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Contest Stats and Discussion -Part 724

Meeks54 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:03:31 AM | message detail
The Legend of Zelda: Night Vote Beast!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
neonreaper | Posted 5/22/2009 7:42:48 AM | message detail
bump to cause trouble
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Donny: Are they gonna hurt us, Walter?
Walter: No, Donny. These men are cowards.
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 7:51:00 AM | message detail
tag
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
Meeks54 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:09:17 AM | message detail
You know, usually I would be mad, but since Ulti has nothing left on this board anymore except being the "Contest topic dude" I can see why he would try to use any technicality in the world so he gets his topic.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 8:12:35 AM | message detail
What I'd like to know is why you made the topic while there was 200 left to be filled in the old one.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/22/2009 8:20:20 AM | message detail

From: __Smurf__ | Posted: 5/22/2009 11:12:35 AM | #005
What I'd like to know is why you made the topic while there was 200 left to be filled in the old one.


To be annoying. It's MWC, he's not good at much else.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
Meeks54 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:49:37 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #006
To be annoying. It's MWC, he's not good at much else.




You mean like you do?


Don't you just sit at your computer all day waiting for the new stats topics to hit 300 so you can get your topic?

And did you not absolutely rail on people 2 weeks ago because god forbid they make one before the 300th post, those people making it at 280 were spawn of Satan, but you making it at 304 or so makes you the hero of B8. Right Ulti?

Want to take a guess when I made this topic? Post 301. So being reduced to contest topic dude was not enough for you, now you had to go the hypocrite route as well.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/22/2009 8:57:37 AM | message detail
bawww
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/22/2009 8:59:04 AM | message detail
MWC - worst poster or worstest poster stay tuned for updates
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
Meeks54 | Posted 5/22/2009 9:01:37 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #008
bawww




Good well thought out post by our hero. I wish I could convey a thought like you can.

Since it is clearly the only thing you have left here, I will close this if you want me too.

I await your brilliant response.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/22/2009 9:03:33 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Meeks54 | Posted 5/22/2009 9:04:02 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Meeks54 | Posted 5/22/2009 9:05:43 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #011
Hey, when someone fakes being a transsexual for attention before accusing someone else of internet addiction, it makes my day. Let him (emphasis on him) post all he wants. Every group needs "that guy" in it. You know, the guy whose every word creates an awkward silence before someone else changes the subject, and people are generally too nice to make a big stink about it? MYC or MWC or whatever his name is this week can be that guy for the stats topic =p





What? When did I ever do that?
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 11:21:15 AM | message detail
KHII needs 100 votes every 15 minutes. gogogogo
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 11:30:33 AM | message detail
Not really. It needs about 250 votes an hour or so.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 11:31:09 AM | message detail
I still say you're all giving this KH day vote way too much credit. >_>
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 11:32:10 AM | message detail
We'll see in about 8 hours.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 11:32:28 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #015
Not really. It needs about 250 votes an hour or so.


Yeah but it won't be making gains into the night, if it's not leading in 5 hours it's not ever going to. It needs to make quick, hard gains to have any hope.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
TheOceIot | Posted 5/22/2009 11:32:45 AM | message detail
You missed a space after the dash.
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http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p245/ThEVeGSaVaGe/fliegetn0.gif
Currently Playing: Chrono Trigger DS, Fallout 3, NHL 09
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 11:33:19 AM | message detail
All KHs asv needs to do is beat a game that has worse ASV then an obscure PS2 game that you play a dog

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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 11:33:42 AM | message detail
should be easy then, right?
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 11:33:45 AM | message detail
That's not true. KH's ASV lasts long past 7:30 P.M.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 11:34:23 AM | message detail
Actually I look forward to your explanation as to "why" Kingdom Hearts II failed to get within 1000 votes of Resi 4 tomorrow. =D
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 11:34:32 AM | message detail
Axel was making gains on Frog till 10:30
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 11:35:32 AM | message detail
RE4 might have 2000 before KH does anything here
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
consolefreak | Posted 5/22/2009 11:37:13 AM | message detail
Actually I look forward to your explanation as to "why" Kingdom Hearts II failed to get within 1000 votes of Resi 4 tomorrow. =D

I'm not sure what it is exactly that inspires you to be such an ass about it. Not a single person in this topic considers KH2 to be the favourite at this point. If KH2 fails to get within a 1000 votes of RE4, it will because Sora's (/Axel's) ASV >>>>>> KH's. It's that simple, really.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 11:37:51 AM | message detail

From: consolefreak | #026
Not a single person in this topic considers KH2 to be the favourite at this point.


uhh albion?
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 11:38:32 AM | message detail

From: __Smurf__ | #027
uhh albion?


