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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 723

WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/22/2009 7:59:32 AM | message detail
Ada Wong would probably beat Claire pretty badly during the ASV.

Ada. Goddamn. Wong.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 7:59:59 AM | message detail
Actually I want something concrete to gloat about.

Albion, Outline your prediction for how the rest of the match will go. With will be the gap before the ASV, after the ASV and who will be the eventual winner.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:00:53 AM | message detail
I predict RE4 will be up by 1800 going into the ASV, KH swings something like 2000 and barely wins it in the second night vote.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 8:02:11 AM | message detail
<_<; well ok then.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2009 8:02:59 AM | message detail
No one is taking note of RE4's comeback on TP yet. The comeback started 30 minutes ago with a 31 vote cut on TP's highest lead on RE4.

RE4 should hopefully have the lead within the next 30 minutes.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:03:51 AM | message detail

From: WarThaHedgehog | #351
Ada Wong would probably beat Claire pretty badly during the ASV.

Ada. Goddamn. Wong.


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/File:Graph2905.png

Ada lost the ASV to Ammy.

EFFING AMMY.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 8:04:06 AM | message detail
I will now proceed to screenshot that comment which will later be affixed to the end result which I will forever repost every time you make another contest prediction as an everlasting reminder that you don't understand in the slightest how these contests work. ^_^


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(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:04:19 AM | message detail
1:00 | 54.42%
2:00 | 51.90%
3:00 | 50.42%
4:00 | 54.42%
5:00 | 50.59%
6:00 | 52.20%
7:00 | 50.14%
8:00 | 52.16%
9:00 | 51.64%
10:00 | 51.14%
11:00 | 53.18%

From here on end KHII needs about 52% of the votes to win.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/22/2009 8:06:23 AM | message detail
So? I'm just saying that pre-RE4 RE characters are that much worse during the ASV than RE4 characters.

Plus, see: Ada. Goddamn. Wong. She might be the weakest contest entity to ever win TWO matches.*

*Don't call me out on this, I'm too lazy to actually check.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:06:28 AM | message detail
No one is taking note of RE4's comeback on TP yet. The comeback started 30 minutes ago with a 31 vote cut on TP's highest lead on RE4.

Probably because RE4 already had a lead on TP and it will probably lose any kind of lead against TP with the ASV.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:07:43 AM | message detail

From: WarThaHedgehog | #359
So? I'm just saying that pre-RE4 RE characters are that much worse during the ASV than RE4 characters.

Plus, see: Ada. Goddamn. Wong. She might be the weakest contest entity to ever win TWO matches.*

*Don't call me out on this, I'm too lazy to actually check.


Doesn't mean that RE4 characters are worth crap in the day just because they're better then utter crap.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2009 8:08:26 AM | message detail
Probably because RE4 already had a lead on TP and it will probably lose any kind of lead against TP with the ASV.

I am still a believer in KHII actually weakening TP's ASV, making a comeback on RE4 even harder.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/22/2009 8:08:57 AM | message detail
But you do have to be utter crap to lose 2000+ votes in the ASV to anything.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:09:08 AM | message detail
...TP is going to easily comeback from like 200 or so votes it may be up. The real match will be RE4 vs KH2
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/22/2009 8:11:26 AM | message detail
TP could have OoT in this poll with it, and if it were within 200 or so votes going into the ASV I'd take it to easily pass RE4.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:12:18 AM | message detail
I am still a believer in KHII actually weakening TP's ASV, making a comeback on RE4 even harder.

No relative to KHII TP won't go up, but to RE4 it will. It's just that RE4 and HL2 will fall harder. See Diablo II a few matches ago.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:13:01 AM | message detail
Would you consider Squall to have an utter crap ASV? Since if Squall was up by 2000 going into the ASV, Sora would have easily won.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/22/2009 8:14:52 AM | message detail
Uhh..ermm....(well then)...

You know what? Yes, yes I would. Clearly Leon Leonhart got SFFed among the kiddies.

