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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 725

charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 8:30:44 PM | message detail
A SFF'd L4D doesn't. A full strength L4D does.

So why will Portal not finish closer to FO3 than SFFd L4D in this match?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 159/240
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 8:31:25 PM | message detail
More like GTA IV overperformed in round one due to a lack of competition. Makes more sense than nonsense LFF factors.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 8:31:32 PM | message detail
GTA4 probably got a lot of "who the hell cares" votes last round, because there were essentially only two games in that poll.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 8:31:41 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #301
A SFF'd L4D doesn't. A full strength L4D does.

So why will Portal not finish closer to FO3 than SFFd L4D in this match?


Because Portal was very independent last match. This time, the biggest PC game of the last year is in the same match.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/23/2009 8:32:35 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'll buy a combination of both factors.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 8:33:13 PM | message detail
Because Portal was very independent last match. This time, the biggest PC game of the last year is in the same match.

Except that Portal won't be SFF worse than L4D, but I guess we'll see in 30 minutes.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 159/240
red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 8:33:26 PM | message detail
Nintendo's done very well this round- it's had a string of seemingly unexplainable improved performances from round 1. Can't wait 'till next round- hopefully we'll get a Square resurgence!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 8:33:48 PM | message detail
It could be if this fabled "Last Place Factor" shows its ugly face ... !
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 8:35:50 PM | message detail
It could be if this fabled "Last Place Factor" shows its ugly face ... !

Except that GTAIV isn't in last.

Third Place Factor!

Also CoD4 is getting Second Place Factored while Brawl is experiencing a healthy dose of First Place Factor
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 159/240
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 8:35:57 PM | message detail
Too bad Portal won't be in last place.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 8:36:27 PM | message detail
But Galaxy, not GTA4, is in last place! But yeah, as I said, overperformance due to apathy is basically the flip side of Last Place Factor, at least of one of its causes, anyway.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 8:36:28 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #309
It could be if this fabled "Last Place Factor" shows its ugly face ... !

Except that GTAIV isn't in last.

Third Place Factor!

Also CoD4 is getting Second Place Factored while Brawl is experiencing a healthy dose of First Place Factor


I meant for Portal.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 8:59:26 PM | message detail
I expect Portal to be in the lead for about a minute over Fallout 3. All downhill for then ... !
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:00:16 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4 14.29%

1
Portal 57.14%

4
Fallout 3 14.29%

1
Halo 3 14.29%

1
TOTAL VOTES 7

Sweet, first MGS4 vote!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/23/2009 9:00:19 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4 10%

1
Portal 50%

5
Fallout 3 20%

2
Halo 3 20%

2
TOTAL VOTES 10

This was a triumph.
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/23/2009 9:00:30 PM | message detail
wow fallout board vote
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 48 - Bracket: MGS4 > F3 - Vote: MGS4 (167/248)
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:00:37 PM | message detail
fallout has such a bad board vote xD
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/23/2009 9:00:50 PM | message detail
ha, Portal couldn't even lead Fallout for a minute

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Today's prediction: Nanomachines 34.44% - Fallout 28.58% - Halo 3 19.60% - Portal 17.38%
Status:
transience | Posted 5/23/2009 9:00:55 PM | message detail
'kay this one's over

all that's left to keep an eye on is maybe Fallout 3 > MGS4
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:01:01 PM | message detail
I'm liking FO3 here.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:01:10 PM | message detail
LOL Halo 3
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Gaddswell | Posted 5/23/2009 9:01:15 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4 33.33% 40
Portal 22.5% 27
Fallout 3 23.33% 28
Halo 3 20.83% 25
TOTAL VOTES 120

Portal with the board vote!
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:01:15 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3492&region=SAM

Brawl > GTAIV

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3492&region=ASI

GTAIV > Brawl
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 159/240
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/23/2009 9:01:21 PM | message detail
Halol 3
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:01:30 PM | message detail
Fallout's keeping it close with MGS4 now.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:01:44 PM | message detail
So much for Portal being anything.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 159/240
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/23/2009 9:01:53 PM | message detail
I think LOL Portal is more appropriate right now
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Today's prediction: Nanomachines 34.44% - Fallout 28.58% - Halo 3 19.60% - Portal 17.38%
Status:
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:02:03 PM | message detail
Don't forget, last round against a batch of Xbox games, Fallout 3 gained almost 4% from the freeze.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:02:25 PM | message detail
or nm, Fallout 3 is dying now.
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ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 9:02:37 PM | message detail
This one is over. Nothing surprising here.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/23/2009 9:02:55 PM | message detail

From: GrapefruitKing | #327
I think LOL Portal is more appropriate right now


People expected Portal to contend?
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/23/2009 9:02:59 PM | message detail
At least wait for Portal's board vote to trail off before going "lol portal"!
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 48 - Bracket: MGS4 > F3 - Vote: MGS4 (167/248)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:03:01 PM | message detail
Nah, I think MGS4's safe.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:03:13 PM | message detail
Or maybe FO3 had the board vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 159/240
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:03:41 PM | message detail
I'm liking Halo 3 > Portal here atl east.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:04:14 PM | message detail
The poll is a lie.

Portal really in first.
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Honest.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/23/2009 9:04:14 PM | message detail
Yeah, looks like I was right about Fallout being crap.

Brawl > MGS4 by comfortable margins next round.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/23/2009 9:04:29 PM | message detail
Portal fell 4% between the 5-minute mark and the end, in Round 1
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Today's prediction: Nanomachines 34.44% - Fallout 28.58% - Halo 3 19.60% - Portal 17.38%
Status:
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:04:51 PM | message detail
Yeah, looks like BT's going to stick his foot in his mouth again.

Fallout 3 will look better than this at the end, but it ain't winning.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/23/2009 9:04:54 PM | message detail
go go go MGS4!
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transience | Posted 5/23/2009 9:05:03 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 always rises from the beginning. I'd expect it to do a bit better.

Portal's at 36% and dropping though. I'll ask again - Portal or Half-Life 2?
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:05:15 PM | message detail
Fallout's gonna recover a decent bit here, Bethesda has the worst board vote this side of FF7.

Still, boring match.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/23/2009 9:05:23 PM | message detail
MGS4 is shooting for a great performance. It's not hard to see why - Halo 3 is pure Xbox, and it's safe to assume the other two games get much more support from the 360/PC fanbase than they do from Sony.
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Majin Lou | Posted 5/23/2009 9:05:38 PM | message detail
Boring match is boring.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:05:39 PM | message detail
Portal with a 40 vote lead over Halo 3.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 159/240
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:05:58 PM | message detail
I'm guessing this ends up about 34% MGS4, and 30% Fallout 3.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:06:03 PM | message detail
MGS4 with a lead of 116 at the freeze. Fallout will make this closer, but it should be over.
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ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 9:06:04 PM | message detail
No reason to think Portal contends with Half-Life 2.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:06:08 PM | message detail
Boring match is boring. MGS4 looks pretty good here, or Fallout 3 looks pretty bad. Probably the former, considering Halo 3's getting doubled presently.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:06:18 PM | message detail
Portal's at 36% and dropping though. I'll ask again - Portal or Half-Life 2?

Half-Life 2 easily.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 159/240