GameFAQs Contests

HAMMER OF JUSTICE!


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

LEBRON JAMES?!
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Fortes in Unitate.
I ain't conceited only positive and way better

That guy is a ****ing freak of nature.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Tag I suppose. Needs moar Brawl in opening post.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko

Cool, brawl>cod4
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AC:WW Code: Name:Mr.378 Town:Darkcity FC: 4210-5769-8462
GENO WHIRL!

LeBron Believe > Master Chief Believe
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Melee>Brawl

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Yesterday's stats:

Time | RE4 | KHII | LOZ: TP | Half-Life 2 | Demographic
EBV | 30.19% | 22.55% | 27.60% | 19.66% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 29.15% | 24.42% | 28.16% | 18.27% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 27.64% | 25.77% | 27.06% | 19.54% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 26.97% | 25.35% | 28.92% | 18.76% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 27.68% | 24.92% | 28.91% | 18.48% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 25.72% | 27.88% | 29.12% | 17.28% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 25.77% | 29.56% | 27.51% | 17.16% | (22:00-24:00)

TP with a good Power Hour, slight drop off from the night vote, and then a gradual rise until the second night vote. Great board vote and Power Hour for RE4, but a notable night vote drop off, getting even worse in the morning. Not so great in the ASV either. KHII with a bad board vote, but for some reason, it gets the night vote here. And look, a 3% jump with the ASV and nearly 30% with the second night vote. Whoo, KH! Half-Life 2 had a good board vote and night vote, not so good ASV though.

Yesterday's stats:

Twilight Princess – 50.00%
Resident Evil 4 – 48.68%
Kingdom Hearts II – 47.99%
Half-Life 2 – 39.06%

Lower Half Stats

Twilight Princess – 50.00%
Resident Evil 4 – 48.68%
Kingdom Hearts II (Round 1) – 48.28%
Kingdom Hearts II (Round 2) – 47.99%
Half-Life 2 (Round 1) – 39.80%
Half-Life 2 (Round 2) – 39.06%
Final Fantasy XII – 37.68%
Shadow of the Colossus – 34.01%
Gears of War – 28.12%
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – 22.57%
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I think Brawl fixed many issues from Melee, and overall its more fun to play (not that Melee isn't fun to play in comparison anymore). The only things in Melee's favor for me are nostalgia and the fact that SSBM showcased the GCN's technical capabilities well whereas SSBB doesn't do so for the Wii.

Currently I have 155 points in my bracket but 195 for predictions. If today's trends keep up I have 159 points in my bracket and 203 for predictions.

Two new honorable mentions rose up today as far as vote totals go. Zelda: Twilight Princess now holds the lowest vote total out of every 1st place entrant, and Kingdom Hearts II holds the highest total out of every game eliminated this round. Another note to make is that Half-Life 2 managed a higher vote total than Super Metroid, making it look like it could have advanced to round 3 if put in the top half of division 3, or even in Link's Awakening's shoes.

Resident Evil 4 kept about 72.45% of its votes from last round.
Kingdom Hearts II kept about 71.66% of its votes from last round.
Zelda: Twilight Princess kept about 68.36% of its votes from last round.
Half-Life 2 kept about 66.29% of its votes from last round.

Everybody was in about the same general range, as far as things go. Half-Life 2 seems like it lost out some mature votes to Resident Evil 4, and at the same time something happened to Twilight Princess. Was the game just the casual choice for this round (and last round as well)? I dunno.

So uhhhh CoD4 or Half Life 2? Because they might end up getting beat down about the same.
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Should I start running now?

Gears of War – 28.12%
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – 22.57%

=\
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

I wouldn't take HL2 to beat Galaxy, so gimme CoD4.

Man, that would mean FFXII could beat Galaxy if HL2 could beat CoD4.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Very well then, Brawl. Thou hast faced thy first test and overcome. Now face that from which thou was made, if thou darest. And if thou shouldst triumph again....bow down to the King of SFF, or else stand in defiance once more, and face utter destruction, ever seeking to overthrow it!

Next round will be interesting; we'll get a better gauge on Brawl's strength than Call of Duty 4, which only looked impressive because it beat Mario Galaxy. It's possible that is quite weak, and Galaxy even weaker.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Call of Duty 4 is legit. Theres only so weak a Mario galaxy with a lower tier Pokemon game in the poll can be
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Lead change.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Man, that would mean FFXII could beat Galaxy if HL2 could beat CoD4.

contest redeemed

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a metal slime appears

Brawl is just beating on Galaxy and taking more and more of it's lunch money.
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Should I start running now?

I like how all of our GOTYs have been disappointing except for two of them.

Gah Galaxy sucks.
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166/240 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Galaxy > CoD4 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4

And people thought Galaxy stood a chance.

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[ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / SMB3 / LoZ: OoT / MGS
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=161

Aww yeah, STP bashing Galaxy
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166/240 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Galaxy > CoD4 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4

I think GTA4 is being hurt by CoD4. Its getting 28% currently on SSBB when it got 35% last round.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

GTA IV/CoD4 LFF as bad as Galaxy/Brawl LFF? Unlikely. GTA IV doing well last round was a "Nothing else to vote for if I don't want to vote for Brawl" performance.

Yeah, I believe overperformances due to a lack of competition exist. We've seen Nightmare do it twice.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Oh I don't think the LFF is anywhere near as bad, just I think CoD4 might be hurting it a bit.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

heh Gta just cut CoD4
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

Poor Galaxy, having all its votes taken like that. And it's my favorite of the bunch.

Oh well, match is going as planned.
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Current Score: 180
Today's pick: SSB Brawl > Call of Duty 4

man even the night vote can't stop Brawl. Brawl > Melee looks better with every update.
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter

I can buy overperformances due to lack of competition in some cases- meaning some games are disproportionately (meaning not linearly) affected by changes in competition strength. It's more or less the flip side of Last Place Factor.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

First Place Factor
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yzzyx

...whoa
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I've been waiting for this moment all my life - it's my destiny.
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg

Smash with a bad Power Hour and good night vote.

What
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

damn you Galaxy

KH2 vs. Brawl who wins the night vote
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg

i think we're finally in the night vote now
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png

14 people fell off the Top 50 today. MicFiend13, xcamel24, PieMan244, Mistah_T_1337, pinoy_boi, oscarr311, King_Gir, Poireau, Bleak5, theawesomestevr, Agumen, revo_gamer275, crown_unit and stncldrwg did not have LoZ:TP > RE4 as yesterday's winners.

10 people scored half points and survived. Mirrorzzz, JayLabPrime, Tirofog, mentalmike_2000, Petter_S, Gaddswell, Megamanz777, Some_Character, Tendo128 and SingToMe14 also did not have LoZ:TP > RE4 as yesterday's winners.

1 person scored quarter points and lived. swrdof1000trths had something vaguely similar to LoZ:TP > RE4 as yesterday's winners.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...

LEBRON JAMES?!

Let's not forget the MJ of Turkey in all this!

He was actually playing terrific defense on Lebron on that shot too.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

So...

Melee vs. Brawl, who ya got?
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

Super Smash Bros. Melee

If Brawl goes 60/40 against Twilight Princess, I might sing a different tune, but right now I still give Melee the edge.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

From: KleenexTissue50 | #036
So...

Melee vs. Brawl, who ya got?

gut says brawl now, but that just sounds absolutely crazy to my brain

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I seem to have prematurely shot my wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, and now I have a bit of a mess on my hands

And while we're at it...

Wind Waker vs. Galaxy

Though I think I know which way this one goes.
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

Zeruda
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

From: KleenexTissue50 | #039
And while we're at it...

Wind Waker vs. Galaxy

Though I think I know which way this one goes.

wait is this a battle of which game we're less disgusted with

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I seem to have prematurely shot my wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, and now I have a bit of a mess on my hands

Seriously, this might be the craziest SFF disaster of the contest. I'm not sure if World/MM3 tops this one.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

At least Wind Waker had the decency to avoid getting doubled by Melee. Galaxy can't even break 30% on Brawl right now. Give me Wind Waker, and it's not even close.

Hey, Metroid Prime vs. Mario Galaxy: Who you got?

Which means you gotta ask yourself this question. Vice City vs. Galaxy: Who you got?

MGS2 vs. Galaxy: Who you got?

Man, most of the games that will be ranked above Galaxy by the end of this, we would have never picked them to beat it.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I guess Galaxy really did have like a... two month period to shine before the door was completely closed on its face. Such a shame, too. It deserves so much better.
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Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

And I mentioned this before in the other topic, but now we're starting to see why SSB did as well on SMB in the Series Contest as it did.

Run a rematch right now: How does it go?
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Mario probably goes for the mid-60s in a noticeably better performance.

Galaxy looked really weak last round as well. This isn't indicative of much; Smash hype is still gone.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Oh, and I just looked at the final results of yesterday's match. Looks like KH2 finally decided to tear it up, although a little too late. Still, 1200 vote swing is still pretty impressive.
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg

Wow, this is devastating.

BT, what's your sig for me?
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

I would take Gunstar Heroes over Super Mario Galaxy at this point


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I will bury you.

From: hochiminhX | #049
I would take Gunstar Heroes over Super Mario Galaxy at this point

Well it is the better game after all!
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png