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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 725

transience | Posted 5/23/2009 9:35:51 PM | message detail
nah there was lots of discussion about MGS4 being easily the weakest MGS game.
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xyzzy
Silverflash-x | Posted 5/23/2009 9:36:25 PM | message detail
I'm really close to the leaderboard right now. Only 15 people away. And if this match continues the way it is now, which I think it will, I'll get another 8 points. :D

It would be my first time on the leaderboard. I'd be stoked.
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A. None. Snakes don't have armpits.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:36:29 PM | message detail
But Day Vote =/= ASV

Most people won't say Halo's got a great day vote. They'll say it's got a great ASV. Same thing for KH and Smash Bros.
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ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 9:36:57 PM | message detail
MGS4 >> MGS3 then

Sounds right. MGS2 and MGS3 have performed like you would expect of the bottom of the Metal Gear series. MGS1 and MGS4 have done a good bit better than both so far.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:37:12 PM | message detail
nah there was lots of discussion about MGS4 being easily the weakest MGS game.

Those were the same people who thought being a PS3 exclusive meant something.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/23/2009 9:37:23 PM | message detail
MGS4's pre-contest range has got to be the biggest we've ever seen for anything. Some had it pegged as easily the weakest of the four MGS games. Others had it winning the contest.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:37:29 PM | message detail
nah there was lots of discussion about MGS4 being easily the weakest MGS game.

After that GOTY performance, I'm not sure why such a discussion ever happened. Sure, I guess people could call it a fluke, but Brawl was only going to be so weak.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:37:34 PM | message detail
The real question is who wins between MGS4 and MGS1?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:38:09 PM | message detail
That is the question indeed.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:38:27 PM | message detail
The real question is who wins between MGS4 and MGS1?

I'd go MGS.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 9:38:40 PM | message detail
That's probably close, at least indirectly. MGS1 hasn't done well enough for me to say it'd be doing much better here.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:38:43 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #456
MGS4's pre-contest range has got to be the biggest we've ever seen for anything. Some had it pegged as easily the weakest of the four MGS games. Others had it winning the contest.


I feel sorry for Menji. His bracket is good except for that one oversight, and he coulda won it
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:40:01 PM | message detail
MGS1, and I think it's become underrated since the contest started. As for the idea of MGS4 being the weakest MGS game, playership is a very overrated argument.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:40:39 PM | message detail
Yeah, Portal's done.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:40:51 PM | message detail
Time for Portal to fall back to the 36% level.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:41:53 PM | message detail
So does Portal survive Halos day vote?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/23/2009 9:42:36 PM | message detail
So Bioshock may end up outperforming Halo 3 here? That would have been a good upset pick if they were in a match together
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:42:40 PM | message detail
Also, Brawl is going to demolish MGS4 next round.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:43:05 PM | message detail
Yes, easily, Halo's going to fall all the way until morning.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:43:51 PM | message detail
Portal's already got a 350 vote lead on Halo 3. It should build up enough of a lead to be fine.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/23/2009 9:43:51 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | Posted: 5/24/2009 12:23:58 AM | #402
What do you think of Magus vs. Frog, then? Magus should be a good deal stronger, it's just that he excels at failure making him look worse than he really is while Frog pulls off miracle victories that make him look better than he is.


I'd pick Frog in that match, but with no confidence.
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transience | Posted 5/23/2009 9:44:05 PM | message detail
Brawl and MGS4 should be good. it won't be a blowout at least.
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xyzzy
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:44:32 PM | message detail
Ulti-style blowout, book it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:44:52 PM | message detail
Also, Brawl is going to demolish MGS4 next round.

