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Contest Stats and Discussion -Part 724

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 1:08:54 PM | message detail
KH has cut about 100 votes in the last 40 minutes. That means it'd cut about 300 votes every 2 hours, if it can keep that up. That'd still only be 1200 votes cut by the end of the match, and it won't do that the rest of the match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 1:10:38 PM | message detail
Or KHII can just cut 40 votes in 5 minutes. That works, too.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 1:11:40 PM | message detail
KH2 seems done screwing around. Probably too late, but...
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transients | Posted 5/22/2009 1:12:33 PM | message detail
KH2 just isn't going fast enough. there's eight hours left, but really it's more like six. it's gonna need at least 300 votes per hour to win; in the last hour it's cut 130. we'll see if it picks up the pace but RE4 looks pretty safe.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 1:13:40 PM | message detail
KHII didn't really start picking up until about 40 minutes ago.
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transients | Posted 5/22/2009 1:16:21 PM | message detail
I misread it anyway - it's more like 150 in the last hour.

if you want to go by the last 30 minutes, it's cut 80 and needs ~150 every half hour to win. I don't have much faith in KH cutting after 10.

and who can forget Axel!
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 1:18:03 PM | message detail
Somehow I don't think RE4 would get the "Rallies" Frog got.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/22/2009 1:19:06 PM | message detail
SMG got 47+% on CoD4 and Halo 3 in the 2007-GotY, so it's not exactly unlikely that SMG >= CoD4; I'd like SMG with 52-53% head-to-head there. Also, I was just trying to say SSBB still has more vocal haters than SMG and the immediate receptions to each game were vastly different. It's also worth noting every Mario-game in R2 has impressed in matches both with and without SFF (except SMW2:YI and MK64, which looked to be hurt by stronger Mario-games). I think there's potential to see SFF work against SSBB there.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 1:21:02 PM | message detail
We used SMG's reception last round and look at what happen to it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
HaRRicH | Posted 5/22/2009 1:33:11 PM | message detail
It doesn't mean its reception can't matter more in a battle between two Wii-exclusives though; it's an under-hyped major Nintendo game from a classic series with killer reception and great sales against an over-hyped new major Nintendo game from a relatively new series with generally-good-yet-mixed reception and barely better sales. Given how close they are probably going to be, that's not such a terrible situation.

Besides, though I'm sure G/S > D/P, SMG still beat D/P worse than MGS beat G/S. Depending on how those two Pokemon games compare, SMG could fight with MGS. We know SSBB >= MGS4, so...bam, close match again.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
ChronicBoom | Posted 5/22/2009 1:34:19 PM | message detail
I would **** a brick and smash an old ladies face into it if Galaxy beat Brawl tomorrow.

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He who shall not be named.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 1:35:12 PM | message detail
Best case scenario: Both Brawl and Galaxy advance, letting eachother LFF like crazy to allow round 3 to be MGS4 > Fallout 3
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 1:51:18 PM | message detail
GS would easily defeat DP. Hardcore Pokemon fans like it, but when it comes to casuals RSE/DPP generations are usually left behind.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
SonicRaptor | Posted 5/22/2009 1:53:12 PM | message detail
So you'd have CoD4 at Brawl/MGS4 level then?

I would certainly take it over Fallout 3.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
transients | Posted 5/22/2009 1:54:16 PM | message detail
worst comeback ever.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 1:59:51 PM | message detail

From: SonicRaptor | #114
So you'd have CoD4 at Brawl/MGS4 level then?

I would certainly take it over Fallout 3.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3364

So I see you'd take it to give MGS4/SSBB a run for their money in a 1v1. Thats cool.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 2:02:19 PM | message detail
14:00 | 53.70%
15:00 | 52.36%
16:00 | 48.67%
17:00 | 48.17%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/22/2009 2:43:07 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/2004-2006.png

This was challenging to make. More "let's make a fun pic" than "let's make a practical pic."
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/22/2009 3:03:09 PM | message detail
Hmm. Maybe we can throw out Kingdom Hearts having the best ASV after all. I'd wager Master Chief or something Sonic/Zelda for that one.
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transients | Posted 5/22/2009 3:03:56 PM | message detail
the answer is Smash. we've already seen Halo dethroned.
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xyzzy
transients | Posted 5/22/2009 3:04:13 PM | message detail
though really, I think OOT would dominate Smash in the day.
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xyzzy
Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/22/2009 3:06:28 PM | message detail
Why would OoT beat Smash in the day? Smash annihilated Mario in that period.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/22/2009 3:09:22 PM | message detail
Smash for games, Sora for characters.
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transients | Posted 5/22/2009 3:09:24 PM | message detail
'cause OOT is just a monster.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/22/2009 3:11:33 PM | message detail
But OoT is more monstrous than SSBM at all times of the day, not just the ASV. It's not unreasonable to think that if Smash is getting killed, say, 80-20 overnight that it could manage slightly better during the ASV.
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turnturnturn your brain in
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 3:12:22 PM | message detail
Or maybe RE4's ASV isn't as bad as some thought.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 3:42:17 PM | message detail
it's an under-hyped major Nintendo game from a classic series with killer reception and great sales against an over-hyped new major Nintendo game from a relatively new series with generally-good-yet-mixed reception and barely better sales.