(hey Smurf, do you think he bought it?)
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:15:41 AM | message detail
Would you consider Squall to have an utter crap ASV? Since if Squall was up by 2000 going into the ASV, Sora would have easily won.

Squall was up by 2300 and still won by 900.

I can play this game too.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2009 8:16:00 AM | message detail
TP is trying to fight back with the DSV, a time period it sucks at. Strange trends.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/22/2009 8:16:12 AM | message detail
*listens to music from Zero Wing*

The Biggest. Game. Ever. is currently in the lead, but the Biggest. Adrenaline Rush. Ever. isn't that far behind.

Hopefully Resident Evil 4 comes back; it doesn't deserve to lose like this. The two best games out of the century taken out in one fell swoop? GameFAQs = Squintendo fanboys. Both of the companies newest hits can't really compare with their older ones, but that just makes GameFAQs stuck with 5th gen games and unable to accept new types of gameplay(unless its a unique fighting game with Nintendo characters).
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 8:16:49 AM | message detail
3 successive update wins by TP, it doesn't want to hand that lead back.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:18:00 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #369
Would you consider Squall to have an utter crap ASV? Since if Squall was up by 2000 going into the ASV, Sora would have easily won.

Squall was up by 2300 and still won by 900.

I can play this game too.


That was also a weird match where both were being sff'd hard, which is likely to screw up trends
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/22/2009 8:18:26 AM | message detail
Why is it that every game I've beaten has to come and impress this round?
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 8:19:18 AM | message detail
How does someone who spends more time in the stats topic than anyone still suck so bad at reading into stats? seriously.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:19:23 AM | message detail
Not to mention at the low percentages they were at, 2300 is more like 4000 for the previous match
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/22/2009 8:19:51 AM | message detail
RE4 is not the biggest adrenaline rush ever. I mean it's up there, but RE4 is no Devil May Cry 3.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:20:11 AM | message detail
That was also a weird match where both were being sff'd hard, which is likely to screw up trends

Ah, so you agree that SFF matches screw up trends thus making Sora/Squall useless. Remember SFF matches tend to be affected by variations a lot more than normal matches.

Good day sir.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/22/2009 8:20:37 AM | message detail
_Smurf_, I didn't get a word that you posted. Or was that not about me?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:21:34 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #378
That was also a weird match where both were being sff'd hard, which is likely to screw up trends

Ah, so you agree that SFF matches screw up trends thus making Sora/Squall useless. Remember SFF matches tend to be affected by variations a lot more than normal matches.

Good day sir.


Cloud was SFFing them both to the ground, taking all their votes. Two games/characters of pretty clsoe strength don't have much trend difference if they are of the same fanbase. Regardless even then, Sora still cut 1400 when they were both around 15%
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:23:36 AM | message detail
If RE4 is able to get 2000 before the asv, I will say its likely to win. But anything less, KH2 is in it without question.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 8:23:57 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #379
_Smurf_, I didn't get a word that you posted. Or was that not about me?


Aimed at albion my man, ignore that!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2009 8:24:12 AM | message detail
That was also a weird match where both were being sff'd hard, which is likely to screw up trends

Sora wasn't being SFFed by Squall. They have two totally different fanbases. Sora is fueled by the kiddie votes, but not Squall. Also, if you are SFFing your opponent, you don't let your opponent cut off hundreds of votes from your lead during the ASV, which is what Sora was doing to Squall.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:24:47 AM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #383
That was also a weird match where both were being sff'd hard, which is likely to screw up trends

Sora wasn't being SFFed by Squall. They have two totally different fanbases. Sora is fueled by the kiddie votes, but not Squall. Also, if you are SFFing your opponent, you don't let your opponent cut off hundreds of votes from your lead during the ASV, which is what Sora was doing to Squall.