It won't be as bad as that SSBM/MGS2 destruction!!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:45:11 PM | message detail
Frog vs. Magus would be one of the best matches we could ever have.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:45:33 PM | message detail
And just when you thought Portal was done.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/23/2009 9:45:37 PM | message detail
Brawl is going to stand out bigtime, but Fallout 3 didn't hurt MGS4 any more during the GotY voting. I think MGS4 has a good chance at staying competitive (or at least respectable) next round, and I'm hoping that that'll just lead to this whole division being jump. Here's to hoping!
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:46:46 PM | message detail
Magus and Frog have identical trends for the first 22 hours, getting Magus a painstakingly built 1000 vote lead, which Frog proceeds to demolish in the last 2 hours?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/23/2009 9:48:07 PM | message detail
Melee absolutely destroyed MGS2. I stand by this.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 9:48:23 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm thinking Brawl will whomp on MGS4 next round. Not only is it going to stand out, but it's probably stronger than those GOTY polls indicated.

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/23/2009 9:48:40 PM | message detail
Magus and Frog have identical trends for the first 22 hours, getting Magus a painstakingly built 1000 vote lead, which Frog proceeds to demolish in the last 2 hours?

Almost identical. I'll bet that Frog gets the board vote over Magus here.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/23/2009 9:48:57 PM | message detail
jump = junk

That... was a pretty unreadable post. Sorry.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:49:04 PM | message detail
Melee absolutely destroyed MGS2. I stand by this.

If the winner won by more than 1000 votes then the match was a blowout.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:49:37 PM | message detail
Brawl easily beats MGS4 next round. Plus, I'd bet CoD4/Fallout 3 have more overlap with MGS4 both being on PS3 then SSBB, so that should only help SSBB there
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:49:52 PM | message detail
Brawl would stand out like crazy in the final GOTY poll last year, too. Standing out won't make a difference, I don't think.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3363

Heck, Brawl is the ONLY Nintendo game here, and it STILL lost to MGS4.
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transience | Posted 5/23/2009 9:50:13 PM | message detail
didn't Brawl stand out bigtime in the GOTY polls? remember people arguing that removing Crisis Core, Gears of War, Fallout 3, etc etc would help MGS4? and Brawl just had bigger wins anyway?
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xyzzy
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transience | Posted 5/23/2009 9:50:27 PM | message detail
damn you leonhart
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 9:51:18 PM | message detail
Again, that's just one part of it. It can never hurt to be a big standout. And Brawl's looked much better in this contest than it ever did at any point during the GOTY polls. Even with as recent as those are, I wouldn't expect them to go the same way when it comes contest time.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:51:22 PM | message detail
For some reason I have the feeling that games stand out more when there are pictures.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:51:31 PM | message detail
Dedicated fanbase zone MGS4 always gets at least 24% of the vote confirmed
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:51:47 PM | message detail
Brawl will probably take the division title, though FO3/CoD4 will probably be a good match to watch.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS4 > Fallout 3 Points: 163/248
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/23/2009 9:52:14 PM | message detail
You can put together some pretty interesting arguments with that match. Brawl does stand out, BUT

-Fallout 3 seemed to hurt both games about equally in the GotY voting.
-CoD4, like Halo, is a very casual-friendly, multiplayer-centric game with a good day vote. In that sense, it's much more similar to Brawl than it is to MGS4
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:52:19 PM | message detail
I don't think being a standout really matters much. That factor has been way overplayed. I can't think of an instance off the top of my head when it mattered. Somebody help me out here?

And we say Brawl looks better now because we thought getting 52% on MGS4 was weak. It's not.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/23/2009 9:52:33 PM | message detail
Brawl would crush MGS4.


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transience | Posted 5/23/2009 9:52:33 PM | message detail
Brawl smashed the Wii poll (just like MGS4 smashed the PS3 poll). its only other polls were against MGS4 when -- hey -- it had trouble.
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yzzyx
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/23/2009 9:53:27 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #493
I don't think being a standout really matters much. That factor has been way overplayed. I can't think of an instance off the top of my head when it mattered. Somebody help me out here?


Tales of Symphonia?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/23/2009 9:53:45 PM | message detail
MGS4 fanboiz in the house
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:53:50 PM | message detail
No.
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ZFS | Posted 5/23/2009 9:53:54 PM | message detail
Brawl wasn't only disappointing in that 1v1 against MGS4. Every time it was in one of those polls it was disappointing. It's done much better now, and I'd be shocked if MGS4 could even keep it competitive next round.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/23/2009 9:53:56 PM | message detail
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