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:34:17 PM | message detail
Actually, I doubt the difference between the three is that great.
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transience | Posted 5/23/2009 9:34:23 PM | message detail
MGS4 >> MGS3 then
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:34:41 PM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsCrono
... Portal is going to win, isn't it?

You're learning.
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:D
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:34:56 PM | message detail
MGS4 >> MGS3 was pretty much a given, I thought.
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ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 9:35:07 PM | message detail
Nah. There's a clear difference in strength between each game. MGS4 isn't on Melee's level.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:35:12 PM | message detail
It's the jump from the DSV to the ASV that's the barometer for ASV power, more than anything.

But Day Vote =/= ASV

It makes sense. The BSV block is typically the youngest demographic so they don't like shooters as much

I prefer to think of it as the Nintendo fanbase being dedicated and getting up early before school to vote, while the Xbox fanbase doesn't care as much and waits until afterward. Or, if you want a more reasonable explanation, perhaps it's because Nintendo is stronger in Europe than Xbox, and the morning vote is more European.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:35:25 PM | message detail
MGS1 and MGS4 being stronger than MGS2 and MGS3 was pretty likely before the contest. It was just the order of the pairs in each case that was debatable.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:35:37 PM | message detail
Crisis averted?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:35:38 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 is done playing around
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:35:40 PM | message detail
What the gris was that.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:35:46 PM | message detail
Now this is more like it.
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