I meant Cloud was beating them both down with SFF.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:24:57 AM | message detail
Cloud was SFFing them both to the ground, taking all their votes. Two games/characters of pretty clsoe strength don't have much trend difference if they are of the same fanbase. Regardless even then, Sora still cut 1400 when they were both around 15%

Which is fine except that RE4/Leon's ASV is much better than Squall's.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:25:55 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #385
Cloud was SFFing them both to the ground, taking all their votes. Two games/characters of pretty clsoe strength don't have much trend difference if they are of the same fanbase. Regardless even then, Sora still cut 1400 when they were both around 15%

Which is fine except that RE4/Leon's ASV is much better than Squall's.


Do we have any proof it is? I find it hard to believe.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:26:12 AM | message detail
Cloud/Squall/Sora all have overlap with each other or else Sora would have easily defeated Squall.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/22/2009 8:26:14 AM | message detail
2000 votes? Are you insane? 2000 votes would be a tall order for Sora vs. Frog. KHII vs. something with a half-decent day vote? No.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:26:59 AM | message detail
Do we have any proof it is? I find it hard to believe.

FF tend to have terrible ASV while RE4 isn't that bad.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2009 8:27:12 AM | message detail
I meant Cloud was beating them both down with SFF.

Thought you meant the round 2 match, that had Fox and Yoshi. Either way, Sora was still making a comeback on Squall in both matches in the ASV.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/22/2009 8:27:35 AM | message detail
Uhh...KP?

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2865&num=4
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/22/2009 8:27:46 AM | message detail
I was worried for RE4 a little bit not too long ago, but not so much anymore. KH2 would need a miracle to come back from 2000+ votes against a game with Nintendo-like trends.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 8:27:52 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #388
2000 votes? Are you insane? 2000 votes would be a tall order for Sora vs. Frog. KHII vs. something with a half-decent day vote? No.


As I posted earlier, Riku vs. Leon swung 2.5% percentage in the ASV. Right now, that would give KH2 the win, evne though RE4 is likely to make a bigger percentage chance by the ASV. Its still a match whether all of you want to refuse to admit it or not.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 8:30:35 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #392
I was worried for RE4 a little bit not too long ago, but not so much anymore. KH2 would need a miracle to come back from 2000+ votes against a game with Nintendo-like trends.


From: UltimaterializerX | #341
KH2 has a decent chance at coming back, but it needs RE4 to be a quasi-Nintendo title to do so. If TP murders RE4's after school vote, who knows.


From: UltimaterializerX | #295
It's still quite possible RE4 finishes in third place here. Resident Evil has a horrible day vote, and I'm still calling RE4 quasi-Nintendo. If it gets leeched by Twilight Princess too much, KH2 has an outside chance.




ok Ulti we get it. You think Resi 4 has a Nintendo overlap, jeesh. <_<

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:30:38 AM | message detail
I was worried for RE4 a little bit not too long ago, but not so much anymore. KH2 would need a miracle to come back from 2000+ votes against a game with Nintendo-like trends.

Same here after the first hour I thought RE4 would easily have a 2000+ lead on KHII by morning, but now it's looking good plus it has 3.5 hours before the ASV.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 8:31:58 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #388
2000 votes? Are you insane? 2000 votes would be a tall order for Sora vs. Frog. KHII vs. something with a half-decent day vote? No.


Your common sense and logic have no place here, begone! Half Life to win the next update by 4350 votes in 5...4..
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/22/2009 8:32:32 AM | message detail
*looks back at the past few pages*

geez i hate you guys

TP has this match pretty much locked up if it's still gaining in the DSV. KH2 will trim the gap, but RE4 looks very safe for second. My bracket rejoices.
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Match 46 - Bracket: TP > RE4 - Vote: RE4 (155/232)
consolefreak | Posted 5/22/2009 8:32:43 AM | message detail
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 8:34:51 AM | message detail
RE4 is making some nice gains now and it should be in the clear. Smurf you are exaggerating like a little ***** though. Seriously.

Not really, I think he's tired that some people think KH's ASV is a tier above Halo and Melee's.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/22/2009 8:37:51 AM | message detail
Has Melee had a good ASV this contest?
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