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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 723

charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:05:13 AM | message detail
Hopefully I can get my first right match since FFVII > GE.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 6:23:01 AM | message detail
RE4 only up by 1150 or so? KH2 has this.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/22/2009 6:27:22 AM | message detail
'Only?' Did we forget how KHII cut a grand total of 500 votes off of RE4 last match?

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 6:28:46 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #303
'Only?' Did we forget how KHII cut a grand total of 500 votes off of RE4 last match?


weekend match
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 6:30:02 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3488&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

RE4 is gonna need 2k lead going into the ASV to be safe here
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/22/2009 6:30:54 AM | message detail
Doesn't matter if it was a weekend match. The trends aren't that different when looked at from a 24-hour period, and RE4 has a decent day vote. KHII is done.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:30:58 AM | message detail
By the ASV RE4 will have 1500-2000 vote lead. Last round's results may be pretty accurate by the end of this.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 6:32:25 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #306
Doesn't matter if it was a weekend match. The trends aren't that different when looked at from a 24-hour period, and RE4 has a decent day vote. KHII is done.


If it makes you feel better thinking kids are gonna vote for RE4 over KH2 in the ASV, go for it!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:34:53 AM | message detail
All right, RE4 should be safe for second if it can take advantage of the DSV, which it usually does.

Just a few days ago we saw KH get a bit shy of 47% on FFX; the sequel is currently doing a bit better and probably ends up between 47% and 48% on TP. Pretty good performance for TP.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:36:29 AM | message detail
The weekend day vote is basically the BSV, DSV and ASV combined into one. At this time last round RE4 had a lead of 1100 votes and ended with 700. I'm pretty sure that's going to be the end result though instead of seeing KHII cutting all day we'll see RE4 rise a bit with KHII gaining a lot faster during the ASV.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
consolefreak | Posted 5/22/2009 6:37:33 AM | message detail
I wouldn't go as far as calling KH2 the favourite at this point, but RE4 definitely isn't out of the woods just yet.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 6:39:31 AM | message detail
If KH2 cant turn around 1500 in the ASV against a Resident Evil game, then its ASV sucks

plain and simple. And we know its asv doesn't suck, so...
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Meeks54 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:40:43 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #312
If KH2 cant turn around 1500 in the ASV against a Resident Evil game, then its ASV sucks

plain and simple. And we know its asv doesn't suck, so...




If this was one on one yes.
If this was a different type of 4-way right now....yes.

But Zelda is in the poll, that is going to really dilute it's ASV.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 6:42:02 AM | message detail
I don't see how a game with a different fanbase (nintendo vs square) should hurt its asv one bit
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consolefreak | Posted 5/22/2009 6:42:21 AM | message detail
KH's trends were stifled because the match was held on a weekend (yes, the result would've been exactly the same if the match had been held on a weekday, but it's possible RE4 could've built a lead of around 3000 then before the ASV).

Let's not forget KH cut FFX by around 500 votes after being down worse than 45% to 55%. RE4's no FFX with the day vote, but KH's percentage is already nearing 48%. This could be interesting.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino
charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:44:25 AM | message detail
If KH2 cant turn around 1500 in the ASV against a Resident Evil game, then its ASV sucks

Yawn, RE4 does not have exact RE trends and you know that.

Besides KH's day vote is a bit overrated. Look at me I can crush such opponents with the ASV such as Agent 47, Alucard, 2005 Solid Snake, Freeman, Lara Croft, Aeris, Squall. It can hold its own pretty well, but we've inflated it because Sora has had terrible ASV opponents.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 6:44:56 AM | message detail
3 straight cuts for KH2. We might not even get to 1500-2000 by the asv afterall!
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:46:12 AM | message detail
Or maybe the kiddies in Western NA are waking up?
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 6:47:31 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #318
Or maybe the kiddies in Western NA are waking up?


KH doesn't have a good morning vote.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3488&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

If RE4 is being cut by KH now, imagine how bad its gonna be in the asv.
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consolefreak | Posted 5/22/2009 6:47:40 AM | message detail
But Zelda is in the poll, that is going to really dilute it's ASV.

This is a completely void argument.. The only effect Zelda has is that because of it (and HL2) KH has to work with half the votes and thus RE's lead is already 2000+ in a 1-1.

Zelda has no disproportionate effect though. KH's day vote is the best out there, RE4's is so-so. The effect of Zelda's great day vote is that it will indeed weaken KH's absolute percentage increase, but at the same time it will make RE4 crash all the more. The relative comeback from KH to RE is not affected at all.


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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino
charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:49:11 AM | message detail
KH doesn't have a good morning vote.

Better than the night vote.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
consolefreak | Posted 5/22/2009 6:49:55 AM | message detail
Besides KH's day vote is a bit overrated. Look at me I can crush such opponents with the ASV such as Agent 47, Alucard, 2005 Solid Snake, Freeman, Lara Croft, Aeris, Squall. It can hold its own pretty well, but we've inflated it because Sora has had terrible ASV opponents.

No. KH's ASV is the single best out there. What Axel did VS Frog (admittedly, CT probably had the single worst ASV at that time) was insane, considering their extremely low percentages. I'd put some cash on Sora > MC with the ASV.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 6:50:49 AM | message detail
sora cut like 1500 from squall when it was 4200 down

thats an insane asv anyway you wanna cut it
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:51:52 AM | message detail
Again it's good, but it isn't another tier above the best like some people argue.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2009 6:56:00 AM | message detail
Wow, TP isn't slowing down even though we are almost 1 hour into the DSV and RE4 isn't picking up steam with this time period yet.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 6:57:57 AM | message detail
KH is done, if it can't even stall in the morning it's not going to making the massive cuts it needs to catch up.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 6:59:11 AM | message detail
The true DSV doesn't begin for another hour or so since us here in the west coast still haven't awaken let alone gone to school.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2009 6:59:50 AM | message detail
Well, there's RE4's first cut on TP in almost 2 hours now.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 7:00:03 AM | message detail
KH is done, if it can't even stall in the morning it's not going to making the massive cuts it needs to catch up.

It's been stalling for almost 30 minutes now.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 7:00:05 AM | message detail

From: __Smurf__ | #326
KH is done, if it can't even stall in the morning it's not going to making the massive cuts it needs to catch up.


Why don't people realize KH isn't even above average at morning? =\
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 7:05:05 AM | message detail
KH2 cut about 50 last 2 updates

here we go ... !
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ShatteredElysium | Posted 5/22/2009 7:09:13 AM | message detail
That was a huge drop off by RE4. It almost lost an update to HL2...
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 7:15:08 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3270&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

This match may give us an indication of the trends to expect
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 7:16:01 AM | message detail
KH is fine in the morning, Resident Evil is probably worse than it. What I'm saying is that KH will win the ASV but it's not going to go from losing every other time segment to Resi to pulling around 55% with the ASV, which is what it needs.

Also Resi 4 is up 200 votes on where it was last round at this time, at it still won by over 700 votes. Comeback ain't happening.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 7:17:12 AM | message detail
Also Resi 4 is up 200 votes on where it was last round at this time, at it still won by over 700 votes. Comeback ain't happening.

was a weekend
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 7:21:47 AM | message detail
That's really insignificant at this point of the poll to the outcome since a night vote is a night vote regardless of time of the week. And also Resi is known for a strong DSV just as KH is known for a strong ASV.

I swear you're as bad as Lopen if you think anything is going to happen here. -_-
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 7:24:16 AM | message detail
As I said earlier.

If KH2 can't cut 1500 from a Resident Evil game in the asv, it isn't a good asv game.

And we know thats not true. If it fails to win here, KH should lose its ASV crown.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 7:28:52 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #337
If KH2 can't cut 1500 from a Resident Evil game in the asv, it isn't a good asv game.


o_0

First of all do you even understand how proportion works, you're measuring a games ASV ability by an arbitrary number and then there's the nintendo game in the poll lapping up the day vote and the fact that Resi 4 has never been bad with the ASV and... I don't even know where to begin to correct you on this.

Dude, you're blowing my mind with ridiculous comments here, I haven't felt this baffled with a CS&D comment since before I had Black Turtle on ignore. >_<

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 7:32:25 AM | message detail
re4 should have no better of an asv then squall, and sora cut 1500 WHEN DOWN BY 4200

nothing we've seen regarding leon makes me think it is very good at the asv at all
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 7:37:46 AM | message detail
That happened one time, a round later he cut nothing at all from Squall. Why? I don't know, but comebacks on that scale against moderately decent day opposition are the exception and not the rule for KH.

Besides, RE4 will be way over 1500 ahead by the time the DSV is done. KH2 will be put to bed before it has a chance to come back.


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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/22/2009 7:38:48 AM | message detail
KH2 has a decent chance at coming back, but it needs RE4 to be a quasi-Nintendo title to do so. If TP murders RE4's after school vote, who knows.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 7:38:59 AM | message detail
RE4 should probably take the lead again soon, maybe build it a bit before TP settles this once and for all come the ASV.
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Smurf
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 7:42:03 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #341
KH2 has a decent chance at coming back


It'd have a slight chance if the ASV begun right now, Resi could be 2000 votes clear when that arises. This match is long over.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 7:44:50 AM | message detail
smurf, if these trends hold up: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3270&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

Are you honestly saying we can't see a comeback?
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 7:50:02 AM | message detail
Oh KH will cut votes at some point no doubt, but it's not going to be doing nearly enough to challenge for a top two place. I'd expect 800 votes behind to be its ceiling and that's being really generous to it, what I expect is for it to be 2000 votes down coming into the ASV and pick off a few hundred.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 7:51:55 AM | message detail
For Leon vs. Riku, Leon dropped 1% from the ASV and Riku gained about 1.5%, and Riku is prolly the worst we'll see cuz his ASV is typically the floor of KH games (Axel and Sora blow his out of the water). Going by those, it could overturn into a KH win right now, but RE will likely get a bigger percentage lead by the ASV. Still, ti should be a good ASV and its anybodys ball game
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/22/2009 7:53:31 AM | message detail
Or maybe because Riku has mostly gone up against characters with a good ASV.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
KingBartz | Posted 5/22/2009 7:54:51 AM | message detail
nice cut right there. RE4 is not giving up without a fight.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/22/2009 7:55:24 AM | message detail
more fun with KH vs. RE!

http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/3/3f/Graph2502.png
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/22/2009 7:59:01 AM | message detail
Resi 4 has entirely different trends to the older Resi games. Claire, Jill etc are pure night crawlers and die when the sun rises. I remember even Sheena had some fun with Jill when the sun rose. Leon has always been solid during the day time, not spectacular but he certainly won't collapse like the other Resi characters would.
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