I think KH2 is a very slight favorite. RE4 still has a chance.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
transience | Posted 5/22/2009 11:39:02 AM | message detail
2000 votes? KH will need the comeback of its life to win this. it's 99% done.

this match is nearly the same as the last one - time to stop with the "RE4 is Nintendo" theory.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 5/22/2009 11:39:28 AM | message detail
also Albion is just screwing around and doesn't actually believe what he posts

that's why most people don't even read it
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
consolefreak | Posted 5/22/2009 11:41:09 AM | message detail
Ok I thought he was just arguing for KH still having a chance rather than being the favourite. I'd say KH has about a 20-25% chance at this point.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino
charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 11:42:03 AM | message detail
More like 10%, but that's because I want to see its ASV.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/22/2009 11:42:18 AM | message detail
RE4 coming back on lol 8.8? Best ASV ever
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 11:45:14 AM | message detail
http://www.darkknightandjoekerr.com/AndHereWeGo.gif
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 11:45:35 AM | message detail
30 vote cut for KHII. Here we go!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 11:54:34 AM | message detail
Watch RE4 take first and KHII does nothing. >_>

Seriously now, RE4 with 725 votes like last time.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 11:55:36 AM | message detail
KH needs to get it into gear soon ... !
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 11:56:24 AM | message detail
Whoops, false alarm!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 11:58:59 AM | message detail
Axel didn't start his comeback attempt till 3 PM.

So if KH wants to do anything here, this next update is the time!
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
KingButz | Posted 5/22/2009 11:59:52 AM | message detail
How could you even think KHII has a chance to place? It's down nearly 2000 against a game that has a decent day vote! There is absolutely no way that RE4 doesn't make it out of this round.
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My Japanese alter-ego.
Butz: FFV, not Larry.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 12:00:27 PM | message detail
All right, KHII gets a full 2000 lead to chop away!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 12:00:29 PM | message detail

From: KingButz | #040
How could you even think KHII has a chance to place? It's down nearly 2000 against a game that has a decent day vote! There is absolutely no way that RE4 doesn't make it out of this round.


A decent day vote doesn't lose the ASV to Okami. Its got a garbage asv.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 12:00:35 PM | message detail
n_n
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 12:00:52 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/22/2009 12:01:21 PM | message detail
Hopefully that puts an end to that for a while.

Albion, I like you a lot more than most of the others around here (I get the feeling), but keeping that argument going for like 150 posts was extremely pointless.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 12:01:29 PM | message detail
and thats it, I think

If RE4 is getting 50 vote gains now, its done

Good show RE4
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 12:01:38 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #042
A decent day vote doesn't lose the ASV to Okami. Its got a garbage asv.


Why don't you look at the actual game and not judge its trends from ada freakin wong.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 12:01:48 PM | message detail
1:00 | 54.42%
2:00 | 51.90%
3:00 | 50.42%
4:00 | 54.42%
5:00 | 50.59%
6:00 | 52.20%
7:00 | 50.14%
8:00 | 52.16%
9:00 | 51.64%
10:00 | 51.14%
11:00 | 53.18%
12:00 | 53.29%
13:00 | 52.03%
14:00 | 53.70%
15:00 | 52.36%

KHII needs about 54% of the remaining votes against RE4 to win.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 12:01:52 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #045
Hopefully that puts an end to that for a while.

Albion, I like you a lot more than most of the others around here (I get the feeling), but keeping that argument going for like 150 posts was extremely pointless.


If people argue with me, I'm not just gonna back down! If others back down, I would too.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/gelupeh/axel_post_top2.png
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/22/2009 12:01:53 PM | message detail
I hate to burst your bubble and all, but Ammy's day vote has proven to be decent.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif