GameFAQs Contests

FFX is still the favourite to hit the finals IMO. The only thing stopping it are MGS, MGS4, RE4 and LFF from FFVIII.
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On the subject of overlap, the absolute size of the overlap is not as important as the whether the overlap between two games is disproportionate to those games' overlaps with other games. For example, SMB3 has obvious massive overlap with everything thanks to its very high playership rate. That doesn't mean we're going to observe LFF between SMB3 and everything- on the contrary, it suggests we won't see it have very severe LFF with anything.
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Yes when we talk about overlap we should really talk about the potential for SFF and LFF.
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yeah, I'm not sold on Mario 3 overlapping with OOT in a harmful way.

I actually think FF7/OOT would be viewed as a 1v1 match, with the other two being "last place factor'd". I'd expect like 38-37-13-12 or something.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg

That depends on which game makes it. If Fallout 3 makes it along with FF7 for the non-Ninty side (given how an SMB game more or less has a bye to the finals from the older side), using a far-fetched example, then FF7 wins it easily. If, say, LttP makes it along with FF8 (c'mon, you know you'd want a double FF/LoZ match like that!), you'd have a tossup that might make the hall of fame.

Unless we see some shock like Fallout 3 beating MGS4 tonight, Fallout 3 isn't gonna advance far enough to do what you're saying
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Umm... Isn't LttP still the favourite to advance to the finals?
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"Umm... Isn't LttP still the favourite to advance to the finals?"

After the excellent performances by the Mario team (except for Galaxy, grrrr! *shakes fist*), not so much. It's still favored, but it isn't a lock anymore, I think.

Why would it be? Just because people have a hard on for that game, its never done anything to validate the strength people give it. Give me SMB3 or maybe even SMW over it.
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OoT/FF7/LttP/FFX

Same as pre-contest IMO. Maybe SMB3 > LttP is slightly more likely then pre-contest. And of course, potential FFX/FF8 mischief.

The contest could still go anyway.
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We're in the middle of a chain reaction!

Uh...I though the general consensus was that Mario 3 disappointed.
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
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"Unless we see some shock like Fallout 3 beating MGS4 tonight, Fallout 3 isn't gonna advance far enough to do what you're saying"

I know, Albion. I just picked the first example I could think of that would have an independent fanbase. MSG4 would be a better pick, actually. What are the chances of it advancing so far?

Might hinge on who's second in the LoZ vs. Mario fest. Or maybe it doesn't matter cause the 4th game is gonna get obliterated in the quarters anyway.
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Should I start running now?

Fun Facts Time!

Battletoads is going to outvote Mario Galaxy.
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Why would it be? Just because people have a hard on for that game, its never done anything to validate the strength people give it. Give me SMB3 or maybe even SMW over it.

It hasn't failed to meet people's expectations either. It's not as big of a favourite, but as long as LoZ stays out of the way I don't see LttP failing to place outside of the final. I guess this round will give us some insight, even though everything is stacked against LttP.
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Match XLVIII: Metal Gear Solid 4 vs. Portal vs. Fallout 3 vs. Halo 3

Last Round:

Metal Gear Solid 4 – 41.91%
Portal – 24.14%
Bioshock – 22.79%
LittleBigPlanet – 11.16%

Fallout 3 – 37.61%
Halo 3 – 26.98%
Left 4 Dead – 20.44%
Mass Effect – 14.97%

Analysis

Final match of the round and we are one step closer to repeating the 2008 GotY final poll. Since last round went more or less expected to the board’s expectations there’s nothing really stopping the expected from happening in this match. Also expect lower vote totals than usual in this match because like last round not everyone on GameFAQs has played these games.

In a repeat performance Metal Gear Solid 4 will take first. Last round the game did well and showed no reason that it could have dropped. Also without LittleBigPlanet being in the way Metal Gear Solid 4 can relax in being the only Playstation 3 exclusive game. Also with Brawl performing so well here it may need to step it up a notch in order to compete.

Finishing our trio of 2008 finalist is Fallout 3, whom will take second in order to reach the division final. Fallout 3 did well in a match that could have as well been named “Who Cares?” One thing about the GotY polls is that some games take a fall in strength for various reasons. In the future I see that happening to Fallout 3 though we could see some damage as early as this match. I guess we’ll see if that’s true.

Portal did well enough against Metal Gear Solid 4 that is could have a chance against Halo 3. That would require Fallout 3 to be a bit weaker since the GotY, but it is possible and if the two games are close there may be a rally for Portal just to get the token victory. You know the match is not interesting when you are hyping the third place match.

While the Halo series have been nothing special in this contest it would be the ultimate finger to fans of the series if Halo 3 lost to Portal. Halo 3 did look pretty good last round against Fallout 3 yet at the same time it was too close to Left 4 Dead for my liking. This could be some foreshadowing for Fallout 3, though at the same time Left 4 Dead could have passable strength.