I think you're either putting too much stock in Board 8, in the GOTY polls, or in both. Galaxy fell off the map quickly and became a forgotten Mario title. The only "killer" reception Galaxy got was in the review department, which we know is worthless for gauging overall strength.

And there's a reason SSB stood up so well to SMB. You can blame it on Brawl hype if you want, but I doubt SMB does TOO much better even now.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/22/2009 4:03:13 PM | message detail
It's hard for me to give Galaxy any slack going into tonight. That first round performance was just bad.
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ZFS | Posted 5/22/2009 4:03:24 PM | message detail
Galaxy's great reception wasn't limited to just professional reviews. It got, and still gets, tons of love from normal people, too. The problem is that it hasn't had enough time to sink in and become 'nostalgic' like every other Mario game in the contest, on top of the backlash that new Nintendo gets. All three of the big Wii games haven't met expectations for that reasons.

And I do think SMB would do a good bit better today against Smash Bros. than it did back during the peak of Brawl hype. Not that it really matters now, but Brawl hype played more than a small role in it holding on so well.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 4:07:57 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-47.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-48.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-49.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-50.jpg
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/22/2009 4:08:31 PM | message detail
Here's to hoping they both look bad. Assuming Smash advances today, it should still easily lock up first place next round (it's almost crazy how advantaged its position is). Plus, I've got RE4 > Zelda > Smash in two rounds, so I need that damn thing to bomb.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 5/22/2009 4:09:07 PM | message detail
What an awful SMB3/SMW/FFIV match pic.

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a metal slime appears
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/22/2009 4:11:16 PM | message detail
Wow, those Round 3 pics are a disaster.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/22/2009 4:14:51 PM | message detail
Probably couldn't have picked a better Brawl pic. Snake's unveiling was more popular than the game itself

Don't really care for the other pics though
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 4:15:05 PM | message detail
Hey, gimmicky artsy pics return, to no one's surprise!

Brawl's got this match wrapped up. Snake to surprise Mario with SHOWTIME confirmed
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Janus5000 | Posted 5/22/2009 4:16:36 PM | message detail
Mario overdose in the first pic CoD4 > GTAIV confirmed

I like how one of those is these Arabic 4 and the other is the Roman IV. <_<
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transients | Posted 5/22/2009 4:16:52 PM | message detail
MM2 pic is where it's at
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xyzzy
Master Moltar | Posted 5/22/2009 4:21:10 PM | message detail
Brawl and Portal got some nice advantages

the first R3 pic isn't bad but that second one oh geez (especially for FFIV, but I need it to lose there so it's not all that bad!)
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 46 - Bracket: TP > RE4 - Vote: RE4 (155/232)
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2009 4:26:53 PM | message detail
Damn, that Tetris pic has an O-Block in it. It would have been better with an L-Block.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/22/2009 4:27:33 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-49.jpg

Great pic. I like how the background incorporates different elements of all 4 games. Well, except Mega Man 2, but it is not like MM2 has a shot at not ending up last anyway.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 4:30:47 PM | message detail
MM2's element of the pic is the primary focus, so I think it'll be fine.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/22/2009 4:31:58 PM | message detail
And yes, that Brawl pic pretty much sealed Galaxy's fate. Snake's unveiling is probably the second biggest gaming moment of this decade.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transients | Posted 5/22/2009 4:32:37 PM | message detail
I thought it was a bad Smash pic. usually Smash gets these overwhelming pictures of the entire cast; I didn't even notice Snake until I looked at it closer. I just saw two Marios.

advantage COD4.
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xyzzy
transients | Posted 5/22/2009 4:33:22 PM | message detail
looking at it again, I'm not even sure how I missed Snake. I guess Mario is that recognizable to me.
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xyzzy
MetricTrout | Posted 5/22/2009 4:34:20 PM | message detail
Oh wait, it took me like 5 minutes to realize that the blue bar was from the stage selection from Mega Man 2.

Doh.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 4:37:56 PM | message detail
looking at it again, I'm not even sure how I missed Snake

That's what stealth is all about!

!

Snake's unveiling is probably the second biggest gaming moment of this decade.

...What was the first?
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/22/2009 4:40:31 PM | message detail
...What was the first?

Tingle's Rosy Rupee Land
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Today's prediction: Twilight 30.07% - Riku+Sora yaoi 26.24% - Shoot them in the head! 25.96% - HL2 17.73%
Status: Good
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/22/2009 4:42:43 PM | message detail
Twilight Princess unveiling easily takes first.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 4:42:55 PM | message detail
Strangely enough, it looks like KHII's gonna cut off around the same amount of votes as last time, probably a little more.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 4:43:04 PM | message detail
I... don't even remember Twilight Princess unveiling.
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