I think Portal will do well, but come short at defeating Halo 3. Knowing the board vote Portal will probably lead and take the night vote while Halo 3 will come back during the morning vote. Also Metal Gear Solid 4 will defeat Fallout 3 by a bit more than what happen in the GotY. Watch out for my Stars and Turds of round 2 coming out tomorrow.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Metal Gear Solid 4 > Fallout 3

charmander6000’s Prediction: Metal Gear Solid 4 – 33.46%, Fallout 3 – 27.27%, Halo 3 – 20.63%, Portal – 18.64%

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I don't really like LTTP's chances anymore if Zelda 1 is there. I think I would definitely prefer it if we didn't have 2 Zelda games in the final. Part of the reason the last games contest was so great was that we had such a varied final eight and especially final four:

Final Fantasy VII
Chrono Trigger
Super Mario Bros. 3
Super Smash Bros. Melee

Ocarina of Time
A Link to the Past
Starcraft
The Legend of Zelda
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

3 Zeldas = varied?
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You know, if Big Daddy can hold Gordon Freeman back, why wouldn't Bioshock hurt Portal?

And I expect you to sling "Halo 3's in the match, that'll hurt Portal instead". No. No way. Halo 3 and Bioshock are very different games with very different fanbases. Bioshock and Half-Life have a lot more in common than Halo & Half-Life. And yes, Portal isn't Half-Life, but the two games come on the same disk, and pretty much everyone who likes one will like the other.
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are we ready for some Fallout 3 > MGS4
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3 Zeldas = varied?

It's about as varied as this site is ever going to get. We even had 1 non-Nintendo/Square game in the final 8, and 3 non FF/Zelda/Mario games.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

And yes, Portal isn't Half-Life, but the two games come on the same disk, and pretty much everyone who likes one will like the other.

If I had a dollar for every time someone said a statement like that...
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I liked Portal, but not TF2.

Just because they're on the same disc doesn't mean people are gonna be big fans of all of them.
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You know, if Big Daddy can hold Gordon Freeman back, why wouldn't Bioshock hurt Portal?

...Big Daddy didn't hold Gordon Freeman back.
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If Big daddy hurt Gordon, it was VERY minimal. And even if it did, Bioshock and Portal are different genres. Portal is a puzzle game.
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If Halo 3 loses to Portal this match, i wonder if well get less vote totals in the next best game ever contest.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

Bold prediction: Portal finishes no closer to Fallout 3 then L4D did.
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I think people are trying to find an excuse to why Freeman did so well between round 1 and 2.
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Bold prediction: Portal finishes no closer to Fallout 3 then L4D did.

Portal > L4D though.
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He did the exact same thing in 2007 as well, so it's hard to find something to blame it on.
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From: charmander6000 | #279
Bold prediction: Portal finishes no closer to Fallout 3 then L4D did.

Portal > L4D though.

I'm really not sure if it is. L4D was stuck in a match with a bigger online FPS for Xbox, and 2 other Xbox games. Portal was in a match it was much more independent. L4D could have done what Portal did in that match, I think.
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From: LeonhartFour | #280
He did the exact same thing in 2007 as well, so it's hard to find something to blame it on.

2007 is easy to explain. Orange Box came out inbetween matches.
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He did the exact same thing in 2007 as well, so it's hard to find something to blame it on.

We all know that Guybrush "G" and PC LFF Freeman.
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I'm really not sure if it is. L4D was stuck in a match with a bigger online FPS for Xbox, and 2 other Xbox games. Portal was in a match it was much more independent. L4D could have done what Portal did in that match, I think.

Still going by stats Portal will probably be ahead.
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by stats I mean x-stats for this eight-pack
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But we know how much xstats mean in 4ways. It might finish higher but thats only because Portal wasp ut in a more favorable position.
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Portal is not in a more favorable position. It's in a tougher fourpack than L4D had.
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It had no hard SFF like L4D had. L4D is an online shooter with THE most played online shooter in its same amtch. Obviously it was gonna be hurt more then Portal would in its match. Thats all I'm saying, that you can't judge that Portal is obviously stronger when comparing it to a SFF'd L4D.
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L4D was SFFed now

who knew!
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg

If L4D was hurt, I couldn't tell.
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From: transience | #289
L4D was SFFed now

who knew!

Uh, why wouldn't it be? I thought it was common knowledge it was SFF'd.
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Ooooor, L4D was actually weaker than Portal, which seems obvious, since the latter has joke votes, is more recognizable, and better liked. Sure, it suffered SFF, but it's SFFed value is not too far away from its real one.

uh
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg

So why does a SFFd L4D defeat Portal?
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Uh, why would it be? You need more than that to be SFF'd.
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From: charmander6000 | #294
So why does a SFFd L4D defeat Portal?

A SFF'd L4D doesn't. A full strength L4D does.

And for you people thinking it wasn't SFF'd, then why do you even bring up genre SFF at all? This is as much of genre SFF as there can be.
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I don't know of many people who bring up genre SFF other than you.
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I've seen many cases of people bringing up genre SFF. Like for example, some people saying Earthbound didn't stand a chance due to another massive RPG in the poll.
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How in the hell is GTA doing 5% worse on Brawl after throwing the third strongest Wii game in the poll. This match has very little of that "sense making" thing.
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From: PartOfYourWorld | #299
How in the hell is GTA doing 5% worse on Brawl after throwing the third strongest Wii game in the poll. This match has very little of that "sense making" thing.

CoD4 hurting it due to the casual vote.
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